How is the Atlantic Division trending?

[The Real Pastafarian]

I see the division trending toward a muddle of parity, with no upper, middle, or lower tier of teams. The best teams are declining but not falling off a cliff; the worst teams are improving but also gradually, and none have a game-changing superstar on the horizon; and all are constrained by the cap.

By the 2026/2027 season, I think it will be hard to predict which 4 or so teams from the Atlantic will make the playoffs.

2024/2025 season: Panthers and Leafs will be there, and probably Boston; but that 4th (and maybe 5th) playoff spot could go to any of the remaining 5 teams and I wouldn't be surprised.

2025/2026: Panthers for sure, all remaining spots wide open

2026/2027: Anything goes, the top 4 teams in order might be Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa; or it could be the other 4 teams. And I don't mean it's just hard to predict right now -- I mean at the start of the 2026/2027 season, all 8 teams will be in the same tier.

 

[Henkka]

Next year it will be the SUPER STRONG division, because there's no weak teams.

All those earlier contenders are still good and all those rebuilders are going up. Even Montreal. Their kid defencemen could do a fast turnaround.

 

[Holden Caufield]

Trending heavily in favor of the Panthers right now!

They don’t have any prospects really. But then again neither has Boston for like 5 years and it hasn’t slowed them down any.

Winning culture just breeds more winning it seems and Florida have found that.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think this summer is the most important for SY

Florida and Toronto will remain at the top for next 3 seasons

Boston and Tampa will slide a bit but with Tampas core they will hang around much like we did 2012-2016

Ottawa and Buffalo should improve but I can see the curse of Buffalo continuing indefinitely, whereas Ottawa with new ownership and mgmt will sort itself out..

Montreal has done a great job..the biggest hurdle there will be convincing stars, it's own and others, to want to sign and play in Mtl longterm(amazing or awful depending on how the wind is blowing)

This is why this summer is so important for Detroit...a miss step or too big of a step backwards and we could be in trouble..we need to continue the upward trajectory or else we run the risk of being passed in short order..

 

[jkutswings]

Florida and Toronto will remain at the top for next 3 seasons

This is the only part where I'm not in lock step with you. Florida, yes. But if Toronto can't get out of the first round, sooner or later they're going to make changes. And how they handle that shake up will say a lot about whether they stick around for several more years or slide back towards the middle of the pack.

Honestly, unless they get a top pairing defensemen when they deal Marner (or Tavares or Matthews), the Leafs don't scare me.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

This is the only part where I'm not in lock step with you. Florida, yes. But if Toronto can't get out of the first round, sooner or later they're going to make changes. And how they handle that shake up will say a lot about whether they stick around for several more years or slide back towards the middle of the pack.

Honestly, unless they get a top pairing defensemen when they deal Marner (or Tavares or Matthews), the Leafs don't scare me.

I don't think Marner gets dealt no matter what happens...I'd evensay he resigns 8 years @ 11m again...

JT will resign next summer but at 1/3 his current cap hit.. 3 ×3.5-4m

Cap will go up over 90m with alot of cap space to add

So long as Matthews, Nylander and Marner are there, TML will be a playoff team

 

[jkutswings]

So long as Matthews, Nylander and Marner are there, TML will be a playoff team

Yes. And one that never goes anywhere. I certainly won't be upset if they choose to remain a paper tiger, but with the pressure of that market I would be surprised if they keep both Matthews and Marner long term.

 

[eojsmada]

I think Florida is in a strong position to remain at the top for the next two years, as long as Bobrovsky plays well and they can stay away from major injuries. Bobrosvky is 35 and only has two years left on his deal. And they have some serious salary concerns over the next couple of years to try and remain competitive.

Boston is going to remain competitive, because they always seem to make it work.

Tampa is in the slow grind of regression, mostly because they don't have the assets to make bold moves. They spent a lot of their draft capital on Jeannot, Paul, and Hagel. They also have some big issues with signing players coming over the next 3-4 years as their superstars start to come closer to the ends of their careers.

Toronto is a crapshoot. Depending on what happens this summer, could shape their fortunes for the next 5+ years. Even with a 69 goal year from Matthews, there was legitimate concern that they might not make the playoffs up until Detroit ran into that bad losing streak in March. If Toronto regresses at all, things could get dicey for them.

I think Buffalo and Ottawa are lost. They have talent but no cohesive understanding of how to make it work consistently enough. They're not in perma-rebuild, but until Ottawa's organization has its feet down and they can establish a proper plan, it's going to remain ugly. And Buffalo doesn't know how to not shoot themselves in the foot. The Ruff re-hiring was mind-boggling and just another reminder that the Pegula's have no clue how a hockey organization should be run.

Montreal, for me, is a real diamond in the rough. The emergence of Slavkovsky, combined with the general trend of their players, combined with their stockpile of prospects and defensemen, are going to be a team to watch out for in the next couple of years. They already play teams extremely hard, but just lack the forward depth and the experience to win the 10 more games they need to make the playoffs.

Detroit needs to figure out its defense, going forward, to take the next step in their evolution. They are knocking on the door, and having Edvinsson for a full season SHOULD put them over the edge, but if they can solve the Holl/Petry issues, I think they could be a 100 point team, next year.

TLDR:

Florida should stay the same for the next 2-3 years before they start to fall back a bit.

Boston should remain competitive but not superlative, running anywhere from 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the division from year to year.

Toronto, if things stay with the same delusional theme, should start to fall off. If they make sensbile/bold moves, they could start to challenge Florida.

Tampa is on a slow decline and having Kucherov throwing a career year like he did and they still were a wildcard team, doesn't bode well for them.

Detroit should improve and make the playoffs, next year, and for years to come.

Montreal will start rising from the bottom of the Atlantic this year.

Ottawa just doesn't have the defensive pieces to contend and they need to figure out what their ownership wants to do moving forward.

Buffalo is just nowhere, for me. Even when everything seemed to be going well for them, two years ago, they still couldn't sustain it. Just a real Jekyll/Hyde of a team, that I don't think has the organizational structure to allow them to be successful.

 

[jkutswings]

I think Florida is in a strong position to remain at the top for the next two years, as long as Bobrovsky plays well and they can stay away from major injuries. Bobrosvky is 35 and only has two years left on his deal. And they have some serious salary concerns over the next couple of years to try and remain competitive.

Boston is going to remain competitive, because they always seem to make it work.

Tampa is in the slow grind of regression, mostly because they don't have the assets to make bold moves. They spent a lot of their draft capital on Jeannot, Paul, and Hagel. They also have some big issues with signing players coming over the next 3-4 years as their superstars start to come closer to the ends of their careers.

Toronto is a crapshoot. Depending on what happens this summer, could shape their fortunes for the next 5+ years. Even with a 69 goal year from Matthews, there was legitimate concern that they might not make the playoffs up until Detroit ran into that bad losing streak in March. If Toronto regresses at all, things could get dicey for them.

I think Buffalo and Ottawa are lost. They have talent but no cohesive understanding of how to make it work consistently enough. They're not in perma-rebuild, but until Ottawa's organization has its feet down and they can establish a proper plan, it's going to remain ugly. And Buffalo doesn't know how to not shoot themselves in the foot. The Ruff re-hiring was mind-boggling and just another reminder that the Pegula's have no clue how a hockey organization should be run.

Montreal, for me, is a real diamond in the rough. The emergence of Slavkovsky, combined with the general trend of their players, combined with their stockpile of prospects and defensemen, are going to be a team to watch out for in the next couple of years. They already play teams extremely hard, but just lack the forward depth and the experience to win the 10 more games they need to make the playoffs.

Detroit needs to figure out its defense, going forward, to take the next step in their evolution. They are knocking on the door, and having Edvinsson for a full season SHOULD put them over the edge, but if they can solve the Holl/Petry issues, I think they could be a 100 point team, next year.

TLDR:

Florida should stay the same for the next 2-3 years before they start to fall back a bit.

Boston should remain competitive but not superlative, running anywhere from 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the division from year to year.

Toronto, if things stay with the same delusional theme, should start to fall off. If they make sensbile/bold moves, they could start to challenge Florida.

Tampa is on a slow decline and having Kucherov throwing a career year like he did and they still were a wildcard team, doesn't bode well for them.

Detroit should improve and make the playoffs, next year, and for years to come.

Montreal will start rising from the bottom of the Atlantic this year.

Ottawa just doesn't have the defensive pieces to contend and they need to figure out what their ownership wants to do moving forward.

Buffalo is just nowhere, for me. Even when everything seemed to be going well for them, two years ago, they still couldn't sustain it. Just a real Jekyll/Hyde of a team, that I don't think has the organizational structure to allow them to be successful.

I would have liked this post a dozen times if I could. Spot on.

 

[SoupNazi]

There is no way this team is trending to the top. They’re a one line team currently and pretty threadbare in elite talent. They’ll likely be a wildcard team for a few seasons till Larkin declines.

I legitimately wouldn't expect you to have any other opinion.

 

[Shaman464]

I legitimately wouldn't expect you to have any other opinion.

And it’s not changing watching at least 20 playoff games so far this year. Detroit just doesn’t have it currently. It’s up to Yzerman to change that.

 

[WaW]

I'm not as optimistic about where are right now as some others. All 3 teams that should be exiting the rebuild in the Atlantic seem a bit stuck. Ottawa's D + G is a mess, Buffalo is full of talent everywhere but their secondary roster construction (bottom 6, middle/bottom pairing D) is a complete mess, and there are alot of questions about what our front office actually thinks of our prospects, we might be turning more than a few vets this year, and we can only dress two top 4 dmen every single night as of right now until Edvinsson gets a full shot out of camp next season and proves he can fill one of those roles.

Still too early re: Montreal but I don't see them as particularly close either.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

It’s still a bloodbath, going to be a blood bath for a long time. Even the teams aging out still have quite a bit of talent. The worst part for us is the teams ahead of us all play a style that decimates us everytime we play it. High skilled, in your face forechecking teams that like to hit a lot. It’s why Ottawa has done so well against us the last 2 seasons.

 

[odin1981]

I believe that for the next 2-3 years Montreal will be tanking bottom 10 say adding assets to their rebuild, maybe longer not very sure. Toronto is stuck in mud spinning their tires until at minimum Tavares is let go and not resigned potentially a Marner trade is needed for cap space to reallocate cap to positions they need (1-2 top 2 defenders, 1 top 4 defender and then after fixing that problem a slightly above average goaltender to potentially make it out of the first round consistently.

Ottawa no idea, but more or less the same spot until it can be verified that management is competent and the new ownership is not a problem. Boston is interesting, I think they will be a steady second round playoff team but sooner or later I think they have to move a goalie to pad out the roster elsewhere.

Florida is in their window for contention I believe for around the next 2-3 years. We will probably most likely develop a rivalry with them in 2-3 year's when we start to consistently become a playoff team. Buffalo I think will still be a bottom 11-15th team. They should be climbing out of the cellar with all the top picks they have had over the past 10 year's. But I wonder if they have slum lord still ownership?

Over the next 1-2 years we are gonna climb into the playoffs as we start to integrate all the early year (1-3) Yzerman picks and naturally get off the veteran stop gap contracts.

 

[odin1981]

Forgot TB but I would guess in 2-3 years they will have to enter a retool type rebuild (say 2-4 years). I think them having Kucherov and their Vasi kind of screws them from full out tanking. So I would guess a Boston style retool.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think Detroit could either progress and gain 5-10 more points, or could drop 15-20 points, depending on what they do about goalie and right defense.

Montreal is still lacking depth and unless they get 70+ point seasons from Slaf, Suzuki and Caulfield I'm not expecting much noise from them. 9 mil in cap space and their roster is mostly full. I think they're poised for another bottom 5 finish.

Ottawa seems demoralized. Bad goaltending, bad defense, another player wanting to run away from the team ASAP (Chychrun) and no depth in their system or lower in the lineup. I also wonder if there's problems in that locker room. I expect them to be about the same as last year.

Buffalo have a ton of cap space and a lot of spaces to fill. I think they could throw a wrench into a lot of teams plans to fix themselves through FA. They need to rebuild their entire right D, 3rd and 4th lines, similar to Detroit. But 2 good signings on D and they may push Detroit to 6th in the division.

Tampa got better with McDonagh coming back but they'll have to lose Cernak, Cirelli, or even Stamkos to make it fit. They still have the foundations to be the 4th worst team in the division.\

Boston have 21 million in cap space. I think they're primed to be even better than this season. I would expect Lindholm to sign there for a good chunk of change, Swayman to get 5-6 a year, and the rest to filling out a strong bottom 6. Ugh.

Florida has 19.7 mil in space. Reinhart will eat half of that up so I would expect them to fall to 2nd or 3rd in the division after losing some depth.

f*** Toronto. They won't get any better until they move on from 2 of their big 4 and build some depth in their lineup. Berube is going to ruffle some feathers on that team and I don't know if that locker room will be able to handle it. I could see them dropping as far as 5th in the division.

 

[jkutswings]

f*** Toronto. They won't get any better until they move on from 2 of their big 4 and build some depth in their lineup. Berube is going to ruffle some feathers on that team and I don't know if that locker room will be able to handle it. I could see them dropping as far as 5th in the division.

You just HATE to see it.

 

[ricky0034]

I think Toronto more or less just stays the course

probably means they keep losing in the first round but as far as making the Playoffs goes they'll keep doing that almost every year for the next decade or so(there's probably a year or two in there somewhere where they get a bunch of injuries or something)

 

[raymond23]

I’d rather be in any other division easily

I have a hard time seeing us progress next season, hopefully I’m wrong

It doesn’t help that even the shitty teams in our division are full of lottery picks

 

[RRhoads]

I have a hard time seeing us progress next season, hopefully I’m wrong

Same here. For that to happen, we would need to get rid of some contracts, and hope for for improvements from within. Also need a legit 2RD.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Same here. For that to happen, we would need to get rid of some contracts, and hope for for improvements from within. Also need a legit 2RD.

A better schedule that allows for more practices would help a lot too.

I suspect the wings will improve more in the team defense area with a set practice schedule, but if any of the other teams make strides next year (ie Devils) then 100 points may not be enough to make the post season cut.

Parity will be the name of the game the next few seasons as builders gain and those at the top level off, but realistically, I think the wings have one more bubble year is in the cards, as SY will be doing some fine tuning this summer.

I think SY will sign Roy (RD) this summer and find a way to move Holl and likely one of Walman/Maatta, (I suspect Walman) and there will be some growing pains, but the sooner they get the kids that are ready in the lineup, the better for the overall season it will be.

I don't think he will wait for the TDL to move some of the placeholders he hoped to move this past spring, expect some movement of placeholders before July 1.

 

[Snuggs]

Red Wings are set to be bottom five currently.(IN the whole east)

They have to make a ton of moves to actually get better.

Signing (a) marginal guy like Roy isn't turning the defense into a stall-wart system.

They're lacking in talent at the top, depth, goalie, it's a good year to just sit tight, not do much and let the young kids play. Or Yzermans gonna have to make a lot of moves to actually get better.

Buffalo/Ottawa both will be better, I know people laugh, Devils will be better, Flyers are going to be much better with a stable goalie, Capitals/Penguins aren't done. Boston, Tampa, Florida, Toronto, NYR, NYI, all aren't done. I don't see Red Wings anywhere near the playoffs unless guys like Danielsson/Edvinsson/Kasper, etc, hit the ice and perform at top line, ROTY type stuff and I don't see that happening with all of them.

I know I sound like Debby--downers and it's ok, I guess someone has to be, but I've been nervous about this team's direction since the TDL, it officially felt like a major discount to me between, team, management, fans. (At least the fans that want to win and don't buy endless rebuilds.) I'm learning between hockey/basketball/baseball etc, some people don't mind the endless rebuild and enjoy watching draft stock, etc, as much as watching games.(maybe even more).

For entertainment, I find asking to be patient literally insulting while I'm still charged at a high rate to go and watch these games. Any organization that says "patients" to fans, should, imo, have 75% off tickets and beer prices.

Final says will be after July I'd say, Yzerman has a lot of "what if's". Infront of him now, plenty of work for him to sort out. We'll see in a short time what's actually done, but I'm nervous about the up coming season as it sits right now, in last week of May.