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How many points will it take to make the playoffs (2014-15 version)?

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Ron said:
I haven't commented on this thread (at least I don't recall doing it), but the bottom line is these are mathematical projections. They do not take into account that teams tend to break their seasons into two parts: (1) before the ASG, and (2) after the ASG. This can be due to a variety of reasons, but it always seems to involve teams that (1) exceeded expectations in the first half of the season, and this ultimately caught up with them in the second half (see Toronto last season and what I expect will happen to Calgary this season), and (2) teams that did not meet expectations the first half of the season and have to play up to their expectations in the second half to qualify for the playoffs (see Kings). Of course, other events like injuries and trades can make a tremendous difference.

The Kings are a classic example of this. In 2012, they went 13-5-3 in their last 21 games to squeak into the playoffs after obtaining Jeff Carter. In 2013-14, they meandered their way all season long in 3rd place in the Pacific and didn't really pick up their game until getting Marian Gaborik at the trade deadline.

I don't put much stock in these projections since I do believe Calgary (and possibly Vancouver) are going to fade down the stretch, and that the Kings will pick it back up (but not as much as they probably should). I have no belief that the Sharks will ever be consistent this season and that the Kings may eventually end up in second in the Pacific, but that it may not be entirely upon great play by them to do so...because I also don't have a lot of confidence of consistent play by the Kings this season.

Bottom line, I do think the Kings will play better and get in. 2nd or 3rd in the Pacific.
Click to expand...

Trust in the Ron
The Ron knows
Ron Brings it everyday
 
After the games of 2/3/2015

Target: 95 points.
Kings' current pace: 89 points - 12th in the West, losing ROW tiebreaker (20) to both Dallas (21) and Minnesota (22).
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 85 points.

Points needed: 41
Games remaining: 32
Record needed: 17-8-7
Percentage needed: .641
 
I still have hope, but that "Record Needed" stat is eye-opening. I know they always say not to worry about other teams and just worry about your own team, but we're gonna need some help with other teams losing down the stretch.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 2/3/2015

Target: 95 points.
Kings' current pace: 89 points - 12th in the West, losing ROW tiebreaker (20) to both Dallas (21) and Minnesota (22).
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 85 points.

Points needed: 41
Games remaining: 32
Record needed: 17-8-7
Percentage needed: .641
Click to expand...

Ouch, not looking good so far. Its doable, but they've dug themselves into a deep hole.
 
Almost need a 650. win % just to hit 95 points.

Wow. Hole has been dug, no one blame but themselves.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 2/3/2015

Target: 95 points.
Kings' current pace: 89 points - 12th in the West, losing ROW tiebreaker (20) to both Dallas (21) and Minnesota (22).
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 85 points.

Points needed: 41
Games remaining: 32
Record needed: 17-8-7
Percentage needed: .641
Click to expand...

Only 13 home games left. 19 road games. Something like this. So, the record needed is even more daunting. So, you are saying we'll need points in 11 of the 19 road games left, and then go 13-0 at home.
 
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After the games of 2/8/2015

Target: 95 points.
Kings' current pace: 88 points - 10th in the West.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 86 points.

Points needed: 39
Games remaining: 30
Record needed: 16-7-7
Percentage needed: .650
 
After the games of 2/14/2015

Target: 96 points.
Kings' current pace: 92 points - 10th in the West.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 90 points.

Points needed: 34
Games remaining: 27
Record needed: 14-7-6
Percentage needed: .630
 
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After the games of 2/17/2015

For the first time in a while, the Kings are back into the playoff projections, meaning the needed target drops somewhat.

Target: 93 points. (Sharks/Wild project to 9th with 92 each)
Kings' current pace: 94 points - 2nd wildcard spot, would face Nashville in the first round.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 91 points.

Points needed: 29
Games remaining: 26
Record needed: 12-9-5
Percentage needed: .558

The five-game win streak has helped, but there's also been assistance in slumps by Minnesota and San Jose -- can't count on BOTH of those continuing, in my personal opinion.
 
Two things needed to assure a playoff position.

1) Start picking up points on the road.

2) Win the vast majority of games in overtime, and/or the shootout, if they are tied at the end of regulation.

Both have been the Achilles heal all season, and will be the Kings demise if they don't make it.
 
The Kings are starting to look like a 2nd or 3rd place team in the Pacific. With more games in-division that out of division they control their own fate.
 
After the games of 2/18/2015

Target: 95 points. (Wild project to 9th with 94)
Kings' current pace: 95 points - 2nd wildcard spot, would face Nashville in the first round.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 93 points.

Points needed: 29
Games remaining: 25
Record needed: 12-8-5
Percentage needed: .580
 
After the games of 2/21/2015

Target: 96 points. (Flames/Jets/Wild project to 8/9/10th with 95)
Kings' current pace: 96 points - 3rd Pacific spot, would face Vancouver in the first round.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 94.6 points.

Points needed: 28
Games remaining: 24
Record needed: 11-7-6
Percentage needed: .583
 
I bet it feels a lot better updating this thread now than two weeks ago, eh Hans?

Man, right back in the thick of things. Love it.
 
After the games of 2/24/2015

Target: 94 points. (Flames project to 9th with 93)
Kings' current pace: 97 points - 3rd Pacific spot, would face Vancouver in the first round.
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 95.4 points.

Points needed: 24
Games remaining: 23
Record needed: 10-9-4
Percentage needed: .522
 
After the games of 3/3/2015

Target: 95 points. (Flames project to P3 with 94, Jets project to WC2 with 97)
Kings' current pace: 94 points - out of the playoffs (lose ROW tiebreaker to Calgary 29-31)
Kings' current pace with home/road split: 92.7 points.

Points needed: 23
Games remaining: 19
Record needed: 10-6-3
Percentage needed: .605
 
How many games do Calgary and San Jose have left against Edmonton? If it's not many that can help.
 
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