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GDT: Hurricanes at Oilers

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Gocanes0506 said:
The problem is Gibson hasn’t been good for a long time. Add in their young goalie hasn’t panned out so a meh Gibson is going to cost a bad overpay to get. He isn’t worth it.

Markstrom had that bad finger injury. Calgary’s defense hasn’t done him any favors but he hasn’t looked that sharp the last 2 years either

If HD chances are our concern then neither really are an upgrade.

Kotchetkov has a high save percentage on HD chances than Gibson (.032 difference) and is within .002 of Markstrom.

There isn’t a simple solution here and going to get a big name will either a lot of cap or cost a lot of assets unnecessarily. Everyone will hang banners over a smaller trade but it is the better move.
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Andersen's HDSV% was worse than Gibson's his last 4 seasons in Toronto. It was the main reason I didn't want to trade for or sign Andersen:
.808, .800, .806, .780 Andersen's last 4 years in Toronto (all situations.)

.785, .829, .827, .822 Gibson's last 4 years in Anaheim (.822 is this season, all situations.)

I see Kochetkov with a .724 HDSV this season in all situations on Natural Stat Trick. I assume that now includes last night.

I'd love to find a smaller move that could help, but the only realistic one I see is taking a flier on Driedger based on his play in the AHL.
 
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Chrispy said:
Andersen's HDSV% was worse than Gibson's his last 4 seasons in Toronto. It was the main reason I didn't want to trade for or sign Andersen:
.808, .800, .806, .780 Andersen's last 4 years in Toronto (all situations.)

.785, .829, .827, .822 Gibson's last 4 years in Anaheim (.822 is this season, all situations.)

I see Kochetkov with a .724 HDSV this season in all situations on Natural Stat Trick. I assume that now includes last night.

I'd love to find a smaller move that could help, but the only realistic one I see is taking a flier on Driedger based on his play in the AHL.
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in fairness I did say save above expected percentage.

just means our HD chances against dont have a lot of save probability

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
 
This Erin Manning person pops up on my For You tab once in a while … which is too much.

This happens EVERY year. The mid-season swoon. I agree if it’s pointed out “this feels different.” It does. Because the goaltending is atrocious and the #1 guy isn’t coming back.

The buy-in hasn't changed … but, the players have gotten older. Specifically on D. Plus Staal.

Add in the fact that there are no absolute stars, and Svech (for good reason) and Necas (no good reason) are no-shows, well, we see inconsistency.

I don’t think it’s far off. “Make a f***ing save” has never felt more right. But “the future” has to step up, now.
 
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It also doesn't help that the ones carrying us early in the season (TT and KK) have not really been factors of late. Not that it's their fault, as they shouldn't be expected to carry the team for long, but if they're not going and Svech and Necas aren't going, then you've got Aho and Jarvis trying to produce the entire offense the entire game, and that's simply not going to work.
 
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So it appears that we’re not looking at a late season presidents trophy battle. That’s ok, Florida made a run to the finals from the 8 seed last year, the key is how you’re playing in March, not December. Every ridiculous loss like last night is frustrating, but more important is the team trajectory which is flat at best. But flat will get us a playoff slot and three months to figure out how to solve the multitude of problems that affect this team.
 
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Gocanes0506 said:
So we can accrue cap space while trades are unlikely. Trades generally start after January
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Yep. Remember, when you're using LTIR, you don't accrue space. So you leave him on the roster as long as possible until you have the replacement player.

The other question will be if he winds up medically retiring- in which case I think you can fully remove the cap hit and claim accrued space going back to the first game he missed due to medical issues. If that's the way it goes, and you wait until confirmation, you have room to go big game hunting.

The team knows the cap and Freddy's medical situation better than any of us do. I'm sure they're doing the right thing on that front. The question is whether we'll have a goalie with a Freddy return or a trade or if we're gonna have to run Raanta/Koochie out in the playoffs.
 
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Raanta really played great against Boston and NY in the playoffs 2 years ago. I wouldn’t want to have to count on him doing it again though
 
cptjeff said:
Yep. Remember, when you're using LTIR, you don't accrue space. So you leave him on the roster as long as possible until you have the replacement player.

The other question will be if he winds up medically retiring- in which case I think you can fully remove the cap hit and claim accrued space going back to the first game he missed due to medical issues. If that's the way it goes, and you wait until confirmation, you have room to go big game hunting.

The team knows the cap and Freddy's medical situation better than any of us do. I'm sure they're doing the right thing on that front. The question is whether we'll have a goalie with a Freddy return or a trade or if we're gonna have to run Raanta/Koochie out in the playoffs.
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He is signed next year too. Does that amount get worked into Canes cap (and I presume would also be LTIR'd)?
 
cptjeff said:
Yep. Remember, when you're using LTIR, you don't accrue space. So you leave him on the roster as long as possible until you have the replacement player.

The other question will be if he winds up medically retiring- in which case I think you can fully remove the cap hit and claim accrued space going back to the first game he missed due to medical issues. If that's the way it goes, and you wait until confirmation, you have room to go big game hunting.

The team knows the cap and Freddy's medical situation better than any of us do. I'm sure they're doing the right thing on that front. The question is whether we'll have a goalie with a Freddy return or a trade or if we're gonna have to run Raanta/Koochie out in the playoffs.
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I would be surprised to hear Freddie forfeit all that pay by retiring instead of LTIRetiring

chaz4hockey said:
He is signed next year too. Does that amount get worked into Canes cap (and I presume would also be LTIR'd)?
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If he retires, his cap hit goes away
 
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Gocanes0506 said:
I would be surprised to hear Freddie forfeit all that pay by retiring instead of LTIRetiring


If he retires, his cap hit goes away
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they could at least plan for LTIR next year like they did with Gardiner.

This year, LTIR only makes sense if they make a deal for a replacement goalie and accept there won’t be space for a forward at the deadline.
 
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