Speculation: How was Luce never fired?

[Android 16]

Perhaps you are forgetting the 2 out of 3 Calder trophies in the past 3 years. (See your username for example).

The Jonathan Huberdeau selection was a no-brainer once Landeskog was taken off the board. The Ekblad decision was arguably a no-brainer. Of course there's always speculation when you are coming off a horrid season where it seems like the team is going in no direction. I'm not saying Ekblad was a lock like McDavid, but it made a ton of sense for the Panthers who had no legit prospect on defense since Gudbranson turned out to be a dud. Ekblad said it himself in one of the team interviews with the Panthers, "I know you guys need a strong right-shot defenseman". The Barkov pick was a gamble since it was passing on a legit stud like Jones and a highly touted offensive prospect in Jo Drouin. Of course, now it's looking like a pretty incredible pick considering where Barkov fits on our team. The Barkov pick is holding up to be quite impressive at the moment.

As to your one hit after the first round comment, we will see if you hold the same stance after Rocco starts seeing a regular NHL shift.

Very possible he fits into the top-six and also very possible he fits no where and eventually gets moved.

Not to mention Jakob Markstrom who will be an NHL goalie next year.

Sure he might get forced into the NHL next year. But, will he be good? That's the important question.

McCoshen will be an NHLer

That's a stretch. We have no clue if he will ever pan out and likely won't find out for another 2-3 years as he is opting to return to the NCAA and will probably likely play in the AHL before seeing the NHL.

Petrovic made the jump this year and Zach Hyman will get a crack at the Leafs lineup next year.

Petrovic "made the jump" because of Dylan Olsen's shortcomings. I agree we need to see what Petrovic can offer full time. However, again will he be good? And by good I mean not contributing to the team sucking and does he provide some offense? We'll know soon enough.

Zach Hyman will get a crack at the Leafs lineup next year.

Good thing Hyman played with Larkin last season otherwise not even the rebuilding Leafs would've given this kid a shot. So Hyman will get a look with a team that will not be competing for the cup next season. Great for him. We'll see if he's good or not.

Matheson will be an NHLer

I sure hope so. A 1st rounder is a 1st rounder. You usually shouldn't squander those.

Hodges is in the system

Yes he is.

Delnov is Russian factor

The rare instance where they select a Russian. Of course he stinks.

Beauvillier will get a chance to be a pro next year

Well he already failed at that once. Hopefully second go round is better for the kid.

Nielsen (the 7th rounder mind you) is in fact no where to be seen.

He played for Troja-Ljungby in a Swedish hockey league overseas last year.

On the topic of 7th rounders I would like to draw to your attention Matt Bartkowski a regular impact NHler who we picked in 2008.

This was a good pick considering the round. Many would argue that guys like him are a dime a dozen. But good pick nonetheless.

 

[catsfan67]

how much does luce actually scout?

how good are our local scouts? player development? pro scouts? etc

most of the times, the bosses aren't the best and most knowledgeable people, but they know how to deal with people, and maybe luce is good at dealing with people. we don't have a superstar scout in håkan andersson etc

If you're looking for a good read the Art of Scouting is a good book. Believe it or not Luce is quoted many times and actually wrote the foreword, don't know if that speaks to his ability or not. Article a little outdated but up until this year Luce held the same position, so I would assume held the same responsibilities. Quoted saying he watched 158 games from August to March.

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/20..._1_area-scout-ann-marie-luce-florida-panthers

 

[Dread Clawz]

Luce definitely does his fair share of scouting, but I would argue our Midwest scout is pretty darn good. He's responsible for Bjugstad, Grimaldi, Rau, Brickley, Cowley, Matheson, McCoshen, Fidler, Wilkie, Downing and Wittchow.

Jere Kekelainen is also pretty good I think. Luce and Tallon said he was a big reason they decided to take Barkov, and it seems he also influenced the decision to take Lammikko.

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

Luce definitely does his fair share of scouting, but I would argue our Midwest scout is pretty darn good. He's responsible for Bjugstad, Grimaldi, Rau, Brickley, Cowley, Matheson, McCoshen, Fidler, Wilkie, Downing and Wittchow.

Jere Kekelainen is also pretty good I think. Luce and Tallon said he was a big reason they decided to take Barkov, and it seems he also influenced the decision to take Lammikko.

IT'S YOU WHO KEEPS VOTING FOR HIM IN THE PROSPECT POLLS.


I knew it, I've alerted the mods.

 

[Dread Clawz]

IT'S YOU WHO KEEPS VOTING FOR HIM IN THE PROSPECT POLLS.


I knew it, I've alerted the mods.

It's not me!

 

[LUUUUUIS]

TL;DR

Someone needs to pay for our team sucking for so long. I require justice!

 

[Juggernaut27]

Luce definitely does his fair share of scouting, but I would argue our Midwest scout is pretty darn good. He's responsible for Bjugstad, Grimaldi, Rau, Brickley, Cowley, Matheson, McCoshen, Fidler, Wilkie, Downing and Wittchow.

Jere Kekelainen is also pretty good I think. Luce and Tallon said he was a big reason they decided to take Barkov, and it seems he also influenced the decision to take Lammikko.

What's up with 'the other Finn' these days? Last I heard he was not planning to stay in the CHL next year.

 

[Rat Trick]

What's up with 'the other Finn' these days? Last I heard he was not planning to stay in the CHL next year.

He's going to play in FEL (Porin Ässät) next season. I think it's a good thing for him to play against men season or two, before trying to make a jump to the show.

 

[batting1k]

Gudbranson wasn't drafted to be a number 1 or 2 defenseman. Leading up to the draft, it was very obvious that he was nothing more than a defensive defenseman. He didn't put up many points in juniors and it doesn't look like he will do so in the NHL anytime soon. That doesn't make him a bad pick...of course there were better players to select at the time but hindsight is always 20/20. Most scouts probably would've taken Gudbranson with the third pick as well (he was ranked #4) or at least in the top 5 after Hall and Seguin.

 

[iam76]

we heard alot of his offensive potential... that it could develop..

its interesting to compare him to josh brown

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116033
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130517

who we all know is a defensive dman...

 

[RogerRoger]

You can't really compare the two of them. Gud was much better offensively and defensively. Gud is a better skater, Brown is still fairly slow. I hope Brown turns out to be a steal, I think the Panthers are doing a great job letting him develop, but let's not kid ourselves and say they were similar in Junior.

 

[iam76]

You can't really compare the two of them. Gud was much better offensively and defensively. Gud is a better skater, Brown is still fairly slow. I hope Brown turns out to be a steal, I think the Panthers are doing a great job letting him develop, but let's not kid ourselves and say they were similar in Junior.

you can compare anyone... fact is that brown is a shutdown defender who is developing well...

Eric is someone who has gone from a player that was seen as a top defender with o potential to now being ok with him on the third paring by some.... That's not what a 3rd pick in the draft should be .... Eric still has time but its getting to be that time the potential ends and you just are what you are...

 

[vendetta]

you can compare anyone... fact is that brown is a shutdown defender who is developing well...

Eric is someone who has gone from a player that was seen as a top defender with o potential to now being ok with him on the third paring by some.... That's not what a 3rd pick in the draft should be .... Eric still has time but its getting to be that time the potential ends and you just are what you are...

Maybe in 2 years if he is a bottom pair defender still then it's a disappointment. He had a solid year last year and looks on track to be top4 shutdown d for the next 10 years... that's a solid pick at 3 if that's the case and I haven't seen anything to suggest he won't be just that...

 

[Gaebriel]

How has Luce not been fired? Because drafting is hard and mostly luck? Man maybe some of these other teams should fire their scouting staffs as well.

2002 - 2014 Draft Rounds 1-3, excluding Goalies, total games played and points earned by drafted players

Florida
#Players, Games, Points, Avg Games/Player, Avg Points/Player
43 6063 2276 141.00 52.93
Detroit
31 4566 2080 147.29 67.10
Montreal
36 4938 1903 137.17 52.86
NY Rangers
38 3411 1389 89.76 36.55
Tampa Bay
32 2084 1051 65.13 32.84
Los Angeles
39 5398 2440 138.41 62.56
St Louis
46 4423 2323 96.15 50.50
Chicago
48 5081 2676 105.85 55.75


2002 - 2014 Same stats, All draft rounds included

Florida
#Players, Games, Points, Avg Games/Player, Avg Points/Player
96 6699 2366 69.78 24.65
Detroit
90 6250 2584 69.44 28.71
Montreal
86 7126 2984 82.86 34.70
NY Rangers
89 6043 2347 67.90 26.37
Tampa Bay
89 3915 1497 43.99 16.82
Los Angeles
98 6733 2778 68.70 28.35
St Louis
97 6496 2927 66.97 30.18
Chicago
113 8858 4042 78.39 35.77

 

[wint]

How has Luce not been fired? Because drafting is hard and mostly luck? Man maybe some of these other teams should fire their scouting staffs as well.

2002 - 2014 Same stats, All draft rounds included

Florida
#Players, Games, Points, Avg Games/Player, Avg Points/Player
96 6699 2366 69.78 24.65
Detroit
90 6250 2584 69.44 28.71
Montreal
86 7126 2984 82.86 34.70
NY Rangers
89 6043 2347 67.90 26.37
Tampa Bay
89 3915 1497 43.99 16.82
Los Angeles
98 6733 2778 68.70 28.35
St Louis
97 6496 2927 66.97 30.18
Chicago
113 8858 4042 78.39 35.77

Based on your numbers, it looks to me like Florida has the 2nd worst points/player of the teams listed. And that's with 10 top-10 picks during those years (including 6 top-3 picks!). Personally I agree that there's a lot of luck involved and that the Panthers' terrible development pipeline is even more to blame. But there's no way to spin such a long, well-documented track record of failure as anything but bad.

 

[catsfan67]

Based on your numbers, it looks to me like Florida has the 2nd worst points/player of the teams listed. And that's with 10 top-10 picks during those years (including 6 top-3 picks!). Personally I agree that there's a lot of luck involved and that the Panthers' terrible development pipeline is even more to blame. But there's no way to spin such a long, well-documented track record of failure as anything but bad.

I think that if we are correlating draft success to team success then Florida would be an outlier. Look at all the other teams on this list! They're some of the best teams in the NHL, but these statistics show that apparently they didn't draft too efficiently, but at least with those good NHL teams can recover from bad drafts. The reason why Florida's "terrible development" is so magnified is because there was no real solid NHL core group of guys to support the prospects through development. In many of the instances if these prospects get traded or sign with other teams they do much better than they could have with the panthers. So while the numbers don't lie, I don't see a direct correlation between draft "success" and NHL success because many of the teams on this list considered fairly "unsuccessful" (Detroit) did fairly well during the NHL season.

 

[I am not exposed]

Maybe in 2 years if he is a bottom pair defender still then it's a disappointment. He had a solid year last year and looks on track to be top4 shutdown d for the next 10 years... that's a solid pick at 3 if that's the case and I haven't seen anything to suggest he won't be just that...

I like Gudbranson a lot, but looking back, he was picked too high. If you look at 3rd overall picks in the last few years, well he is definitely one of the weakest. If there was a redraft with the knowledge we know now, he definitely would not go number 3. Probably somewhere in the 15-20 range at best. You can't really say Gudbranson was a solid pick at number 3 using hindsight.