Hypothetical question for the pro-tank crowd

[norrisnick]

Just have to say that if we fall into a Patty Kane then we're getting a HOFer and a guy who can carry a scoring line on multiple cup teams. Sign me up.

You have to knock a 2nd rounder turned HOF defenseman out of the park first.

 

[Retire91]

Not rostering up to perpetual mediocrity is the right strategy. We got hosed by the lottery but still made the right play. Fortunately it looks like Yzerman made great picks but we are defintely going to continue feeling the consequence of missing 1 or 2 top 3 picks. Its going to show in the long term success of this team. It was still the right strategy.

To me there is no difference between bad hockey and mediocre hockey so why not have bad hockey and collect talent to actually be a contender. It's not "giving up" anything to improve your odds at better talent, so like why wouldn't you.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Personally, I think that this team was a little beyond going for 1st overall. Seider and Raymond are true cornerstones of a winning team. We don't want to be putting them through a miserable season of uncompetitive hockey. Larkin can be part of a winning core. It's better that we keep him around and if we committed to tanking this year, that wouldn't have been possible.

I do think that we perhaps pushed a little too hard too early. Every signing should have been directed at supplementing what we have without costing us anything in the long term. The goal shouldn't have been to finish last, but 5th from the bottom. Low enough to get another true difference maker in this strong draft, good enough lottery odds that maybe we get Michkov/Bedard, but without trying to out lose the truly incompetent.

I hated it the day it was signed and I hate to keep harping on it, but I just can't understand bringing in Chiarot on that contract. Even if he was what we wanted to pretend he might be at the start of the year, he was never going to be relevant for this team in 3 years when we're actually trying to win.

Copp is similar, but I do think that he'll be a useful role player for us down the stretch so I can understand it. He actually is what we wanted him to be, a strong veteran presence that can ease the burden as our team matures while covering a huge organizational weakness without breaking the bank.

The rest of our moves, Matta, Husso, etc are all cool by me.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Pick #3 is awesome in this draft. I would be absolutely psyched.

We are literally bottom 10 right now...

Not by points percentage.

 

[norrisnick]

Pick #3 is awesome in this draft. I would be absolutely psyched.


Not by points percentage.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

View attachment 647319

It sorted funny, but they're tied for #10. Maybe NHL.com values games in hand.

 

[RedHawkDown]

The people who keep railing against tanking seem to fundamentally misunderstand what that strategy advocates for.

The point is not to expect to win the draft lottery and draft top 1-2.
The point is to maximize your chance at a top 5 pick.
If you finish bottom 3, that chance is 100%.

People here repeatedly point to the years we were bad and lost the draft lottery. Except they miss the entire point - we were bad, lost the draft lottery, and STILL got a great player because we were so bad that the pick was still top 5-6. Seider. Raymond. Edvinsson. All guys that we would not have gotten if we were obsessed with creating a "competitive" roster consisting of bandaid solutions and overpaid UFAs.

To win in the modern NHL, you need star power. The only real way to do that is to draft it. The absolute highest likelihood of drafting it comes from the top of the draft. Tanking guarantees you are at the top of the draft. That's it. It's not more complex than that.

So to answer the original question - I would be very happy. It would suck not to get Bedard, but we would get one of Michkov, Carlsson, or Fantilli.

Michkov and Fantilli at the least are franchise changing talents, and Carlsson likely is as well. All three are significantly more talented than any forward on our roster or in our pipeline, by a huge margin.

 

[norrisnick]

View attachment 647321

It sorted funny, but they're tied for #10. Maybe NHL.com values games in hand.

The Wings having a game in hand is the only tie-breaker they have over Ottawa. Every single other one is in the Sens' favor or a tie, RW, ROW, goal diff, total goals, etc...

And obviously at season's end, the games played will be identical.

 

[Henkka]

I don't get at all of this point of discussion.

 

[RedHawkDown]

The point is that you can suck ass for 3-5+ years, pick the consensus player at that spot, and still suck. You have to build your team as best you can and whatever pieces you can add via the draft, great.

But banking on a run of 5 years of lottery picks to magically construct a winning core is foolish to say the least.

Again with these nonsensical hypotheticals.

It isn't "magic'. It's been done, over and over again. The only teams to win a cup in the last 15 years that didn't build their core this way are Boston/STL. Sure we could try and replicate what they did, which is draft incredibly well in the lower rounds and get lucky in that way. But it's easier to do what the others did:

LA - Doughty 2nd overall, Kopitar 11th overall, Carter 10th overall. They do not win without Doughty.
Chicago - Toews 2nd overall, Kane 1st overall.
Capitals - OV 1st overall, Backstrom 4th overall
Pens - Crosby 1st overall, Malkin 2nd overall
Tampa - Hedman 2nd overall, Stamkos 1st overall
Avs - MacKinnon 1st overall, Makar 4th overall, Landeskog 2nd overall.

We are almost there with Seider at 6th, and Raymond 4th who can hopefully develop into a major difference maker. But we don't have an offensive talent like any of those teams did, and the best way to get one is through the top of the draft. It is easier to aim to be Chicago/Tampa/Pittsburgh/Colorado because that model has worked for many more teams. The Boston/St. Louis model is more difficult and requires hitting 2nd round picks out of the park, which I'm sure everyone here would agree is very difficult.

The aim isn't to be very good. It's to win the cup. And the recent evidence suggests that you are much more likely to win the cup with multiple top 3-4 lottery picks making up your core.

Sure, there are teams that have managed to squander top picks as well - Edmonton and Buffalo being the main ones. But there are many more teams that have been in constant mediocrity because they always pick 5-15: Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Dallas, Nashville, Carolina, Winnipeg, etc..

No method is absolute - you can fail to build a contender through the tanking method. But it's the method that has worked the most and failed the least. And that's the point.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

The people who keep railing against tanking seem to fundamentally misunderstand what that strategy advocates for.

The point is not to expect to win the draft lottery and draft top 1-2.
The point is to maximize your chance at a top 5 pick.
If you finish bottom 3, that chance is 100%.

People here repeatedly point to the years we were bad and lost the draft lottery. Except they miss the entire point - we were bad, lost the draft lottery, and STILL got a great player because we were so bad that the pick was still top 5-6. Seider. Raymond. Edvinsson. All guys that we would not have gotten if we were obsessed with creating a "competitive" roster consisting of bandaid solutions and overpaid UFAs.

To win in the modern NHL, you need star power. The only real way to do that is to draft it. The absolute highest likelihood of drafting it comes from the top of the draft. Tanking guarantees you are at the top of the draft. That's it. It's not more complex than that.

So to answer the original question - I would be very happy. It would suck not to get Bedard, but we would get one of Michkov, Carlsson, or Fantilli.

Michkov and Fantilli at the least are franchise changing talents, and Carlsson likely is as well. All three are significantly more talented than any forward on our roster or in our pipeline, by a huge margin.

And the people who keep saying tanking is the best way to go seem to fundamentally misunderstand that a pro sports franchise isn't going to intentionally and repeatedly put an unwatchable product on the ice season after season in hopes of stocking up on high picks.

The Wings were legitimately awful in 2020. To expect the Red Wings ownership to intentionally suck for at least 3 more years in a race to the bottom just isn't realistic. Fans won't support the team. Players won't want to play there. Coaches won't want to coach there. Young players will get demoralized from having no hope of being competitive.

I get that everyone wishes the Wings were still at the bottom because of this years draft but at some point you have to start trying to progress if you want to keep fans and make money.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

The people who keep railing against tanking seem to fundamentally misunderstand what that strategy advocates for.

The point is not to expect to win the draft lottery and draft top 1-2.
The point is to maximize your chance at a top 5 pick.
If you finish bottom 3, that chance is 100%.

People here repeatedly point to the years we were bad and lost the draft lottery. Except they miss the entire point - we were bad, lost the draft lottery, and STILL got a great player because we were so bad that the pick was still top 5-6. Seider. Raymond. Edvinsson. All guys that we would not have gotten if we were obsessed with creating a "competitive" roster consisting of bandaid solutions and overpaid UFAs.

To win in the modern NHL, you need star power. The only real way to do that is to draft it. The absolute highest likelihood of drafting it comes from the top of the draft. Tanking guarantees you are at the top of the draft. That's it. It's not more complex than that.

I also think this organization's draft history has created some really warped expectations. Yeah, this team has climbed to the top on the back of late round picks, but it is incredibly improbable to happen again. Just like it was incredibly improbable for Yzerman to get all those amazing talents that TBL got. I hope it stands to reason that a team can't bank on winning through a string of incredibly improbable events! Draft and hope is not nearly the viable alternative Wings fans have come to believe.

I think there's a series of propositions tank proponents accept:

1. Teams build through the draft.
2. The draft is luck, as is the draft lottery.
3. Given 1 and 2, the best course of action is to maximize your odds.
4. The best way to maximize draft odds is by finishing low in the standings.

But also, I think most tank proponents accept that tanking is not a good strategy, it's just the best strategy. The NHL has made it very difficult to rebuild no matter what the circumstances (and this particularly stings because other teams built up beforehand, and thus weren't subject to the same rules). When tank opponents complain that tanking is a low percentage strategy, tank proponents sympathize with that. I think we all wish it were easier.

 

[RedHawkDown]

And the people who keep saying tanking is the best way to go seem to fundamentally misunderstand that a pro sports franchise isn't going to intentionally and repeatedly put an unwatchable product on the ice season after season in hopes of stocking up on high picks.

The Wings were legitimately awful in 2020. To expect the Red Wings ownership to intentionally suck for at least 3 more years in a race to the bottom just isn't realistic. Fans won't support the team. Players won't want to play there. Coaches won't want to coach there. Young players will get demoralized from having no hope of being competitive.

I get that everyone wishes the Wings were still at the bottom because of this years draft but at some point you have to start trying to progress if you want to keep fans and make money.

I don't agree with this. You don't need to trade away all your top players and intentionally try to be the worst like Chicago. But in the same vein, you also dont' need to sign a bunch of stopgap players before you have the requisite core talent for those stopgap players to matter.

 

[SoupNazi]

We are literally bottom 10 right now...

Don't let facts get in the way of a good story, ever.

 

[DanielMarois]

We are literally bottom 10 right now...

With games in hand

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Let's say this is an alternative universe where we signed 0 UFA's, went into the season with like 20m cap space, played all the kids and actively tried to ice a roster that would get last.

Let's say we do all this and get last place but then get #3 in the lottery

Would you...

Be happy because we deployed the "right strategy" to maximize odds at getting a star but were unlucky

OR

Be mad because we were last and got pick #3

I can't get mad at bouncing balls. All I ask is for the organization to put themselves in the best position to acquire an elite player.

Changing the lottery system was idiotic in the first place because even a crappy lottery system still gives you the best odds of acquiring the talent you need to contend for a cup and the NHL did nothing to offer another path towards relevance. Now teams will just be terrible for even longer. Wooo hoo!

 

[Roy S]

I think any pick in the top 4 this year could be a franchise player. No matter what, based on current standings, Columbus and Chicago are getting an elite prospect.

 

[norrisnick]

I can't get mad at bouncing balls. All I ask is for the organization to put themselves in the best position to acquire an elite player.

Changing the lottery system was idiotic in the first place because even a crappy lottery system still gives you the best odds of acquiring the talent you need to contend for a cup and the NHL did nothing to offer another path towards relevance. Now teams will just be terrible for even longer. Wooo hoo!

"All I ask is for the organization is to lose as many games as possible."
-very sensible hockey fan

What happens if other teams are better tank commanders and you get cock-blocked from top 5 picks? Do you trade away Seider? Do you keep Ed in GR until he f***s off to the SHL?

 

[Reddwit]

Didn’t vote cause there was no “happy because we deployed the right strategy and it worked” option.

Like…the whole reason to tank this year was because the lottery system improved AND it’s the deepest draft in years. Getting a #3 pick that is as good as a #2 pick in most years (or in really soft years, a #1 pick) while simultaneously being the highest pick we’ve had as a team since the 80s is a massive win in my book. I mean, Carlsson is doing in his draft year what Kasper is this year. Fantilli is doing better in the NCAA than Jack Eichel did.

I think picking 6-10 in a year that’s 4 potential stars deep is far worse than tanking this year only to get 3OA.

"All I ask is for the organization is to lose as many games as possible."
-very sensible hockey

Lol so there’s *never* a case for tanking?

 

[Frk It]

Carlsson is doing in his draft year what Kasper is this year. Fantilli is doing better in the NCAA than Jack Eichel did.

Did we know that was going to happen going into the season? Cause I think both have exceeded what was expected for them a good deal.

Going into the season we know there was Bedard and we knew the #2 player had a KHL contract thru 2026.

 

[Shaman464]

Personally, I think that this team was a little beyond going for 1st overall. Seider and Raymond are true cornerstones of a winning team. We don't want to be putting them through a miserable season of uncompetitive hockey. Larkin can be part of a winning core. It's better that we keep him around and if we committed to tanking this year, that wouldn't have been possible.

I do think that we perhaps pushed a little too hard too early. Every signing should have been directed at supplementing what we have without costing us anything in the long term. The goal shouldn't have been to finish last, but 5th from the bottom. Low enough to get another true difference maker in this strong draft, good enough lottery odds that maybe we get Michkov/Bedard, but without trying to out lose the truly incompetent.

I hated it the day it was signed and I hate to keep harping on it, but I just can't understand bringing in Chiarot on that contract. Even if he was what we wanted to pretend he might be at the start of the year, he was never going to be relevant for this team in 3 years when we're actually trying to win.

Copp is similar, but I do think that he'll be a useful role player for us down the stretch so I can understand it. He actually is what we wanted him to be, a strong veteran presence that can ease the burden as our team matures while covering a huge organizational weakness without breaking the bank.

The rest of our moves, Matta, Husso, etc are all cool by me.

Raymond is a fine player but he's not a cornerstone at this point and I would argue needs to show a lot more to be in that category. But even Detroit is still down a top line center 2 more wingers and a defender. They are still have massive gaps in their core that aren't being filled lower in the draft and can't be filled through FA.

 

[RedHawkDown]

"All I ask is for the organization is to lose as many games as possible."
-very sensible hockey fan

What happens if other teams are better tank commanders and you get cock-blocked from top 5 picks? Do you trade away Seider? Do you keep Ed in GR until he f***s off to the SHL?

Once again, these hypotheticals are a bit ridiculous.

If other teams are much worse and we still can’t get a top 5 pick, then that’s unfortunate. But it’s still more likely to succeed than the current approach - signing stopgaps and praying that non-top 5 picks become elite and carry us to being a contender.

Like someone else said, we’re not arguing that tanking is a good way to build a contender. It’s not a guarantee by any means. It’s just the best of multiple unlikely/difficult ways.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

"All I ask is for the organization is to lose as many games as possible."
-very sensible hockey fan

What happens if other teams are better tank commanders and you get cock-blocked from top 5 picks? Do you trade away Seider? Do you keep Ed in GR until he f***s off to the SHL?

As opposed to losing slightly less games and having worse odds at drafting elite talent? I'm good. Wings have been a bad team for 10 years now. They gotta get worse before they get better. It is what it is.

 

[Reddwit]

Did we know that was going to happen going into the season? Cause I think both have exceeded what was expected for them a good deal.

Going into the season we know there was Bedard and we knew the #2 player had a KHL contract thru 2026.

Nice try, but this draft has been touted as stacked for years now. It wasn’t touted as “top 2 heavy then a drop off.” And a big part of that was Fantilli.

 

[Shaman464]

"All I ask is for the organization is to lose as many games as possible."
-very sensible hockey fan

What happens if other teams are better tank commanders and you get cock-blocked from top 5 picks? Do you trade away Seider? Do you keep Ed in GR until he f***s off to the SHL?

Yzerman was very aggressive in FA and changed coaches and its left Detroit in an almost identical spot points and wins wise as they were last year at the break. Its not like the needle is moving that much. You can't count on broken players magically becoming healthy and B tier players to magically become elite. They need to build the right way and not blow opportunities to add truly elite talent. And the few wins that the new FAs additions and fester added in the hot start really amount to nothing but making it slightly harder to move forward.