How much of prospects busting is "their fault"?

[Horvat1C]

Pointing out that they had three consecutive Calder finalists doesn't say anything about the Canucks' prospect development because Boeser, Pettersson and Hughes skipped the minor leagues, went straight from the NCAA or the SHL to the NHL and were immediately successful.

Boeser went straight from North Dakota to the Canucks in the spring of 2017, suited up immediately and scored 4 goals in 9 games before the season ended. Quinn Hughes went straight from Michigan to the Canucks in the spring of 2019 and had 3 assists in 5 games before the season ended. Pettersson went from MVP in the Swedish Hockey League to starting the 2018-19 season with the Canucks, had 3 goals and 2 assists in his first 2 games and 10 goals and 6 assists in his first 10 games.

The Canucks did nothing to develop these guys. They arrived already good.

That was the Canuck way during those years. A player had to be an immediate NHL success, be a goaltender or wait until he went elsewhere to succeed or he wasn't going to make it.

Given that the Canucks had their own high first round disappointments (Virtanen and Juolevi) who turned out worse than Lafreniere and Kakko have, what is there to make one think that Lafreniere and Kakko would have done better in Vancouver?

The Canucks used their high end rookies as their best players almost immediately and steadily increased their responsibilities. Contrast that with the Rangers who buried their high end rookies and did not play them in situations that fit their skillset, like the powerplay or other offensive situations. That has to do with the way both teams were built, but also the mindset in how you are going to treat your rookies in terms of ice time and opportunity.

Lafreniere would have started in the top-6 and PP1. Same with Kakko.

 

[Bank Shot]

The Canucks used their high end rookies as their best players almost immediately and steadily increased their responsibilities. Contrast that with the Rangers who buried their high end rookies and did not play them in situations that fit their skillset, like the powerplay or other offensive situations. That has to do with the way both teams were built, but also the mindset in how you are going to treat your rookies in terms of ice time and opportunity.

Lafreniere would have started in the top-6 and PP1. Same with Kakko.

Perhaps the high end rookies in NY just didn't show anything when given opportunities.
Rangers certainly didn't have any problems breaking in a bunch of rookie D men which is a harder position to be competent in at the NHL level.

Fox got played in a prime time role right away. Guys like Lindgren, Miller, Schneider all got playing time despite being young.

 

[Goose]

The higher the pick the more it’s their fault typically, as high pedigree picks get lots of chances compared to later round picks.

 

[Elvs]

0%

It's not kids "fault" that the NHL is a multi billion dollar bussiness and have teams invest in their futures.

 

[johan f]

It is too big gap between junior hockey and NHL. There are fewer young high picks that makes impact today than before. So if looking ro blame someone we need to point att those training/coaching junior players. The culture has gone south within juniors when it comes to preparing for adult hockey and 200 foot hockey.

 

[CashMash]

Like others have said, I think it depends on the prospect. Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Malkin and those types of talents would likely succeed anywhere. Edmonton wasn't looking too hot early on, but McDavid still reached his potential. Others may need a good environment to thrive... Especially if the player is temperamental. If you struggle a lot early, it takes a lot to get that confidence back, I'd wager. Some might never get it back.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Some prospects are anomalies. They will succeed no matter what. But for most, the organization has to be able to develop them further after they draft them. It's not just the individual and their skill set. They have to fit their skill set within the team concept in the NHL. If that team is dysfunctional, right off jump that is a problem.
This is not an easy task to achieve for a prospect or an organization, no matter how much talent the prospect might have.
Because the human element is very impactful, like the prospect's confidence. If they lose that, it might take a lot to get it back. And some never get it back, and therefore never succeed. And confidence can be a very fragile thing for younger players especially. It takes a lot of good efforts by a lot of people to be able to develop these players well.

 

[McGarnagle]

Someone give me an example of a prospect that busted on a team that wouldn’t have busted on another.

Boucher would have busted anywhere else, but I always wonder if Yakupov could have carved himself a second line power play career. 30 goal, 20 assist kind of guy if he was deployed better.

It's purely speculation and armchair psychology, but I've always had this sense that the circumstances of his draft pick just completely ruined Zach Senyshyn's chances of ever becoming anything. Massive reach, but still projected to be a solid late 2nd/early 3rd round pick and a decent NHL depth forward. But the weight of being the face of the worst draft blunder in the history of the NHL was heavy on him. It's a lot of pressure to get over, and he never developed whatsoever in the AHL and obviously never did anything in the NHL.

I feel like if he were drafted anywhere else he doesn't come with that baggage and maybe could've hung as a fourth liner in the league for a while.

 

[Rebels57]

Scouts realllllly need to start putting a bigger emphasis on prospects that process and play the game fast. A lot of these recent top draft picks that are busting all fit the bigger, slower mold. Patrick in 2017, Kotkaniemi in 2018, Kaako and Dach in 2019, Byfield in 2020, Slafkovsky in 2022. Their not all total busts, but they are not meeting expectations relative to draft position. Teams are loaded with smaller speedy checking forwards in their bottom 6 now and these bigger slower processors just don't have the time or space to be effective.

 

[amnesiac]

84%

 

[57special]

71%

 

[Cursed Lemon]

I mean it obviously depends on the development system.

Almost zero prospects survived the Red Wings 2010-2020 idiot-gauntlet.

 

[DelZottoHitTheNetJK]

In the NHL, it's entirely the players fault. You can either skate at this level or you can't.

This is not the NFL where rookie QBs have to have an entire scheme build around them to protect them.

 

[Horvat1C]

Perhaps the high end rookies in NY just didn't show anything when given opportunities.
Rangers certainly didn't have any problems breaking in a bunch of rookie D men which is a harder position to be competent in at the NHL level.

Fox got played in a prime time role right away. Guys like Lindgren, Miller, Schneider all got playing time despite being young.

Even now Lafreniere is not on PP1. I'm saying Lafreniere and Kakko did not get good opportunities in New York and you're saying they did. What opportunities did they get?

Their rookie defensemen were not 18-19 year olds. Fox was like 24. Miller and Schneider are good examples of guys who were developed.

 

[Bank Shot]

Even now Lafreniere is not on PP1. I'm saying Lafreniere and Kakko did not get good opportunities in New York and you're saying they did. What opportunities did they get?

Their rookie defensemen were not 18-19 year olds. Fox was like 24. Miller and Schneider are good examples of guys who were developed.

I'm saying that if Lafreniere and Kakko were deserving of playing high in the lineup, they probably would have gotten those roles.

Fox was like 20/21 when he started with the Rangers and he never had a problem earning opportunities. Likewise with the other D-men.

If the D-men had no problem getting good opportunities in NY, then why did Laf and Kakko struggle to get those same opportunities?

My theory is that they just didn't show enough to earn them.