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How many points will it take to make the playoffs (2014-15 version)?

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HansH

HansH

Unwelcome Spectre
Feb 2, 2005
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San Diego
Still mostly tongue-in-cheek at this point, but I need to get back into practice, since some of you masochists out there seem to actually enjoy following along with this mathematical exercise :)

(Does that make y'all "mathochists", then?)

After the games of 10/11/14

As of this instant, four teams (St. Louis, Winnipeg, Anaheim, and Arizona) are projected to tie with 82 points, with one of them NOT qualifying for the post-season. This would make the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 83 points, translating to a record of 37-35-8 (a percentage of .513). That would be enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific as well.

(We'll just gloss over the fact that the Kings currently sit at the bottom of the division... these are not the droids you're looking for...)
Click to read more...
 
After the games of 10/14/14

As of this instant, three teams (Dallas, Calgary, and Arizona) are projected to tie with 82 points, with only one of them qualifying for the post-season. This would make the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 83 points, translating to a record of 35-35-8 (a percentage of .500).

The current pace puts the Kings in the #1 wild card position.
 
A reminder -- in this early part of the season, these numbers will swing WILDLY as single wins and losses have much more of an effect up and down the table.

After the games of 10/16/14

As of now, Calgary is projected in the bubble position, just outside the playoffs with 98 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 99 points, translating to a record of 42-27-8 (a percentage of .597).

The current pace projects the Kings into the #1 wildcard position.
 
A reminder -- in this early part of the season, these numbers will swing WILDLY as single wins and losses have much more of an effect up and down the table.

After the games of 10/19/14

As of now, Arizona, St. Louis and Minnesota are projected in the bubble position, just outside the playoffs with 82 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 83 points, translating to a record of 33-35-8 (a percentage of .487).

The current pace (.750, 123 points) projects the Kings into a tie for the 2/3 position in the Pacific.
 
A reminder -- in this early part of the season, these numbers will swing WILDLY as single wins and losses have much more of an effect up and down the table.

After the games of 10/23/14

Going into tonight, San Jose is projected in the bubble position, just outside the playoffs with 92 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 93 points, translating to a record of 37-30-8 (a percentage of .547).

The Kings' current pace (.786, 129 points) projects the Kings into the #2 position in the Pacific, and they would host the Canucks in the first round (Anaheim would win the division and host Minnesota in the first round -- Nashville would host Calgary, and Chicago would host Dallas).
 
Standard disclaimer.

After the games of 10/26/14

As of now, Calgary and San Jose are projected into tied for 8/9th with 90 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 35-31-8 (a percentage of .527).

The Kings' current pace (.813, 133 points) projects the Kings into the top spot in the Pacific AND the West. They would host either Calgary or San Jose in the first round (Anaheim would host Vancouver in the first round -- Nashville would host Dallas, and Chicago would host Minnesota).
 
according to this article today in the Toronto Star, the teams that are in playoffs spots at Thanksgiving (quarter season mark ) majority of the time are in. It traced the date back to 1993 forward and concluded that 12.4 of the 16 playoffs spots are determined by the standings at Thanksgiving.


http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2010/11/24/statistics_show_leafs_playoff_chances_slim.html

NHL teams that occupy a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving find themselves in the actual playoffs 77.5 per cent of the time. And that, of course, is bad news for teams like the Maple Leafs, who find themselves outside today.
Click to expand...

So I guess if you have 23 points or more by then and are 4th or close, you have a good shot
 
Last edited:
deeshamrock said:
according to this article today in the Toronto Star, the teams that are in playoffs spots at Thanksgiving (quarter season mark ) majority of the time are in. It traced the date back to 1993 forward and concluded that 12.4 of the 16 playoffs spots are determined by the standings at Thanksgiving.


http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2010/11/24/statistics_show_leafs_playoff_chances_slim.html


So I guess if you have 23 points or more by then and are 4th or close, you have a good shot
Click to expand...

I wonder what percentage it is in the cap era.
 
Early season, results vary, void where prohibited, blah blah.

After the games of 10/28/14

The Blues are projected into the bubble position with 92 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 93 points, translating to a record of 36-30-7 (a percentage of .541).

The Kings' current pace (.778, 128 points) projects the Kings into 2nd in the Pacific. They would host the Canucks in the first round (Anaheim would win the Pacific and West and host San Jose in the first round -- Nashville would win the Central and host Dallas, and Minnesota would host Chicago).
 
Early season, results vary, if you have euphoria lasting longer than four hours contact your doctor, blah blah.

After the games of 11/02/14

Winnipeg, Chicago, and Dallas are projected into the bubble position with 89 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 90 points, translating to a record of 35-29-6 (a percentage of .543).

The Kings' current pace (.583, 96 points) projects the Kings into the 2nd wild card spot. They would face the Ducks in the first round (Vancouver would host Calgary, Nashville would win the Central and host San Jose, and Minnesota would host St. Louis).
 
Early season, void where prohibited, do not taunt Jedi Fun Ball, blah blah.

After the games of 11/04/14

Winnipeg and Chicago are projected into the bubble position with 95 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 96 points, translating to a record of 37-26-6 (a percentage of .580).

The Kings' current pace (.615, 101 points) projects them into the 1st wild card spot. That would match them up against Central champs St. Louis in the first round (Pacific champs Anaheim would host San Jose, Nashville would host Minnesota, and Vancouver would host Calgary).
 
Early season, for entertainment purposes only, contact your doctor if you experience nausea or death, blah blah.

After the games of 11/06/14

Winnipeg and San Jose are projected into the bubble position with 94 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 95 points, translating to a record of 36-26-6 (a percentage of .574).

The Kings' current pace (.607, 100 points) projects them into the #3 slot in the Pacific. That would match them up against Vancouver in the first round (Pacific and West champs Anaheim would host Chicago, Central division winners St. Louis would host Calgary, and Nashville would host Minnesota).
 
You're still here, you know the deal.

After the games of 11/08/14
Chicago and Minnesota are projected into the bubble position (9th/10th) with 88 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 89 points, translating to a record of 32-29-6 (a percentage of .522).

The Kings' current pace (.633, 104 points) projects them into the #3 slot in the Pacific, one point clear of Calgary. That would match Los Angeles up against Vancouver in the first round (Pacific and West champs Anaheim would host #2 wildcard San Jose, Central division winners Nashville would host #1 wildcard Calgary, and St. Louis would host Winnipeg).
 
HansH said:
You're still here, you know the deal.

After the games of 11/08/14
Chicago and Minnesota are projected into the bubble position (9th/10th) with 88 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 89 points, translating to a record of 32-29-6 (a percentage of .522).

The Kings' current pace (.633, 104 points) projects them into the #3 slot in the Pacific, one point clear of Calgary. That would match Los Angeles up against Vancouver in the first round (Pacific and West champs Anaheim would host #2 wildcard San Jose, Central division winners Nashville would host #1 wildcard Calgary, and St. Louis would host Winnipeg).
Click to expand...

Imagine trying to say that with a straight face in the summer
 
After the games of 11/12/14
San Jose are projected into the bubble position (9th) with 87 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 88 points, translating to a record of 31-29-6 (a percentage of .515).

The Kings' current pace (.625, 103 points) projects them into the #3 slot in the Pacific. That would match Los Angeles up against Vancouver in the first round (Pacific and West champs Anaheim would host #2 wildcard Winnipeg, Central division winners Nashville would host #1 wildcard Calgary, and St. Louis would host Chicago).
 
After the games of 11/15/14
Winnipeg are projected into the bubble position (9th) with 91 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 92 points, translating to a record of 32-26-6 (a percentage of .547) in the Kings' remaining 64 games.

The Kings' current pace (.611, 100 points) projects them into the #1 wildcard position. That would match Los Angeles up against Pacific winners Anaheim in the first round (Central and West champs St. Louis would host #2 wildcard Chicago, Vancouver would host Calgary, and Nashville would host Minnesota).
 
After the games of 11/18/14
Winnipeg are projected into the bubble position (9th) with 94 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 95 points, translating to a record of 33-25-5 (a percentage of .564) in the Kings' remaining 63 games.

The Kings' current pace (.632, 104 points) projects them into the #1 wildcard position. That would match Los Angeles up against Pacific winners Anaheim in the first round (Central and West champs Nashville would host #2 wildcard Chicago, Vancouver would host Calgary, and St. Louis would host Minnesota).
 
Quarter-point edition:

After the games of 11/22/14
Winnipeg are projected into the bubble position (9th) with 90 points. This would make the "safe" (non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 30-26-5 (a percentage of .533) in the Kings' remaining 61 games.

The Kings' current pace (.619, 102 points) projects them into the #1 wildcard position. That would match Los Angeles up against Pacific winners Anaheim in the first round (Central and West champs Nashville would host #2 wildcard Minnesota, Vancouver would host Calgary, and St. Louis would host Chicago).
 
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