How good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

[Overrated]

We've seen each division (slightly modified) as its own league though in 2020-21. And the weakest "league" in that setup, the Canadian Division dominated the top of the scoring table. Not to mention that your Connor McDavid example falls apart there, because he was uniquely dominant in that setting. He outscored the closest non-teammate in the league by 52%. As good as he is, that's not even something he does. If he were doing that as a course of normal business, we'd be talking about him with Gretzky.

To give a comparison, had he outscored 3rd place by 52% in his 152-point season, third place would have had 99 points. In reality, that tied for 12th. No, you're not going to convince me that giving a weaker league setup didn't inflate the best. I can listen to an argument that the 60s were stronger. I can't listen to one that the 50s weren't strong, because the facts simply don't bear it out.

It wouldn't inflate his totals I meant. That is why I mentioned that as a response to the arbitrary 50 goal line. It would of course inflate his VS 2nd 3rd whatever thing you guys are using in many threads which is exactly my argument too when it comes down to old eras. Their VS 2nd 3rd are super inflated. You should instead compare them to for example the average forward who has played 80% or more games or to the average first and second liners who have played more than 80% or more games.

 

[Albatros]

Are you aware that there were not only 18 forwards in the sport of hockey back then? There were hundreds and hundreds of competitive forwards who wanted to make the NHL -- just like now. But back then, the pro-ranks weren't watered down.

That's something you necessarily need to master if you're anything close to the greatest goal scorer of all time.

 

[Professor What]

It wouldn't inflate his totals I meant. That is why I mentioned that as a response to the arbitrary 50 goal line. It would of course inflate his VS 2nd 3rd whatever thing you guys are using in many threads which is exactly my argument too when it comes down to old eras. Their VS 2nd 3rd are super inflated. You should instead compare them to for example the average forward who has played 80% or more games or to the average first and second liners who have played more than 80% or more games.

So rather than compare to the best, compare to the average? Nah, not interested. I want to know how a guy does compared to the best of his era. It's going to be far less noisy over time than the average would. Do you not think "vs-average" would be inflated during times such as the rapid expansion of the 70s?

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Then what I'm saying is correct.

Let me explain in another way.

Suppose a player played only in the 1995 lockout season that was 48 games long. Suppose he scored 32 goals in that season. That's an excellent season, that is 55 adjusted goals. If you were to calculate his career adjusted goals per game average you would get 55/48= 1.13 adjusted goals per game. Wow awesome right? He's the greatest adjusted goal scorer of all time. No, not really. Because the reason 32 goals is 55 adjusted goals is because it is extrapolated over a full 82 game season, which the player did not play. Therefore, what he really has is 55 adjusted goals in 82 adjusted games and his career adjusted goals per game average should be counted as such.

This greatly affects the career average of this hypothetical one season player, and certainly it affects other players a lot less when it is only one of many seasons that they played. But it does affect them, considering you are adding approximately 34 career games to the bottom half of the equation and zero goals to the top half.

Make sense?

Yes but I literally said the adjusted goals totals in that chart are unimportant lol

 

[JackSlater]

So was how good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

to make it simpler is overrated as a goal for having so many goals but it took him 1,767 for him to get that many.

Would you like Howe better as a goal scorer if he'd been slower to make the NHL or, I don't know, died before he could play the 1980 season?

You can trim off some of Howe's early and late seasons (specifically his first three and final two) and end up with 728 goals in 1466 games. Howe would still be in the top ten all time NHL goals, seventh to be exact, and have fewer games played than four of the top ten. None of the other top ten peaked in as low a scoring environment as Howe did. Jagr would only have 38 more goals in 267 more games. This would just be a version of Howe who contributed less though.

 

[Overrated]

So rather than compare to the best, compare to the average? Nah, not interested. I want to know how a guy does compared to the best of his era. It's going to be far less noisy over time than the average would. Do you not think "vs-average" would be inflated during times such as the rapid expansion of the 70s?

Of course I think so. That was probably the weakest NHL there has ever been since the end of WW2. Comparing to the 5th highest PPG player however will inflate all older eras with smaller talent pools.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Then what I'm saying is correct.

Let me explain in another way.

Suppose a player played only in the 1995 lockout season that was 48 games long. Suppose he scored 32 goals in that season. That's an excellent season, that is 55 adjusted goals. If you were to calculate his career adjusted goals per game average you would get 55/48= 1.13 adjusted goals per game. Wow awesome right? He's the greatest adjusted goal scorer of all time. No, not really. Because the reason 32 goals is 55 adjusted goals is because it is extrapolated over a full 82 game season, which the player did not play. Therefore, what he really has is 55 adjusted goals in 82 adjusted games and his career adjusted goals per game average should be counted as such.

This greatly affects the career average of this hypothetical one season player, and certainly it affects other players a lot less when it is only one of many seasons that they played. But it does affect them, considering you are adding approximately 34 career games to the bottom half of the equation and zero goals to the top half.

Make sense?

This is exactly the issue. hockey-reference.com adjusts goals (assists, points, etc) but it doesn't adjust games played. Therefore any calculation using adjusted goals and actual games played will be inaccurate.

 

[seventieslord]

Yes but I literally said the adjusted goals totals in that chart are unimportant lol

And it's not the adjusted goals that are wrong, is the adjusted goals per game which is the important part according to you isn't it?

 

[authentic]

I feel like this is not accurate. I did a comparison of the best consecutive 10-year stretches between the best goal scorers in history a while back, the HF conversion wiped the tables I made but I do have a screenshot of the results:

View attachment 914664

This was before Ovechkin won a couple more rockets but I don't think that meaningfully increased his GPG.

I suppose the coming-out-of-retirement years really did a number on Lemieux's GPG in that case. As for the emphasis on that number of games, it was mostly done to encapsulate a player's prime years, but obviously Ovechkin's goal scoring has persisted way far out from the norm.

This is exactly why Lemieux is the best goal scorer of all-time but Ovechkin is the greatest.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

And it's not the adjusted goals that are wrong, is the adjusted goals per game which is the important part according to you isn't it?

I think the reason I'm confused here is because if I'm understanding your point correctly, it's so unbelievably wrong to adjust points that way that I'm not even comprehending how you thought that's what I did lol Like, of course I didn't gift players ghost points

 

[MadLuke]

I think the reason I'm confused here is because if I'm understanding your point correctly, it's so unbelievably wrong to adjust points that way that I'm not even comprehending how you thought that's what I did lol Like, of course I didn't gift players ghost points

From my understanding the point being made is that Ovechkin scored 58 adjusted goals in 2013-2014, MAtthews 63 in 2020-2021 because they adjust to an 82 goals season:

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals

www.hockey-reference.com

If someone use career adjusted goals using such value that could seem bizarre (or not) depends what you try to do, but if you use such numbers you cannot use actual games played after that....

Because Ovechkin scored 62 adjusted goal in just 48 games... well above his 2008 65 goals season adjusted goal per games.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

From my understanding the point being made is that Ovechkin scored 58 adjusted goals in 2013-2014, MAtthews 63 in 2020-2021 because they adjust to an 82 goals season:

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals

www.hockey-reference.com

If someone use career adjusted goals using such value that could seem bizarre (or not) depends what you try to do, but if you use such numbers you cannot use actual games played after that....

Because Ovechkin scored 62 adjusted goal in just 48 games... well above his 2008 65 goals season adjusted goal per games.

I didn't use Hockey Reference's adjusted figures for my data

 

[MadLuke]

I didn't use Hockey Reference's adjusted figures for my data

yes the comments was also toward who possibly used them for a quick Lemieux vs Ovechkin, that often what people mean by adjusted goals. It was a question if you did something similar.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

yes the comments was also toward who possibly used them for a quick Lemieux vs Ovechkin, that often what people mean by adjusted goals. It was a question if you did something similar.

Hell no I'm better than that lol

 

[seventieslord]

Hell no I'm better than that lol

Are you sure?

Because without vetting every single calculation, I see that you have Ovechkin with 760 GP in that table, which is the exact number of games he played in his first ten seasons. And your adjusted goals total of 503 is divided by that 760 in order to achieve the result of 0.66.

That's only correct if you either:

1. Adjusted games played upwards by 34 for the 2012-13 season (you did not)
2. Only adjusted his goals in 2012-13 for scoring level and not schedule length (did you? these are your own calculations and not based on HR so you'll have to tell us)

 

[daver]

If Howe is one of the best ever, what does it make Beliveau, he scored a bit more in the playoff, they follow each quite close in gpg every 6 years stretch, would he not be more a candidate for the most underrated goal score, has Howe quite often named very high but you never see Beliveau.

Howe dominated his peers more than Beliveau did in his best goalscoring years.

Howe 52/53 - GPG 0.70

0.46
0.43
0.42
0.40

Howe 51/52 - GPG 0.67

0.56 (Richard 45 games)
0.45
0.44
0.43


Beliveau - 55/56 - GPG 0.67

0.54
0.53
0.53
0.49

Beliveau 58/59 - GPG 0.70

0.59
0.57
0.48
0.48

He was on another level, maybe not significantly but he should be on another level.

 

[daver]

Why so many pages talking about a method that is generally discredited in the HOH?

If Bobby Hull is clearly placed among the GOATs (and he should be), it's not a stretch to view Howe's similar dominance a decade prior (and his goalscoring title at age 34) in the same lens.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Not sure how you put the guy with the most goals in total who also holds the top two most goals in a season record 5th.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Why so many pages talking about a method that is generally discredited in the HOH?

Because it isn't discredited.

It's just slandered by certain posters because adjusted stats don't work in the favor of their favorite players.

Adjusting for scoring environment is perfectly reasonable, no matter how many times people stomp their feet (without making a coherent point).

This is exactly why Lemieux is the best goal scorer of all-time but Ovechkin is the greatest.

If Lemieux were the best goal scorer of all time, he'd at the very least have the highest raw season total or the highest adjusted season total of his own era.

Lemieux has neither.

 

[Midnight Judges]

This is exactly the issue. hockey-reference.com adjusts goals (assists, points, etc) but it doesn't adjust games played. Therefore any calculation using adjusted goals and actual games played will be inaccurate.

That is easily corrected for.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Hockey Ref has mathematical errors. We just discovered a new one in this thread. If the formula structurally dismisses a 40 year period because of the error, then yes it will be disregarded. There's a bit of value post 1990, but it's a complete mess pre 1970 for structural reasons.

The only ones still supporting it have ulterior motives or are new.

 

[Michael Farkas]

It's just slandered by certain posters because adjusted stats don't work in the favor of their favorite players.

Or in this case...