How is the 2016-2017 team better than last year's squade

[ThunderD]

Kulikov pushes Gorges down the depth chart, Pysyk was always just a bottom pairing defenseman on this team.

No it isn't worth noting, because Pysyk did not play top four minutes after December and Kulikov is a day-1 top pairing player, and Franson only becomes the #2RD if Bylsma has a stupidly rigid idea of handedness.

Also, pretty much everyone had excellent possession splits where Pysyk played the most.

Except that's not how it works since Pysyk was on the right side and Kulikov is on the left side, and they'll be playing different roles and minutes.

I'm glad there are a few members here who understand how the whole righty-lefty defenseman thing works. Pysyk is a 3rd pairing guy at best and our top 2 D are both ahead of him on the right side (given if Bogo is healthy). With Kulikov we now have a better left side guy and McCabe isn't forced into a higher role than he can handle for now. Kulikov also brings a physical game that Pysyk was not developing.

 

[ThunderD]

Bolded 1: Right, after we got healthy, which is what I'm saying.
Bolded 2: Only on this blueline.
Bolded 3: So who slots in at 2RD when Bogosian or Risto is hurt? Gorges?

All that's being said here is Kulikov is not pure addition. We also lost depth on the right side.

I know I'm going to get hammered for saying this, but why are we automatically counting on Bogo getting hurt? I don't want him for 82 games there, but as a sub I am actually fine with Franson/Nelson stepping in if it gives us Kulikov on the other side.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Bolded 1: Right, after we got healthy, which is what I'm saying.
Bolded 2: Only on this blueline.
Bolded 3: So who slots in at 2RD when Bogosian or Risto is hurt? Gorges?

All that's being said here is Kulikov is not pure addition. We also lost depth on the right side.

1: Even with Bogosian hurt, Kulikov playing with Ristolainen represents value that Pysyk could literally never provide, which is why Pysyk's opportunity cost isn't high.
2: If Kulikov is only good relative to our defense, you should probably stop making Fowler proposals.
3: Any of McCabe, Kulikov or Gorges.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The equation:
Ristolainen
Bogo
Gorges
McCabe
Pysyk

Into

Ristolainen
Bogo/Kulikov
Bogo/Kulikov
McCabe
Gorges

I'd say that's worth.

 

[Dubi Doo]

People keep talking about "adding Kulikov" as if he were a pure addition. But in reality, Kulikov is replacing Pysyk.

Kulikov is only going to improve the team insofar and inasmuch as he is a better player than Mark Pysyk. I think he is a better player, but the difference isn't that drastic.

The net effect of that deal will be the addition of what Kulikov brings MINUS the subtraction of what Pysk brought. I think on the whole it is still a net positive for the Sabres, but it's not a case of pure addition (as with signing Okposo as a UFA).

Kulikov is not replacing Pysyk. You're comparing a 3rd pairing RHD to a top-4 LHD. Apples to oranges.
You're view of the trade is very narrow-sighted, and I mean that in the least disrespectful way as possible. It's not just that Kulikov is a better defenseman than Pysyk that's going to be a net positive. You're completely ignoring what the addition of Kulikov does from a team management perspective.

 

[Dex]

People keep talking about "adding Kulikov" as if he were a pure addition. But in reality, Kulikov is replacing Pysyk.

Kulikov is only going to improve the team insofar and inasmuch as he is a better player than Mark Pysyk. I think he is a better player, but the difference isn't that drastic.

The net effect of that deal will be the addition of what Kulikov brings MINUS the subtraction of what Pysk brought. I think on the whole it is still a net positive for the Sabres, but it's not a case of pure addition (as with signing Okposo as a UFA).

I think that Kulikov on the left will prove to be noticeably better than Pysyk on the left. That's the key to the argument, I think.

 

[Dubi Doo]

This is worth noting, particularly for the part of the season where bogosian is hurt. It propels franson into our top 4.

The defense just isn't very deep in general, and never has been since the rebuild started. That is a problem in the short-term. No doubt about it. Still, adding a top-4 defenseman to the left side was a colossal need, so giving up some depth on the right side is a major net positive.

 

[Husko]

People keep talking about "adding Kulikov" as if he were a pure addition. But in reality, Kulikov is replacing Pysyk.

Kulikov is only going to improve the team insofar and inasmuch as he is a better player than Mark Pysyk. I think he is a better player, but the difference isn't that drastic.

The net effect of that deal will be the addition of what Kulikov brings MINUS the subtraction of what Pysk brought. I think on the whole it is still a net positive for the Sabres, but it's not a case of pure addition (as with signing Okposo as a UFA).

Well, if you want to break it down into a mathematical equation, it's the difference of Kulikov versus Pysyk + the difference between Kulikov and whoever he is taking an addition 5 minutes from (difference in Pysyk and Kulikov's ice time). That can't be overstated, IMO.

 

[brian_griffin]

For sure Kyle Okposo is a major add and Kulikov is strong but what real difference is there this year versus last year?

Ultimately, we are buying into this team being a year older and more mature. Upside out there, WITHOUT QUESTION, for Eichel/Reinhart/Risto/Girgensons/Larsson/McCabe/Lehner/Ennis.

But there is potential for downside from Kane (more off ice stuff/suspension), Gorges/Gionta (aging), Franson is a who knows, Moulson can be worse. And of course we traded Pysyk.

I feel like O'Reilly is awesome and not noticed around the NHL. He'll stay healthy but how much more upside does he have? Foligno is 25 and a solid player but he's not breaking out into more. Bogosian is solid too but he'll be injured a few times this year.

And our backup goaltending doesn't look great and that's key.

I guess there are possibilities like Fasching, Bailey, Guele making the lineup and having a major impact too.

This season is shaping up to be all about Dan Bylsma taking young talented players and forging them into stars. This many very well happen. The 2005-2006 came out of nowhere in a way. But I kinda wish we added some more players with experience. We're mostly capped out so this is our team.

Well, as you said we added a top 6 W and a top 4 D. Those are pretty major contributions you gloss over in a line, especially since we didn't lose anyone of significance other than our backup goalie.

As Husko noted, that's a big add to essentially dismiss.

We don't need O'Reilly to play better / have upside. We need him to not get burnt out and have some gas left in the tank for the playoffs.

Backup goaltending is about as important as humpbacked goatlending. Of the 14 teams who didn't make the playoffs over the past few seasons, can you name ones that absolutely didn't because of backup goaltending??????

Zemgus-Will put up better points(40)
Ennis-Will put up 40-55
Moulson will get better and put up 35-40
Addition of Okposo
Hopefully a full year of Lehner. Who when he played was a great goaltender for us.
Reinhart and Eichel are too smart and gifted to have a sophomore slump. Eichel with 75-80 points, Reinhart with 60-70.
People can bring up the idea that points are overrated but points=wins.

Half of those are addition from subtraction last year. Our next big scoring acquisition will be Nylander next year.

Points don't equal wins as strongly as goal differential equals wins, but I'll carry your argument forward... IF the Sabres improved their scoring as you note above, and give up the same # of goals as last year, their goal differential should improve enough to get them in the bottom tier of the playoff teams. On a straight goals-for basis, they would be somewhere 5-10th in the league. I don't expect as much improvement as you cite, but the premise is sound.

1) A full season of the coach knowing Sam Reinhart is good.
2) Our second most difficult usage defender from last season now plays on the third pairing.
3) The coach said nice things about getting a top 25 offensive defenseman some shifts in the offensive zone.
4) Kulikov does all the transition stuff people throwing first round picks at Cam Fowler rave about.
5) A full season of the coach knowing Johan Larsson should play center.
6) A full season of the coach knowing Johan Larsson is good defensively.
7) Kyle Okposo is replacing one of Brian Gionta or Jamie McGinn from last season's top six RW.
8) Evander Kane can't possibly shoot that poorly again, can he?
9) Forwards that looked decent in short term action last year can start to provide 10-20 games of effective depth play and general competition.
10) Our top three forwards are under 25.

Well-put.

I know I'm going to get hammered for saying this, but why are we automatically counting on Bogo getting hurt? I don't want him for 82 games there, but as a sub I am actually fine with Franson/Nelson stepping in if it gives us Kulikov on the other side.

I agree it's as ridiculous as (implicitly) assuming all the other key pieces on the team will play essentially full seasons.

 

[Kennerdell]

Points don't equal wins as strongly as goal differential equals wins, but I'll carry your argument forward... IF the Sabres improved their scoring as you note above, and give up the same # of goals as last year, their goal differential should improve enough to get them in the bottom tier of the playoff teams. On a straight goals-for basis, they would be somewhere 5-10th in the league. I don't expect as much improvement as you cite, but the premise is sound.

Not to be a horses you know what but you do know where goal differential numbers are derived from, correct? They are a byproduct of point production.

GF/GA Increase one and even if the latter remains stagnant you will improve. Increased GF/GA and you got wins. Unless we somehow manage to lose a half dozen games by a score of 12-0 each time.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

If you believe those players will put up points in that point range then Buffalo would have one of the most potent offenses in the league. It could happen but the likely reality is guys like Girgensons and Moulson will struggle to put up 30 without a role, Ennis will struggle to put up 40 with a diminished role from what he had in 13-14 and the addition of Okposo.

Ennis has put 40 points up in roles lower than his 13-14 role as 1C. He could do 20/20 on a 2nd or 3rd line.

 

[Kennerdell]

Ennis has put 40 points up in roles lower than his 13-14 role as 1C. He could do 20/20 on a 2nd or 3rd line.

I'm not saying this is feasible but its a dream of mine. Look at Afinogenovs stat lines and tell me they are not identical to Ennis'. Then Afino gets a loaded roster and puts up big points. Put Ennis with playmakers and he will flourish. This so long as he does not get the Timmay C. post concussion stuff. He seems like a good guy and dealt with the worst crap imaginable(our rebuild). Would be nice for him to take this opportunity and run with it.

 

[ThunderD]

I agree it's as ridiculous as (implicitly) assuming all the other key pieces on the team will play essentially full seasons.

Well the pandora's box you open there is who are you predicting to get injured for say 1/2 a season? Then why not predict that every other team will have 1 key player get injured for 1/2 a season and isn't it all a wash?

Getting back to Bogo, I know he is injury prone and add in the fact that this is biased, can't we wonder if his style might change a little this year that will make him less injury prone? I'm not saying he will become Erik Karlson, he may though get more involved in the rush and Byslma may use him and the whole back end differently. He may even get some PPTOI. If that happens shouldn't we think that can change his history?

 

[jBuds]

Except that's not how it works since Pysyk was on the right side and Kulikov is on the left side, and they'll be playing different roles and minutes.

It's a defensive UNIT. It's not just about how much Pysyk underwhelmed, or how incredibly ridiculously nasty Kuli will be..))... It's about what that move does for the rest of the unit and how it enables our staff to MAXIMIZE guys in the corps.

Gorges in a different, lower-minute role is a good thing, and only possible because Kulikov should be able to play top four minutes in his stead. Make that switch, and then if you still (wildly) feel that you see a gaping hole left by Pysyk's departure, you move guys around.

I don't think any of that is a stunning revelation...

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Made this post too early.

Girgensons signing shows Murray has cap room and I have to think more tinkering is coming. I'm expecting one more decent vet in this lineup. We'll see.

 

[Kardi]

Any guesses on what the first pp squad will look like?

 

[Samsonite23]

Any guesses on what the first pp squad will look like?

4 are pretty obvious. Jack, ROR, Samson, Risto. 5th one, I'd bet Ennis.

 

[brian_griffin]

Not to be a horses you know what but you do know where goal differential numbers are derived from, correct? They are a byproduct of point production.

GF/GA Increase one and even if the latter remains stagnant you will improve. Increased GF/GA and you got wins. Unless we somehow manage to lose a half dozen games by a score of 12-0 each time.

My reply above was supporting your premise, not rebutting it. I mentally apportioned your projected higher points between goals and assists, added the projected increased goals to last years team total, and said if BUF could do that, they likely make the playoffs. I agree with your reasoning (although I think the increased scoring will be a little less than you project).

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Backup goaltending is about as important as humpbacked goatlending. Of the 14 teams who didn't make the playoffs over the past few seasons, can you name ones that absolutely didn't because of backup goaltending??????.

Strongly disagree with this. With a bubble team like the Sabres, the difference between making the play-off and missing is razor thin. Even ignoring Lehner's injury history, the backup is likely to play 20+ games. A bubble team that loses out on 3-5 points when the backup plays is really making it hard for themselves.

I really like Lehner and think he's got a ton of potential, but then add in the fact that he has never even played half a season's games at the NHL level. IMO, goaltending is the biggest risk going into the 2016-17 season.

You might be right on the backup goaltender if the #1 guy was a proven horse and the roster was significantly better than the other bubble teams. I just don't see that is the case.

 

[Kennerdell]

My reply above was supporting your premise, not rebutting it. I mentally apportioned your projected higher points between goals and assists, added the projected increased goals to last years team total, and said if BUF could do that, they likely make the playoffs. I agree with your reasoning (although I think the increased scoring will be a little less than you project).

Gotcha. Just misread is all. The addition of Okposo is going to have a bigger impact on our scoring then what I think a lot of people are thinking/expecting. There is a lot of talent on this roster.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Gotcha. Just misread is all. The addition of Okposo is going to have a bigger impact on our scoring then what I think a lot of people are thinking/expecting. There is a lot of talent on this roster.

Agreed, though not a lot of depth in spots, and I think injuries (or the lack thereof) will be key for the Sabres this season.

Still, you take a team that played very-well the second half of last season and..:

1. Add Ennis
2. Add Okposo
3. Add Kulikov at the cost of Pysyk. This is still a net positive.
4. Lehner is healthy (I assume).
5. The young guys have a year of experience.

I think this is a team that can challenge for a playoff spot, but still has a few holes to fill before being considered a contender.