How Long Will The Tank And Rebuild Take?

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Montreal in 2007 drafted McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban with their top 3 picks, none of which were top 10 picks.

Why cant we have a draft like that

Kaberle is the last stud we drafted who significantly exceeded expectations (Rask as well, but he was a 1st rounder and top goalie prospect). Thats a long time to go with no home-run picks.

There's that Alexander Steen guy too.

 

[colchar]

History like the Pittsburg, Chicago and LA rebuilds tells us that a complete rebuild will take 6 to 8 years for the rebuilding team to make the playoffs, being a contender naturally will take longer.

There is a difference between TO and Pittsburgh, Chicago and LA and it's a biggie, FAs don't like Canadian cities, they don't mind Canada if they are mediocre and the Cdn teams overpay so it's going to be extremely difficult for any Cdn team to rebuild.

We can add years to the rebuilding process because of the disadvantage of being a Cdn team. Rebuilding thru the draft is the slowest possible way to rebuild and only feasible if the draft becomes far more productive for TO than it has been the last 8 years. To speed up or fortify the process TO will need to attract the future Suters, Parises, Hossas while also being able to make trades. We have learned that most contracts stipulate in the NMC/NTC that Cdn destinations are not considered attractive.

To move from being a simple playoff contender to Stanley Cup contender means that TO will have to start hitting home runs with draft choices which would involve 2 things, a competent scouting dept. and the availability of top quality draft choices.

This year should be a great start in the draft in the first round but TO needs to start finding NHLers in the later rounds

We have not learned that Canadian cities are not attractive. Some won't be because of weather (Winnipeg, Edmonton), but others are desirable destinations when the team is playing well. When teams in other Canadian cities are doing well they don't have that tough a time picking up free agents. The 'survey' to which you refer consisted of a very small sample size so should not be taken as an indication of anything.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The question is when did it actually start and what's the measure for it to be over?

According to some, it began in '68 and will never end because stuff.

 

[Drew75]

Very interesting responses in this thread.... Some people think we are already 3 years into the rebuild?

No, we are NOT!

Pretty much any rebuilding team would probably have a guy like Nylander/Rielly. A team doesn't decide to rebuild just after 1 season of failure. It is likely that team had a failed season or two before they decided to rebuild. And hence, prospects like Nylander/Rielly. So, let us not act like this is not the 0th year of rebuild. Because it is!

I always thought media were idiots because they questioned if Leafs Nation was patient enough to go through a rebuild. And now, after seeing the responses here, their stance does make sense.

Look at any top teams build - that means not selectively starting halfway through, but actually going back to where they started accumulating the pieces that makes them good today. It's an average of about 12 years.

LA: 2000 - Visnovsky (turned into Stoll and Greene); 2003 - Brown; 2005 - Kopitar & Quick; 2007 - Simmonds (used with Schenn to get Richards); 2008 - Doughty.

Chicago: (After a complete fail attempt with guys like Mark Bell and Ethan Moreau) - 2002 - Keith, Burish, Wizeneiwski; 2003 - Seabrook, Crawford, Buf; 2004 - Bolland, Bickell, Brouwer; 2005 - Hjalmarsson; 2006 - Toews; 2007 - Kane

Toronto: 2008 - Schenn (JVR); 2009 - Kadri; 2011 - Percy?; 2012 - Reilly, Finn, Brown; 2013 - Gauthier, Johnson; 2014 - Nylander; 2015 - McDavid / Strome / Marner + Roy / Bittner / <name here> ;

Not counting trades for Bernier, potentially Gardiner (most D take a long time), and the returns on Kessel, Bozak, and Phaneuf.

We not starting on empty - add a solid 6 - 9 good prospects in drafting and trades over the next two summers, and we'll be ready to start improving and chasing the playoffs as of the centential year.

 

[ACC1224]

According to some, it began in '68 and will never end because stuff.

There is always the vague preface "proper" as proof it's never happened and most likely never will.

Combine the two and they have been rebuilding forever, just not "properly".

 

[Northern Dancer]

Montreal did not rebuild in the traditional sense. Sure their line up experienced significant turnover but all the key guys today were in the system or on the team that finished 28th overall. They basically moved out veterans and gave a leadership role to their youth plus added some secondary pieces through trade/ FA.

Price, Markov,Subban, Pacioretty, Pleckanec, Desharnais, Emelin, Eller,Gallagher, Pateryn and Beaulieu were either on the team or in the system. Galchenyuk was drafted with that pick.

So the goalie, 5 of the 6 d men ho started last night, and 4 of the top 6 forwards, from last night's lineup were in the system when they had the brutal season. The only significant add is Galchenyuk. MB made some nice moves but nothing earth shattering or rebuilding 3rd or 4th liners like Prust, Weise, smith pelly and rentals like Petry. The core was already there and not nearly as flawed as the Leafs core

Think we are saying the same thing, the Leafs have several pieces already in place, this is NOT a 5 year rebuild.

 

[tooncesmeow]

It'll probably take Toronto ~3 years. I'd consider them 2 years into the rebuild since they've managed Rielly and Nylander, who are in no way slouches. Still got Phil, still got Kadri, still got guys like Gauthier, Brown, Leipsic, McKegg, Percy, Finn, et al. who have the potential to contribute as 2nd/3rd line guys for this team.

Toronto just needs to pick up one of McDavid, Eichel, Strome or maybe Marner to really turn things around, and even then, they'll probably get a top 10 pick the year after. The big thing will see what Hunter can do past Round 1 because Dave Morrison hasn't managed to put together a good draft yet. I really don't know how this guy is with the club still. He barely had any input on the 2007 draft (arguably our most succesful draft in the last 10 years) and ever since Toronto has barely managed 1 decent prospect out of a draft while most other clubs seem to manage at least 2 or sometimes 3 guys who look to be NHL bound.

 

[Menzinger]

It all comes down to the speed of the draft-development cycle. If the team's picks don't need a. Lot of 'cooking time' in the minors it will be quicker. The team already has a group of good younger players - ie Nylander, Rielly, Kadri. They aren't starting from scratch.

 

[Bobs your uncle]

if everything goes right, you are still looking at two ELC cycles from when Nylander hits the ice, in my opinion. And that's if everything goes right.and that'minimum. but I am not looking for timetables, simple progress. so if there is one bad year, one amazing year, one what the hell (negative or positive). if we do a Colorado/Tampa Bay yoyo before we stablize, as long as we stick to the path of drafting amazingly, and develop then it takes as long as it takes.

I'm in agreement. A couple-three of ELC cycles sounds about right.
The Leaf prospect pipeline currently is mediocre at best.
Some lucky drafting and a development system to grow these selections will go a long way.
Rushing Nylander before he is ready is a disservice to the players long term maturation.
I'm thinking 5-7 years before they are strong enough to begin to push.

 

[ConnorTO]

depends, if phil and dion are traded

then they would want an oiler rebuild

 

[nsleaf]

Too many variables to even guess. Sure would like to see Leaf playoff hockey though. Beggars can't be choosers.

 

[James Duthie]

3-4 years max I hope.

 

[nsleaf]

Too many variables to even guess. Sure would like to see Leaf playoff hockey though.

 

[91Kadri91*]

There's that Alexander Steen guy too.

And Stralman, who can easily be argued a top-pairing defenseman.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Why it won't be long.

Most teams don't have Kessel,Phaneuff,Kadri,Bozak,Bernier as trade bait.They could load up on firsts right now and with Reilly,Nylander do a very quick rebuild. I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year but soon some of those teams above us will get old and rebuild i.e Boston,Detroit(possibly),NYR is getting old.

Imagine 4/5 firsts in this draft.

 

[TLeafsFan]

I'll go with an optimistic 1-3 years on the premise that the team will improve as a whole if the "core" of Kessel, Bozak and Phaneuf is actually jettisoned.

 

[hotpaws]

they're going to want a decent team by our centennial year so that's the time frame i'm using for our rebuild

 

[Beaviz81]

I'll go with an optimistic 1-3 years on the premise that the team will improve as a whole if the "core" of Kessel, Bozak and Phaneuf is actually jettisoned.

Without 10+ really unfortunate airplane-crashes how do you imagine this to actually happen?

 

[TLeafsFan]

Without 10+ really unfortunate airplane-crashes how do you imagine this to actually happen?

Ask Hammond and the Sens.

 

[Beaviz81]

Ask Hammond and the Sens.

They are a fringe-team capitalizing on the Bruins' temporary weakness. I would give it a season to see if the Bruins really is this weak or if it is a temporary setback as they have made major changes to their roster this season. And same with Ottawa being this strong. They might be, but it can be they are feasting on Boston's temporary weakness.

 

[TLeafsFan]

They are a fringe-team capitalizing on the Bruins' temporary weakness. I would give it a season to see if the Bruins really is this weak or if it is a temporary setback as they have made major changes to their roster this season. And same with Ottawa being this strong. They might be, but it can be they are feasting on Boston's temporary weakness.

A 15-1-1 run is quite the feast.

So is Hammond's 14-0-1.

 

[burpsalot]

I guess part of it will depend on what people consider the success of a rebuild. If we are talking of making the playoffs or being a competitive challenger for the Stanley Cup. I'll base it on making the playoffs, 3-4 years. If we get McDavid you could probably accelerate the rebuild & reduce it by a year. To be a real challenger for the cup, you could probably add another 3 years to the first numbers.

 

[Beaviz81]

A 15-1-1 run is quite the feast.

So is Hammond's 14-0-1.

I just have to check. You ain't that deluded to think those streaks would last forever?

 

[Christ]

I would say 3-5 years but that all depends on our drafting, our luck with the lottery this year and what kind of value we get for our current core over the summer. A good coach would help too.

 

[Auston Matthews]

The ONLY way we surprise people next year is if we draft McDavid, trade Kessel for a couple of solid pieces, move phaneuf for a couple of solid pieces, hire babcock.

We ice a lineup of:

Jvr-McD-Nylander
Brown-(player from kessel trade)-Lupul (C)
Komarov-Bozak-(player from phaneuf trade)
Freddy the goat-Holland-Booth

(Player from Kessel trade)-Rielly
Gardiner-Polak
(Player from Phaneuf trade)-Percy

Bernier
Reims

The key to our success if we are to be successful next year is if rely on our high PDO (Insane bernier save % and high shooting %). Bernier needs to be hot, McDavid needs to play like McDavid straight out of the gate, Nylander and Brown have reasonably strong seasons production wise, Lupul resurrects his career, and the pieces from the Kessel and Phaneuf trades are really solid contributors to this team (Im thinking the Callahan for st.louis, Nash for Dubinsky type trades), Gardiner and Rielly have career highs and establish themselves as SOLID puck moving defensemen, and our depth from the guys coming up from the system such as Freddy the goat and percy contribute too.

Obviously the chance of everything going right just like the way i described is 0.05%, and please don't lash out at me as you normally would, I wrote this half seriously.