How many career goals can Matthews realistically score in that scenario?

[Xspyrit]

Auston Matthews turned 25 years old last week. He has scored 259 goals so far, despite covid and injuries. How much more do you think he can realistically score IF he plays another 14 years and stay relatively healthy? Let's say he plays another 1066 games, which is 13 seasons of 82 games. All things stay equal (like average league scoring, quality of teammates, etc)


Facts :

25 years old as of September 17th
259 goals in 407 games (0.64 G/GP)
Including 101 goals in his last 2 seasons (125 games)

Methodology proposed :

Season x to Season x : x goals on average
Season x to Season x : x goals on average
Season x to Season x : x goals on average
Etc


Then do the totals. Add 259 goals at the end too lol

Please no trolling. Please leave bias aside

Click to read more...

 

[heretik27]

I used a very scientific methodology to extrapolate the amount of goals he's on pace for, and then subtracted a round figure of 150 goals to estimate he finishes at 791 goals behind Gretzky, Howe, and eventually Ovechkin.

 

[leafsfan5]

Next couple years he'd put up 55-70 goals per season in this scenario, then probably dip down to 40-55, then down to 30-40

His shot and ability to hide it is so good that he'll always be able to score. I'd have him around 800+ if he stayed healthy and continued to play with a world class playmaker

 

[Xspyrit]

Next couple years he'd put up 55-70 goals per season in this scenario, then probably dip down to 40-55, then down to 30-40

His shot and ability to hide it is so good that he'll always be able to score. I'd have him around 800+ if he stayed healthy and continued to play with a world class playmaker

To be frank, I really hope he doesn't finish ahead of Ovechkin but can't deny pure talent.

I'm a goalie and his shot looks like a nightmare. His release seems extremely hard to anticipate. Ovechkin is just deadly power. Their shots are just incredible and that is why they will probably be seen as the 2 best goal scorers of all time when all is said and done (until someone new). Note that they're not scoring against small skinny goalies

 

[heretik27]

To be frank, I really hope he doesn't finish ahead of Ovechkin but can't deny pure talent.

I'm a goalie and his shot looks like a nightmare. His release seems extremely hard to anticipate. Ovechkin is just deadly power. Their shots are just incredible and that is why they will probably be seen as the 2 best goal scorers of all time when all is said and done (until someone new). Note that they're not scoring against small skinny goalies

For the sake of comparison, Brett Hull scored in 58.4% of his games played. If he played the same amount of games as Matthews in this scenario (1473 total GP), he'd have scored on a pace of 860 goals. Interesting part here though, is that Matthews came into the league as a 19 year old, and Brett Hull was 23 in his first full season. If Matthews were to have a similar career, which is entirely possible, he could hit or surpass that 860 goal mark in this hypothetical scenario.

 

[bobholly39]

I've said this before, but in my opinion:

~95% chance Matthews surpasses 600 career goals. Simply put, he will do so barring major injury, which is always hard to predict.

~50% chance he surpasses 700 goals. To me this is quite likely - but the one complete unknown is how he will age out.

~10% chance he surpasses 800 goals. The only way he does that is if he channels Ovechkin, and keeps on scoring ~50 goals well into his 30s. Ovechkin is unique in history with his longevity/consistency as a goal-scorer, so hard to imagine Matthews would pace him, but you never know.

I think there's a very good chance Matthews could hit ~60-70 in the next couple of years. But people also said that of Ovechkin at the same age in 2011, and instead he dropped off a cliff in production for 2.5 years, so it's quite unpredictable.

I voted 751-800. That would be my guess as of today

 

[norrisnick]

If we take it for granted that he plays a higher % of games over the next 14yrs than he has over his first 5 and lands solidly in the top 30 of all time for games played, yeah he's going to score some goals. Likely deep into the 700s.

 

[byrath]

642 goals in 1066 games to reach 901. You seem to be asking what is reasonably possible, not what is likely, so I voted 901. I'd say 700-750 is the most likely range.

 

[Regal]

I've said this before, but in my opinion:

~95% chance Matthews surpasses 600 career goals. Simply put, he will do so barring major injury, which is always hard to predict.

~50% chance he surpasses 700 goals. To me this is quite likely - but the one complete unknown is how he will age out.

~10% chance he surpasses 800 goals. The only way he does that is if he channels Ovechkin, and keeps on scoring ~50 goals well into his 30s. Ovechkin is unique in history with his longevity/consistency as a goal-scorer, so hard to imagine Matthews would pace him, but you never know.

I think there's a very good chance Matthews could hit ~60-70 in the next couple of years. But people also said that of Ovechkin at the same age in 2011, and instead he dropped off a cliff in production for 2.5 years, so it's quite unpredictable.

I voted 751-800. That would be my guess as of today

Keep in mind that Ovechkin’s lull you mentioned, combined with entering the league a year older than Matthews, having a shortened season due to lockout, and league scoring going down means that Matthews could very well end up with a solid edge in goals before 30. Since Ovechkin seems poised to push for 900, if Matthews has a strong finish to his 20s, he doesn’t necessarily need to be as good as Ovechkin in his 30s in order to hit 800.

For example, after his age 24 season, Ovechkin had 269 goals to Matthews’ 259 after his. His next 5 seasons, he had 206 goals due to the lull and lockout. If Matthews averages 50 goals over those 5 years, it puts him at 509 going into his age 30 season. If he played another 10 years to 39, he’d only have to average just under 30 goals a season. At 45 over the next 5, it’s just under 35 for the 10 years after. Iginla for example had 301 goals from his age 30 season on by being consistent. If Matthews hit 500 at 29, an Iginla finish would get him there

Obviously still exceedingly difficult and requires health and league scoring and lockouts and pandemics on his side, and I probably wouldn’t disagree with the 10% number, but I don’t think he’d necessarily have to defy the aging curve to hit it.

 

[Holymakinaw]

I say Matthews will do something like this:

5 years at 45-50 goals/year = 225/250.....I'll go in the middle = 238
5 years at 30-35 goals/year = 150/175......I'll go in the middle = 162
3 years at 20/year = 60

Plus the 259 he already has

Total = 719

 

[Coffee]

To be frank, I really hope he doesn't finish ahead of Ovechkin but can't deny pure talent.

I'm a goalie and his shot looks like a nightmare. His release seems extremely hard to anticipate. Ovechkin is just deadly power. Their shots are just incredible and that is why they will probably be seen as the 2 best goal scorers of all time when all is said and done (until someone new). Note that they're not scoring against small skinny goalies

I didn't know you were a goalie. I gained so much respect for you now and I apologize for our hiccups earlier this year

I say Matthews will do something like this:

5 years at 45-50 goals/year = 225/250.....I'll go in the middle = 238
5 years at 30-35 goals/year = 150/175......I'll go in the middle = 162
3 years at 20/year = 60

Plus the 259 he already has

Total = 719

Matthews won't score below 50 goals until he's 36

 

[Johnny Tomala]

551-600 goals gets my vote.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Matthews won't score below 50 goals until he's 36

Uh, he's scored more than 50 ONCE in his 6 years so far. It's 100% possible he flirts with it the rest of his career and never exceeds it. If the guy scored 49 a year for the next 5 years, is that not still amazing?

What's the matter? 719 career goals not enough for you?

 

[Xspyrit]

For the sake of comparison, Brett Hull scored in 58.4% of his games played. If he played the same amount of games as Matthews in this scenario (1473 total GP), he'd have scored on a pace of 860 goals. Interesting part here though, is that Matthews came into the league as a 19 year old, and Brett Hull was 23 in his first full season. If Matthews were to have a similar career, which is entirely possible, he could hit or surpass that 860 goal mark in this hypothetical scenario.

A few things about Hull. Yes he started much "older" than Matthews but he scored a big chunk of his goals (500) in an higher scoring era. His 5 years peak was still incredible but while he was still a good goal scorer after that, he couldn't keep the pace very long. But yes, if he started playing in the NHL at a younger age, he would have easily broke the 800 goals barrier.

Matthews has been a bit unlucky with Covid and injuries but if things stabilize and he stays healthy, he could seriously score a lot more during the next decade

If we take it for granted that he plays a higher % of games over the next 14yrs than he has over his first 5 and lands solidly in the top 30 of all time for games played, yeah he's going to score some goals. Likely deep into the 700s.

He played 407/455 Toronto Maple Leafs games since 2016-17, which is 89.45%

In my proposed scenario, his ratio of games played would be 92.85%

Also, elite talents tend to play longer than good players. And the athleticism level has gone up a lot in last decades, best athletes of today will probably all play above 1500 games (McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Ovechkin, etc). Joe Thornton just played 1714 games... If you play an average of 75 games and started at 19 y/o, you could reach 1000 games before age 32

I know you want these arguments to work out but it is what it is.

642 goals in 1066 games to reach 901. You seem to be asking what is reasonably possible, not what is likely, so I voted 901. I'd say 700-750 is the most likely range.

That sounds "crazy" but at the same time, that G/GP (0.60) lower than his current career G/GP (0.64)

A lot will depend on how much he scores in the next few years. If he takes a good "lead", that could contribute to offset any future decline

Keep in mind that Ovechkin’s lull you mentioned, combined with entering the league a year older than Matthews, having a shortened season due to lockout, and league scoring going down means that Matthews could very well end up with a solid edge in goals at 30. Since Ovechkin seems poised to push for 900, if Matthews has a strong finish to his 20s, he doesn’t necessarily need to be as good as Ovechkin in his 30s.

For example, after his age 24 season, Ovechkin had 269 goals to Matthews’ 259 after his. His next 5 seasons, he had 206 goals due to the lull and lockout. If Matthews averages 50 goals over those 5 years, it puts him at 509 going into his age 30 season. If he played another 10 years to 39, he’d only have to average just under 30 goals a season. At 45 over the next 5, it’s just under 35.

Thanks for making the point I have been trying to make in that other thread. Just maybe didn't express myself correctly

 

[Xspyrit]

I didn't know you were a goalie. I gained so much respect for you now and I apologize for our hiccups earlier this year

Thanks... We did? I don't remember and don't worry, I don't hold any grudges. Sorry for that but I am more of a retaliator than a provocator. Some arguments get heated a bit but at the same time it's not that easy to understand each others through that communication form, there's a lot of "trial of intent"

551-600 goals gets my vote.

551 goals would be 292 more goals in 1066 games, 0.27 G/GP, which is 22 goals per 82 games

It would be like Matthews forgetting how to score.

What's the matter? 719 career goals not enough for you?

That's conservative IMO. 719 goals would be 460 more goals in 1066 games, 0.43 G/GP, which is 35 goals per 82 games

The guy just turned 25 y/o and scored 101 goals in his last 125 games... I see him scoring like a madman for a while and even if he declines to 30 goals per 82 games in his 30's, the rest of his career could/should be over 35 goals per 82 games.

Another who is biased against the Leafs

 

[norrisnick]

He played 407/455 Toronto Maple Leafs games since 2016-17, which is 89.45%

In my proposed scenario, his ratio of games played would be 92.85%

Also, elite talents tend to play longer than good players. And the athleticism level has gone up a lot in last decades, best athletes of today will probably all play above 1500 games (McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Ovechkin, etc). Joe Thornton just played 1714 games... If you play an average of 75 games and started at 19 y/o, you could reach 1000 games before age 32

I know you want these arguments to work out but it is what it is.

Thanks for showing the math I had already done, I guess?

 

[Video Nasty]

A few things about Hull. Yes he started much "older" than Matthews but he scored a big chunk of his goals (500) in an higher scoring era. His 5 years peak was still incredible but while he was still a good goal scorer after that, he couldn't keep the pace very long. But yes, if he started playing in the NHL at a younger age, he would have easily broke the 800 goals barrier.

Matthews has been a bit unlucky with Covid and injuries but if things stabilize and he stays healthy, he could seriously score a lot more during the next decade

On the flip side, Matthews has been “lucky” or fortunate enough to spend 5 of the first 6 years of his career in scoring environments hovering a tick below or above 6 GPG and hasn’t been dealt a lockout yet. I’d say any time missed related to COVID is about the equivalent of a half season lockout, so I think it’s a wash at worst.

I agree overall though. If the league stays or even rises above the level of scoring it has enjoyed over the past handful of years and he stays relatively healthy, Matthews is going to pot a lot of goals.

Either way, I’ve witnessed enough sports to know that nothing is a lock. I vividly remember Ovechkin potting 65 and thinking (as well as reading other comments) that he would surely touch 60 another time or two. Instead he topped 51 “just” two more times in all the years since. I see the same comments about Matthews presently. His good fortune is that he seems to be entering a league that cares about upping scoring for more than a year or two.

 

[amnesiac]

Ill say around 640

Elite scorer of this era, but there only one Ovi who can manage to do it as consistently as he does well in to his late 30s.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

The idea of 901+ arouses me, so I will go with that.

 

[Xspyrit]

Thanks for showing the math I had already done, I guess?

If you had already done these maths, then I have no idea where you're going with that

On the flip side, Matthews has been “lucky” or fortunate enough to spend 5 of the first 6 years of his career in scoring environments hovering a tick below or above 6 GPG and hasn’t been dealt a lockout yet. I’d say any time missed related to COVID is about the equivalent of a half season lockout, so I think it’s a wash at worst.

I agree overall though. If the league stays or even rises above the level of scoring it has enjoyed over the past handful of years and he stays relatively healthy, Matthews is going to pot a lot of goals.

Either way, I’ve witnessed enough sports to know that nothing is a lock. I vividly remember Ovechkin potting 65 and thinking (as well as reading other comments) that he would surely touch 60 another time or two. Instead he topped 51 “just” two more times in all the years since. I see the same comments about Matthews presently. His good fortunate is that he seems to be entering a league that cares about upping scoring for more than a year or two.

I don't see this as lucky or fortunate, he's playing in an average scoring era. And yeah lockout or Covid it doesn't matter, in the end in the games played that matters and like you said, about the same. This thread is assuming that things will stay roughly equal. But the main challenge for Matthews (or any player) is to stay healthy and not get diminish by injuries.

Ill say around 640

Elite scorer of this era, but there only one Ovi who can manage to do it as consistently as he does well in to his late 30s.

640 goals would only be 381 more goals in 1066 games, 0.36 G/GP, which is 29 goals per 82 games

That's not a lot for a 25 y/o guy who scored 66 goals per 82 games in the last 2 seasons...

 

[norrisnick]

If you had already done these maths, then I have no idea where you're going with that

You are fond of trends, obviously. How many historical trends are we to ignore for this exercise? You don't seem to want to acknowledge that scoring rates historically drop as players age. As you call out posters for being conservative if their estimates drop below his current career rate.

You want us to assume that his game to game availability increases as he ages, rather than drop as is normal. The point I was making.

We are assuming no significant injuries over the course of the next 14 seasons.

We are assuming no deviation in league wide scoring.

We are assuming no decline in teammate strength.

So yes, if everything is perfect for Matthews he is going to score a lot of goals.

I guess the point I am making is that I am struggling to see the value in this discussion. You are going into it with the premise that he will be at worst the 3rd highest goal scorer in league history and eliminating any and all variables that might put that premise at risk. What's the point?

 

[abo9]

Keep in mind that Ovechkin’s lull you mentioned, combined with entering the league a year older than Matthews, having a shortened season due to lockout, and league scoring going down means that Matthews could very well end up with a solid edge in goals before 30. Since Ovechkin seems poised to push for 900, if Matthews has a strong finish to his 20s, he doesn’t necessarily need to be as good as Ovechkin in his 30s in order to hit 800.

For example, after his age 24 season, Ovechkin had 269 goals to Matthews’ 259 after his. His next 5 seasons, he had 206 goals due to the lull and lockout. If Matthews averages 50 goals over those 5 years, it puts him at 509 going into his age 30 season. If he played another 10 years to 39, he’d only have to average just under 30 goals a season. At 45 over the next 5, it’s just under 35 for the 10 years after. Iginla for example had 301 goals from his age 30 season on by being consistent. If Matthews hit 500 at 29, an Iginla finish would get him there

Obviously still exceedingly difficult and requires health and league scoring and lockouts and pandemics on his side, and I probably wouldn’t disagree with the 10% number, but I don’t think he’d necessarily have to defy the aging curve to hit it.

extremely unlikely then.

Ovechkin is an absurd phenomenon in terms of aging and goalscoring.

Matthews has been better in the past couple years, but he doesnt strike me as an iron man ala Ovechkin.

700-800 seems like the realistic amount.

Napkin math time:

Assuming he plays 18 seasons (brings him to age 36):

407 games x3 = 1221 games (top 100 in games played)

259 goals x 3 = 777 goals

Thats an average of 68 games played per year and 43 goals per year over his last 12 years of hockey.

You might argue that he lasts until 40, but I counter argue that most goalscorers see a significant drop in production after 25 and then especially in their 30s. I assumed that Matthews kep going at the same pace until retirement.

700-800 would bring Matthews in top 10 goalscorer all time category.

 

[North Cole]

I said 750-800. I probably wouldn't be super surpised if he got to 850 but above that would be pretty unreal. He gets compared to OV a lot and fairplay at their current age but we just really don't know what he will look like in 8 years. OV has had historic scoring in his 30's, basically never before seen, and I don't think it's fair to Matthews to take what's he's doing now and assume he follows the OV arc when no one else ever has. Even if he got to 750 max, that's an incredible accomplishment.

Can Matthews get into the 900's? It is possible but I would absolutely not bet any amount of money on it.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Another who is biased against the Leafs

Not me. I just don't go in for getting all silly-buggers, like the kids do, whenever one of their guys does well for a bit.

He scored 60 last year. Amazing. And likely the only time he'll ever score that much in a season(even Ovie only did that once). I can see some more 50 goal seasons with AM, for sure. But 30-40 goal seasons will likely be the most common for him. And the last however many years he plays, he'll be way down from that. Anywhere from 700 to 750 is realistic for Matthews, for his career.

 

[Regal]

extremely unlikely then.

Ovechkin is an absurd phenomenon in terms of aging and goalscoring.

Matthews has been better in the past couple years, but he doesnt strike me as an iron man ala Ovechkin.

700-800 seems like the realistic amount.

Napkin math time:

Assuming he plays 18 seasons (brings him to age 36):

407 games x3 = 1221 games (top 100 in games played)

259 goals x 3 = 777 goals

Thats an average of 68 games played per year and 43 goals per year over his last 12 years of hockey.

You might argue that he lasts until 40, but I counter argue that most goalscorers see a significant drop in production after 25 and then especially in their 30s. I assumed that Matthews kep going at the same pace until retirement.

700-800 would bring Matthews in top 10 goalscorer all time category.

Yea, obviously health and longevity play huge roles and we can’t assume Matthews will be on the high end of that. I just meant that a strong finish to his 20s would set him up where he would only need a very good 30s to get to 800 rather than something unheard of like what Ovechkin has done. Even with your math, he’d be only 23 shy of 800 in that scenario. So while it’s obviously more likely he doesn’t hit it, it’s not unrealistic. And Stamkos is a good example of someone who looked in a similar boat to Matthews with 261 goals before he turned 25, but only 220 since and he’ll be 33 next February. Seems more likely he’ll end up in the 650ish range