Blade Paradigm
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- Oct 21, 2017
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Update: This is an updated version of this OP, circa March 17, 2019. It includes a 14-minute highlight reel from his 2018-19 Liiga season featuring over 60 plays, including all of his goals and assists. Here is an archived version of this thread with the last update being in mid-October: I May Be In The Minority . . . But I Believe That Kaapo Kakko Could Be Selected 1st Overall in 2019
After Rasmus Dahlin went all season last year as the consensus first-overall 2018 NHL Draft choice, it is quite obvious that sometimes players are too far ahead of their peers to be caught. For a while, it seemed that Jack Hughes would be a similarly advanced player whose status as his year's first-overall pick would be unchallenged.
However, having studied many of the forwards touted as current first-round selections, I have come to the conclusion that Jack Hughes isn't that far ahead of the couple of players in the next-highest tier and that the 6'1'' 180 lbs Finnish forward, Kaapo Kakko of Liiga's TPS Turku, has great potential to eclipse Hughes. Liiga is the Finnish Elite League, the highest level of professional men's hockey in Finland. Kakko plays on TPS' first line, a mighty task for a 17-year-old.
Kaapo Kakko is a European-style power playmaker whose combination of elusiveness, puck skills, and puck protection abilities make him a phenom worth paying close attention to. His puck skills are among the very best of the 2019 draft class, but even more importantly, his hockey IQ is incredibly high -- his patience and creativity with the puck and on his skates, and his smart, aggressive positioning on the forecheck allow him to be a constant offensive threat and a reliable defensive player. He may not overwhelm the opposition with brute north-south strength, speed or physicality, but has the size, balance, agility, and puck skills to protect the puck and maneuver with it in tight spaces -- a graceful combination of finesse, mobility, and strength. Kakko is very agile and fluid on his skates, and is an east-west player who can pivot back-and-forth very quickly along the boards, shield the puck with his body, and rag the puck around; he is a puck hound with the mobility to cover quite a bit of ground and forecheck very effectively. He has a great, albeit underutilized release, has quick hands and excellent stick handling ability, sees the ice very well, and can change directions quickly to take the puck into the middle to score. He has the ability to fake one way then swivel in another direction seamlessly, making him very difficult to contain. He's also a great playmaker who makes crisp passes and makes difficult passes look easy. He's powerful, elusive, and intelligent. One might describe him as an agile power winger and a puck magnet.
Updated annotation (March 17, 2019): Here is a 14-minute highlight reel featuring 60+ plays from Kakko's 2018-19 Liiga season including all of his goals and assists:
Original post continued:
Having watched both Jack Hughes and Kakko quite closely and now comparing their development, tendencies, strengths, deficiencies, and styles of play, I have found Kakko to be the more appealing prospect of the two. This is solidified by Kakko's fiery start to his 2018-19 campaign on TPS' top line. He has played in several Champions Hockey League against teams from other European adult leagues, and has been one of TPS' top players every single game, dominating at times. He plays on their first line, and averages 18 minutes per game. For a 17-year-old to lead a Finnish Elite League team on the ice is an outstanding achievement.
Updated annotation (March 17, 2019): He finished his draft season in Liiga with 22 goals, 38 points in 45 games. This is a points-per-game average of 0.84. He also broke the record for most goals scored by a U18 player in a Liiga season previously held by Alexander Barkov (21 goals).
Original post continued:
Hughes and Kakko separate themselves from the rest of the pack because of their combination of high hockey IQ, ability to always involve themselves in the play, ability to anticipate plays well, as well as their elite stickhandling abilities, and excellent skating. No other player besides these two has such an ideal package of talents and abilities to elevate them into this very exclusive category in 2019. However, while I like both players very much, Hughes possesses some deficiencies that I do not see in Kakko's game.
Although Jack Hughes is a superbly talented stick handler and a very shifty skater, I find that he tries to avoid contact whenever he carries the puck; when he skates and dekes around opposing players, he isn't pushing his way past them so much as he is trying to squeeze his body around them. There is a difference between the two, as one requires precision and no obstacles to slow one down; the other -- active, powerful maneuvering -- is to be elusive, but to be able to push past obstacles. Both players can cut around opponents and drive to the net, but Kakko has a much more powerful frame. Kakko has gained some speed this year, and is impressively agile on his skates. As a stick handler, Hughes is very poised and is always in control, but he is physically weaker on the puck than Kakko; whenever he is clipped by an opposing body, the puck starts to get away from him. Kakko, like Hughes, possesses quick hands, but controls the puck better in traffic, especially along the boards. This is aggressive maneuvering, not passive.
Hughes is a pass-first playmaker with a shot that lacks power. Like his brother's shot, Jack's shot might be his worst attribute. Kakko, on the other hand, has already exhibited one of the better wrist shots of his draft class, but is also an excellent playmaker.
Both players are agile, but Kakko benefits greatly from his puck protection skills along the boards to complement his shiftiness and make him extremely difficult to separate from the puck. Hughes does not possess particularly strong puck protection skills, despite his ability to elude opponents in close quarters.
In terms of defensive play, I consider Hughes' game to be the worst of my group of elite players. While Kakko, Turcottte, and Podkolzin are all very responsible in the defensive end, Hughes is inattentive in the defensive end and sometimes doesn't do enough to help prevent the opposition from pressuring his team. This can cause trouble.
Hughes is a very slick player. Compared to Kakko, who thrives in all areas of the ice and dominates possession, however, Hughes plays a softer game with feebler qualities. He is not quite as complete a player as Kakko is, nor is he starting to look that far ahead of Kakko offensively. Kaapo Kakko has had an excellent start to the 2018-19 season in the Finnish Elite League against adult players. The highest age group that Hughes has ever played against was at the World Junior Summer Showcase, where he looked decent.
When both players are of similar hockey IQ and puck skills, I prefer players who can overwhelm the opposition with at least some degree of strength and out-muscle them in one-on-one situations. Hughes does not possess that ability. Yes, he can be elusive, but he does not always succeed in one-on-one situations either; at the NHL level, even Connor McDavid, who could elude players without ever being touched at lower levels, must push through obstacles frequently to reach his destination. At the NHL level, defensive positioning is so much more precise than at the junior level; defenders don't often give the puck carrier much space.
I don't know if Hughes will ever be able to develop the strength to beat defenders with a combination of force and finesse. He has a small frame, and his brother's height is evidence that he might not grow too much more either.
He may be a great skater, but I also disagree with the opinion that he is a top-level skater in the NHL. Connor McDavid has the best acceleration in the NHL and excellent top speed. Jack's own brother Quinn skates better than he does, with a more explosive first step and much smoother edgework. Jack has small, quick bursts and great puck control while he is moving, but I don't think his skating is in the same category as the most elite skaters in the NHL.
I see some people call Jack Hughes the next Patrick Kane, but I do not agree with this notion. Kane is an excellent shooter with a powerful one-timer and tremendous wrist shot. Kane is a top-notch goal scorer. Hughes' shooting skills are average. Kane is, frankly, more mobile a skater than Hughes, with better edge work. Hughes is an agile skater, but not on that same elite level. Hughes has little bursts of speed to help bring him around defenders, but he doesn't have the effortless acceleration or sustained use of his edges to zip around the offensive zone the way that Kane does. He also doesn't hound the puck the way that Kane does, instead opting to distribute it at a much more frequent rate. Kane loves to hold on and make things happen independently.
A few have compared Hughes to McDavid. I think they play similar east-west games, frankly. However, McDavid has so many more tools than Hughes. If you were to take away some of the acceleration and top speed -- thus neutering his north-south game--, make McDavid three inches and thirty pounds smaller, and also take a little bit of zip off of his shot, you might get something similar to Jack.
McDavid is better defensively than Jack Hughes and has a more much complete skill set. Hughes has some of those skills, but lacks others -- especially the speed that make McDavid so special.
Not much separates the stick handling abilities of Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko; the marginal difference to me does not outweigh the much more complete skill set that Kakko offers. In terms of skating, Hughes is an agile skater, but he is not powerful nor would his skating belong in the top-tier of the NHL. Kakko provides such a mature, well-rounded, dynamic offensive game with great playmaking elements, puck protection elements, and forechecking elements.
Like Hughes, Kakko can create chances in close quarters and flex his creativity to generate chances from out of nowhere. His defensive game is better, his shot is much better, and he plays a more powerful game.
With regards to the positions they play, here has been some debate as to the suitability of Jack Hughes as an NHL center.
The type of game that Hughes plays -- quick off the rush, with puck transitional skills through the neutral zone, a finesse-based, offense-first mentality and a lack of strength-based qualities -- is much more of a playmaking winger's game than that of a high-end center. Hughes is also very small for a first-line center; centers who are 5'10'' and shorter tend to compensate for their height with a heavy, strong frame. Height is less important than weight, but height is a factor along with frame type in determining the amount of weight that a player can carry before heaviness becomes detrimental. Hughes is short with a small frame -- rare for a successful NHL center. The fact that he also isn't very good defensively suggests that he might end up as a winger in the NHL.
On the other hand, we have a small sample size of Kakko's suitability as a center, but Team Finland tried him successfully at center at the World Junior Summer Showcase. His complete game could make him a potential candidate to try at center in the future. Craig Button was convinced enough to mention in his latest Craig's List publication that Kakko can play either wing or center and possesses versatility as a forward. I feel that Craig doesn't view these players enough to assess all of them with great confidence, but he definitely saw Kakko at the Summer Showcase.
The first player on my list who is certain to be a top-line center is 5'11'' 180 lbs playmaker Alex Turcotte; he is at #3 on my list. He is an agile, powerful skater with excellent stick handling abilities, great hockey IQ, a tenacious forechecking game, and reliable defensive abilities. Another player I see at the top of many rankings is Alex Newhook, who I have flagged as a player with great tools but average hockey IQ -- not a player worthy of a top-five selection. You may also hear about Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin as a top-five selection, who has great potential as a high-IQ goal scorer. However, if one is looking to select the best player available, I believe the correct choice would be Kaapo Kakko.
A good season in Liiga is all that I believe is necessary for Kakko to convince stat watchers. Based on his role with TPS Turku right out of the gate this season, he is poised to have a standout year.
The NHL team I support drafted Quinn Hughes. The 2019 NHL Draft will be hosted in my city. There will be pressure for the Vancouver Canucks to select Jack if they are in a situation to select him. It seems like a storybook scenario. I am not Finnish, so I have no additional interest in Finnish prospects than those from other nations. In spite of all this, from all of my personal viewings, I can't help but feel that Kaapo Kakko would be the better selection if my team had the opportunity to select either player.
If Kakko continues to have success this season in Liiga, I think there could be a shift in the consensus opinion about this topic by the 2019 midterm rankings.
Pay close attention to Kaapo Kakko. His name might be the first you'll hear at the 2019 NHL Draft in Vancouver.
UPDATE: October 16, 2018.
Kaapo Kakko is dominating Liiga as a 17-year-old player with 9 points in 12 games against Finland's top professional players. Jack Hughes, meanwhile, has scored 11 points in 8 games with the USNTDP U18 team so far this season.
Kakko currently has a 55.0% Corsi rating, ranked third among forwards and fourth overall on TPS Turku.
UPDATE: March 17 2019.
As of March 2019, Kaapo Kakko is ranked #1 on Sportsnet's 2019 NHL Draft Rankings:
Sportsnet’s 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings: March - Sportsnet.ca
After Rasmus Dahlin went all season last year as the consensus first-overall 2018 NHL Draft choice, it is quite obvious that sometimes players are too far ahead of their peers to be caught. For a while, it seemed that Jack Hughes would be a similarly advanced player whose status as his year's first-overall pick would be unchallenged.
However, having studied many of the forwards touted as current first-round selections, I have come to the conclusion that Jack Hughes isn't that far ahead of the couple of players in the next-highest tier and that the 6'1'' 180 lbs Finnish forward, Kaapo Kakko of Liiga's TPS Turku, has great potential to eclipse Hughes. Liiga is the Finnish Elite League, the highest level of professional men's hockey in Finland. Kakko plays on TPS' first line, a mighty task for a 17-year-old.
Kaapo Kakko is a European-style power playmaker whose combination of elusiveness, puck skills, and puck protection abilities make him a phenom worth paying close attention to. His puck skills are among the very best of the 2019 draft class, but even more importantly, his hockey IQ is incredibly high -- his patience and creativity with the puck and on his skates, and his smart, aggressive positioning on the forecheck allow him to be a constant offensive threat and a reliable defensive player. He may not overwhelm the opposition with brute north-south strength, speed or physicality, but has the size, balance, agility, and puck skills to protect the puck and maneuver with it in tight spaces -- a graceful combination of finesse, mobility, and strength. Kakko is very agile and fluid on his skates, and is an east-west player who can pivot back-and-forth very quickly along the boards, shield the puck with his body, and rag the puck around; he is a puck hound with the mobility to cover quite a bit of ground and forecheck very effectively. He has a great, albeit underutilized release, has quick hands and excellent stick handling ability, sees the ice very well, and can change directions quickly to take the puck into the middle to score. He has the ability to fake one way then swivel in another direction seamlessly, making him very difficult to contain. He's also a great playmaker who makes crisp passes and makes difficult passes look easy. He's powerful, elusive, and intelligent. One might describe him as an agile power winger and a puck magnet.
Updated annotation (March 17, 2019): Here is a 14-minute highlight reel featuring 60+ plays from Kakko's 2018-19 Liiga season including all of his goals and assists:
Original post continued:
Having watched both Jack Hughes and Kakko quite closely and now comparing their development, tendencies, strengths, deficiencies, and styles of play, I have found Kakko to be the more appealing prospect of the two. This is solidified by Kakko's fiery start to his 2018-19 campaign on TPS' top line. He has played in several Champions Hockey League against teams from other European adult leagues, and has been one of TPS' top players every single game, dominating at times. He plays on their first line, and averages 18 minutes per game. For a 17-year-old to lead a Finnish Elite League team on the ice is an outstanding achievement.
Updated annotation (March 17, 2019): He finished his draft season in Liiga with 22 goals, 38 points in 45 games. This is a points-per-game average of 0.84. He also broke the record for most goals scored by a U18 player in a Liiga season previously held by Alexander Barkov (21 goals).
Original post continued:
Hughes and Kakko separate themselves from the rest of the pack because of their combination of high hockey IQ, ability to always involve themselves in the play, ability to anticipate plays well, as well as their elite stickhandling abilities, and excellent skating. No other player besides these two has such an ideal package of talents and abilities to elevate them into this very exclusive category in 2019. However, while I like both players very much, Hughes possesses some deficiencies that I do not see in Kakko's game.
Although Jack Hughes is a superbly talented stick handler and a very shifty skater, I find that he tries to avoid contact whenever he carries the puck; when he skates and dekes around opposing players, he isn't pushing his way past them so much as he is trying to squeeze his body around them. There is a difference between the two, as one requires precision and no obstacles to slow one down; the other -- active, powerful maneuvering -- is to be elusive, but to be able to push past obstacles. Both players can cut around opponents and drive to the net, but Kakko has a much more powerful frame. Kakko has gained some speed this year, and is impressively agile on his skates. As a stick handler, Hughes is very poised and is always in control, but he is physically weaker on the puck than Kakko; whenever he is clipped by an opposing body, the puck starts to get away from him. Kakko, like Hughes, possesses quick hands, but controls the puck better in traffic, especially along the boards. This is aggressive maneuvering, not passive.
Hughes is a pass-first playmaker with a shot that lacks power. Like his brother's shot, Jack's shot might be his worst attribute. Kakko, on the other hand, has already exhibited one of the better wrist shots of his draft class, but is also an excellent playmaker.
Both players are agile, but Kakko benefits greatly from his puck protection skills along the boards to complement his shiftiness and make him extremely difficult to separate from the puck. Hughes does not possess particularly strong puck protection skills, despite his ability to elude opponents in close quarters.
In terms of defensive play, I consider Hughes' game to be the worst of my group of elite players. While Kakko, Turcottte, and Podkolzin are all very responsible in the defensive end, Hughes is inattentive in the defensive end and sometimes doesn't do enough to help prevent the opposition from pressuring his team. This can cause trouble.
Hughes is a very slick player. Compared to Kakko, who thrives in all areas of the ice and dominates possession, however, Hughes plays a softer game with feebler qualities. He is not quite as complete a player as Kakko is, nor is he starting to look that far ahead of Kakko offensively. Kaapo Kakko has had an excellent start to the 2018-19 season in the Finnish Elite League against adult players. The highest age group that Hughes has ever played against was at the World Junior Summer Showcase, where he looked decent.
When both players are of similar hockey IQ and puck skills, I prefer players who can overwhelm the opposition with at least some degree of strength and out-muscle them in one-on-one situations. Hughes does not possess that ability. Yes, he can be elusive, but he does not always succeed in one-on-one situations either; at the NHL level, even Connor McDavid, who could elude players without ever being touched at lower levels, must push through obstacles frequently to reach his destination. At the NHL level, defensive positioning is so much more precise than at the junior level; defenders don't often give the puck carrier much space.
I don't know if Hughes will ever be able to develop the strength to beat defenders with a combination of force and finesse. He has a small frame, and his brother's height is evidence that he might not grow too much more either.
He may be a great skater, but I also disagree with the opinion that he is a top-level skater in the NHL. Connor McDavid has the best acceleration in the NHL and excellent top speed. Jack's own brother Quinn skates better than he does, with a more explosive first step and much smoother edgework. Jack has small, quick bursts and great puck control while he is moving, but I don't think his skating is in the same category as the most elite skaters in the NHL.
I see some people call Jack Hughes the next Patrick Kane, but I do not agree with this notion. Kane is an excellent shooter with a powerful one-timer and tremendous wrist shot. Kane is a top-notch goal scorer. Hughes' shooting skills are average. Kane is, frankly, more mobile a skater than Hughes, with better edge work. Hughes is an agile skater, but not on that same elite level. Hughes has little bursts of speed to help bring him around defenders, but he doesn't have the effortless acceleration or sustained use of his edges to zip around the offensive zone the way that Kane does. He also doesn't hound the puck the way that Kane does, instead opting to distribute it at a much more frequent rate. Kane loves to hold on and make things happen independently.
A few have compared Hughes to McDavid. I think they play similar east-west games, frankly. However, McDavid has so many more tools than Hughes. If you were to take away some of the acceleration and top speed -- thus neutering his north-south game--, make McDavid three inches and thirty pounds smaller, and also take a little bit of zip off of his shot, you might get something similar to Jack.
McDavid is better defensively than Jack Hughes and has a more much complete skill set. Hughes has some of those skills, but lacks others -- especially the speed that make McDavid so special.
Not much separates the stick handling abilities of Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko; the marginal difference to me does not outweigh the much more complete skill set that Kakko offers. In terms of skating, Hughes is an agile skater, but he is not powerful nor would his skating belong in the top-tier of the NHL. Kakko provides such a mature, well-rounded, dynamic offensive game with great playmaking elements, puck protection elements, and forechecking elements.
Like Hughes, Kakko can create chances in close quarters and flex his creativity to generate chances from out of nowhere. His defensive game is better, his shot is much better, and he plays a more powerful game.
With regards to the positions they play, here has been some debate as to the suitability of Jack Hughes as an NHL center.
The type of game that Hughes plays -- quick off the rush, with puck transitional skills through the neutral zone, a finesse-based, offense-first mentality and a lack of strength-based qualities -- is much more of a playmaking winger's game than that of a high-end center. Hughes is also very small for a first-line center; centers who are 5'10'' and shorter tend to compensate for their height with a heavy, strong frame. Height is less important than weight, but height is a factor along with frame type in determining the amount of weight that a player can carry before heaviness becomes detrimental. Hughes is short with a small frame -- rare for a successful NHL center. The fact that he also isn't very good defensively suggests that he might end up as a winger in the NHL.
On the other hand, we have a small sample size of Kakko's suitability as a center, but Team Finland tried him successfully at center at the World Junior Summer Showcase. His complete game could make him a potential candidate to try at center in the future. Craig Button was convinced enough to mention in his latest Craig's List publication that Kakko can play either wing or center and possesses versatility as a forward. I feel that Craig doesn't view these players enough to assess all of them with great confidence, but he definitely saw Kakko at the Summer Showcase.
The first player on my list who is certain to be a top-line center is 5'11'' 180 lbs playmaker Alex Turcotte; he is at #3 on my list. He is an agile, powerful skater with excellent stick handling abilities, great hockey IQ, a tenacious forechecking game, and reliable defensive abilities. Another player I see at the top of many rankings is Alex Newhook, who I have flagged as a player with great tools but average hockey IQ -- not a player worthy of a top-five selection. You may also hear about Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin as a top-five selection, who has great potential as a high-IQ goal scorer. However, if one is looking to select the best player available, I believe the correct choice would be Kaapo Kakko.
A good season in Liiga is all that I believe is necessary for Kakko to convince stat watchers. Based on his role with TPS Turku right out of the gate this season, he is poised to have a standout year.
The NHL team I support drafted Quinn Hughes. The 2019 NHL Draft will be hosted in my city. There will be pressure for the Vancouver Canucks to select Jack if they are in a situation to select him. It seems like a storybook scenario. I am not Finnish, so I have no additional interest in Finnish prospects than those from other nations. In spite of all this, from all of my personal viewings, I can't help but feel that Kaapo Kakko would be the better selection if my team had the opportunity to select either player.
If Kakko continues to have success this season in Liiga, I think there could be a shift in the consensus opinion about this topic by the 2019 midterm rankings.
Pay close attention to Kaapo Kakko. His name might be the first you'll hear at the 2019 NHL Draft in Vancouver.
UPDATE: October 16, 2018.
Kaapo Kakko is dominating Liiga as a 17-year-old player with 9 points in 12 games against Finland's top professional players. Jack Hughes, meanwhile, has scored 11 points in 8 games with the USNTDP U18 team so far this season.
Kakko currently has a 55.0% Corsi rating, ranked third among forwards and fourth overall on TPS Turku.
Scouts are now considering Kakko to be rapidly closing in on Hughes in the rankings. Future Considerations' Dennis Schellenberg and Toni Rajamaki, Larry Fisher of The Hockey Writers, and numerous others have all written about Kakko's stellar play so far in Liiga.Liiga has kept track of 5-vs-5 Corsi since 2014-15.
Kaapo Kakko currently has the fourth-highest Corsi % on his team with 55.0%; he has the third-highest of the TPS Turku forwards. This number is going to change throughout the course of the season, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
Here are some Corsi percentages of other notable prospects in their rookie Liiga seasons:
Sebastian Aho (2014-15): 50.2% (8th on his team)
Patrik Laine (2015-16): 53.3% (4th on his team)
Jesse Puljujarvi (2015-16): 57.4% (2nd on his team)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2017-18): 49.7% (10th on his team)
Rasmus Kupari (2017-18): 46.3% (22nd on his team)
Jack Hughes has become a household name among NHL fans, but a phenomenal Finnish superstar named Kaapo Kakko is already putting doubt in the minds of scouts about whether or not Hughes will be drafted first overall in 2019.
Kaapo Kakko, a 6'1'', 185 lbs power playmaker whose game has been compared by some to Peter Forsberg's, has dominated Finland's top professional league, Liiga, so far this year. This is the same league that Alexander Barkov, Mikael Granlund, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi were drafted from. Out of those players and other Finnish prospects of recent years, some scouts have called Kakko the best since Barkov.
Future Considerations' head of European scouting, Dennis Schellenberg, as well as the service's Finland-based scout, Toni Rajamäki, have been amazed by the special play of Kakko this season:
Kakko looking capable of joining elite draft company • FC Hockey
"Kakko has been outstanding in nearly every game I’ve seen him in... Great vision and very good in tight spaces. An overall powerful skater with great top speed... If he’s going to continue to play in this fashion for the rest of the season, don’t be surprised if his name pops up in the first overall discussion." - Dennis Schellenberg, Future Considerations' Head of European Scouting, Oct. 2018Kakko looking capable of joining elite draft company
Derek Neumeier
October 4, 2018
Kaapo Kakko is ready to push.
There is widespread consensus within the scouting community that Jack Hughes is the early, clear frontrunner to be the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, but the supremely talented Finnish winger is poised to ensure that whatever team ends up holding that top pick will have a difficult decision.
After all, any time a prospect is scoring at a pace that surpasses what elite NHLers such as Aleksander Barkov and Patrik Laine did in the same league at the same age, it’s impossible not take close notice.
Kakko’s start to the 2018-19 season in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, has been stellar to say the least, with seven points in his first eight games. Should he continue that near point-per-game pace throughout the season, he would eclipse what Barkov (48 points in 53 games) and Laine (33 points in 46 games) did in their draft seasons.
“Kakko has been outstanding in nearly every game I’ve seen him in,” said Dennis Schellenberg, Future Considerations’ head of European scouting.
“Great vision and very good in tight spaces. An overall powerful skater with great top speed. Kakko combines skill, strength and hockey sense, making him another top prospect out of Finland.”
...
“Kakko’s start to the season has been quite amazing since he has been one of the best players in the whole league,” said Finland-based Future Considerations scout Toni Rajamäki. “And that’s quite impressive for a guy this age.”
Kakko doesn’t turn 18 until mid-February.
“He has tremendous vision and great puck skills,” Rajamäki said. “He likes to use his size and he can be a really effective player in the corners since he handles the puck well in small places and knows how to protect it.”
He scored 10 points in seven games at the 2018 IIHF World Under-18 Championship back in April, playing a key role in helping Finland win gold. Despite being a year younger than most of the competition, Kakko was one of the tournament’s best players.
While Hughes is still the undisputed jewel of the 2019 class, does Kakko have the potential to unseat him from that perch?
Some of those who’ve watched him the closest believe so.
“If he’s going to continue to play in this fashion for the rest of the season, don’t be surprised if his name pops up in the first overall discussion,” Schellenberg said.
...
Kakko is set to add some attention to the top of the 2019 draft class.
“I think he can challenge Jack Hughes in the fight for the first spot,” Rajamäki added.
“Kakko’s start to the season has been quite amazing since he has been one of the best players in the whole league. And that’s quite impressive for a guy this age... I think he can challenge Jack Hughes in the fight for the first spot.” - Toni Rajamaki, Future Considerations Scout, Oct. 2018
Meanwhile, here is the latest publication by Larry Fisher, scout and writer for The Hockey Writers:
2019 NHL Draft: Fisher’s Top 124 for October
"Don’t get me wrong, Jack Hughes is still the frontrunner... but I’m sensing some serious challengers. A 'Big Five' is emerging... Kaapo Kakko is gaining ground on Hughes and may be closer to him than Patrik Laine was to Auston Matthews at this point in their 2016 draft year." - Larry Fisher, The Hockey Writers, Oct. 20182019 NHL Draft: Fisher’s Top 124 for October
By Larry Fisher October 9th, 2018
Could we have a two-horse race developing for first overall in 2019?
Dare I say three? Four? Five?
Don’t get me wrong, Jack Hughes is still the frontrunner and may very well go wire-to-wire as No. 1, but I’m sensing some serious challengers.
A “Big Five” is emerging amongst the top forwards and that order could certainly change between now and June. The order of those five remained the same in my rankings from August to October, but the gaps do seem to be narrowing.
Kaapo Kakko is gaining ground on Hughes and may be closer to him than Patrik Laine was to Auston Matthews at this point in their 2016 draft year.
The fact Hughes didn’t up his level of competition the way Matthews did — staying at the U.S. National Team Development Program instead of going overseas to play pro if college wasn’t an option — could hinder Hughes to some degree while opening the door for Kakko and others.
The others — in the “Big Five” — being Vasili Podkolzin, Kirby Dach and Dylan Cozens.
Evan Oppenheimer on Twitter
...Evan Oppenheimer @OppenheimerEvan
I'm at the point regarding Kakko vs. Hughes where Kakko is firmly #1 for me, and Kakko would need to have a pretty mediocre rest of the year to not be #1 It's not even up to Hughes right now, since he can't really be "better" for the USDP. Sucks for him, but that was his choice
4:52 PM - 7 Oct 2018
Others have noted that Hughes, while a flashy player, is not a very defensively-responsible player at all. In fact, he is the type of player who takes risks to generate offense. Here is the opinion of draft analytics researcher @Scouching.
Will Scouch on Twitter
Cam Robinson of Dobber Prospects had an exchange with @Scouting today. While Hughes is talented, his decision-making can be placed into question sometimes.Will Scouch @Scouching
Also just gonna say it, for all the massive upside Jack Hughes has, he's going to need to simplify things a bit. Insane speed in transition and offensive intelligence, but in both games I've seen of him thus far, he's been surprisingly sloppy with the puck. Obviously still early.
6:47 PM - 14 Oct 2018
Will Scouch on Twitter
Will Scouch on TwitterWill Scouch @Scouching
I'd need to dig in, but I'd leave Honka out of that group. It's still early, but there's a crop separating themselves on my sheet of Kakko, Dach, Suzuki, Krebs, and Kaliyev. Hughes has been underwhelming. Cozens is up there too. Thomas Harley and Dillon Hamaliuk as well so far.
10:17 AM - 15 Oct 2018
/Cam Robinson/ on TwitterWill Scouch @Scouching
I've been watching quite a few NTDP games already this year, and I absolutely am not saying he's not going #1, but he's made some awful awful decisions on top of him being ridiculously good.
10:24 AM - 15 Oct 2018
Some examples of questionable defensive plays by Hughes, as highlighted by @Scouching:/Cam Robinson/ @Hockey_Robinson
He hasn’t been the superhero many expected but still so dynamic. I can’t help but think the QoC plays a role though. It’s a shame he couldn’t have jumped up.
10:28 AM - 15 Oct 2018
Will Scouch on Twitter: "Pardon the janky video, but between Matt Boldy (9), and Hughes (6), what happened here? They're on the PP during this, mind you." (VIDEO) - 7:01 PM - 14 Oct 2018
Will Scouch on Twitter: "Want another one? Here's another one. Same game. Forgivably loses possession in the NZ, drops back, is given the puck, gets hemmed in, falls down and it could've been much worse." (VIDEO) - 7:11 PM - 14 Oct 2018
Robinson suggests that the lack of challenge (Quality of Competition) is allowing Hughes' game to slip.
However, the fact that Hughes isn't lighting up the stat sheet at anywhere near the rate that was expected of him leads me to think there's more to it than the league being "too easy." If he was torching the league and cheating defensively, that would be a different story; his numbers, on the contrary, are disappointing so far.
To cast further doubts about Jack Hughes, his production so far this year has been disappointing. Currently, Hughes has 2 goals, 11 points in 8 games in his D+0 season with the U18 USNTDP. The most successful D+0 season ever by a player with the U18 team was Clayton Keller with 37 goals, 107 points in 62 games in 2015-16.
Kaapo Kakko, on the other hand, has been a dominant force in Liiga, with 9 points in 12 games against Finland's top professional players. To compare, Patrik Laine had 33 points in 46 games in his draft year. Alexander Barkov scored 48 points in 53 games in his draft season. The Liiga season is 60 games in length, and generally the top scorer averages 60 points in 60 games. Kakko is 17 years old and the best player on his Liiga team, TPS Turku.
Hughes is 5'10'', 165 lbs, and currently plays a risky style of game. Skill-wise, he and Kakko are quite similar. Their puck skills belong in the top tier of this draft class. However, Kakko plays a much more powerful game with exceptional balance, agility, strength, and aggressiveness -- a Forsberg-esque game of shiftiness along the boards, power, and elegance with the puck. Hughes plays a high-tempo game but tends to shy away from contact and has an underwhelming shot, hence he is mostly a speedy playmaker.
To complicate things further, the Finnish national program intends to have Kakko be a centerman, a position that he has played before and can adapt to at the professional level. Hughes, at 5'10'', 165 lbs, meanwhile, faces some of the same questions about playing center as Mitch Marner and Clayton Keller did -- both play wing at the NHL level.
FinnProspects on Twitter: "Kaapo Kakko about playing center in an Finnish newspaper interview: "I've played center previously in juniors and a few games in the national team as well. But I'm fine with playing in the wing now." National team coach Jukka Jalonen would also like to see Kakko playing center."
On Kaapo Kakko, what we should expect from him in 2018-19, and the difference between him and Jack Hughes - DraftGeek
"Barring a surprising demotion, Kakko will spend his 2018-19 season in the Finnish professional league. Jack Hughes, meanwhile, will play for the USNTDP U18 program, where the level of play is criminally lower than his skill level... If Kakko does well in the Liiga, that could be the straw that works against Hughes, and could be responsible for him falling out of the #1 position.]On Kaapo Kakko, what we should expect from him in 2018-19, and the difference between him and Jack Hughes
September 22, 2018 | NHL Draft | Sam Happi
...
So What Seperates Kakko From Jack Hughes?
Not as much as you might think. Hughes is an incredibly intelligent playmaker that’s a constant threat, but Kakko is insanely talented himself. The Finn utilizes his body exceptionally well, using his frame and reach to protect the puck. He can slice through a defence this way, identifying holes and slicing through them, using that puck protection to prevent defenders from even having a chance at a poke check. His intelligence and hands shine whenever he possesses the puck, and knocking him off of it is no easy feat.
Barring a surprising demotion, Kakko will spend his 2018-19 season in the Finnish professional league.
Jack Hughes, meanwhile, will play for the USNTDP U18 program, where the level of play is criminally lower than his skill level. It’s possible that his play becomes somewhat stagnant there, because he won’t ever be facing anybody that can challenge his level of talent.
If Kakko does well in the Liiga, that could be the straw that works against Hughes, and could be responsible for him falling out of the #1 position. Kakko will have proven himself against men, whereas the highlight of Hughes’ resume will only feature domination of weak competition.
For reference, the NHLe league translation factor for the Liiga is over 6 and a half times that of the USNTDP
....
Kakko will have proven himself against men, whereas the highlight of Hughes’ resume will only feature domination of weak competition. For reference, the NHLe league translation factor for the Liiga is over 6 and a half times that of the USNTDP." - Sam Happi, DraftGeek.com, Sept. 2018
Nick Kypreos stated today, during his analysis of the Elias Pettersson incident, that there is an "internal debate" happening with regards to whether Jack Hughes should play in the NHL next season.
Is A Two Game Suspension Enough For Mike Matheson’s Hit On Elias Pettersson?| Tim and Sid
Joe Marino on Twitter
There is already a debate about which player should be selected first overall, as Kakko is rising and Hughes is falling. With the 2019 World Junior Championships in Vancouver likely being a pivotal point in this debate, there could be a new first-overall favorite by the start of the new year.Joe Marino @JoeTCBNHL
“There’s some internal debate with Jack Hughes on whether or not he’s gonna play next year (in the NHL)” -Nick Kypreos
9:11 PM - 15 Oct 2018
UPDATE: March 17 2019.
As of March 2019, Kaapo Kakko is ranked #1 on Sportsnet's 2019 NHL Draft Rankings:
Sportsnet’s 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings: March - Sportsnet.ca
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