I Hate The Draft Lottery

[Ceremony]

Sees thread title: Yes, this is a reasonable position and it's about time HF had a thread that wasn't BUT THE OILERS!!!!
Sees thread content: Oh, no, it's even worse

 

[Tuggy]

The draft lottery is crap too because then the NHL can start putting guys where they want them, and don't think for a second that they won't. It's all about the dollar bill.

The first two years of the lottery, two huge Canadian markets get their saviors. I'm shocked.

Can us Habs be next?

 

[Treb]

I don't mean I hate the lottery drawing odds and would rather go in reverse order of the standings, I mean I want to get rid of this system altogether and have it random. Every team has the same odds and no-one is better off for losing

So you're advocating for team to remain bottom of the barrel and eventually fold?

 

[Spirit of 67]

Well I was just fine with the old way of doing things. But the long and short of it is, I don't care which way they do it.

One suggestion that I'd like to see tried out (maybe at the AHL level somehow) is once you're eliminated, you start to amass points. Team that amasses the most points from the time they are eliminated gets first pick. And so on.

 

[Machinehead]

Try thinking about something before you say it. What do you think would have been better for the NHL? Matthews in Toronto or Matthews in Arizona?

Hint: Toronto is going to sell out with or without Matthews

Matthews in Toronto is better for the NHL AINEC

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

The draft lottery is crap too because then the NHL can start putting guys where they want them, and don't think for a second that they won't. It's all about the dollar bill.

The first two years of the lottery, two huge Canadian markets get their saviors. I'm shocked.

Saviors? Bryan Berard and Chris Phillips? Saviors?

If by savior you mean two of the most mediocre 1st overall players ever.

And if by huge Canadian markets, you mean Ottawa, with a population of about 700,000 then you nailed it yet again!

 

[sharks9]

Giving everyone a chance at #1 overall is a horrible idea. Under no circumstances should Pittsburgh or Chicago have had a shot at guys like McDavid, Eichel, Matthews or Laine.

 

[lomiller1]

Positive feedback systems are inherently unstable. Negative feedback teams are inherently stable.
IOW if you have a league where you reward good the entire league is unstable and prone to collapse. If you want a stable NHL that is no in danger of complete collapse all the time, then you MUST have a salary cap and MUST give the highest draft picks to the weakest team. Some cities may think they are immune to league wide instability but they are probably wrong. Before the cap was implemented even top 10 markets like Chicago and Pittsburgh were in danger of folding.


If Chicago and New York turn their back on the NHL then even the Leafs go down because Toronto won’t support anything that doesn’t get at least some attention in those cities.

 

[Mattilaus]

Try thinking about something before you say it. What do you think would have been better for the NHL? Matthews in Toronto or Matthews in Arizona?

Hint: Toronto is going to sell out with or without Matthews

Obviously the lottery was not rigged, but you are crazy if you think the NHL makes more money with Matthews in Arizona than in Toronto.

 

[Zorf]

Well I was just fine with the old way of doing things. But the long and short of it is, I don't care which way they do it.

One suggestion that I'd like to see tried out (maybe at the AHL level somehow) is once you're eliminated, you start to amass points. Team that amasses the most points from the time they are eliminated gets first pick. And so on.

The flaw with this is that some teams genuinely suck, like Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa, and even though they will all be mathematically eliminated first, it doesn't give them an advantage to amass more points because they already suck. If they can't win games before they get eliminated from making the playoffs, it's not like they suddenly will afterwards.


I'm ok with the theory of a draft lottery, but it's bananas to me that a team could finish 14th and get the 1st overall pick. Fans of teams that are brutal (like my Sens) have to endure atrocious hockey and not even get a payoff in the end if the team loses the lottery.

I get that there is no perfect answer because I also don't agree with teams actively tanking, but as a Sens fan, having to watch this garbage hockey only to see what should be a top 3 pick become a 5th overall pick would suck. I'm obviously pretty biased right now and I'm trying not to be. haha.

 

[Cotton]

Positive feedback systems are inherently unstable. Negative feedback teams are inherently stable.
IOW if you have a league where you reward good the entire league is unstable and prone to collapse. If you want a stable NHL that is no in danger of complete collapse all the time, then you MUST have a salary cap and MUST give the highest draft picks to the weakest team. Some cities may think they are immune to league wide instability but they are probably wrong. Before the cap was implemented even top 10 markets like Chicago and Pittsburgh were in danger of folding.


If Chicago and New York turn their back on the NHL then even the Leafs go down because Toronto won’t support anything that doesn’t get at least some attention in those cities.

Riiiiiight.

 

[haveandare]

I miss not having a salary cap more. Why build a power house only to have to tear it down because your team is too good?

Why build a good team only to have to a team with more money buy a better one?

 

[lomiller1]

If you wanna see small markets actually make noise, look at MLB and their soft cap system.

WTF are you talking about? If you don’t live in one of the big markets, there is zero reason to be anything other than a bandwagon jumper who comes on board every couple decade when the stars align and you have a chance to be good. Nearly everyone ignores their team the rest of the time. The only difference is that MLB teams get enough from league revenue to scrape by even with barely any fans in the stands. If you tried to do this in a gate dependant league like the NHL you'd see 20+ teams fold within a decade or two.


The disparity between rich/poor markets is a big reason why MLB has such a big problem attracting new fans. The average MLB fan was in their 30’s and had been watching baseball for 25 years when real fee agency was introduced after the court cases of the early 90’s. Conversely the NHL won it’s labor disputes in the 90’s, got a salary cap and subsequently left MLB in it’s dust.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I could see how big market team's would hate the draft lottery and the salary cap. Small markets are the most likely ones to win the draft lottery or to be in position to do so. They don't spend as much money and they usually don't compete as well as the bigger markets. The bigger markets have pressure to win. The other teams are just happy to have a franchise. Coming from a small market I understand why they have the system they do. I think big markets need to change how they do things in terms of building a team. I see the Leafs have taken notice on how to do it. Build through the draft and use FA as a tool to build your team the right way. Not build it to win now all of the time. It doesn't work that way. Small team's don't have the benefit of making mistakes in FA so this is another reason why they have a salary cap.

 

[arrbez]

The draft lottery is crap too because then the NHL can start putting guys where they want them, and don't think for a second that they won't. It's all about the dollar bill.

The first two years of the lottery, two huge Canadian markets get their saviors. I'm shocked.

Are you suggesting that Gary Bettman, who has put ten times more effort into keeping the sunbelt teams alive than he ever did for a Canadian franchise, actually rigged the lottery to send arguably the best prospect in the last 30 years to Edmonton instead of Arizona?

And don't get me started on 2016.

"Who won the lottery?"
The team with the best odds
"rigged. that would never happen."


If the NHL actually rigged the draft lottery, you'd have McDavid in Toronto and Matthews in Arizona.

 

[Grub]

One thing you forgot. If a team constantly loses and does not get a top end prospect.. do you think the fans would stay and support the team? Just compare to 2011 Canucks with the 2018 Canucks. Back in 2011 we had consecutively sold out tickets year after year... now we're even lucky to get 1 game sold out in a year.

Lets say we continue to suck and don't get a top pick... do you think fans would tune in to the team? Probably not. But if they were to get a young player that can turn around the franchise, fans would begin to tune in... it gives hope to bottom teams.

 

[arrbez]

Giving everyone a chance at #1 overall is a horrible idea. Under no circumstances should Pittsburgh or Chicago have had a shot at guys like McDavid, Eichel, Matthews or Laine.

People love that idea until it actually happens.

Even as it currently stands, one of these years a team with a 2% chance will win the lottery and everyone will lose their goddamn mind.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

there's no reason to not just go reverse order anyways.

the lottery is a product of people seeing ghosts about tanking that dont exist. bad teams are just that...bad, they arent tanking.

reverse order works fine for football where the #1 pick has much more impact, and where there has been legitimate tanking for generational QBs

 

[Eisen]

Draft age should be lowered to 16. That way it'd turn into a complete crapshoot and everyone would be on a truly level playing field.

That would probably have the effect that the picks after first overall become a crapshoot. The first is often very clear years before with very few exceptions. If anything, a higher draft age would show what player you are actually getting and therefore level the playing field.

 

[sharks9]

People love that idea until it actually happens.

Even as it currently stands, one of these years a team with a 2% chance will win the lottery and everyone will lose their goddamn mind.

Exactly. Imagine if Tampa Bay won the lottery last year? Or LA? Or what if Chicago misses the playoffs this year and gets Dahlin? People will be furious so I don't think we should allow playoff teams into the lottery anytime.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I wouldn't mind tweaking the system: can't draft in the top 2 or 3 in consecutive years, salary cap allowances for signing own draft picks, etc...

I'm good with the lottery though.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I think that if you take away the certainty of a bad team's picks, their only recourse is to sell even more to acquire picks and prospects. Means tanking would only get worse.

 

[lomiller1]

One thing you forgot. If a team constantly loses and does not get a top end prospect.. do you think the fans would stay and support the team? Just compare to 2011 Canucks with the 2018 Canucks. Back in 2011 we had consecutively sold out tickets year after year... now we're even lucky to get 1 game sold out in a year.

Lets say we continue to suck and don't get a top pick... do you think fans would tune in to the team? Probably not. But if they were to get a young player that can turn around the franchise, fans would begin to tune in... it gives hope to bottom teams.

Perfect example of why even premier NHL markets are not really safe long term without a salary cap. When the Canucks see such a radicle drop off in attendance they also see a big drop off in revenue, so their ability to pay players in a non-cap league also drops off. If they can’t pay top players, they can’t attract top players and can’t get better. If they don’t get better attendance and revenue drop further, their roster gets worse.


Vancouver is the third largest city in Canada. If it’s susceptible to this type of death spiral who isn’t? Again I don’t think Toronto will support anything that doesn’t have at least some level of popularity in the Northeast US, but even if Toronto is "safe" (are Leaf fans really going to show up to watch the Leafs vs Marlies 82 times a year?

 

[Spirit of 67]

The flaw with this is that some teams genuinely suck, like Arizona, Buffalo and Ottawa, and even though they will all be mathematically eliminated first, it doesn't give them an advantage to amass more points because they already suck. If they can't win games before they get eliminated from making the playoffs, it's not like they suddenly will afterwards.

I don't disagree. Which is why I'd like to see it tried out and see how it goes.
Don't forget though, teams tend to do better in "garbage time."

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

I like the lottery