NYRcupboundyessir*
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but the Rangers have been substantially lucky on their shooting success
Lol at these people ^. The denial is strong. We ARE the hockey team everyone WISHES their team was
You will learn
but the Rangers have been substantially lucky on their shooting success
I despise everything about the Rangers and acknowledge that they're definitely due to regress towards league averages, but I find advanced statistics mostly tedious and pine for the days when hockey talk consisted only of what we witness on ice.
FMASC knows his ****, though.
Also makes it a lot easier to search for stats, angles, and information that support a bias. They call it confirmation bias for a reason. Objective analysis is one of the hardest things for someone to do, especially in sports.
And you think Ranger fans are experts at this?
And you think Ranger fans are experts at this?
Lol at these people ^. The denial is strong. We ARE the hockey team everyone WISHES their team was
You will learn
Unless you believe that this year's Rangers team is the best team in the modern era at creating scoring chances, their goals will come down drastically.
ES Shooting Percentage Leaders:
15-16: NY Rangers (9.0%)
14-15: Tampa Bay (9.0%)
13-14: Anaheim (9.8%)
12-13: Toronto (10.6%) - 48 game season with higher variance due to small sample
11-12: Tampa Bay (9.7%)
10-11: Dallas (8.7%)
09-10: Washington (10.4%)
08-09: Pittsburgh (9.8%)
07-08: Ottawa (9.0%)
Average of 9.6%. The only two seasons with teams above 10.0% were the lockout shortened season and the ridiculous 2010 Capitals team.
The Rangers are at 13.0% right now. Teams simply cannot sustain even close to that in the NHL. Adjusting 13.0% down to 9.0%, while holding shots constant, results in a 31% goal reduction.
But this is also such a straw man comment. My comment was directed at his particular use of statistics.
His statistics seem pretty objective and straightforward here. And most Rangers fans have conceded as much.
His statistics seem pretty objective and straightforward here. And most Rangers fans have conceded as much.
Lol at these people ^. The denial is strong. We ARE the hockey team everyone WISHES their team was
You will learn
Rangers (at 5v5) have been trending poorly when it comes to overall CF%/FF%, but their xGF% and SCF% have consistently been among the best in the league. Very confusing early season stats-wise for the Rangers.
Why aren't they a true talent 13% shooting team? Because they're not your favorite team?
Looks like you attended the Machinehead school of analytics.
They're 7th in CF% close so far this season.
Also makes it a lot easier to search for stats, angles, and information that support a bias. They call it confirmation bias for a reason. Objective analysis is one of the hardest things for someone to do, especially in sports.
It's why when people cite PDO (which might be the most flawed and least telling of all the advanced stats) and straight up CF% without looking at other numbers for context I get annoyed.
IMO xGF% and SCF% are better indicators of a good team than straight up CF% is. CF% is a very good stat at tracking trends but it has its flaws. Too many people on here and on twitter use CF% as the be all end all without providing context.
Mike Sullivan had that great quote that circulated a few days ago where he gave a nice long answer to a question about shot attempts and scoring chances. He basically said that scoring chances are the most important thing.
It makes sense if you boil it down. If your team is far out chancing the other team, why would the amount of shots attempts outweigh that? If the point of determining a chance is to separate a puck that could go in from simply a statistically harmless shot, shouldn't we value that stat (xGF% and SCF%) more?
It's why when people cite PDO (which might be the most flawed and least telling of all the advanced stats) and straight up CF% without looking at other numbers for context I get annoyed.
Last year's Rangers team had bad CF%, high PDO, very low SCF% and xGF% and very bad SCA%. That team got by on unsustainable goaltending (even for Hank) and crazy high shooting %. I don't see it as a comparable to this year's team mainly because of the scoring chance numbers. Last year's team would generate very low amount of chances but convert a bunch of them and then clench their butts while Hank put on a show. Obviously the bottom fell out there as we all could see coming.
This year's team is different. I'm not saying they're going to win the cup or anything, but it's different. The eye test is much improved, the systemplay has been better. Younger players like Miller and Hayes have taken the next step. Rolling 4 skill lines has been a revelation. Then looking at the numbers, generating top 5 in the league amount of chances.
People keep citing SH% as a reason for the bottom falling out eventually, I'm not so sure. While I do think the SH% will drop, I don't think that when it does that spells the end for the Rangers being good. There has to be some correlation between SCF% and SH% right? It's not like the Rangers are bottom of the league in SCF% and top of the league in SH%.
Also, do you take into account that their % will stay where it is or rise when they get Kreider and a healthy Buchnevich back in the lineup?
Both have been hurting for weeks- even though Buchnevich looked great recently (maybe a Cortison shot that is no longer helping.)
2 top 6 forwards that have been in/out of lineup.