Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[Arzak]

It was a bad signing, his resume and the fact that UFAs tend to suck ass meant he'll demand top dollar.

It doesn't matter if its by 1M or 3M at this point. We had Kadri and Matthews. UFA changing teams are rarely cap optimal.

Enter Kyle Dubas

 

[Gabriel426]

JT has a year and 19 games of contract left plus any playoffs.

I was looking at it like beginning of the season.
If you can sign ROR for 4.25mil for 4 yrs or JT at 11mil for 2 years. I would choose ROR

 

[Leafsfan74]

He can redefine his game as a net front problem and has some streaks of faceoff dominance. Last year in the playoffs he really had some wheels in games including in a great OT winner so let's not underestimate when he can turn it on.

He needs to bring some hate for the opponent though. All teams need it come playoffs, the "us vs them" mentality.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

He’s probably $3 million-$4.5 million in value if you compare his impact to a ROR but probably a $7.5 million in inflated reputation. At $11 million, quite a deal for him.

Just thinking about what he’ll be in October 2025, there’s no way I want him back under any circumstances.

Prepare to be disappointed.

I was looking at it like beginning of the season.
If you can sign ROR for 4.25mil for 4 yrs or JT at 11mil for 2 years. I would choose ROR

Absolutely.

 

[Zybalto]

Per the athletic right now for this season:

Offensive percentile: 85th
Defensive percentile: 81st

Market value: 8.2 million

Even if the surge in his defensive game that started last season isnt an illusion, he will probably finish up the end of his contract around a 5-6ish million dollar player which isnt all that bad considering.

I'd say he's one of the most valuable pieces the Leafs have atm with Domi being a bust in the middle so far. Unless something is done at the deadline at the center position, we will be pretty screwed.

 

[darrylsittler27]

When we signed that deal I stated the last year would kill us. If we flop in the playoffs they need to convince him to retire.

 

[Gabriel426]

Per the athletic right now for this season:

Offensive percentile: 85th
Defensive percentile: 81st

Market value: 8.2 million

Even if the surge in his defensive game that started last season isnt an illusion, he will probably finish up the end of his contract around a 5-6ish million dollar player which isnt all that bad considering.

I'd say he's one of the most valuable pieces the Leafs have atm with Domi being a bust in the middle so far. Unless something is done at the deadline at the center position, we will be pretty screwed.

Trade JT for Lindholm and problem solve, lol.

For real, you can’t compare JT to Domi. Domi is a solid 3C, a complimentary player where JT despite being our 4th best forward, he is being paid like the best player on the team.
I know he didn’t sign the contact a few months ago but he needs to provide more than he had so far this season.
His defensive game is better but not like he was close to Bergy before that.
Not going to comment on his leadership as I am 99% sure none of us here are ever in the room with the Leafs thus we really don’t know.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

When we signed that deal I stated the last year would kill us. If we flop in the playoffs they need to convince him to retire.

Anyone that didn't expect a downturn by this point lives in a fantasy world.
As for the team flopping in the playoffs I fully expect he'll have plenty of help achieving that. You know, like he does every year.

 

[mikeyz]

When we signed that deal I stated the last year would kill us. If we flop in the playoffs they need to convince him to retire.

We will probably flop in the playoffs again, but there’s no way they will convince him to retire..

However, what Tre and Shanny should do come around February next year is have a sit down with him and have a wink wink nudge nudge convo with him and say something along the lines of "Johnny, I think we should tell the media that you "slipped in the shower" and pulled something and you’ll be out until “at least” the playoffs”

And I know that I'm dreaming big here. But imagine we add the proper pieces with that extra $11 million at the trade deadline and we miraculously go on a run in the playoffs and even win the cup? The meltdowns from the main board would probably crash this site for the entire summer. It would be absolutely epic. LMFAO

 

[hotpaws]

Anyone that didn't expect a downturn by this point lives in a fantasy world.
As for the team flopping in the playoffs I fully expect he'll have plenty of help achieving that. You know, like he does every year.

fans have been making excuses for him since his second year , this is just the latest!

 

[Zybalto]

Trade JT for Lindholm and problem solve, lol.

For real, you can’t compare JT to Domi. Domi is a solid 3C, a complimentary player where JT despite being our 4th best forward, he is being paid like the best player on the team.
I know he didn’t sign the contact a few months ago but he needs to provide more than he had so far this season.
His defensive game is better but not like he was close to Bergy before that.
Not going to comment on his leadership as I am 99% sure none of us here are ever in the room with the Leafs thus we really don’t know.

I don't think it really matters what he does to many folks. I mean, who has the most 5v5 goals for the Leafs the last 10 games? Tavares, right? He's out there centering a line, most of the time between two rookies, and they are going out against tough matchups and winning most of the them.

Meanwhile, he's pretty much off the now struggling PP and not playing any even strength minutes and folks in the back are looking at goals and points totals. If Tavares doesn't get sheltered 5v5, even strength or PP minutes, I assure you there will be less goals and points lol.

I don't mind going after the Leafs that are currently struggling but he's just not right now in the role he's been assigned to.

An all offense guy like Domi might be good 3C but he needs a strong defensive winger(s) to help him along. It's why he's found the most 2-way success with Jarnkrok this season.

Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander has maybe the worst underlying numbers of any 2nd line for this team that I can remember seeing. Something has to change there and if they want to continue the other lines, we gotta get a new center (and use Domi on the wing) IMO.

A lot of the stuff today just feels like a whine really. OMG, a sick team on a back to back and 3/4 nights lost to a rival on the road? End of the world!....and then the Leafs win a few and they disappear into the shadows.....

 

[NJG]

$6M overpaid.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

fans have been making excuses for him since his second year , this is just the latest!

I'm making an excuse for a signing I hated from day 1?
Can you explain to me why I would do that?

 

[Gabriel426]

I don't think it really matters what he does to many folks. I mean, who has the most 5v5 goals for the Leafs the last 10 games? Tavares, right? He's out there centering a line, most of the time between two rookies, and they are going out against tough matchups and winning most of the them.

Meanwhile, he's pretty much off the now struggling PP and not playing any even strength minutes and folks in the back are looking at goals and points totals. If Tavares doesn't get sheltered 5v5, even strength or PP minutes, I assure you there will be less goals and points lol.

I don't mind going after the Leafs that are currently struggling but he's just not right now in the role he's been assigned to.

An all offense guy like Domi might be good 3C but he needs a strong defensive winger(s) to help him along. It's why he's found the most 2-way success with Jarnkrok this season.

Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander has maybe the worst underlying numbers of any 2nd line for this team that I can remember seeing. Something has to change there and if they want to continue the other lines, we gotta get a new center (and use Domi on the wing) IMO.

A lot of the stuff today just feels like a whine really. OMG, a sick team on a back to back and 3/4 nights lost to a rival on the road? End of the world!....and then the Leafs win a few and they disappear into the shadows.....

I am actually okay with the loss to Bruins last night bc like you said, 4th game in 3 nights, back to back, flu...I liked the way they played like a pact and didn't take crap from Bruins and stood up.
The Monday game against the Bruins was pure crap though.

There is no denying that JT is not worth his contract at this point of his career. And I am glad he found his role on his new line bc he is being more effective playing that role than with Willie and Bert.

 

[keonsbitterness]

He's not a $5 million player but that's what the Leafs will re-sign him for... 3 years x $5 million.

Remember, you heard it here first.

$3m at most.

 

[hamzarocks]

i view him as a depth winger because that's how he plays , so he's worth about 2-3m

he was an anchor on the 2nd line and now he's killed his wingers production on the 3rd line

truthfully i don't even want him on the team

but he has has a big name so people will ignore how he's playing and still think he's a somewhat valuable piece , pretty much how fans ignored how bad Phaneuf was

While I see him as a 3-4M player I dont agree on the part of third line being killed

Our 3rd line wingers are ass and so is Tavares mostly

Bobby McMann rode 5 hot games and had like 9 pts in them. Hes a scrub.

Jarnkrok is declining to with his play being poor before he got injured

McMann shouldnt be in the NHL
Jarnkrok is a 4th liner whose 2 years from being out the NHL
Tavares ia 3rd line whose 3 years away from being done in the NHL

 

[hamzarocks]

Per the athletic right now for this season:

Offensive percentile: 85th
Defensive percentile: 81st

Market value: 8.2 million

Even if the surge in his defensive game that started last season isnt an illusion, he will probably finish up the end of his contract around a 5-6ish million dollar player which isnt all that bad considering.

I'd say he's one of the most valuable pieces the Leafs have atm with Domi being a bust in the middle so far. Unless something is done at the deadline at the center position, we will be pretty screwed.

45 pt centers who cant play defense arent worth 8.2M. The athletic with another bad model that can't capture the value of a clearly declining player with limited offering to a team

His production last 41 games is a 48 pt pace. He got booted off the PP and L2 since he was so ineffective

Being able to avoid getting scored on in a 3rd line role against lower QoC doesnt mean you're a good defensive player.

Tavares cant be a guy used to play defense. Bad IQ in the d-zone, slow, turnover prone when pressured. We have seen him making poor decisions in his own zone when pressured (VGK game)

 

[Zybalto]

45 pt centers who cant play defense arent worth 8.2M. The athletic with another bad model that can't capture the value of a clearly declining player with limited offering to a team

His production last 41 games is a 48 pt pace. He got booted off the PP and L2 since he was so ineffective

Being able to avoid getting scored on in a 3rd line role against lower QoC doesnt mean you're a good defensive player.

Tavares cant be a guy used to play defense. Bad IQ in the d-zone, slow, turnover prone when pressured. We have seen him making poor decisions in his own zone when pressured (VGK game)

Alot of what you wrote here is wrong though.

The 2nd line is worse.

His defensive numbers are the best of his career.

He's being line matched by the Leafs against other teams top guys and the other teams are trying to match their guys to Domi because Tavares is playing matchups so well. The current 2nd line is getting sheltered both in terms of QoC and ozone starts ATM.

Using a single example to try and define a whole year is not good to do. It's why, despite playing half their minutes together:

5v5 Goals against/60:

Tavares: 2.36
Nylander: 3.1

After a ridiculously small sample size against mostly bad teams in which there was crazy success, the PP looks awful without him on it IMO.

 

[Aashir]

Alot of what you wrote here is wrong though.

The 2nd line is worse.

His defensive numbers are the best of his career.

He's being line matched by the Leafs against other teams top guys and the other teams are trying to match their guys to Domi because Tavares is playing matchups so well. The current 2nd line is getting sheltered both in terms of QoC and ozone starts ATM.

Using a single example to try and define a whole year is not good to do. It's why, despite playing half their minutes together:

5v5 Goals against/60:

Tavares: 2.36
Nylander: 3.1

After a ridiculously small sample size against mostly bad teams in which there was crazy success, the PP looks awful without him on it IMO.

The thing is he is still a third liner, he can't produce with or without nylander and those defensive numbers drop a ton playing with nylander too. So either he can be a good defensive player who produces 50ish points, or he can be a bad defensive player who produces 50ish points depending on where he plays?

Moreover tavares also makes very egregious mistakes in the dzone, they may not be often but are costly. Whether it's the vegas turnover or going back to florida series where he just....falls? behind the net for no reason, tavares has awful lapses in judgement

I just don't see how that can be worth the evaluated 8 million by the Athletic, in theory his advanced stats on the third line suggest he should be an effective 2nd liner but we've been there and seen that. He can't keep up and can't finish at a top 6 level. So I just find it hard to see how he can be worth anywhere near 8 when most 3Cs make 3-5 which is a role suited for him at this point

 

[hamzarocks]

Alot of what you wrote here is wrong though.

The 2nd line is worse.

His defensive numbers are the best of his career.

He's being line matched by the Leafs against other teams top guys and the other teams are trying to match their guys to Domi because Tavares is playing matchups so well. The current 2nd line is getting sheltered both in terms of QoC and ozone starts ATM.

Using a single example to try and define a whole year is not good to do. It's why, despite playing half their minutes together:

5v5 Goals against/60:

Tavares: 2.36
Nylander: 3.1

After a ridiculously small sample size against mostly bad teams in which there was crazy success, the PP looks awful without him on it IMO.

He has a 5v5 - .921 OI SV%

If you think hes unlucky offensively, hes lucky as hell defensively

Nylander plays consistently higher matchups. Nylander has a .897 5v5 OI SV% Tavares has been reduced to a 3rd line crappy defensive 3C

Tavares isnt playing defensively any differently than he always does. The bad zonr exits, dumb puck decisions, in ability to stick to a man are still there. He just hasnt gotten scored as he has lower talent he is facing and the goalies are making saves when hes out there for now

Nylander also plays at a 100+ pt pace and carried the offense most of the year.

Tavares isnt producing in a 3rd line role, he isnt being asked to shut anyone down because he isnt capable of skating against quality players.

Tavares isnt worth more than 4.5M max right now..

 

[tuckerintensity]

People aren't going to want to hear this, but not very, and certainly less than 40%. If you look at his comparables based on signing age, games played, and points, he's right in the middle of those (cap percentage, but he's in the mix on AAV, too). While his play isn't what we expect recently, his PPG in Toronto (including this year) is similar to NYI (it's actually slightly higher here) and these are the names of some players within five points of his season total right now: Ovechkin, Seguin, Gaudreau, Malkin, Huberdeau.

Is he overpaid in a vacuum of a small portion of his seven year deal? Definitely. Every player is if you pick the right time frame. If you asked this question on December 31 though, he had 31 points in 34 games.

 

[Aashir]

People aren't going to want to hear this, but not very, and certainly less than 40%. If you look at his comparables based on signing age, games played, and points, he's right in the middle of those (cap percentage, but he's in the mix on AAV, too). While his play isn't what we expect recently, his PPG in Toronto (including this year) is similar to NYI (it's actually slightly higher here) and these are the names of some players within five points of his season total right now: Ovechkin, Seguin, Gaudreau, Malkin, Huberdeau.

Is he overpaid in a vacuum of a small portion of his seven year deal? Definitely. Every player is if you pick the right time frame. If you asked this question on December 31 though, he had 31 points in 34 games.

then I guess panarin is just the best contract of all time

his worst season is better than tavares's best. similar playoff performer too LOL

and he'd be overpaid at Deceber 31 too, go back to november 17 where he had 19 in 16 and then you'll get maybe a guy worth it, but he had to play with a guy who had 25 in 16 to do it.

 

[Zybalto]

He has a 5v5 - .921 OI SV%

If you think hes unlucky offensively, hes lucky as hell defensively

Nylander plays consistently higher matchups. Nylander has a .897 5v5 OI SV% Tavares has been reduced to a 3rd line crappy defensive 3C

Tavares isnt playing defensively any differently than he always does. The bad zonr exits, dumb puck decisions, in ability to stick to a man are still there. He just hasnt gotten scored as he has lower talent he is facing and the goalies are making saves when hes out there for now

Nylander also plays at a 100+ pt pace and carried the offense most of the year.

Tavares isnt producing in a 3rd line role, he isnt being asked to shut anyone down because he isnt capable of skating against quality players.

Tavares isnt worth more than 4.5M max right now..

Bertuzzi/Tavares/Nylander:
xGA/60: 2.36
GA/60: 1.98

Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander:
xGA/60: 3.38
GA/60: 3.33

Overall underlying numbers:

The old "terrible" line (Bertuzzi/Tavares/Nylander):
Shot differential: 56.43
High Danger Chance Differential: 63.18
xGF%: 60.16
GF%: 57.90

The new "great" line (Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander):
Shot differential: 52.61
High Danger Chance Differential: 34.57
xGF%: 37.38
GF%: 56.57

While there may be some luck behind the Tavares line GA being that low, their underlying defensive numbers are also great and Bertuzzi was blowing open nets like crazy at the time (remember) and I'm a lot more worried about the Domi line's numbers being completely out of whack. Don't get into a luck discussion here cause your probably on the wrong side.


Like I said before, Tavares's "crappy" 3rd line has the best goal differential on the team since the shakeup and he himself has the most 5v5 goals on the team over the last 10 games. At home, he was lined up against Pasta and away Pasta was aggressively targeted against Domi. So, yes, Nylander does get tougher matchups on the road I guess.

...and I'm not talking about Nylander on the whole right now. He's having an amazing season outside of not playing with Tavares or Matthews 5v5.....at least thats what the numbers are saying. Are you really that comfortable line matching the Domi line up against the Bruins top 2 lines? I know the Leafs arnt right now.

With the deadline over, this appears to be Tre's big gamble. The anti-Dubas so to speak....that the GF% numbers will hold up and the underlyings are an illusion.

 

[hamzarocks]

Bertuzzi/Tavares/Nylander:
xGA/60: 2.36
GA/60: 1.98

Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander:
xGA/60: 3.38
GA/60: 3.33

Overall underlying numbers:

The old "terrible" line (Bertuzzi/Tavares/Nylander):
Shot differential: 56.43
High Danger Chance Differential: 63.18
xGF%: 60.16
GF%: 57.90

The new "great" line (Bertuzzi/Domi/Nylander):
Shot differential: 52.61
High Danger Chance Differential: 34.57
xGF%: 37.38
GF%: 56.57

While there may be some luck behind the Tavares line GA being that low, their underlying defensive numbers are also great and Bertuzzi was blowing open nets like crazy at the time (remember) and I'm a lot more worried about the Domi line's numbers being completely out of whack. Don't get into a luck discussion here cause your probably on the wrong side.


Like I said before, Tavares's "crappy" 3rd line has the best goal differential on the team since the shakeup and he himself has the most 5v5 goals on the team over the last 10 games. At home, he was lined up against Pasta and away Pasta was aggressively targeted against Domi. So, yes, Nylander does get tougher matchups on the road I guess.

...and I'm not talking about Nylander on the whole right now. He's having an amazing season outside of not playing with Tavares or Matthews 5v5.....at least thats what the numbers are saying. Are you really that comfortable line matching the Domi line up against the Bruins top 2 lines? I know the Leafs arnt right now.

With the deadline over, this appears to be Tre's big gamble. The anti-Dubas so to speak....that the GF% numbers will hold up and the underlyings are an illusion.

The underlyings are an illusion intself for 1) Tavares sample size being very low in that role. Saying hes playing great defensively when he has a 5-6 game size with the 3rd line role already isnt enough to determine how he will perform going forward

2) Domi is a poor defensive player but like you showed, this line is producing and that is much more valuable than shot generation come playoffs. You can tinker L2 by dropping or raising Bertuzzi for Knies /maybe robertson but Tavares shouldnt be brought back to L2 where he was killing offense

3) Your post on the athletic was pretending Tavares at 8.2M is a good valuation. No team would give Tavares that much. We couldnt deal him for free at 8M (3M retention). Hes a truly horrible contract as his defensive abilities are non existent based on a career prior to this year as a sample size. His offense having died at 5v5 + PP shows he is unable to be relied upon as a top 6 player

Hes a 4 maybe 4.5M Center now. He has 45 pts in 61 games. 19 games to get 15 pts and finish the year with 60 despite half the time with a scorching hot Nylander and performing PP

If you are watching the leafs play I dont get how you can see Tavares providing 8.2M in value?

 

[666]

The only way that Tavares can provide any real value is to replace Knives and his 26 points on Matthews' left wing.