Jack Hughes has become a household name among NHL fans, but a phenomenal Finnish superstar named Kaapo Kakko is already putting doubt in the minds of scouts about whether or not Hughes will be drafted first overall in 2019.
Kaapo Kakko, a 6'1'', 185 lbs power playmaker whose game has been compared by some to Peter Forsberg's, has dominated Finland's top professional league, Liiga, so far this year. This is the same league that Alexander Barkov, Mikael Granlund, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi were drafted from. Out of those players and other Finnish prospects of recent years, some scouts have called Kakko the best since Barkov.
Future Considerations' head of European scouting, Dennis Schellenberg, as well as the service's Finland-based scout, Toni Rajamäki, have been amazed by the special play of Kakko this season:
Kakko looking capable of joining elite draft company • FC Hockey
Kakko looking capable of joining elite draft company
Derek Neumeier
October 4, 2018
Kaapo Kakko is ready to push.
There is widespread consensus within the scouting community that Jack Hughes is the early, clear frontrunner to be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, but the supremely talented Finnish winger is poised to ensure that whatever team ends up holding that top pick will have a difficult decision.
After all, any time a prospect is scoring at a pace that surpasses what elite NHLers such as Aleksander Barkov and Patrik Laine did in the same league at the same age, it’s impossible not take close notice.
Kakko’s start to the 2018-19 season in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, has been stellar to say the least, with seven points in his first eight games. Should he continue that near point-per-game pace throughout the season, he would eclipse what Barkov (48 points in 53 games) and Laine (33 points in 46 games) did in their draft seasons.
“Kakko has been outstanding in nearly every game I’ve seen him in,” said Dennis Schellenberg, Future Considerations’ head of European scouting.
“Great vision and very good in tight spaces. An overall powerful skater with great top speed. Kakko combines skill, strength and hockey sense, making him another top prospect out of Finland.”
...
“Kakko’s start to the season has been quite amazing since he has been one of the best players in the whole league,” said Finland-based Future Considerations scout Toni Rajamäki. “And that’s quite impressive for a guy this age.”
Kakko doesn’t turn 18 until mid-February.
“He has tremendous vision and great puck skills,” Rajamäki said. “He likes to use his size and he can be a really effective player in the corners since he handles the puck well in small places and knows how to protect it.”
He scored 10 points in seven games at the 2018 IIHF World Under-18 Championship back in April, playing a key role in helping Finland win gold. Despite being a year younger than most of the competition, Kakko was one of the tournament’s best players.
While Hughes is still the undisputed jewel of the 2019 class, does Kakko have the potential to unseat him from that perch?
Some of those who’ve watched him the closest believe so.
“If he’s going to continue to play in this fashion for the rest of the season, don’t be surprised if his name pops up in the first overall discussion,” Schellenberg said.
...
Kakko is set to add some attention to the top of the 2019 draft class.
“I think he can challenge Jack Hughes in the fight for the first spot,” Rajamäki added.
"Kakko has been outstanding in nearly every game I’ve seen him in... Great vision and very good in tight spaces. An overall powerful skater with great top speed... If he’s going to continue to play in this fashion for the rest of the season, don’t be surprised if his name pops up in the first overall discussion." - Dennis Schellenberg, Future Considerations' Head of European Scouting, Oct. 2018
“Kakko’s start to the season has been quite amazing since he has been one of the best players in the whole league. And that’s quite impressive for a guy this age... I think he can challenge Jack Hughes in the fight for the first spot.” - Toni Rajamaki, Future Considerations Scout, Oct. 2018
Meanwhile, here is the latest publication by Larry Fisher, scout and writer for
The Hockey Writers:
https://thehockeywriters.com/2019-nhl-draft-rankings-october/
2019 NHL Draft: Fisher’s Top 124 for October
By Larry Fisher October 9th, 2018
Could we have a two-horse race developing for first overall in 2019?
Dare I say three? Four? Five?
Don’t get me wrong, Jack Hughes is still the frontrunner and may very well go wire-to-wire as No. 1, but I’m sensing some serious challengers.
A “Big Five” is emerging amongst the top forwards and that order could certainly change between now and June. The order of those five remained the same in my rankings from August to October, but the gaps do seem to be narrowing.
Kaapo Kakko is gaining ground on Hughes and may be closer to him than Patrik Laine was to Auston Matthews at this point in their 2016 draft year.
The fact Hughes didn’t up his level of competition the way Matthews did — staying at the U.S. National Team Development Program instead of going overseas to play pro if college wasn’t an option — could hinder Hughes to some degree while opening the door for Kakko and others.
The others — in the “Big Five” — being Vasili Podkolzin, Kirby Dach and Dylan Cozens.
...
"Don’t get me wrong, Jack Hughes is still the frontrunner... but I’m sensing some serious challengers. A 'Big Five' is emerging... Kaapo Kakko is gaining ground on Hughes and may be closer to him than Patrik Laine was to Auston Matthews at this point in their 2016 draft year." - Larry Fisher, The Hockey Writers, Oct. 2018
Others have noted that Hughes, while a flashy player, is not a very defensively-responsible player at all. In fact, he is the type of player who takes risks to generate offense. Here is the opinion of draft analytics researcher @Scouching.
Cam Robinson of Dobber Prospects had an exchange with @Scouting today. While Hughes is talented, his decision-making can be placed into question sometimes.
Will Scouch on Twitter
Will Scouch @Scouching
I'd need to dig in, but I'd leave Honka out of that group. It's still early, but there's a crop separating themselves on my sheet of Kakko, Dach, Suzuki, Krebs, and Kaliyev. Hughes has been underwhelming. Cozens is up there too. Thomas Harley and Dillon Hamaliuk as well so far.
10:17 AM - 15 Oct 2018
Will Scouch on Twitter
Will Scouch @Scouching
I've been watching quite a few NTDP games already this year, and I absolutely am not saying he's not going #1, but he's made some awful awful decisions on top of him being ridiculously good.
10:24 AM - 15 Oct 2018
/Cam Robinson/ on Twitter
/Cam Robinson/ @Hockey_Robinson
He hasn’t been the superhero many expected but still so dynamic. I can’t help but think the QoC plays a role though. It’s a shame he couldn’t have jumped up.
10:28 AM - 15 Oct 2018
Some examples of questionable defensive plays by Hughes, as highlighted by @Scouching:
Will Scouch on Twitter: "Pardon the janky video, but between Matt Boldy (9), and Hughes (6), what happened here? They're on the PP during this, mind you." (VIDEO) - 7:01 PM - 14 Oct 2018
Will Scouch on Twitter: "Want another one? Here's another one. Same game. Forgivably loses possession in the NZ, drops back, is given the puck, gets hemmed in, falls down and it could've been much worse." (VIDEO) - 7:11 PM - 14 Oct 2018
Robinson suggests that the lack of challenge (Quality of Competition) is allowing Hughes' game to slip.
However, the fact that Hughes isn't lighting up the stat sheet at anywhere near the rate that was expected of him leads me to think there's more to it than the league being "too easy." If he was torching the league and cheating defensively, that would be a different story; his numbers, on the contrary, are disappointing so far.
To cast further doubts about Jack Hughes, his production so far this year has been disappointing. Currently, Hughes has 2 goals, 11 points in 8 games in his D+0 season with the U18 USNTDP. The most successful D+0 season ever by a player with the U18 team was Clayton Keller with 37 goals, 107 points in 62 games in 2015-16.
Kaapo Kakko, on the other hand, has been a dominant force in Liiga, with 9 points in 12 games against Finland's top professional players. To compare, Patrik Laine had 33 points in 46 games in his draft year. Alexander Barkov scored 48 points in 53 games in his draft season. The Liiga season is 60 games in length, and generally the top scorer averages 60 points in 60 games. Kakko is 17 years old and the best player on his Liiga team, TPS Turku.
Hughes is 5'10'', 165 lbs, and currently plays a risky style of game. Skill-wise, he and Kakko are quite similar. Their puck skills belong in the top tier of this draft class. However, Kakko plays a much more powerful game with exceptional balance, agility, strength, and aggressiveness -- a Forsberg-esque game of shiftiness along the boards, power, and elegance with the puck. Hughes plays a high-tempo game but tends to shy away from contact and has an underwhelming shot, hence he is mostly a speedy playmaker.
To complicate things further, the Finnish national program intends to have Kakko be a centerman, a position that he has played before and can adapt to at the professional level. Hughes, at 5'10'', 165 lbs, meanwhile, faces some of the same questions about playing center as Mitch Marner and Clayton Keller did -- both play wing at the NHL level.
FinnProspects on Twitter: "Kaapo Kakko about playing center in an Finnish newspaper interview: "I've played center previously in juniors and a few games in the national team as well. But I'm fine with playing in the wing now." National team coach Jukka Jalonen would also like to see Kakko playing center."
On Kaapo Kakko, what we should expect from him in 2018-19, and the difference between him and Jack Hughes - DraftGeek
]On Kaapo Kakko, what we should expect from him in 2018-19, and the difference between him and Jack Hughes
September 22, 2018 | NHL Draft | Sam Happi
...
So What Seperates Kakko From Jack Hughes?
Not as much as you might think. Hughes is an incredibly intelligent playmaker that’s a constant threat, but Kakko is insanely talented himself. The Finn utilizes his body exceptionally well, using his frame and reach to protect the puck. He can slice through a defence this way, identifying holes and slicing through them, using that puck protection to prevent defenders from even having a chance at a poke check. His intelligence and hands shine whenever he possesses the puck, and knocking him off of it is no easy feat.
Barring a surprising demotion, Kakko will spend his 2018-19 season in the Finnish professional league.
Jack Hughes, meanwhile, will play for the USNTDP U18 program, where the level of play is criminally lower than his skill level. It’s possible that his play becomes somewhat stagnant there, because he won’t ever be facing anybody that can challenge his level of talent.
If Kakko does well in the Liiga, that could be the straw that works against Hughes, and could be responsible for him falling out of the #1 position. Kakko will have proven himself against men, whereas the highlight of Hughes’ resume will only feature domination of weak competition.
For reference, the NHLe league translation factor for the Liiga is over 6 and a half times that of the USNTDP
....
"Barring a surprising demotion, Kakko will spend his 2018-19 season in the Finnish professional league. Jack Hughes, meanwhile, will play for the USNTDP U18 program, where the level of play is criminally lower than his skill level... If Kakko does well in the Liiga, that could be the straw that works against Hughes, and could be responsible for him falling out of the #1 position.
Kakko will have proven himself against men, whereas the highlight of Hughes’ resume will only feature domination of weak competition. For reference, the NHLe league translation factor for the Liiga is over 6 and a half times that of the USNTDP." - Sam Happi, DraftGeek.com, Sept. 2018
Nick Kypreos stated today, during his analysis of the Elias Pettersson incident, that there is an "internal debate" happening with regards to whether Jack Hughes should play in the NHL next season.
Is A Two Game Suspension Enough For Mike Matheson’s Hit On Elias Pettersson?| Tim and Sid
Joe Marino on Twitter
Joe Marino @JoeTCBNHL
“There’s some internal debate with Jack Hughes on whether or not he’s gonna play next year (in the NHL)” -Nick Kypreos
9:11 PM - 15 Oct 2018
There is already a debate about which player should be selected first overall, as Kakko is rising and Hughes is falling. With the 2019 World Junior Championships in Vancouver likely being a pivotal point in this debate, there could be a new first-overall favorite by the start of the new year.