How will the rising cap impact the length of rebuilds?

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'm not talking about this coming season when the cap is 95 million, but a year from now It's 104, 2 years from now It's projected to be 113-118 million.

Even pre cap I don't remember any team, even the Rangers and Wings who spent ALL the money, I don't remember any team spending 100+ million, it might have happened but I don't remember it.

But it will now, and with the cap being so high I'm wondering if we see the end of the traditional 4-6 year rebuild and instead see teams draft high once, MAYBE twice and just buy their way out of the rebuild after that.

Especially if that pick is a top center.

I think we might see a return to the pre cap days almost because the cap is going to exist but after this coming season It's going to be at a point where It's so high that it does not matter.

It will be basically irrelevant

 

[ForumNamePending]

Ya, I think it will depend somewhat on if a rapidly rising cap creates a scenario where a bunch of teams start setting their own internal salary budget below the league set cap.

Teams aren't going to be able to buy their way out of a rebuild faster if just about every team is still willing and able to spend to the cap.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I disagree that the cap "is getting so high it won't matter".

It just means salaries will slowly start going up on average. Players who "earn" 2M right now might be getting paid around 4M in a few years.

The star players in the league get their contracts based on % of team cap, not just the number.

 

[Khelandros]

I'm not talking about this coming season when the cap is 95 million, but a year from now It's 104, 2 years from now It's projected to be 113-118 million.

Even pre cap I don't remember any team, even the Rangers and Wings who spent ALL the money, I don't remember any team spending 100+ million, it might have happened but I don't remember it.

But it will now, and with the cap being so high I'm wondering if we see the end of the traditional 4-6 year rebuild and instead see teams draft high once, MAYBE twice and just buy their way out of the rebuild after that.

Especially if that pick is a top center.

I think we might see a return to the pre cap days almost because the cap is going to exist but after this coming season It's going to be at a point where It's so high that it does not matter.

It will be basically irrelevant

 

[Captain Mountain]

I think something people aren't prepared for is that some teams wont want to/be able to spend to the cap. One thing the flat cap did is it made it easier for lower revenue teams to spend to the cap. Historically when the cap went up more consistently, some teams wouldn't spend to the cap or would only spend to the cap if they were competitive.

 

[TheBeard]

The rising cap only helps teams currently in contender status so they can continue adding yearly to hopefully get them over the hump.

This hurts rebuilding teams because a) all their young kids still on ELCs will be paid accordingly and b) teams in cap trouble won't be so desperate to shed salary knowing they'll have more room to work with the following season(s).

 

[Crow]

The rising cap only helps teams currently in contender status so they can continue adding yearly to hopefully get them over the hump.

This hurts rebuilding teams because a) all their young kids still on ELCs will be paid accordingly and b) teams in cap trouble won't be so desperate to shed salary knowing they'll have more room to work with the following season(s).

Yeah and they can keep guys that may have made it to free agency if they choose.

It’s definitely not helping teams who don’t have their core locked up yet.

 

[Breakers]

Nope

Marner is a rarity to hit free agency

8th year is still valuable

Top players salaries will continue to increase
Bottom players get pinched

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah and they can keep guys that may have made it to free agency if they choose.

It’s definitely not helping teams who don’t have their core locked up yet.

It's also gonna be harder to lock up RFAs coming off their ELCs. They're gonna want bridge deals now to maximize their potential earning based on the expected cap down the road. It's gonna be impossible to get any player locked up now to bargain deals now that the NHL has come out publicly and acknowledge the cap is gonna be like 30% higher in just a few seasons.

 

[TheBeard]

Nope

Marner is a rarity to hit free agency

8th year is still valuable

Top players salaries will continue to increase
Bottom players get pinched

I'm actually anticipating less max-term deals. Unless teams are willing to pay based on the expected cap down the road, which would be massive overpays now just to get players on market value in a few years.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Ya, I think it will depend somewhat on if a rapidly rising cap creates a scenario where a bunch of teams start setting their own internal salary budget below the league set cap.

Teams aren't going to be able to buy their way out of a rebuild faster if just about every team is still willing and able to spend to the cap.

I think there are going to be a lot of teams that can't spend 100+ million, I think there will be teams having a hard time hitting the floor.

I remember the pre cap days, not everybody was equal

 

[TheBeard]

I think there are going to be a lot of teams that can't spend 100+ million, I think there will be teams having a hard time hitting the floor.

I remember the pre cap days, not everybody was equal

I think between the rising cap and the league's indifference to things like the no-tax advantage and LTIR, they're sort of saying they don't really care about parity. It's on the cusp of watering down the competition like they've done in baseball.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think something people aren't prepared for is that some teams wont want to/be able to spend to the cap. One thing the flat cap did is it made it easier for lower revenue teams to spend to the cap. Historically when the cap went up more consistently, some teams wouldn't spend to the cap or would only spend to the cap if they were competitive.

I agree we are going to go back to the days where we have teams that can spend and teams that can't.

Just like it was pre cap except this time there technically is one.

And I say technically because once it hits 100+ million I don't think it will matter anymore.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I agree we are going to go back to the days where we have teams that can spend and teams that can't.

Just like it was pre cap except this time there technically is one.

And I say technically because once it hits 100+ million I don't think it will matter anymore.

Its not going to be like pre-cap. There's more revenue sharing and the richest teams ability to spend is curtailed. If there was no cap you'd see teams like the Leafs, Rangers, Canadiens, Bruins, etc. with payrolls significantly higher than the salary cap and top players would be paid a lot more than they are now. It took the NHL until 2011-2012 to reach the pre-cap annual compensation of top players.

 

[wmupreds]

I'm not talking about this coming season when the cap is 95 million, but a year from now It's 104, 2 years from now It's projected to be 113-118 million.

Even pre cap I don't remember any team, even the Rangers and Wings who spent ALL the money, I don't remember any team spending 100+ million, it might have happened but I don't remember it.

But it will now, and with the cap being so high I'm wondering if we see the end of the traditional 4-6 year rebuild and instead see teams draft high once, MAYBE twice and just buy their way out of the rebuild after that.

Especially if that pick is a top center.

I think we might see a return to the pre cap days almost because the cap is going to exist but after this coming season It's going to be at a point where It's so high that it does not matter.

It will be basically irrelevant

Nobody spent $100 million in raw money, but Detroit had a $78M payroll in 2004 which equates to $133M in today's dollars.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nope

Marner is a rarity to hit free agency

8th year is still valuable

Top players salaries will continue to increase
Bottom players get pinched

8th year doesn’t matter, MM takes shorter term just like Matthews,
If MM stays in Toronto, he wouldn’t take an 8 year.

 

[Breakers]

8th year doesn’t matter, MM takes shorter term just like Matthews,
If MM stays in Toronto, he wouldn’t take an 8 year.

Matthews becomes a UFA at 30
Marner is 28 already

Not even remotely the same situations

 

[StreetHawk]

I'm not talking about this coming season when the cap is 95 million, but a year from now It's 104, 2 years from now It's projected to be 113-118 million.

Even pre cap I don't remember any team, even the Rangers and Wings who spent ALL the money, I don't remember any team spending 100+ million, it might have happened but I don't remember it.

But it will now, and with the cap being so high I'm wondering if we see the end of the traditional 4-6 year rebuild and instead see teams draft high once, MAYBE twice and just buy their way out of the rebuild after that.

Especially if that pick is a top center.

I think we might see a return to the pre cap days almost because the cap is going to exist but after this coming season It's going to be at a point where It's so high that it does not matter.

It will be basically irrelevant

Mindset does have to change. We were in a flat cap era plus the PA's desire to cut down on escrow which did balloon into the teens as a % and got that into a more reasonable rate (cutting that high more than half).

With the cap rising, so long as the PA sees escrow maintain its level, then the cap will go up. With the floor rising, and now that we are well past the players with the backdiving contract. I think Webber's is the last one still on the books, as Sid's (though he played all of the years) is done that contract after this past season, teams will need to acquire players and pay them. The spread on a $105 mill cap is what like $30 mill? So, you have to spend to mid $70's soon?

If a team has to spend the money, probably the owner will expect to see some results. But

 

[StreetHawk]

It's also gonna be harder to lock up RFAs coming off their ELCs. They're gonna want bridge deals now to maximize their potential earning based on the expected cap down the road. It's gonna be impossible to get any player locked up now to bargain deals now that the NHL has come out publicly and acknowledge the cap is gonna be like 30% higher in just a few seasons.

For the top end guys who come in at 19 or even 20, you are still best to get term of 6 years on the 2nd contract to get to age 28 or 29. That sets you up to get that final big contract to take you to 36/37. Going bridge, that takes you to like 25 or 26, you get more money on contract 3, but end contract 3 at like 33/34. Never know if an injury will destroy your value, like Couturier/Landy. If they went bridge then max term probably would not get a 4th contract with their back and knee issues now.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Matthews becomes a UFA at 30
Marner is 28 already

Not even remotely the same situations

Ya neither of them has taken a max deal yet, they aren’t about to start.

 

[Breakers]

Ya neither of them has taken a max deal yet, they aren’t about to start.

He’s had one opportunity to
LOLOLOL

 

[Golden_Jet]

He’s had one opportunity to
LOLOLOL

He’s a me me player , was just pointing out he’s won’t go max.

 

[JKG33]

This only feels different and freeing because we had a near flat cap for so many years in a row.

In reality salaries will just continue to increase at a rate that matches the cap, and within a year or two most good teams will be capped out again.

 

[jitterbug]

lol teams like the Oilers boutta be subsidizing half the league?

 

[TheBeard]

There's more revenue sharing and the richest teams ability to spend is curtailed.

Revenue sharing is the equivalent of a government handout. More than a few owners will be perfectly content squeaking by on the floor because the combination of merch/gate revenue and what they'll get from the league will be a profit.