How to recalibrate estimations of what a good goaltender is?

[CashMash]

I know the lack of reliable goaltending has been discussed before, but I noticed something recently. I got so used to seeing .910-.915 as the mark of an average-to-good goaltender and anything around .920 and beyond being elite that the current lull in goaltending really bothers me. Now, I understand that part of the reason is not a decline in talent but a reduction in equipment, calling penalties, and a general focus on offense. BUT...

Who is a reliable goaltender nowadays (season-to-season)? What should the benchmark for a good season be?

Before, we had the likes of Lundqvist, Price, Quick, Rinne, Rask, Bobrovsky, Miller, Bobby Lu and before that the likes of Brodeur, Kipper, Roy, Hasek, etc. Going far into the past we have the high-flying 80s and early 90s which seem more like today.

Bob is still around, but he is aging and has been inconsistent and admitted the big contract got to him a little.

EDIT:

I guess I should mention Helle, Shesty, Vasi and Saros as being current great goaltenders, but it used to be there was a surplus of quality goaltending. Now? Poof! Gone.

Click to read more...

 

[Perfect_Drug]

As heroic as an individual goalie can be, so much of it is tied to the quality of Dmen in front of them.

Is it coincidence that Shesty Vasi and Saros all have a Norris winner on their team?

 

[NVious]

Get better witchdoctors, it's pathetic that it's 2024 and the science of voodoo is still not being taken seriously.

 

[Romang67]

If you used to determine how good a goaltender was based on the league average save percentage, there's nothing stopping you from still doing that. The average is just lower now.

 

[zar]

I know the lack of reliable goaltending has been discussed before, but I noticed something recently. I got so used to seeing .910-.915 as the mark of an average-to-good goaltender and anything around .920 and beyond being elite that the current lull in goaltending really bothers me. Now, I understand that part of the reason is not a decline in talent but a reduction in equipment, calling penalties, and a general focus on offense. BUT...

Who is a reliable goaltender nowadays (season-to-season)? What should the benchmark for a good season be?

Before, we had the likes of Lundqvist, Price, Quick, Rinne, Rask, Bobrovsky, Miller, Bobby Lu and before that the likes of Brodeur, Kipper, Roy, Hasek, etc. Going far into the past we have the high-flying 80s and early 90s which seem more like today.

Bob is still around, but he is aging and has been inconsistent and admitted the big contract got to him a little.

EDIT:

I guess I should mention Helle, Shesty, Vasi and Saros as being current great goaltenders, but it used to be there was a surplus of quality goaltending. Now? Poof! Gone.

Half of people’s conclusions will be what they read &/or what they want to believe.

You mention Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Vasilievskiy and Saros as “good goalies”, Bobrovsky as a maybe… many also believe Demko is working his way into that upper tier I’m going to assume, like many, you think; Hill is average, Skinner is shit.

To me save percentage is a pretty decent gauge as to a goalie’s ability. I know there are XGA in all types of situations but there is some variance there as to rating the shot qualities.

Past 2 seasons:
Hellebuyck .921
Shesterkin .915
Saros .913
Hill .912
Demko .911
Skinner .910
Vasilievskiy .908
Bobrovsky .908

Skinner only has 2 NHL season under his belt and many pundits still want to believe the Oilers D core is below average and they play terrible team defence.

People will believe what they want to believe.

 

[x Tame Impala]

The league scoring environment has changed a ton over the last 5 or so seasons. Compare goalies to their peers and actually watch the games.

 

[Help]

I evaluate goalies based on gut, instinct, intangibles and vibes

 

[MessierII]

If you used to determine how good a goaltender was based on the league average save percentage, there's nothing stopping you from still doing that. The average is just lower now.

I don’t think that’s his point it’s more that there are less and less true #1 year in year out goalies in the league.

 

[Romang67]

I don’t think that’s his point it’s more that there are less and less true #1 year in year out goalies in the league.

That might be because OP is listing goalies as contemporaries that really weren't. They may have had a couple of years of overlap, but that's about it. Luongo and Miller are 8 and 7 years older than Rask, respectively. Hasek and Roy are 11 years older than Kipper.

There has always been a good number of goalies who are good for a few years and then fade. I don't think we're in a low point for goalies right now. I think we might be heading there, given the relative lack of young goalies who appear to be difference makers. But take a random year after the late 90s/early 00s (which was undeniably a golden age of goaltending), and I don't think the top goalies today are worse than any other year in recent history.

People just tend to forget about the mediocre long term starters like Ondrej Pavelec or fading starters like post-Wild Dwayne Roloson a few years after they retire.

 

[CashMash]

I don’t think that’s his point it’s more that there are less and less true #1 year in year out goalies in the league.

Yes.
Who is consistent now?

That might be because OP is listing goalies as contemporaries that really weren't. They may have had a couple of years of overlap, but that's about it. Luongo and Miller are 8 and 7 years older than Rask, respectively. Hasek and Roy are 11 years older than Kipper.

There has always been a good number of goalies who are good for a few years and then fade. I don't think we're in a low point for goalies right now. I think we might be heading there, given the relative lack of young goalies who appear to be difference makers. But take a random year after the late 90s/early 00s (which was undeniably a golden age of goaltending), and I don't think the top goalies today are worse than any other year in recent history.

People just tend to forget about the mediocre long term starters like Ondrej Pavelec or fading starters like post-Wild Dwayne Roloson a few years after they retire.

Regarding the contemporaries point, that's somewhat fair. I can't list every goaltender, though, and where is the cutoff for overlap? Age isn't the only factor in being contemporary. Hasek became a starter far later than most, for example.

What I am pointing to is that, a mere few years ago, you could easily get reliable goaltending. Right now, it seems very "swingy".

 

[CashMash]

If you used to determine how good a goaltender was based on the league average save percentage, there's nothing stopping you from still doing that. The average is just lower now.

That's not the only factor, but--given that it's a good predator of the vezina--it's certainly one to consider. Also, I wouldn't say .910 tended to be commendable, but at least the team made it work. There are some cases where team defense would lower chances but leave high-danger ones, too.
I recall Quick had some years that weren't statistically spectacular compared to his peers, but I wouldn't call him a bad goalie. I can't deny some of that mat be reputation. I am only human.