How Many Pts Does a Good 3rd Liner Score

AintLifeGrand

Burnin Jet-A
Apr 8, 2009
5,969
2,108
GreatestSnowOnEarth
Y'all think the 2nd/3rd line threshold is 50 pts in an ideal world?

I see people are rating Calle Jarnkrok as a 3rd line guy. Yes. he has played there most of his career, but production wise , in my mind he's more of a 2nd line guy just based on scoring.

How do y'all define a 3rd liner?
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
26,687
32,795
In the last full season, the threshold between 2nd and 3rd line was 24 5v5 points. It was also 24 pts in the year prior. That threshold is defined as the scoring of the 187th ranked forward, because there were 186 players playing on the top two lines at any given moment.

There's no reason to add PP production to that, because that has nothing to do with 2nd/3rd lines in reality, the second and third lines play at 5v5 only.

Calle Jarnkrok has had some years below the threshold but also some ahead. His recent 5v5 production ranks:

2017-18 -- 151st
2018-19 -- 253rd
2019-20 -- 179th
2020-21 -- 187th
 

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
10,641
6,154
Y'all think the 2nd/3rd line threshold is 50 pts in an ideal world?

In the last full season with 31 teams (so around 93 first liner, 186 top 6 players, 279 top 9 players):

99 forward scored 50 pts
142 forward scored 40 pts

1 line -to be in the top 93 forward: 52 points
2 line -to be in the top 186 forward: 33 points.
3 line -to be in the top 279 forward: 21 pts


50 points is borderline first liner very solid second liner, not the threshold between the 2nd and 3rd line on most team.

In 2017-2018 Montreal Canadian had only 2 forward above 50 points, 54 and 51 points in a very good year for them forward scoring wise (exceptional for some of their player) they had 5 with one above 60.

Seem to be between 25-30 ES point depending of the season
 

rumrokh

THORBS
Mar 10, 2006
10,151
3,370
Around 30 points for a "good" third liner. 35 is top end for 3rd liners who bring significantly more than just their points. But if a guy doesn't have depth to his game (possibly plays the powerplay), then I'd accept he's a 3rd liner even if he's scoring 40 or so.

50 points isn't just way high for 3rd line, that's high end for 2nd line.
 

GeeoffBrown

Registered User
Jul 6, 2007
6,279
4,319
I think a solid third liner should be a good two-way player that can teach offensively gifted young players to play the game "the right way"

Maybe he plays 1PK and 2PP?
 

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
86,433
143,303
Bojangles Parking Lot
Production shouldn't be a 3rd lines main aspect.
Not to say it shouldn't be there.

I wonder about this, though.

Traditionally you wanted your 3rd line to match up with the other team's top line and shut them down. The presumption was to win the game by doing better against the other team's grinders than they did against your own, and anything the grinders could chip in on either side was a bonus with game-tilting potential.

My impression is that modern analytics have called a lot of that into question. A team seems to do better in the long run if they simply score as much as they can from all 4 lines. I wonder what would happen if a team just went balls-to-the-wall firewagon with actual good players (not AHL scrubs) in their depth lines.

Thinking it through, I suspect that the real-world limits on this approach are:
1) The salary cap
2) The fact that playoff hockey is a shitshow which allows marginally skilled players to punch above their weight during the most important games of the season
 

threeVo

Registered User
Jan 5, 2010
3,792
1,686
Tampa
10-15 goals and 20-25 assists would be ideal. So between 30 and 40 on the higher end. Even strength with a few SHP mixed in
 

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