How good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

[TheBig08]

How good of a goal scorer is Gordie Howe?

I am asking because everybody says he's one of the best ever. Yes he has 801 goals and is 3rd all time but it took him playing 1,767 games to get there.

Just a question no disrespect to him, he's in my top 10 goal scorers all time.

Click to read more...

 

[Midnight Judges]

Top 10 for sure IMO. He's got a decent case for top 5. You could make a case for him over Lemieux, Bossy, or Richard.

Gordie Howe gets disrespected for two main reasons:

1) He played largely in a low scoring era and ratios are apparently beyond the capability of the average hockey fan (and the hockey media).

2) He played before most of us were born and so even nostalgia doesn't benefit him very much at this point.

His record is pretty unassailable IMO. 801 goals (3rd all time). 925 adjusted goals (2nd all time). Led the NHL in goals 5 times.

Had a 17% lead of the rest of the NHL in goals after 15 years and a 47% lead on #3.

 

[TheBig08]

Top 10 for sure IMO. He's got a decent case for top 5. You could make a case for him over Lemieux, Bossy, or Richard.

Gordie Howe gets disrespected for two main reasons:

1) He played largely in a low scoring era and ratios are apparently beyond the capability of the average hockey fan (and the hockey media).

2) He played before most of us were born and so even nostalgia doesn't benefit him very much at this point.

His record is pretty unassailable IMO. 801 goals (3rd all time). 925 adjusted goals (2nd all time). Led the NHL in goals 5 times.

Had a 17% lead of the rest of the NHL in goals after 15 years and a 47% lead on #3.

Me personally I think Alex ovechkin is the best goal scorer of all time and my top 10 in order are

1. Alex Ovechkin
2. Mario Lemuiex
3. Mike Bossy
4. Pavel Bure
5. Wayne Gretzky
6. Bobby Hull
7. Brett Hull
8. Maurice Richard
9. Gordie Howe
10. Auston Matthews

My reason for my choices are stats that I found and Matthew’s is in there because I feel like he will make the top 10 I just don’t know where so he’s #10.

What do you think about my top 10?

Who do you think is the best and what is your top 10 in order and your reasons why and if you have stats can you share them?

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think your list is fine, and defensible. It kinda comes down to if you prefer per-game stats or total career contributions. I lean more towards the latter than most. Ovechkin really is #1 either way.

Here's a bunch of data:

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 7/31/23	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	822	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	2	5	11	1	22	7	18	3	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	924	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	2	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 7/31/2023	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
Adjusted GPG (first 15 seasons)***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
First 15 seasons	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I guess I'd take issue with Bossy over Gretzky.

Gretzky soundly beat Bossy in goal scoring as their careers overlapped (from '79 to '87) - more goals (543 to 451), more goals per game (.86 to .75), much higher single season goal totals (92 vs 69), more times led the NHL in goals (5 to 2).

In the playoffs during this span their GPGs were nearly identical (.68 for Gretzky vs .69 for Bossy). So that's basically a wash.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Howe's top-10 goal-scoring finishes are 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8

For comparison, Bobby Hull had 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7 before he went to the WHA

Gretzky had 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6

Bossy had 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 7

In my mind the top-4 are Lemieux, Hull, Ovechkin, and Howe, with Lemieux being the clear per-game leader. The fifth spot could be any of Richard, Bossy, Gretzky, and maybe Esposito.

 

[TheBig08]

I think your list is fine, and defensible. It kinda comes down to if you prefer per-game stats or total career contributions. I lean more towards the latter than most. Ovechkin really is #1 either way.

Here's a bunch of data:

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 7/31/23	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	822	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	2	5	11	1	22	7	18	3	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	924	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	2	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 7/31/2023	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG (first 15 seasons)	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
Adjusted GPG (first 15 seasons)***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
First 15 seasons	Ovi*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

Who do you think is the best and what is your top 10 in order and your reasons why and if your reasons includes stats share them?

Im assuming your ovi fan, I am too, hope he gets a 1000 and has a good season.

 

[TheBig08]

I guess I'd take issue with Bossy over Gretzky.

Gretzky soundly beat Bossy in goal scoring as their careers overlapped (from '79 to '87) - more goals (543 to 451), more goals per game (.86 to .75), much higher single season goal totals (92 vs 69), more times led the NHL in goals (5 to 2).

In the playoffs during this span their GPGs were nearly identical (.68 for Gretzky vs .69 for Bossy). So that's basically a wash.

Yes Gretzky beat bossy head on but if bossy didn't get injured and keep playing he probably would have a more longevity than Gretzky and would have passed him in goals. "I guess I'd take issue with Bossy over Gretzky" are you saying thats the only thing you would change just a question.

 

[Midnight Judges]

In my mind the top-4 are Lemieux, Hull, Ovechkin, and Howe, with Lemieux being the clear per-game leader. The fifth spot could be any of Richard, Bossy, Gretzky, and maybe Esposito.

Lemieux isn't the clear per-game leader though.

Ovechkin had a higher adjusted GPG than Lemieux (.685 to .673), and he sustained through hundreds more games (1347 games vs 915 for Lemieux).

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Lemieux isn't the clear per-game leader though.

Ovechkin had a higher adjusted GPG than Lemieux (.685 to .673), and he sustained through hundreds more games (1347 games vs 915 for Lemieux).

I feel like this is not accurate. I did a comparison of the best consecutive 10-year stretches between the best goal scorers in history a while back, the HF conversion wiped the tables I made but I do have a screenshot of the results:

This was before Ovechkin won a couple more rockets but I don't think that meaningfully increased his GPG.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I feel like this is not accurate. I did a comparison of the best consecutive 10-year stretches between the best goal scorers in history a while back, the HF conversion wiped the tables I made but I do have a screenshot of the results:

View attachment 914664

This was before Ovechkin won a couple more rockets but I don't think that meaningfully increased his GPG.

My numbers are correct.

Lemieux has 616 adjusted goals in 915 games. That's .673 adjusted GPG.

Mario Lemieux Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Mario Lemieux. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Ovechkin had 924 adjusted goals in 1347 games. That's .686 adjusted GPG.

Alex Ovechkin Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Alex Ovechkin. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

I suspect your numbers are correct as well, but I haven't actually checked them.

I just don't know why a 593 game sample (which is like 40% of a career) would be prioritized over a 1347 game sample (which is closer to a complete career).

 

[Cursed Lemon]

My numbers are correct.

Lemieux has 616 adjusted goals in 915 games. That's .673 adjusted GPG.

Mario Lemieux Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Mario Lemieux. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Ovechkin had 924 adjusted goals in 1347 games. That's .686 adjusted GPG.

Alex Ovechkin Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Alex Ovechkin. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

I suspect your numbers are correct as well, but I haven't actually checked them.

I just don't know why a 593 game sample (which is like 40% of a career) would be prioritized over a 1347 game sample (which is closer to a complete career).

I suppose the coming-out-of-retirement years really did a number on Lemieux's GPG in that case. As for the emphasis on that number of games, it was mostly done to encapsulate a player's prime years, but obviously Ovechkin's goal scoring has persisted way far out from the norm.

 

[VanIslander]

Of his 20 consecutive years of top-5 scoring in points, 12 of them were top 3 in goals (12 seasons of Hart trophy finalist nods - in case anyone thought he might have rode coat tails).

9 & 99 were a cut above.

 

[Albatros]

Howe's top-10 goal-scoring finishes are 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8

Though it must be said that he mostly played in a league with 18 top-line forwards.

 

[MadLuke]

First Rocket in 1951, last one in 1963, that Ovechkin level of elite goalscoring longevity (both have Rocket win 12 years appart like that).

During is 22-28 peak, with 4 time leading the league in goals

GPG 48-54
Howe...: .52
Richard: .52

49-55
Howe....: .55
Richard.: .52
Beliveau: .47

50-56
Howe.....: .57
Richard..: .55
Beliveau.: .54

51-57
Howe.....: .58 (that the 4 first Rocket window)
Richard..: .54
Beliveau.: .53

52-58
Howe....: .57
Beliveau: .52
Richard.: .52

53-59
Beliveau: .55
Howe....: .54
Richard.: .50

54-60
Beliveau.: .55
Geoffrion: .51
Richard..: .50
Howe.....: .50

55-61:
Beliveau.: .56
Geoffrion: .55
Richard..: .50
Howe.....: .48

56-62:
Beliveau.: .55
Geoffrion: .52
Howe.....: .48
Richard..: .48

57-63 (63 his the last Rocket)
Geoffrion: .51
Howe.....: .48
Beliveau.: .48

During that stretch, playoff gpg
Richard..: .52
Beliveau.: .50
Geoffrion: .46
Howe.....: .43
Lindsay..: .39


Going only by result here, seem a clear top 3 goalscorer of his era, with post peak post 25 years Richard and Beliveau, how you rank them in what order is not that obvious, Howe do peak a little bit higher in the regular season, less so in the playoff but that can become playing for or against the Habs situation, considering the league and how frequent the match up would be.

 

[seventieslord]

I feel like this is not accurate. I did a comparison of the best consecutive 10-year stretches between the best goal scorers in history a while back, the HF conversion wiped the tables I made but I do have a screenshot of the results:

View attachment 914664

This was before Ovechkin won a couple more rockets but I don't think that meaningfully increased his GPG.

Is that adjusted goals per adjusted game? This would greatly affect anybody who played in a season that was not 80 to 82 games.

Hockey reference adjusts goals in 48-game seasons as though they are 82 game seasons. But there's no adjusted games played stats, so that allows lockout seasons to juice up there per game totals.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Is that adjusted goals per adjusted game? This would greatly affect anybody who played in a season that was not 80 to 82 games.

Hockey reference adjusts goals in 48-game seasons as though they are 82 game seasons. But there's no adjusted games played stats, so that allows lockout seasons to juice up there per game totals.

Goal totals from 70 game seasons are adjusted up to goal totals for an 82 game season under the hockey reference formula.

 

[seventieslord]

...This affects mostly all the guys who played in 1994-95, as generally they are given full credit for goals that they likely would've scored in an 82 game season, but when adding up career goals you're only adding up their true GP for their adjusted goals to be divided by. They generally need 34 more games added to their GP total when calculating.

But it also affects Ovechkin, who by my rough math, has adjusted totals for 2013, 2020 and 2021 that assume he played 65 more games than he actually did. This affects the calculation quite a bit. His adjusted goals per actual game is .669 right now, but his adjusted goals per adjusted game is .640.

Goal totals from 70 game seasons are adjusted up to goal totals for an 82 game season under the hockey reference formula.

Yes, and anyone calculating career adjusted goals per game needs to also add those games into the calculation as well. They're only directly transferable (approximately, at least) for players who played exclusively in the 80 to 82 game era, otherwise, not accounting for this is just extremely lazy math.

 

[seventieslord]

... Among players with a substantial sample size to draw from, one might think Nels Stewart and Howie Morenz, with their 0.90 and 0.91 adjusted goals per game, are the greatest assisted goal scorers of all-time. But that's adjusted goals per actual game, not adjusted goals per adjusted game.

They are two perfect examples of what I'm saying, because they scored a ton of goals for their era, and the gap between their true games played and their adjusted games played is very substantial which greatly juices their career average beyond what is merited.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Is that adjusted goals per adjusted game? This would greatly affect anybody who played in a season that was not 80 to 82 games.

Hockey reference adjusts goals in 48-game seasons as though they are 82 game seasons. But there's no adjusted games played stats, so that allows lockout seasons to juice up there per game totals.

In that exercise the focus was on goals-per-game average rather than total adjusted goals.

 

[VanIslander]

Though it must be said that he mostly played in a league with 18 top-line forwards.

In clearly the world's top league with a very talented then AHL and developing Soviet and Czechoslovakian leagues.

Judge players by their era. We have no time machine. The closest to it are counterfactual what-if scenarios pondered, like in ATDs.