How many points will the Senators get with a new goalie?

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm aiming low to avoid disappointment. If we started the season off as bad as we did, if we were just in the fight for the playoffs after a coaching change, I'd like to believe I'd take it.

There’s nothing wrong with that.

It's like there’s 2 questions that need to be asked. How much improvement could we see in the standings if we had better goaltending? The 2nd question, is what are people’s definition of a good team? Is it just making the playoffs (half the teams do each year), or is it something more than that?

The poll makes it more objective by using the points in the standings as the metric.

 

[bert]

How many points will the Senators get next year if they have a new goalie:

a. Less than 100

b. Between 100 to 109

c. Over 110 points

Assume it's at least an average to above average goalie but not a Hasek/Roy/Brodeur/Hellebuyck level goalie.

This is my first poll, so hopefully I did it correctly.

Do they get 4 new defensemen to go along with Zub and Sanderson? haha.

 

[bicboi64]

There’s nothing wrong with that.

It's like there’s 2 questions that need to be asked. How much improvement could we see in the standings if we had better goaltending? The 2nd question, is what are people’s definition of a good team? Is it just making the playoffs (half the teams do each year), or is it something more than that?

The poll makes it more objective by using the points in the standings as the metric.

For me, before the season starte, being a good team would've been making the playoffs and have at least a 6-7 game series. Getting to the playoffs and dominating in the first round (especially a sweep) would be disappointing, but still an improvement.

A pleasant surprise would be getting to the 2nd round and getting some vital playoff experience. As of now, I don't know what my expectations are for next season. I guess for the off season, its move parts of the core, get a goaltender, a top 4RD, good coach, and then hope that we can at least contend for the wildcard.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Do they get 4 new defensemen to go along with Zub and Sanderson? haha.

LOL. I know you're just joking, but its probably not going to be 4.

Perhaps I’m reading the room incorrectly, but most of the GDT comments and ire is directed at goaltending. So, I suppose a question to ask would be if we had better goaltending this year, how much of an improvement in points (standings) would that have made?

 

[bert]

Same amount obviously

The Team defense is just bad

I mean they have the worst save percentage and expected goals save over the average in the league. So I mean this answer is not remotely close to correct. They literally cant have worse goaltending.

You give Korpisalo a good Team in front of him and his Save% will be .910-.920 as he has shown in the past many times. No debate about it

No chance, he is terrible. The softies he lets in are unprecedented. Its one every two games.

LOL. I know you're just joking, but its probably not going to be 4.

Perhaps I’m reading the room incorrectly, but most of the GDT comments and ire is directed at goaltending. So, I suppose a question to ask would be if we had better goaltending this year, how much of an improvement in points (standings) would that have made?

Goaltending is bad but the D core is one of the softest in the league so that doesnt help either. So many second chance goals or tip ins simply because our D dont control sticks in front or box out.

Bottom line is the goalies and the D need a complete make over.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I mean they have the worst save percentage and expected goals save over the average in the league. So I mean this answer is not remotely close to correct. They literally cant have worse goaltending.


No chance, he is terrible. The softies he lets in are unprecedented. Its one every two games.


Goaltending is bad but the D core is one of the softest in the league so that doesnt help either. So many second chance goals or tip ins simply because our D dont control sticks in front or box out.

Bottom line is the goalies and the D need a complete make over.

Those are reasonable thoughts, however it does seem like goatending is prime focus here on this board. It draws the most attention and ire by far.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

So, how did you vote? 100 - 109, or 110 & above?

Less than 100. I think we’d be in a race for 95-96 points.

Same amount obviously

The Team defense is just bad

Just look at the goals man. Not much a defence can actually do to prevent those shots. We would need to allow 10-12 shots a game to keep his GAA down. I don’t think that would even help his Save %.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Less than 100. I think we’d be in a race for 95-96 points.


Just look at the goals man. Not much a defence can actually do to prevent those shots. We would need to allow 10-12 shots a game to keep his GAA down. I don’t think that would even help his Save %.

So, the team isn’t that good then and we’ll just see a much smaller incremental improvement?

The feeling I get is that people think the team is good with very good players and it's only the goaltending that is holding them back.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don't know how to answer this, but it is incredible just how bad the goaltending has been.

Like, if Forsberg and Korpisalo didn't have contracts, do they even get league minimum offers in the summer. Just abysmal all around.

Korpisalo is the worst UFA deal ever handed out in Ottawa from the looks of it.

 

[Micklebot]

I think anywhere between 95-109 is plausible (assuming an average goalie), and a lot depends on the other things we do.

If all we do in the offseason is get a new goalie (and coach), we should be coming in around 95 pts

If we make some moves to balance out the D (like adding a Pecse or DeMelo and perhaps add some size on the bottom pair) I think that number rises to ~100.

If we also add a good two way middle six vet that can kill penalties, we might get into that 100-109 range

In terms of the poll, since all the other stuff isn't mentioned, I'll vote with the base of under 100.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I don't know how to answer this, but it is incredible just how bad the goaltending has been.

Like, if Forsberg and Korpisalo didn't have contracts, do they even get league minimum offers in the summer. Just abysmal all around.

Korpisalo is the worst UFA deal ever handed out in Ottawa from the looks of it.

Yes, this is where it gets challenging. Goaltending has been poor and the subject of much attention.

But, how much better would we be with better goaltending (at least average or a little above average)?

The most concrete metric is points (standings). It seemed like a good question to ask but defining the answers less subjectively & nebulously utiliizing black & white metrics seemed to in order.

I think anywhere between 95-109 is plausible (assuming an average goalie), and a lot depends on the other things we do.

If all we do in the offseason is get a new goalie (and coach), we should be coming in around 95 pts

If we make some moves to balance out the D (like adding a Pecse or DeMelo and perhaps add some size on the bottom pair) I think that number rises to ~100.

If we also add a good two way middle six vet that can kill penalties, we might get into that 100-109 range

In terms of the poll, since all the other stuff isn't mentioned, I'll vote with the base of under 100.

So, is that a. less than 100 points, or, b. between 100 - 109?

A 95 - 109 points answer covers a lot of ground & doesn’t require much conviction.

 

[Micklebot]

So, is that a. less than 100 points, or, b. between 100 - 109?

A 95 - 109 points answer covers a lot of ground & doesn’t require much conviction.

Well, I put my answer for the sake of the poll in the post (along with my rationale), and voted. 95-109 represents the degree of variability in what our team might look like next year, aside from a new goalie. How am I going to provide a firm answer when I don't have a firm roster to base it on?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

So, the team isn’t that good then and we’ll just see a much smaller incremental improvement?

The feeling I get is that people think the team is good with very good players and it's only the goaltending that is holding them back.

Well holding them from what would be my question. I don’t think a Better goalie makes up cup favorites. I think a better goalies makes us playoff contenders. Which is a normal stepping stone on the way to being a true cup contender. This team isn’t perfect. But we’re not the third worst team in the NHL. We belong right in that mix of teams battling for the wild card.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well, I put my answer for the sake of the poll in the post (along with my rationale), and voted. 95-109 represents the degree of variability in what our team might look like next year, aside from a new goalie. How am I going to provide a firm answer when I don't have a firm roster to base it on?

Ok, assume the same roster as this year except move out a goalie and substitute (add) another better one.

The premise is that goaltending is the issue as per the frequent discussions in here. So, there’s just one change and just one variable being examined.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well holding them from what would be my question. I don’t think a Better goalie makes up cup favorites. I think a better goalies makes us playoff contenders. Which is a normal stepping stone on the way to being a true cup contender. This team isn’t perfect. But we’re not the third worst team in the NHL. We belong right in that mix of teams battling for the wild card.

So, the team isn’t that good then, or poised and ready to make a big leap with a better goaltender then? Karlsson was traded in Sept. 2018, Brady has 6 seasons under his belt, so it's not like the team is being pushed at a fast pace.

 

[Micklebot]

Ok, assume the same roster as this year except move out a goalie and substitute (add) another better one.

The premise is that goaltending is the issue as per the frequent discussions in here. So, there’s just one change and just one variable being examined.

I did do that, it's my last sentence in the post, hence why I voted under 100 and why my second sentence was setting my expectation 0f ~95 pts if the only change was a goalie.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I did do that, it's my last sentence in the post, hence why I voted under 100 and why my second sentence was setting my expectation 0f ~95 pts if the only change was a goalie.

Oh, OK & my bad. I read your reply too quickly it seems.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Every time this team acquires an average to above average goalie they become a terrible goalie as soon as they put on the Sens sweater so I guess my answer is below 100 points.

 

[bert]

Those are reasonable thoughts, however it does seem like goatending is prime focus here on this board. It draws the most attention and ire by far.

Well its been horrid however they need to fix the D as well. Hoping Kleven is ready for third pairing duty. Then they need to get a hard RD and trade one of Chabot or Chychrun. Then get another depth D preferably RD haha. They have alot of work to do.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well its been horrid however they need to fix the D as well. Hoping Kleven is ready for third pairing duty. Then they need to get a hard RD and trade one of Chabot or Chychrun. Then get another depth D preferably RD haha. They have alot of work to do.

Yes, I tend to agree. There’s several areas to address: goalie, RD, re-sign Pinto, maybe a winger. Not sure of the Norris situation either or whether we can assume he just goes on LTIR. Then, people talk about a goalie buy-out on top of all this. I think we’ll reach some cap constraints much quicker than people realize. It should be a very interesting off-season.

 

[Big Muddy]

76% of votes are for less than 100 points. Not sure, but that doesn’t seem particularly optimistic or a big vote of confidence for the team and maybe it's a little surprising given how much attention has been focused on goaltending.

 

[dingbatz]

76% of votes are for less than 100 points. Not sure, but that doesn’t seem particularly optimistic or a big vote of confidence for the team and maybe it's a little surprising given how much attention has been focused on goaltending.

I think a fourth option, fewer than 90 points, would have been useful. Most people seem to think that we would be fighting for a wild-card spot (90-100 points) with better goaltending, and I generally agree.

 

[JD1]

There's also a multiplier effect here. We're almost 34 goals below average



Ok. So suppose we get average goaltending. We've also got a coach saying our compete level isn't where it needs to be. Personally I agree with that. If we're getting that average goaltending, how does that change score effects? How does it change compete level?



There's certainly a possible lift coming from knowing every night you can win.

 

[Micklebot]

There's also a multiplier effect here. We're almost 34 goals below average



Ok. So suppose we get average goaltending. We've also got a coach saying our compete level isn't where it needs to be. Personally I agree with that. If we're getting that average goaltending, how does that change score effects? How does it change compete level?



There's certainly a possible lift coming from knowing every night you can win.

Don't have to look too far back in Sens history to see the difference goaltending can make, the swap from Elliot to Anderson, or Lalime to Hasek both saw the teams confidence skyrocket,

 

[Burrowsaurus]

So, the team isn’t that good then, or poised and ready to make a big leap with a better goaltender then? Karlsson was traded in Sept. 2018, Brady has 6 seasons under his belt, so it's not like the team is being pushed at a fast pace.

Well no we had the worst coach in pro sports and the worst GM in pro sports. So correct. We are moving slowly. That wasn’t your question though.

With a better goalie we would be battling for a wild card spot. Which is quite an improvement over the basement of the nhl