DitchMarner
What's The Definition of Impressive?
These assertions are based on my observations, impressions and feelings (so there's bound to be a fair degree of subjectivity) as well as some basic stats and data (like goals, goals against, corsi etc). If people can use more advanced stats to rebut or refute any of these claims (or support any, for that matter), that would be welcomed.
My overall sentiment toward the 2024-2025 Maple Leafs is that while this team is clearly better than last year's version in some respects, I am not convinced the team is that much better overall.
I think it's obvious that the team is tidier and more comfortable in its own end this year, and I'm sure many opponents would acknowledge that the Leafs are harder and more unpleasant to play against in their zone compared to past seasons. However, it seems that much of the improvement in goals against can be attributed more to goaltending than to team defense. I believe data I've seen in the past has suggested that the team isn't actually that much better in terms of preventing shots or scoring chances against. However, I do want to say that I think there are things XGF% models and the like don't account for. For example, if the team is giving up X number of dangerous chances per hour of play five on five and that number isn't much better than last year's, it could be the case that goalies are generally seeing shots better (due to better positioning by defenders and boxing out in front of the net). Again, from watching, the play in front of the net seems tidier and guys like Tanev and McCabe aren't shy when it comes to doling out physical punishment.
My main qualms are that offensive production is lower and offensive possession time is down. To be fair, I think a lot of the lost offense can be attributed to the fact that Matthews hasn't been healthy all year and has been unable to shoot the way he can. However, it gets really frustrating watching this team often fail to control the play or maintain possession in the attacking zone. It seems rush chances are down as well.
It also seems the Leafs constantly squeak out wins this season (when they do win) whereas in the past, they would have some games where they would blow the opposition away with their offense. Sometimes you don't want to stress and want the easy win. They seem to always make it difficult on themselves this year.
Overall, I'm not sure the improvements in team defense and keeping the puck out of the net significantly outweigh the declines in offensive output and ability to possess the puck and play in the other team's end. I'm worried that this team is going to get so caught up in trying to defend that it's going to once again fail to score enough in a series-deciding game. It is important to keep in mind that often offense has been a bigger reason for TOR's failure in series than defense in recent years already. How many goals did the Leafs score in their final games of the series against CLB, MTL, TB in 2022 and BOS last year?
My overall sentiment toward the 2024-2025 Maple Leafs is that while this team is clearly better than last year's version in some respects, I am not convinced the team is that much better overall.
I think it's obvious that the team is tidier and more comfortable in its own end this year, and I'm sure many opponents would acknowledge that the Leafs are harder and more unpleasant to play against in their zone compared to past seasons. However, it seems that much of the improvement in goals against can be attributed more to goaltending than to team defense. I believe data I've seen in the past has suggested that the team isn't actually that much better in terms of preventing shots or scoring chances against. However, I do want to say that I think there are things XGF% models and the like don't account for. For example, if the team is giving up X number of dangerous chances per hour of play five on five and that number isn't much better than last year's, it could be the case that goalies are generally seeing shots better (due to better positioning by defenders and boxing out in front of the net). Again, from watching, the play in front of the net seems tidier and guys like Tanev and McCabe aren't shy when it comes to doling out physical punishment.
My main qualms are that offensive production is lower and offensive possession time is down. To be fair, I think a lot of the lost offense can be attributed to the fact that Matthews hasn't been healthy all year and has been unable to shoot the way he can. However, it gets really frustrating watching this team often fail to control the play or maintain possession in the attacking zone. It seems rush chances are down as well.
It also seems the Leafs constantly squeak out wins this season (when they do win) whereas in the past, they would have some games where they would blow the opposition away with their offense. Sometimes you don't want to stress and want the easy win. They seem to always make it difficult on themselves this year.
Overall, I'm not sure the improvements in team defense and keeping the puck out of the net significantly outweigh the declines in offensive output and ability to possess the puck and play in the other team's end. I'm worried that this team is going to get so caught up in trying to defend that it's going to once again fail to score enough in a series-deciding game. It is important to keep in mind that often offense has been a bigger reason for TOR's failure in series than defense in recent years already. How many goals did the Leafs score in their final games of the series against CLB, MTL, TB in 2022 and BOS last year?
