How far away are the Kings from contention?

[Chruceg]

I've been reading a lot of back and forth on the board about whether or not the Kings should blow it up, trade significant pieces, or hold the course. I thought it would be a good idea to get a grasp of how far away the Kings are from contention.

I am going to be looking at Goals For (GF), Goals Agains (GA), and Goal Differential (GD) for the purposes of this analysis and hopefully propose solutions.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD][/TD]
[TD]Lead GF[/TD][TD]Kings GF[/TD][TD]Lead GA[/TD][TD]Kings GA[/TD][TD]Lead GD[/TD][TD]Kings GD[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]17-18[/TD][TD]290[/TD][TD]237[/TD][TD]202[/TD][TD]202[/TD][TD]60[/TD][TD]36[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]16-17[/TD][TD]278[/TD][TD]199[/TD][TD]177[/TD][TD]201[/TD][TD]81[/TD][TD]-2[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]15-16[/TD][TD]265[/TD][TD]223[/TD][TD]188[/TD][TD]192[/TD][TD]59[/TD][TD]31[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]14-15[/TD][TD]259[/TD][TD]218[/TD][TD]184[/TD][TD]197[/TD][TD]60[/TD][TD]21[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]13-14[/TD][TD]263[/TD][TD]198[/TD][TD]168[/TD][TD]168(!)[/TD][TD]84[/TD][TD]30[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

I think there are two telling pieces of information here. First, scoring is slightly increasing. Second, despite the increase in scoring the lead GD is fairly consistent. Now, let's look where the goals on the Kings came from. The first two columns are what they did the past two years while the final column is my conservative prediction. I have omitted anyone who played in 16-17 but not 17-18 because I don't expect any of those guys back.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD][/TD]
[TD]16-17[/TD][TD]17-18[/TD][TD]Exp[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kopitar[/TD][TD]12[/TD][TD]35[/TD][TD]30[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Brown[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]28[/TD][TD]23[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Toffoli[/TD][TD]16[/TD][TD]24[/TD][TD]24[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kempe[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]16[/TD][TD]20[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Pearson[/TD][TD]24[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]15[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Lewis[/TD][TD]12[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Carter[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]13[/TD][TD]25[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Doughty[/TD][TD]12[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Iafallo[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]15[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Martinez[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]8[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Muzzin[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]8[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Gaborik[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Clifford[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]5[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Mitchell[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rieder[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]15[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Brodzinski[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Amadio[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Shore[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Ladue[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]5(?)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Cammallari[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Andreoff[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Phaneuf[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]10[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Folin[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]3[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Fantenberg[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Macdermid[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Thompson[/TD][TD]0[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Forbort[/TD][TD]2[/TD][TD]1[/TD][TD]1[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Total[/TD][TD]199[/TD][TD]237[/TD][TD]247[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

I feel like I was fairly conservative with everybody. If anybody thinks my predictions are overzealous let me know and I will adjust. Now I fully admit that this lineup is 100% healthy and that is not going to happen. So let's take off 10% to account for injuries ... that puts the Kings at 222 GF with their current lineup. My feeling on the situation is that in order for the Kings to be truly competitive they need roughly another 30 goals per year without sacrificing defense. If they score 252 goals and give up only 202 that would be a GD of 50. That would put the Kings in the top 5 any of the past five years.

But how realistic is it that the Kings can get another 30 goals out of their lineup without sacrificing defense? Particularly when you consider likely regressions from Kopitar and Brown.

I've listed 14 forwards above and have excluded Vilardi. If he comes in and scores 10 goals that is already a third of the way there. I personally don't think that is too optimistic. Is it possible for Blake to find another forward that can score an additional 20 goals? I think it is. I also think it is plausible that LaDue or Brickley make a serious case to be in the line up. If that happens then either Martinez or Muzzin are available to be moved for a forward. And let's keep in mind that the Kings don't need to be scoring at 3.1 goals per game all season ... just the end of the season. Which gives them time to see if LaDue or Brickley are up to the task. If they can have a healthy line up come playoff time, have Vilardi demonstrate real skill, and bring in another 20 goal scorer then this team is extremely close to contention.

If you disagree, where did I miss in my analysis? Are my expectations for some players too high? Are some too low? I realize this post will be contentious but I am interested in seeing other people's thoughts when you look at the numbers.

Click to read more...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I like the analysis. And I think the expectations are fair.

I think the problem as we saw in the playoffs is that we kind of lack a super explosive offense so if we can't get a bounce or two to get a lead, we don't get a chance to play to our strength which is defense. In short, we're selling out too hard on the d-side to have such a mediocre offense. Which is frustrating because it was the complete opposite of what we saw near the beginning of the year with guys trying puck-centering passes and some more creative plays. Comes down to the Stevens lack-of-system in that case imo, no identity hurts.

Then again, look at the way the WCF teams are playing now--they can play lockdown defense but they're not afraid to trade a few chances, they're adaptable. I'm not so sure this version of the Kings can do that, at least with this system. There were periods in the Vegas series where we were flat out dominant--period 1 of Game 4, for example, good lord, what a glimpse of the 2012 Kings--but they just can't consistently rise.

I think the right parts are there to be competitive, but certainly not a favorite, but it requires better coaching, a lot to go right, and much fewer injuries, which is why I think we're still a bubble team.

I don't think many people really disagree with that nor will they disagreee with your analysis necessarily, I think it's a fair criticism to point out other, younger teams are rising while the Kings have likely peaked unless the auxillary parts can start working some magic (Pearson, Toffoli were relatively disappointing, and even if we expect big seasons from Kempe and Vilardi, everyone needs to pull their weight).

 

[SettlementRichie10]

They need a #3 Center, #1 LW, and a top 4 D.

So yeah, pretty far away.

 

[lumbergh]

They need a #3 Center, #1 LW, and a top 4 D.

So yeah, pretty far away.

Do you need more than 4 top 4 D?

 

[SlimCharles]

We don't need another D.

A winger who is capable of scoring 25-30 goals needs to be the Kings' main priority

 

[lumbergh]

I agree that the Kings could use a #1 LW and #3 Center, but maybe Vilardi and Amadio fill those roles next year. The Kings have most of the pieces they need to contend already.

To me, what's more important is that the Kings still need to speed their game up in all three zones. The Golden Knights exposed a big deficiency in the Kings' game this year. You can't play possession hockey if you can't get the puck into the offensive zone with possession. Until they move the puck faster, personnel changes aren't gonna get them over the hump.

 

[damacles1156]

It's not the system, it's the players.

I was worried a style change was going to need a complete draft overhaul of the roster. The players make the system, not the other way around.

The Kings are now stuck in an identity crisis like the Canucks of 2012-16 after getting bludgeoned by the Kings.

Not having a stable third line Center since Stoll is really causing havoc in the lineup. Voynov left a huge void I think still is not replaced.

Need a solid stable 3C, 3-4 Defender like Voynov, and a top six winger that can pace with Kopitar.

 

[Chruceg]

They need a #3 Center, #1 LW, and a top 4 D.

So yeah, pretty far away.

I think you are overstating the issue a bit. If you look at the numbers I posted above the Kings need 30 goals to be competitive. What do you expect from you 1LW? A reasonable 3C scores about 16 goals ... which is exactly what Kempe scored. What are your expectations there? ... not trying to be rude ... trying to understand

 

[Chruceg]

To me, what's more important is that the Kings still need to speed their game up in all three zones. The Golden Knights exposed a big deficiency in the Kings' game this year. You can't play possession hockey if you can't get the puck into the offensive zone with possession. Until they move the puck faster, personnel changes aren't gonna get them over the hump.

I respectfully disagree with this notion. I agree that Vegas is playing a style that is difficult to heat right now ... hell they are beating a much more talented Jets team in the WCF. With that said I am reluctant to believe that their team model is sustainable. Further, I don't think we should be throwing out 80 years of team building strategy until Vegas is able to demonstrate a modicum of sustained success.

I genuinely believe that this team is able to contend with only a minor adjustment. A fully healthy Kings team is viable.

 

[Kingspiracy]

We need more offense. Whether thats a dman that can cart it up the ice better, a 1lw that can score the odd goal or a 2nd line that doesnt disappear, we need more offense.

 

[KINGS17]

 

[Darren]

I agree with the identity crisis comment. We were playing great hockey. Keep in mind that the Golden Knights are still in it, and we kept all those games tight. 2 years ago we got beat by the Sharks and they went to the finals. Looking at your analytics and factoring Carter long term injury, if we get a healthy team that raises up to their potential, we are still very dangerous. I keep hearing that we need speed (and to a point we do), I think what we need more is creativity. The Kings play a very predictive game, which works a lot of the time, however, come playoffs especially, we need to be fast, play hard, and come up with the greasy goals. We are not going to win playoffs being predictable.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

The Kings currently need 3 or more players to overachieve or have career years this coming season to contend....that, as well as get a legit 30 goal scoring LW somehow.
If Pearson cannot score 20 goals and Toffoli 30, not a lot of hope. Having one of the 1-5 lowest goals allowed teams is pointless, if you score in the bottom 10.
IF Vilardi could step in and have a Herculean rookie year, like 50+ points, that would go a long way. It's not impossible and surely not expected...but your question was 'what do the Kings need to
do to contend" and this is 'a type of thing they need'...something BIG and unexpected.

 

[KingsHockey24]

You think Brodzinski will score 10 goals next year? The guy has 8 career points.

He's simply not an NHL'er.

 

[Sol]

While Fortbort did better around the time he got injured, I think the Kings need a two way defenseman in their top 4 rather than a one dimensional stay at home D.


Really tired of this archetype.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I think you are overstating the issue a bit. If you look at the numbers I posted above the Kings need 30 goals to be competitive. What do you expect from you 1LW? A reasonable 3C scores about 16 goals ... which is exactly what Kempe scored. What are your expectations there? ... not trying to be rude ... trying to understand

I said the exact same thing as Damacles. You liked his post and refuted mine. Why?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

While Fortbort did better around the time he got injured, I think the Kings need a two way defenseman in their top 4 rather than a one dimensional stay at home D.


Really tired of this archetype.

NOt saying I disagree necessarily but it's not easy to find an all-situations top-4 d-man. Most guys are specialists in one way or another. We're actually pretty lucky to have Muzzin and Martinez behind Doughty frankly.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

You think Brodzinski will score 10 goals next year? The guy has 8 career points.

He's simply not an NHL'er.

The funny / sad part is, if Brodzinski went to Vegas, they would plug him in on the third line and he would score 15 goals (or more) I hope he can do that here.

 

[AlphaBravo]

Frankly, the one thing I have learned the past 3-4 years in the cap era world is that you cannot predict at all which team will have a stellar season. You can probably predict with good odds some of the basement dwellers or some of the elite teams, but every season there are several bubble teams that catch fire and do amazing. However, if I had to predict, I think Vegas is going to be like Ottawa next year. Last year, Ottawa got hot and did well in the playoffs, but the next year they tanked. Vegas, like Ottawa, is having a few players performing well beyond their career averages and all expectations. I find it hard to believe that they will sustain this level of play for another season. They basically caught lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if they tank or do not make the playoffs next year.

I say the above to point out that you never know if the Kings will be contenders or not. I think we have the roster to be Stanley Cup contenders, but the players on the roster have to play to their full capacity for us to have a shot of going far in the playoffs (let alone with the cup). Guys like Pearson and Toffoli cannot have down years. Kopitar, Brown and Carter need to perform at or near their career bests. If we sustain long term injuries and a couple of players have off years, we could likely be in the bottom of the standings next year. In short, its impossible to predict.

 

[Chruceg]

You think Brodzinski will score 10 goals next year? The guy has 8 career points.

He's simply not an NHL'er.

Brodzinski played 35 games this past season and scored 4 goals. If he plays 82 games that prorates out to 9.37 goals over the whole year. I assumed a small amount of development. Is that unreasonable?

 

[Chruceg]

I said the exact same thing as Damacles. You liked his post and refuted mine. Why?

I liked damacles post because it was well thought with no fewer than four arguments. Your post simply stated needs. I also try to avoid repeating myself. I do admit I should have multi quoted to include his post with my response.

With that said, thoughts on my response? Any reason why Kempe can't fill the 3C role?

 

[Chruceg]

I see your point and understand your concern. But I disagree that the Kings are that far away. My analysis shows that that in order to be top 5 in the league the Kings need roughly 30 more goals. If they get that they are by definition an elite team in terms of goal differential. With an additional 30 goals this season the Kings would have led in goal differential. And in case I wasn't clear in my first post goal differential is one of the best indicators of team success. With my conservative estimate for next season's numbers another 30 goals should put us in the top 5. How is that not a legit cup contender?

 

[Chruceg]

The Kings currently need 3 or more players to overachieve or have career years this coming season to contend....that, as well as get a legit 30 goal scoring LW somehow.
If Pearson cannot score 20 goals and Toffoli 30, not a lot of hope. Having one of the 1-5 lowest goals allowed teams is pointless, if you score in the bottom 10.
IF Vilardi could step in and have a Herculean rookie year, like 50+ points, that would go a long way. It's not impossible and surely not expected...but your question was 'what do the Kings need to
do to contend" and this is 'a type of thing they need'...something BIG and unexpected.

I completely disagree. The key to being successful in the NHL is scoring more goals than the other team. It doesn't matter if you win 1-0 or 5-4. The numbers I posted above are conservative for everybody. And with those conservative numbers all they need is an additional 30 goals. After you account for Vilardi it looks more like only 20. That is one above average second liner. That is hardly big or unexpected.

My sincere hope is that the Kings see serious competition from Ladue, Brickley, and now that he has signed Fantenberg. That should help make either Muzzin or Martinez expendable. Which can be traded for the winger. I try to avoid getting my hopes up about Free Agency because no one ever signs here.

 

[kingsholygrail]

In the cap era? Far away.

 

[Chruceg]

Frankly, the one thing I have learned the past 3-4 years in the cap era world is that you cannot predict at all which team will have a stellar season. You can probably predict with good odds some of the basement dwellers or some of the elite teams, but every season there are several bubble teams that catch fire and do amazing. However, if I had to predict, I think Vegas is going to be like Ottawa next year. Last year, Ottawa got hot and did well in the playoffs, but the next year they tanked. Vegas, like Ottawa, is having a few players performing well beyond their career averages and all expectations. I find it hard to believe that they will sustain this level of play for another season. They basically caught lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if they tank or do not make the playoffs next year.

I say the above to point out that you never know if the Kings will be contenders or not. I think we have the roster to be Stanley Cup contenders, but the players on the roster have to play to their full capacity for us to have a shot of going far in the playoffs (let alone with the cup). Guys like Pearson and Toffoli cannot have down years. Kopitar, Brown and Carter need to perform at or near their career bests. If we sustain long term injuries and a couple of players have off years, we could likely be in the bottom of the standings next year. In short, its impossible to predict.

I largely agree with your first paragraph. Predicting the future is difficult if not impossible. With that said I think Blake needs to look at the math and try and put the Kings in the best position to succeed. Finding another 20 goal scorer should be the priority to put the Kings in the best possible position to succeed.

As for your second paragraph I disagree with the point that the Kings need near career years from everybody. My numbers above are below career highs for everybody except Toffoli who is at his three year average. I really think the Kings offensive talent is severally underrated.