How long should a rebuild take??

[GIN ANTONIC]

4 years. There is 0 reason for a team to miss the playoffs more than 4 years in a row regardless of their current lineup, prospect/draft capital and trajectory. Bad teams make the playoffs every year. You have to be completely inept to not be competitive after 4 seasons.

 

[stevo61]

This is key and I don’t think a lot of people take this into consideration.

Detroit gets a lot of flak on here for how long it’s taking for theirs, yet they’ve not had a #1.

AZ/Utah same thing.

Columbus same thing.

Anaheim same thing.

Getting top ten picks sounds great, but not getting a franchise altering player hurts the rebuild.

I'd argue in the case of teams like Columbus/Anaheim they kind of did because they bottomed out in a year where there were 1st overall quality prospects available beyond the 1st pick. Would be cool to win a lottery but those 2 likely got their longterm 1Cs in the same draft.

All drafts obviously aren't created equal and there is some luck involved in being bad at the right time... Or just be Dallas and find talent up and down the draft

 

[Breakers]

I think it can be 4 years

You tell your owner this may be a bit expensive as we are weaponizing cap space to essentially buy draft picks.

You acquire as many damn picks as humanly possible for 4 years and have this mass of prospects.

Chicago did just that, they blew top 10 draft picks on Skille and Barker
Yet in that same 4 year span of drafts they found outside the 1st round
Hjalmarsson
Bolland
Bickell
Brouwer
Kieth
Crawford
Byfuglien

It’s about mass collection of picks

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I'd argue in the case of teams like Columbus/Anaheim they kind of did because they bottomed out in a year where there were 1st overall quality prospects available beyond the 1st pick. Would be cool to win a lottery but those 2 likely got their longterm 1Cs in the same draft.

All drafts obviously aren't created equal and there is some luck involved in being bad at the right time... Or just be Dallas and find talent up and down the draft

The jury is still out but after two seasons, I wouldn’t yet say Fantilli/Carlsson are the same level as your franchise #1 pick. I don’t think they’re on Bedard or Celebrini’s levels. (Yet). They could end up there or even better but I feel like a Bedard or Celebrini would put them further along in their rebuilds. Bedard is literally posting better numbers with terrible players around him and Celebrini came out hot from start. I’m hoping Fantilli/Carlsson get there. But I’m sure you can see my point.

 

[stevo61]

The jury is still out but after two seasons, I wouldn’t yet say Fantilli/Carlsson are the same level as your franchise #1 pick. I don’t think they’re on Bedard or Celebrini’s levels. (Yet). They could end up there or even better but I feel like a Bedard or Celebrini would put them further along in their rebuilds. Bedard is literally posting better numbers with terrible players around him and Celebrini came out hot from start. I’m hoping Fantilli/Carlsson get there. But I’m sure you can see my point.

Not really because those teams are trying to develop all around players and Chicago is just throwing Bedard out there repeatedly and letting him do whatever without much guidance. Those teams also fired defense 1st coaches that stunted offensive play, wouldn't be shocked if Anaheims offense will shoot up like Columbus' did this year with a new coach.

Bedard will be a good player but Fantilli/Carlsson are easily on his level

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Not really because those teams are trying to develop all around players and Chicago is just throwing Bedard out there repeatedly and letting him do whatever without much guidance. Those teams also fired defense 1st coaches that stunted offensive play, wouldn't be shocked if Anaheims offense will shoot up like Columbus' did this year with a new coach.

Bedard will be a good player but Fantilli/Carlsson are easily on his level

Agree to disagree then. I see Celebrini and Bedard as better than Fantilli and Carlsson, currently. Put Bedard on Anaheim or Columbus and I’d bet he’s a ppg player already. He’s nearly one on a shit team. But like I also said, that could change and I hope it does.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Depends a whole lot on the strength of the drafts

 

[Fatass]

Depends a whole lot on the strength of the drafts

Yup. And if the GM is able to attract elite free agents and or trade for elite core guys. Vegas and Florida sure did good jobs with that.

 

[amnesiac]

WSH drafted Ovi in 04, Backstrom 06... won 2018
TB drafted Stamkos 08, Hedman 09... won 2020
COL drafted MacKinnon 2013, Makar 2016... won 2022
FLA drafted Huberdeau 2011 (Tkachuk), Barkov 2013, Ekblad 2014... won 2024

only the Pens and Hawks won soon after their high picks in Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Not sure why that matters? The fact that only 50% of the teams make the playoffs should make it obvious why it takes such a long time.

This, sometimes your team is competitive for a small span of time and then trash for a decade, it’s hard to be in that top tier of contenders for a cup, especially for an extended period of time.

 

[Menzinger]

A successful one will see clear signs of progress at about the 5 year mark. If that doesn't happen, fans are in for a rough, long ride.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Just trying to figure out what people think on this.

There’s so many factors to this.

Do you already have some decent prospects in the pipeline?

Do you have top players you can trade off for more picks/prospects?

Are the top 3 picks a McDavid/Eichel/Marner type group or are they a Yakupov/Galchenyuk/Murray type group?

Do you win lottery picks or not?

There really isn’t a clear answer

 

[Gregor Samsa]

There are different types of rebuilds so it’s hard to say. Plus luck plays a factor

 

[Voodoo Child]

4-6 years sounds about right in line.

Even in a straight tear down, there's always the salary cap and therefore always a few guys who are untradeable on their current contracts, gotta watch those out.

Draft lottery luck is a huge factor, it's the difference between getting Kane and Van Riemsdyk, or Matthews and Laine, or Hughes and Kakko.

Free agency is also big. Not to dunk on Buffalo here but I feel their lack of appeal as a market, merited or not, adds years to their rebuild.

Ideally I imagine it should go like this.

1: Sell at the deadline and aggregate picks. Make minimal moves in UFA.
2-3: Bottom out, top 5 pick territory, 10+ picks a year.
4-5: Incremental in house improvement, be more ambitious in UFA.
6: Bubble or WC team.

As much as I hate to I do have to give the Habs credit. They shot for the moon in the draft instead of going safe, they made risky, audacious moves that succeeded (Monahan, Suzuki's deal, Laine to a degree) and backfired (Dach, Newhook), and even though Washington will probably beat them, they're back in the dance with a great crop of youth and even more picks coming. Not saying they'll be Cup favorites in 3-4 years, but they'll be a good team.

 

[SA16]

WSH drafted Ovi in 04, Backstrom 06... won 2018
TB drafted Stamkos 08, Hedman 09... won 2020
COL drafted MacKinnon 2013, Makar 2016... won 2022
FLA drafted Huberdeau 2011 (Tkachuk), Barkov 2013, Ekblad 2014... won 2024

only the Pens and Hawks won soon after their high picks in Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane

You should also note that those weren't their first high picks. The Penguins took Ryan Whitney 5th overall 3 years before Crosby. The Blackhawks took Cam Barker 3rd overall 3 years before getting Kane.

 

[DemidovSaveUs]

If you’re committed to a rebuild I wouldn’t start to try and come out of it for at least 5 years, and that’s if you really hit on a lot of guys. For me, I’m not leaving until I’m confident I have an elite 1C, elite 1D, and another elite level forward. From the Hawks persoective, I think if they take Misa and Misa has a good year next year, the. You can try and load up for 2026-27.

 

[izlez]

This just made me look some old stuff for the Red Wings.

When the Red Wings really started their rebuild, just BEFORE Yzerman got there, the Wings traded away one of their most valuable assets in Gustav Nyquist.

Gustav Nyquist returned a 2nd round pick.

That 2nd round pick ended up being Albert Johansson.

Albert Johansson seems to be around the ballpark of what you would expect from a 2nd round pick - a #4-#5 defenseman.

This year was Albert Johansson's rookie year in the NHL.
Rebuilds take time.