How is almost every Sabres player scoring way above their xG 5on5?

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This isn't just a case of their top-line scoring above their xG, even most of their bottom-pairing forwards and Dman are having unsustainable shooting percentages 5on5. Plus while Tage Thompson is an excellent player and shooter, he's well above the second player in scoring above his xG 5on5, with 7 goals scored above his expected. Kucherov one of the best players in the league has only 5 goals scored above his expected. Byram has a pathetic xG and has scored 3 goals, and from replays, all of them were extremely soft and terrible goals for goalies to give up.

Only Vegas has had more unsustainable shooting than the Sabres. Even the elite top of the league teams haven't nearly the same success as Sabres in 5on5 scoring above their expected goals. The Sabres had a single high danger chance all game 5on5 and scored 4 goals...

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[Three On Zero]

Because xG is a flawed advanced stat.

Better question is when will Buffalo start the rebuild of the rebuild of the rebuild.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

A goals a goal , it's not that deep man...

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This isn't just a case of their top-line scoring above their xG, even most of their bottom-pairing forwards and Dman are having unsustainable shooting percentages 5on5. Plus while Tage Thompson is an excellent player and shooter, he's well above the second player in scoring above his xG 5on5, with 7 goals scored above his expected. Kucherov one of the best players in the league has only 5 goals scored above his expected. Byram has a pathetic xG and has scored 3 goals, and from replays, all of them were extremely soft and terrible goals for goalies to give up.

Only Vegas has had more unsustainable shooting than the Sabres. Even the elite top of the league teams haven't nearly the same success as Sabres in 5on5 scoring above their expected goals. The Sabres had a single high danger chance all game 5on5 and scored 4 goals...

View attachment 929306

Because things like expected goals aren't the entire puzzle, they're just a piece of it and it's not something that should be used at a micro level, but rather a macro level when analyzing a certain amount of games (The more the better) rather than just an individual game.

And it doesn't account for talent, someone like Tage Thompson who is one of the best goal scorers in the league is very likely to outperform his expected goal total.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Because things like expected goals aren't the entire puzzle, they're just a piece of it and it's not something that should be used at a micro level, but rather a macro level when analyzing a certain amount of games (The more the better) rather than just an individual game.

And it doesn't account for talent, someone like Tage Thompson who is one of the best goal scorers in the league is very likely to outperform his expected goal total.

Okay well even in Byram's case every goal I've seen him score this year are goals that beer league goalies would get shit on for letting in. I haven't analyzed every goal scored by the rest of the team to make a judgment.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Because xG is a flawed advanced stat.

Better question is when will Buffalo start the rebuild of the rebuild of the rebuild.

Agree, but don’t tell that to the Jersey poster, that’s their go to stat.

 

[Three On Zero]

Agree, but don’t tell that to the Jersey poster, that’s their go to stat.

Advanced stats are far too subjective for a team sport like hockey, players are constantly playing out of position and are being heavily influenced by others on the ice.

 

[Romang67]

What do you mean, how? We're 16 games into the season.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This isn't just a case of their top-line scoring above their xG, even most of their bottom-pairing forwards and Dman are having unsustainable shooting percentages 5on5. Plus while Tage Thompson is an excellent player and shooter, he's well above the second player in scoring above his xG 5on5, with 7 goals scored above his expected. Kucherov one of the best players in the league has only 5 goals scored above his expected. Byram has a pathetic xG and has scored 3 goals, and from replays, all of them were extremely soft and terrible goals for goalies to give up.

Only Vegas has had more unsustainable shooting than the Sabres. Even the elite top of the league teams haven't nearly the same success as Sabres in 5on5 scoring above their expected goals. The Sabres had a single high danger chance all game 5on5 and scored 4 goals...

View attachment 929306

It’s a thing where the puck crosses far enough over the goal line to count, then they award the Sabres something called a “goal”. I think they do it by shooting the puck, not certain on that though, and in small sample sizes some of those goals may not look great. Think they still count the same though, thus your confusion.

Srsly though, the f*** kinda explanation do you expect? Sorcery? Doctored pucks? Voodoo? If you wanna say Sabres are due to sink just say it, that’s fairer than a question when you know the answer.

 

[Barrie22]

It’s a thing where the puck crosses far enough over the goal line to count, then they award the Sabres something called a “goal”. I think they do it by shooting the puck, not certain on that though, and in small sample sizes some of those goals may not look great. Think they still count the same though, thus your confusion.

Srsly though, the f*** kinda explanation do you expect? Sorcery? Doctored pucks? Voodoo? If you wanna say Sabres are due to sink just say it, that’s fairer than a question when you know the answer.

Don't think it's called a shot, joe thornton had 430 goals in his career and never shot the puck once.