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How many career goals can Matthews realistically score in that scenario?

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How many Matthews career goals if things play out like that?

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Regal said:
Yea, obviously health and longevity play huge roles and we can’t assume Matthews will be on the high end of that. I just meant that a strong finish to his 20s would set him up where he would only need a very good 30s to get to 800 rather than something unheard of like what Ovechkin has done. Even with your math, he’d be only 23 shy of 800 in that scenario. So while it’s obviously more likely he doesn’t hit it, it’s not unrealistic. And Stamkos is a good example of someone who looked in a similar boat to Matthews with 261 goals before he turned 25, but only 220 since and he’ll be 33 next February. Seems more likely he’ll end up in the 650ish range
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Of course, not impossible. But the poster you quoted originally had him at 10% chance of > 800. That seems very generous.

I'd put the chances at 5% or less. I think 700-800 and finishing top 10-20 in scoring in NHL history is pretty amazing.
 
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I assumed 40 goals per season on average for the next 14 years with no injuries.

I assumed he would average 50 goals per season in his good years, and down towards 30 in his bad/older years.

If he doesn’t miss a single game over the next 14 years and averages 40 goals per season, that takes him to 779 goals at age 39 (one back of where Ovechkin is currently at age 37).

Assuming he plays until the age of 40, he would need to average 42 goals per season and never miss a single game to get to 894.

Knowing that he’s not as durable as Ovechkin is and factoring in eventual work stoppages makes it very unlikely for him to ever break Gretzky or Ovi’s record.

Both Ovechkin and Matthews have missed the same amount of games in their career (47), but Ovechkin has been playing far longer.
 
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See this post from 2020:

CASE 2: AUSTON MATTHEWS

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Season[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Assists[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]102[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2024[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]102[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2025[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2026[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2027[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2028[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2029[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2030[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2031[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2032[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]670[/TD]
[TD]570[/TD]
[TD]1,240[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Based on the forecast method that I used, I estimated Matthews will end up with around 670 goals. This estimate is somewhat conservative because:

1) Matthews has exceeded the forecast for 2020 through 2022 (taking into account the games lost to the pandemic) - which means he's more likely to exceed the forecast going forward;
2) leaguewide scoring is trending higher (which pushes everyone's totals higher); and
3) it assumes a conservative (ie early) retirement age - it seems unlikely that Matthews will retire at age 34, but this is factoring in the possibility of a career-ending injury (which increases over time)

Of course, when looking so many years into the future, a single injury can decimate the forecast. There's a long list of players who didn't even come close to a reasonable projection of their career totals, for a variety of reasons.

Putting this all together, if Matthews remains relatively healthy, low 700's is a realistic expectation. ("Realistic expectation" means that there's a reasonable chance that he'll end up on either side of the projection - so maybe he ends up at 670 goals, or maybe he ends up at 740). There's a lot of things that could go wrong, but it's remarkable that we can even talk about this. If Matthews reaches 700 goals, he'd surely be one of the greatest goal-scorers of all time.
 
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Regal said:
Yea, obviously health and longevity play huge roles and we can’t assume Matthews will be on the high end of that. I just meant that a strong finish to his 20s would set him up where he would only need a very good 30s to get to 800 rather than something unheard of like what Ovechkin has done. Even with your math, he’d be only 23 shy of 800 in that scenario. So while it’s obviously more likely he doesn’t hit it, it’s not unrealistic. And Stamkos is a good example of someone who looked in a similar boat to Matthews with 261 goals before he turned 25, but only 220 since and he’ll be 33 next February. Seems more likely he’ll end up in the 650ish range
Click to expand...

To be fair, Stamkos had a career changing injury when he snapped his leg on that post and then came back and had to adjust to playing without MSL. The whole premise of this thread seems to be "guess how many goals Matthews can pot based on how well you think he ages without injuries"?
 
People forget that because of the advancements in training, nutrition, rehab, etc that athletes are playing longer and longer. This isn't the 80s or even 90s where turning 30 means you're done. Add in what others have already mentioned about league GPG going up, physicality going down, Matthews entering the league 1 year before OV, etc and I'd fully expect ~700 if he doesn't have any significant injuries. 600 I think is guaranteed with his talent. He'd have to play 99% of games and age similar to OV to have any chance at 800 though.
 
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heretik27 said:
To be fair, Stamkos had a career changing injury when he snapped his leg on that post and then came back and had to adjust to playing without MSL. The whole premise of this thread seems to be "guess how many goals Matthews can pot based on how well you think he ages without injuries"?
Click to expand...

Yea, that’s why I ended up voting 800-850. I think that’s a realistic reasonable scenario given the parameters in the OP. I think that particular discussion ended up more about actual realistic results without the parameters, so in that case Stamkos is an example of how injuries can sidetrack a similarly talented goalscorer with a similar start. Though I think he’d have to be considerably derailed in order to not hit 600.
 
Alexander the Gr8 said:
I assumed 40 goals per season on average for the next 14 years with no injuries.

I assumed he would average 50 goals per season in his good years, and down towards 30 in his bad/older years.

If he doesn’t miss a single game over the next 14 years and averages 40 goals per season, that takes him to 779 goals at age 39 (one back of where Ovechkin is currently at age 37).

Assuming he plays until the age of 40, he would need to average 42 goals per season and never miss a single game to get to 894.

Knowing that he’s not as durable as Ovechkin is and factoring in eventual work stoppages makes it very unlikely for him to ever break Gretzky or Ovi’s record.

Both Ovechkin and Matthews have missed the same amount of games in their career (47), but Ovechkin has been playing far longer.
Click to expand...

That’s insane
 
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Realistically in that scenario late 600s/early 700s.

People are either forgetting or ignoring how quickly goal scoring falls off for the majority of players in their late 20s.

Some of the Leaf fan projections are delusional lol.
 
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Holymakinaw said:
Not me. I just don't go in for getting all silly-buggers, like the kids do, whenever one of their guys does well for a bit. ;)

He scored 60 last year. Amazing. And likely the only time he'll ever score that much in a season(even Ovie only did that once). I can see some more 50 goal seasons with AM, for sure. But 30-40 goal seasons will likely be the most common for him. And the last however many years he plays, he'll be way down from that. Anywhere from 700 to 750 is realistic for Matthews, for his career.
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40 goal rookie's most common season will be 30 to 40 goals.. I assume you think he's playing into his 50s?

Yeah you aren't biased. It's pretty obvious Matthews has just been lucky and will struggle to hit 40 going forward....

Priceless.
 
Paul4587 said:
Realistically in that scenario late 600s/early 700s.

People are either forgetting or ignoring how quickly goal scoring falls off for the majority of players in their late 20s.

Some of the Leaf fan projections are delusional lol.
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You're giving him the same level of teammates, AKA one of the top 5 passers in the NHL for the rest of his career in a relatively high scoring environment. There's also likely no big injuries in this scenario, so he gets perfect health and no decline from that aspect. How much do you expect his scoring to drop??

From 25-29: Average 50 goals (50*5 = 250 goals)
From 30-34: Average 35 goals (35*5 = 175 goals)
From 35-37: Average 25 goals (25*3 = 75 goals)

This would lead to a total of 759 career goals and doesn't seem unrealistic at all. He has the best shot in the world and can disguise it better than anyone. He'll always be able to put the puck in the net
 
Paul4587 said:
Realistically in that scenario late 600s/early 700s.

People are either forgetting or ignoring how quickly goal scoring falls off for the majority of players in their late 20s.

Some of the Leaf fan projections are delusional lol.
Click to expand...

Matthews is the type of scorer who should age really well though. That release and ability to disguise his shot isn’t going away soon, nor is his ability to get into shooting positions. He’s a really good skater, but also isn’t reliant on his skating to be effective, so he can lose a step and still get where he needs to be. Plus, players at his level just tend to age well in general
 
Regal said:
Matthews is the type of scorer who should age really well though.
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The number of times this gets thrown around is way more than it should. It’s almost impossible to predict who ages well in this league. Some players no matter how strong and fit they are fall off a cliff at 30 and others who aren’t particularly fond of off ice fitness play well until they’re 40.
 
Paul4587 said:
The number of times this gets thrown around is way more than it should. It’s almost impossible to predict who ages well in this league. Some players no matter how strong and fit they are fall off a cliff at 30 and others who aren’t particularly fond of off ice fitness play well until they’re 40.
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Matthews has been a top goalscorer in the league from the moment he stepped in the league and hasn't had any down years. That kind of consistency is extremely rare and speaks well to his longevity. Injuries are the big unknown though. Bure, Stamkos, Lindros, Bossy... Ovechkin may cloud what we think is realistic through his inhumane durability.
 
BlueBaron said:
40 goal rookie's most common season will be 30 to 40 goals.. I assume you think he's playing into his 50s?

Yeah you aren't biased. It's pretty obvious Matthews has just been lucky and will struggle to hit 40 going forward....

Priceless.
Click to expand...

Meh. I meant seasons where he scores in the 30's or in the 40's. So there could be all kinds of 45/46/47 goal seasons. I should have worded the numbers a bit differently but it's not a massive difference(less than 10 goals).

So far that's exactly what he's delivered in 5 out of his 6 seasons played(40, 34, 37, 47,41 goals, with his 60g season the exception). I think it's reasonable to suggest that will continue.
 
sparr0w said:
You are fond of trends, obviously. How many historical trends are we to ignore for this exercise? You don't seem to want to acknowledge that scoring rates historically drop as players age.
Click to expand...

Nah, for I don't know how many times, like I have explained and demonstrated already in that other thread and even in private, you seem to be one of those who completely overlook the "IFs"

In this very thread, I have said :

Matthews has been a bit unlucky with Covid and injuries but if things stabilize and he stays healthy, he could seriously score a lot more during the next decade

A lot will depend on how much he scores in the next few years. If he takes a good "lead", that could contribute to offset any future decline

And I have also quoted @Regal (again, in this very thread) saying it was a point I have been trying to make, where he said :

"if Matthews has a strong finish to his 20s, he doesn’t necessarily need to be as good as Ovechkin in his 30s."

Of course it's going to be hypothetical, it's a discussion about the FUTURE :help:


This is also what I have told you in private and you replied :

"Of course, there is no guarantees he stays healthy or doesn't regress but as it has been REPEATED, he is TRENDING like that."

"Of course, but what if Matthews keeps scoring goals after age 35 like Ovie is doing now? Even if he regresses in his 30's, he could still end up in the top-5 scoring of all-time."


And stop making it seem like it was super far fetched, the main thing Matthews has to do is stay relatively healthy and not drop off a cliff too young. You are probably just very biased about this and don't want to see Matthews succeed. Or is it just a reading/comprehension problem?

Now excuse me but I'm not going to spend much more time going back and forth about the "IF" definition. If you're not interested in this discussion, nobody forces you to come. Other people seem to be interested.
 
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Stamkos has been really unlucky. He's a guy who should be looking at 700+ instead of 600+ but lockout, covid and several significant injuries.

North Cole said:
I said 750-800. I probably wouldn't be super surpised if he got to 850 but above that would be pretty unreal. He gets compared to OV a lot and fairplay at their current age but we just really don't know what he will look like in 8 years. OV has had historic scoring in his 30's, basically never before seen, and I don't think it's fair to Matthews to take what's he's doing now and assume he follows the OV arc when no one else ever has. Even if he got to 750 max, that's an incredible accomplishment.

Can Matthews get into the 900's? It is possible but I would absolutely not bet any amount of money on it.
Click to expand...

He doesn't have too though. Look at my scenario :

Season 1 to Season 3 : 55 goals on average = 165 goals
Season 4 to Season 6 : 50 goals on average = 150 goals
Season 7 to Season 10 : 40 goals on average = 160 goals
Season 11 to Season 13 : 30 goals on average = 90 goals

Total = 565 + 259 = 824 goals

My scenario has him scoring no more than 40 goals per 82 games on average past 30 y/o and no more than 30 goals per 82 games on average past 34 y/o

I think he stays relatively healthy and the world/league doesn't change drastically, he scores 800+

Holymakinaw said:
Not me. I just don't go in for getting all silly-buggers, like the kids do, whenever one of their guys does well for a bit. ;)

He scored 60 last year. Amazing. And likely the only time he'll ever score that much in a season(even Ovie only did that once). I can see some more 50 goal seasons with AM, for sure. But 30-40 goal seasons will likely be the most common for him. And the last however many years he plays, he'll be way down from that. Anywhere from 700 to 750 is realistic for Matthews, for his career.
Click to expand...

I think he has at least another 60 goals season and several 50's

Among players who played at least 41 games, 29 guys paced for 40+ goals last season and 17 actually did it

30-40 is a low expectation for Matthews

heretik27 said:
The whole premise of this thread seems to be "guess how many goals Matthews can pot based on how well you think he ages without injuries"?
Click to expand...

Not exactly but not far. It's based on :

- he plays until 38 years old
- he stays relatively healthy and play 92% of his team's games (vs his current career 89%)
- no drastic changes in NHL scoring
- he continues to play with top-6 forwards (teams will always play him with their best forwards)
 
Paul4587 said:
The number of times this gets thrown around is way more than it should. It’s almost impossible to predict who ages well in this league. Some players no matter how strong and fit they are fall off a cliff at 30 and others who aren’t particularly fond of off ice fitness play well until they’re 40.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. It’s not something I think anyone should feel confident in, but I’d be more confident in him than most. I think injury tends to be the biggest factor in early aging though, which is impossible to know and this thread suggests general good health
 
Took a pill in Sbisa said:
As soon as you said 13 seasons of 82 games I knew I could not vote in this thread
Click to expand...

As soon as I read this post, I knew I had to suggest you to take reading comprehension classes :sarcasm:

Seriously, it's 13 x 82 out of 14 seasons, ~92% of team's games (vs his current ~89%)

Paul4587 said:
Realistically in that scenario late 600s/early 700s.

People are either forgetting or ignoring how quickly goal scoring falls off for the majority of players in their late 20s.

Some of the Leaf fan projections are delusional lol.
Click to expand...

700 goals would be 441 more goals in 1066 games, 0.41 G/GP, which is 34 goals per 82 games

If he scores 50 goals on average per season for the next 5 years (250 goals in 410 games), he would only have to score 191 goals in his 30s, in 656 games, which is 24 goals per 82 games

Do you think he could score an average of 24 goals per 82 games during his whole 30's or that wouldn't be enough of a "fall off"?
 
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The Ovechkins, Bergeron, Pavelski type players are incredibly rare. Aka players who remain elite beyond 35. Probably close to 75% of players start declining at 30, some even earlier and 90% are toast by 35. Most good old players tend to be defense.

It's a very miniscule group of individuals who remain healthy AND elite beyond 35. There's also the motivation aspect, many players decline is often correlated when they start a family(for obvious reasons).

It's a very complex thing to predict.

No one can tell what side of the fence Matthew's will fall.
 
If he averaged 30 goals a season for the next 13 seasons he'd finish with 650. Given how he's been performing and how well I think his game will age, 750-800 is definitely feasible if he plays another 1000+ games.

Edit: Didn't realize this thread was made a year and a half ago but nothing since then has happened to change my mind.
 
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