How good would Crosby have been if not for injuries?

[daver]

2007 Crosby also had 82 points in his first 47 games.

Now you are just cherrypicking stats to fit your narrative. Is the "first 47 games of a season" the metric in which to measure a player's peak?

We know how he finished that season.

 

[Video Nasty]

To be fair, 120 at that time is still really, really damn good. We didn't see anyone hit 120 for a 12 year stretch (I know Ovechkin paced for 122 and Malkin for 119 in that time, those seasons are why I'm fairly confident he would have done it as they are all very close to each other at their peaks.)

Absolutely. I don’t see anything wrong with thinking he notches 120. It’s expecting him to score 66/132 and score at the rate he did for 99 games during those three seasons for another 113 that I’ve always had an issue with.

2011 Crosby had 65 points in 39 before the Washington game, to give some idea, top 5 points after that game in the nhl:

Sedin: 59 (47 games)
Perry: 56
Iginla: 52
St-Louis:51
Selanne: 47

.... 55 points to finish with 120 is certainly reasonable, it would be keeping up with Corey Perry getting hot that won the hart for that second half level of play, that putting an incredible first half + Perry second half together.

Better than Stamkos going from 56 down to 39 between those 2 halves.

If he play 40 games and get his career (at that point) 1.39ppg, that 55-56 points.

120 points in 2011, that 50% higher than the #10 scorer (Zetterberg 80pts now that Crosby take a spot), that about the same as 1999 Jagr (53%) , 2023 McDavid (50%) or 2024 Kucherov (47%), i.e. clearly among the best non Gretzky-Lemieux-Esposito season in that regard, would trail Yzerman 155 (58%) and some others that I cannot think of, but would be up there with the best of them.

120 points in 2011 Hockey, it is really a lot of points, peak Sedins or Stamkos-StLouis combo playing together had an hard time scoring 100. And it would have been doing it with Kunitz-Dupuis.

As noted, 115-120 is reasonable and I don’t deny he almost certainly sweeps the hardware if he played 75+ games.

But it’s important to note that it’s a totally different reality that plays out should Crosby have played the second half. It’s impossible to know what happens or how a race shapes up when a totally missing entity is instead there.

We saw it this past season. Kucherov and MacKinnon dueled all season long, and even McDavid stormed all the way back from 20 points down in under a month to ever so briefly reach 125 points first amongst all three. Do these three, particularly Kucherov and MacKinnon reach the heights they did if one of them is not there to spur the other on? If McDavid doesn’t hit 153 the season before, do they have a number they’d probably like to match or pass if they possibly could? We saw Kucherov go empty net crazy. You can’t convince me that he wasn’t motivated by the race itself. Even the opening that got created with trying to reach 100 assists first.

My point is, you can do whatever you want, but you really can’t just plug in numbers that didn’t happen into results that did unfold in real life. There’s infinite reactions to consider, but even the most basic throws a lot into question. Not enough for me to think Crosby would lose out on hardware, but enough where I can’t and won’t project out a 28 point Art Ross win.

 

[WalterLundy]

Now you are just cherrypicking stats to fit your narrative. Is the "first 47 games of a season" the metric in which to measure a player's peak?

We know how he finished that season.

Would probably be a better metric than the first 41 games of a season (2011) in which he was producing at a lower rate comparatively speaking to 2007 then pacing it out over 82 games to compare peer dominance vs guys who played double the length. That’s typically what is done and that is worse than using a small sample of a season that was actually played in full only for comparison purposes to another small sample size season. How he finished 2007 is irrelevant as I was just giving close sample sizes of comparable level of play.

 

[daver]

Would probably be a better metric than the first 41 games of a season (2011) in which he was producing at a lower rate comparatively speaking then pacing it out over 82 games to compare peer dominance vs guys who played double the length. That’s typically what is done and that is worse than using a small sample of a season that was actually played in full only for comparison purposes to another small sample size season. How he finished 2007 is irrelevant as I was just giving close sample sizes of comparable level of play.

The OP is not about pacing out anything. He was, by all measures, playing at his highest level of play through 39 games in 2010/11. The OP is a thought experiment about how is injuries, most notably the 10/11 one, affected his level of play, if at all.

Noone believes he was playing at a higher level in the 06/07 season.

 

[DitchMarner]

He had missed 8 games by the time he had played 52 games. Those numbers represent a 74 game season.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

He was never going to play an 82 game season so it makes no sense to give him credit for an 82 game pace.

Pace numbers are fantasy anyway. No player who misses some games was going to play an 82 game season.

Isn't the idea of using pace supposed to be to see how different stretches project over an equal number of games (like 82)? It kind of defeats the purpose if you give one player 74 fantasy games and another player 82.

Your logic is liking saying that by Dec 22, 2014, Crosby had already missed three games, so after that point it makes no sense to credit him for more than a 79 game pace that season (which he would have needed to beat Benn for the Art Ross).

 

[overpass]

Crosby himself had a comparable longer stretch of play that seems to only ever be brought up by myself of all people.

After a four point night on February 19, 2007, Crosby had 69 assists and 95 points in 56 games (59 team games). He had a 15 point lead on Lecavalier, who played 4 more games at that point, and was up by 16-20 points over St.Louis, Savard, and Thornton, who rounded out the top 5.

I remember that too! At the time I thought he was tracking similar to Gretzky's second season.

Then he broke his foot, dropped off that pace, and never got it back.

Park City Daily News

books.google.ca

 

[Video Nasty]

I remember that too! At the time I thought he was tracking similar to Gretzky's second season.

Then he broke his foot, dropped off that pace, and never got it back.

Park City Daily News

books.google.ca

Funny enough, he dropped off the pace before the broken foot game. Followed up his 95 in 56 with 11 points in 12 games (0.92), scored 2 goals during the broken foot game, then finished with 14 points in his final 11 (1.27). And in his own words, “after a couple of weeks, it didn’t have any effect.”

 

[BenchBrawl]

Crosby saved the Pens, was a flawless ambassador for the sport for 15 years+. won everything, aged like fine wine, became a complete player and a respected leader.

Injuries cheated us out of seeing him play complete seasons at his peak but other than that his career was a fairy tale.

 

[Matsun]

After 2014, he finished 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd in points (in that order). He was three points behind Benn despite Crosby missing five games.

If that's "fell off overnight" I wonder how long you sleep on average...

Season	Age	GP	Points	Art Ross	Art Ross Margin
13-14	26	80	104	104	+17
14-15	27	77	84	87	-5
15-16	28	80	85	106	-22
16-17	29	75	89	100	-11
17-18	30	82	89	108	-20

In 09 he also played 77 games like in 14 and lost the Art Ross with an 11 point margin but that was to peak OV and Malkin which is more understandable.

Season	Age	GP	Points	Art Ross	Art Ross Margin
08-09	21	77	103	113	-11

Even if Crosby was close to winning the Art Ross in 2015 that is only because literally no one had a good season that year, which makes it even weirder that 77 games wasn't enough for Crosby to win it. Same goes for OV btw, I understand he had turned into a goalscorer by this point but he played 81 games and should've taken this one.

It would be understandable if the change in Crosbys results were because of the rise of new talents, but they only really started to show up in 2018 and especially 2019. By 2018 I'm not sure I expect Crosby to win the Art Ross, but I don't think it's unfair to expect him to be within 20 points when he is healthy. 2017 was his best season in the period because he was on pace to put up a Art Ross, but even then Patrick Kane was more impressive the season before.

 

[daver]

Season	Age	GP	Points	Art Ross	Art Ross Margin
13-14	26	80	104	104	+17
14-15	27	77	84	87	-5
15-16	28	80	85	106	-22
16-17	29	75	89	100	-11
17-18	30	82	89	108	-20

In 09 he also played 77 games like in 14 and lost the Art Ross with an 11 point margin but that was to peak OV and Malkin which is more understandable.

Season	Age	GP	Points	Art Ross	Art Ross Margin
08-09	21	77	103	113	-11

Even if Crosby was close to winning the Art Ross in 2015 that is only because literally no one had a good season that year, which makes it even weirder that 77 games wasn't enough for Crosby to win it. Same goes for OV btw, I understand he had turned into a goalscorer by this point but he played 81 games and should've taken this one.

It would be understandable if the change in Crosbys results were because of the rise of new talents, but they only really started to show up in 2018 and especially 2019. By 2018 I'm not sure I expect Crosby to win the Art Ross, but I don't think it's unfair to expect him to be within 20 points when he is healthy. 2017 was his best season in the period because he was on pace to put up a Art Ross, but even then Patrick Kane was more impressive the season before.

He was off to a great start in 14/15, a 1.50 PPG after 22 games: NHL Stats

Then he dealt with a viral infection that clearly affected his level of play. At this point, the randomness and/or timing of his injuries had reached almost comedic level complimented this time by a visual: https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/sidney-crosby-diagnosed-with-mumps-1.2872807.

The Pens also saw their team's offense, and fortunes, flounder as their new coach Mike Johnston instituted a defense first system that clearly did not work. It was similar to Boudreau's reigning in the Caps offense in 10//11 that saw OV's production take a significant dip. That continued until he was replaced by Sullivan in December of 2015. Crosby was at a 0.71 PPG through 34 games in 15/16 then was at a 1.33 PPG the rest of the way.

So a combination of an injury and a dramatic, and ill-advised, strategic change saw Crosby with a 0.87 PPG over an 89 game period. From late December 2015 to April 2017, he is the leading scorer and the leading goalscorer, leads the World Cup in scoring and wins the MVP and wins Two Conn Smythes. Almost unbelievably, he has two more concussions during this stretch.

In 17/18, it's all about winning a 3rd Cup in a row. Crosby has one of the era's best playoff runs through 2 rounds.

In 18/19, at age 31, Crosby has morphed into the league's best 2-way player and finishes 2nd in Hart voting.

It is reasonable to say he went from his peak to post-peak from 14/15 to 18/19. He "fell off a cliff" for a 90 game stretch then has a stretch until the end the 18/19 season that only a handful of players in NHL history would see as underperforming:

Two Cups
Two Conn Smythes
1 Rocket
Two 2nd places in Hart voting
Three Top 5s in Art Ross scoring
1 World Cup MVP
Leading playoff scorer

His "fell off the cliff season" sees him lead the league in PPG and finish four points out of the Art Ross.

 

[Midnight Judges]

In 18/19, at age 31, Crosby has morphed into the league's best 2-way player and finishes 2nd in Hart voting.

lol.

Crosby plays about as much defense as Steven Stamkos.

 

[WalterLundy]

lol.

Crosby plays about as much defense as Steven Stamkos.

The defensive play, two way wizardry, 200 foot monster myth is pretty annoying. He’s a great offensive player who is relatively responsible defensively. I don’t have the numbers for his defense but I have been able to see him play live over a hundred times easily and he’s objectively not a great defensive player. That’s a myth. He’s not horrific either from what I see but this narrative that he’s this great defensive player is just not true.

 

[Dingo]

The defensive play, two way wizardry, 200 foot monster myth is pretty annoying. He’s a great offensive player who is relatively responsible defensively. I don’t have the numbers for his defense but I have been able to see him play live over a hundred times easily and he’s objectively not a great defensive player. That’s a myth. He’s not horrific either from what I see but this narrative that he’s this great defensive player is just not true.

it came about the moment it was clear he would end his career with two art rosses, due to McDingles, mostly.

I suspect two Rosses isnt enough for a guy who is put on Mt Rushmore with Mario, Wayne and now McD. The narrative implied to me was 'he is sacrificing offense for his team, what a winner'. He came close to winning the Selke one year... then they sort of gave up on the narrative a bit...... because it doesnt stand to scrutiny.

 

[Video Nasty]

it came about the moment it was clear he would end his career with two art rosses, due to McDingles, mostly.

I suspect two Rosses isnt enough for a guy who is put on Mt Rushmore with Mario, Wayne and now McD. The narrative implied to me was 'he is sacrificing offense for his team, what a winner'. He came close to winning the Selke one year... then they sort of gave up on the narrative a bit...... because it doesnt stand to scrutiny.

McDavid can't take all the credit though. While still just 27 and 28 and within his own control, Crosby finished behind Benn in two straight scoring races, as well as Tavares, and then got torn apart by Kane the year McDavid entered the league. Then McDavid put an end to any fantasy of Crosby winning a third Art Ross when he left Crosby in the dust forever during the final quarter of his sophomore season.

Spot on about the scrambling for a narrative when certain pages of the fairy tale were torn out and thrown away.

 

[Dingo]

McDavid can't take all the credit though. While still just 27 and 28 and within his own control, Crosby finished behind Benn in two straight scoring races, as well as Tavares, and then got torn apart by Kane the year McDavid entered the league. Then McDavid put an end to any fantasy of Crosby winning a third Art Ross when he left Crosby in the dust forever during the final quarter of his sophomore season.

Spot on about the scrambling for a narrative when certain pages of the fairy tale were torn out and thrown away.

I think for people who wanted Art Rosses for Sid it was easy to say he had some bad luck in regards to Benn, and the injuries beforehand. I would think most thought he would eventually get #3 and probably #4. I know I did think this. McDavid kinda sealed the tomb.

it went from 'If Crosby plays a whole healthy season like we know he can" to "...... if McDavid gets injured and Crosby manages to squeek by this Kucherov guy... and Kane doesnt get hot... and he stays healthy...... damn, he sure is good in his own end these days! Maturing like Yzerman!"

 

[daver]

The defensive play, two way wizardry, 200 foot monster myth is pretty annoying. He’s a great offensive player who is relatively responsible defensively. I don’t have the numbers for his defense but I have been able to see him play live over a hundred times easily and he’s objectively not a great defensive player. That’s a myth. He’s not horrific either from what I see but this narrative that he’s this great defensive player is just not true.

Who is saying anything close to this exaggerated narrative? Nobody is except the hockey media and the NHLPA. Voted Most Complete player 5 years in a row: https://www.nhlpa.com/player-poll/2023-24

Your use of extremes is telling. There is plenty of space between "two way wizardry, 200 foot monster" and "not horrific".

Is Crosby a "shutdown" C? No, but neither was any other forward in the Top 20. Bobby Clarke is the closest. And at some point, using Crosby in an exclusively shutdown role would be a negative use of his offensive talents.

Crosby has arguably the most versatile offensive game of the all-time greats, and arguably brings the most besides offense other than Howe. He has notably been able to produce regardless of who is on his line which can be directly connected to the Pens team success. He has easily slid into a 2-way C role when needed and both times his team put on a dominant performance (the 2014 Olympics and the 2016 Pens).

He has been a rich man's Yzerman (post-peak) for the past five/six seasons.

 

[blundluntman]

I'd really have loved to see a Crosby that didn't suffer that high ankle sprain injury in 08. Early Crosby (in particular during his 07 hart season) had an explosiveness that really meshed well with his gritty/energetic grinding style of hockey. I've said it before but I actually prefered his game stylistically over McDavid's around that time (not saying he was better, just more fun to watch personally). I'd love to see how much more dynamic he would've been in his peak years like 2010-11 if he had the explosiveness to match the IQ/Skill. He'd likely be very close to what McDavid is now offensively but it's impossible to say.