How does our rebuild compare to others?

[PlayOn]

Since it’s a topic of conversation that frequently pops up and there seemed to be interest in a thread on it, here is a place to discuss.

All Habs talk allowed here!

Posting the messages from the other thread:

That would be an interesting thread. I feel that our own window of... maybe not contention necessarily but making it to the playoffs and hoping for more is NOW and the next couple of years. Staios bringing in Jensen and Perron gave this team this year and next, and then the Ullmark signing, the Cozens and Zetterlund deals may have extended and strengthened the window by another couple of years, which was unthinkable to me just a couple of months ago.

So our rebuild is complete: our core is in their prime or about to get there, all the big pieces are signed till 2027-28 (with the smaller pieces Zub, Amadio and Batherson FAs a year earlier), and there's just nobody on the prospect horizon other than Yak. In our Conference we need to take advantage of the decline of Boston and Pittsburgh, while Detroit and Montreal are on their way up. I think Detroit is going to be dangerous first, and Montreal a year or two behind but possibly with a higher ceiling. But by the time Montreal arrives it will be time for another rebuild for us, so maybe it doesn't matter to us how good they might become.

Yeah our window of contention is going to be miniscule.

Another Dorion legacy!

Yes, its (rebuilds, and how ours compares to others) an interesting topic. The other thing of importance is the Brady factor.

 

[Cosmix]

A good starting point for this thread would be a summary of what "others" have done in the past. I think it usually starts with getting high draft picks, getting lucky in the draft, and getting elite players in the draft. I doubt that rebuilds are successful when done via trades.

 

[2CHAINZ]

When we win, the rebuild is awesome; when we lose, we need to blow it up and start over.

That's what this board has taught me.

 

[PlayOn]

That would be an interesting thread. I feel that our own window of... maybe not contention necessarily but making it to the playoffs and hoping for more is NOW and the next couple of years. Staios bringing in Jensen and Perron gave this team this year and next, and then the Ullmark signing, the Cozens and Zetterlund deals may have extended and strengthened the window by another couple of years, which was unthinkable to me just a couple of months ago.

So our rebuild is complete: our core is in their prime or about to get there, all the big pieces are signed till 2027-28 (with the smaller pieces Zub, Amadio and Batherson FAs a year earlier), and there's just nobody on the prospect horizon other than Yak. In our Conference we need to take advantage of the decline of Boston and Pittsburgh, while Detroit and Montreal are on their way up. I think Detroit is going to be dangerous first, and Montreal a year or two behind but possibly with a higher ceiling. But by the time Montreal arrives it will be time for another rebuild for us, so maybe it doesn't matter to us how good they might become.

I think I am a little more optimistic on this.

I think our window centers around Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stützle. So I am going to assume that our peak will happen when all are still in their primes and use the cutoff as Tkachuk being ~32.

So largely I think we probably have about six years starting next year IF we can keep Brady here past his contract. If not, that would change things.

Look at Colorado. They lost Kadri, Landeskog (might return), Byram, Rantanen and more, but they still have MacKinnon, Makar and Nichushkin and so they were able to restructure their team around them to build a new contender. I don’t think they are as strong as the first iteration, but if the Avs won this year I don’t think anyone would be stunned.

I basically think you have 2-3 players that are irreplaceable on a roster. You can keep tweaking around them if they are good enough. That is the other question here. But we also have a lot of other young pieces that will likely be around a long time.

 

[swiftwin]

I think I am a little more optimistic on this.

I think our window centers around Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stützle. So I am going to assume that our peak will happen when all are still in their primes and use the cutoff as Tkachuk being ~32.

So largely I think we probably have about six years starting next year IF we can keep Brady here past his contract. If not, that would change things.

Look at Colorado. They lost Kadri, Landeskog (might return), Byram, Rantanen and more, but they still have MacKinnon, Makar and Nichushkin and so they were able to restructure their team around them to build a new contender. I don’t think they are as strong as the first iteration, but if the Avs won this year I don’t think anyone would be stunned.

I basically think you have 2-3 players that are irreplaceable on a roster. You can keep tweaking around them if they are good enough. That is the other question here. But we also have a lot of other young pieces that will likely be around a long time.

Exactly this. And we are incredibly fortunate that Dorion was able to lock those three core pieces down for 7-8 years at reasonable prices. That gives Staios a ton of room to tweak and add depth to the team, especially as the league cap is starting to skyrocket. I've said years ago that 2024-2028 was going to be a good window based off this. Nice to see it come true.

We have a very clear window opening up right now for at least for the next 4 playoffs, since we have to major contracts expiring except for Pinto. After that, we might need to tweak based on Brady and Chabot expiring.

 

[PlayOn]

My personal opinion on the other rebuilds:

Detroit - no franchise C, otherwise well rounded. I think they might lack the superstars to win.

Montreal - very talented. They remind me a little of the Leafs though, I am not sure they will be built for the playoffs. They have more to work with on the defensive side than Toronto did though.

Buffalo - if ownership ever figures it out they could be dangerous. Again lacking a true franchise C.

CBJ - in the East I think I kind of like them the most if Fantilli is a true 1C. So much offensive talent, then Werenski and Mateychuk manning their defense.

NJ - I like them too. Hughes’ shoulder might be a problem though.

 

[Big Muddy]

One thing I’ve thought about was how long a rebuild should take. I mean, how do you evaluate whether it's a successful rebuild if there’s no timeline metric to compare with?

I’ve always thought it was 5 years from the start of a rebuild to making the playoffs. But, I’m not sure where I got that idea. But do know it's been mentioned somewhere (not sure what sport though).

But, more recently, I’ve begun to think that maybe its a bit longer than 5 years, like maybe 7 years. In summary, I don’t really know. I can’t fathom anything over 7 years being good, but maybe that’s just me (my idea).

The other topic is what are the other criteria for measuring success. A team could make the playoffs in lets say year 4 or 5, and then miss the playoffs the next year(s). Is that success? Hmmm …… who knows?

The other element is that Brady’s NTC will kick in. If the timer hadn’t elapsed already, another (the 2nd?) timer will start when BT’s NTC kicks in. That will be a “window”, or “another window” at that point.

 

[DrEasy]

I think I am a little more optimistic on this.

I think our window centers around Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stützle. So I am going to assume that our peak will happen when all are still in their primes and use the cutoff as Tkachuk being ~32.

So largely I think we probably have about six years starting next year IF we can keep Brady here past his contract. If not, that would change things.

Look at Colorado. They lost Kadri, Landeskog (might return), Byram, Rantanen and more, but they still have MacKinnon, Makar and Nichushkin and so they were able to restructure their team around them to build a new contender. I don’t think they are as strong as the first iteration, but if the Avs won this year I don’t think anyone would be stunned.

I basically think you have 2-3 players that are irreplaceable on a roster. You can keep tweaking around them if they are good enough. That is the other question here. But we also have a lot of other young pieces that will likely be around a long time.

edit: PLEASE IGNORE THIS POST; IT IS BASED ON MISREADING PUCKPEDIA. BUT I BLAME FOREIGN AGENTS.

The thing is that ALL OF Stu, Brady, Sanderson, Cozens, Chabot and Ullmark are, as of today, to be UFAs at the end of the 2027-28 season. And Batherson, Zub gone the year before. And no help from the prospect pool. OK, maaaybe Pinto, Greig, Zetterlund can be internal promotion for some of them in the future, but who's going to replace *them*? Re-signing or extending the core listed above is going to cost a lot of money; we can't fit all of them under whatever the cap will be (official or internal). See for yourself:

https://puckpedia.com/team/ottawa-senators

Maaaaybe Staios can pull off a few more Norris-Cozens type deals, where he can gradually replace some of the core with a younger and cheaper yet just as good piece (because the assumption is that we'll be in the playoff race every year, so we can't be just selling players for picks). So maybe Batherson goes first, Chabot goes next, Ullmark next (Merilainen being for real would be crucial). That would make room under the cap to extend one of Sanderson or Stutzle or Brady or Cozens. But this is easier said than done.

OR, we just keep this core together, replace Batherson and Zub internally when they're gone, use their cap to sign some short-term UFAs to keep the window going one more year, and then:

- either in 2027 we're still in contention and at the end of that season we can try to re-sign some of the core,
- or for whatever reason we suck, and trade all of the soon-to-be UFAs core at the deadline.

In both cases in 2028 we look like we're at the bitter end of the window. And some lean years would be expected. Hopefully in the meantime we'll have some fun with what we have!

 

[Norris4Norris]

We are making the playoffs this year, obviously, which is fantastic.

I think that we will grow and become a top 3 team in the east within 2 years.

On paper we have everything we need to eventually contend for the cup. We have a top 5 defenseman in Sanderson and a really respectable defense overall. Chabot is +13 on the season and has become very dependable. Yakemchuk looked like a beast in the preseason games he played.

Ullmark is playing like the Vezina winner he was a couple of year ago. Forsberg has shown he is dependable as a back up as long as he isn't given too much of the workload. Merilainen looks to be the next starter and is mentally a veteran already, really composed in the net.

That Cozens trade pushed the Sens forward towards a more well rounded core. We have a solid top six and our top 9 with Pinto and Greig makes this forward group deep and well structured for success.

We have youth, an amazingly competitive captain and quite a competent management group for the first time in ages.

Time will tell, but I really like this rebuild. I think we did it the right way and have a group that is young and deep enough to grow into something special.

 

[PlayOn]

The thing is that ALL OF Stu, Brady, Sanderson, Cozens, Chabot and Ullmark are, as of today, to be UFAs at the end of the 2027-28 season. And Batherson, Zub gone the year before. And no help from the prospect pool. OK, maaaybe Pinto, Greig, Zetterlund can be internal promotion for some of them in the future, but who's going to replace *them*? Re-signing or extending the core listed above is going to cost a lot of money; we can't fit all of them under whatever the cap will be (official or internal). See for yourself:

https://puckpedia.com/team/ottawa-senators

Maaaaybe Staios can pull off a few more Norris-Cozens type deals, where he can gradually replace some of the core with a younger and cheaper yet just as good piece (because the assumption is that we'll be in the playoff race every year, so we can't be just selling players for picks). So maybe Batherson goes first, Chabot goes next, Ullmark next (Merilainen being for real would be crucial). That would make room under the cap to extend one of Sanderson or Stutzle or Brady or Cozens. But this is easier said than done.

OR, we just keep this core together, replace Batherson and Zub internally when they're gone, use their cap to sign some short-term UFAs to keep the window going one more year, and then:

- either in 2027 we're still in contention and at the end of that season we can try to re-sign some of the core,
- or for whatever reason we suck, and trade all of the soon-to-be UFAs core at the deadline.

In both cases in 2028 we look like we're at the bitter end of the window. And some lean years would be expected. Hopefully in the meantime we'll have some fun with what we have!

Puckpedia is just formatted weird, the column only goes up to 2028 but then in the last column where it shows each person as UFA it lists the year underneath. Cozens is signed til 2030, Timmy until 2031, Sanderson until 2032 etc.

To your point I think the big challenges come in 2027 and 2028, where Batherson, Zub, Tkachuk and Chabot all expire. I think you will only be able to keep 2/4, mayyybe 3/4.

But personally I would prioritize Tkachuk and Batherson in that list, and assume that Yak/Kleven will be ready for bigger roles by then, plus find another dman somehow.

 

[Big Muddy]

Exactly this. And we are incredibly fortunate that Dorion was able to lock those three core pieces down for 7-8 years at reasonable prices. That gives Staios a ton of room to tweak and add depth to the team, especially as the league cap is starting to skyrocket. I've said years ago that 2024-2028 was going to be a good window based off this. Nice to see it come true.

We have a very clear window opening up right now for at least for the next 4 playoffs, since we have to major contracts expiring except for Pinto. After that, we might need to tweak based on Brady and Chabot expiring.

The "incredibly" adjective intimates that it's something unique that no other or very few GMs would think of doing LOL.

 

[DrEasy]

Puckpedia is just formatted weird, the column only goes up to 2028 but then in the last column where it shows each person as UFA it lists the year underneath. Cozens is signed til 2030, Timmy until 2031, Sanderson until 2032 etc.

To your point I think the big challenges come in 2027 and 2028, where Batherson, Zub, Tkachuk and Chabot all expire. I think you will only be able to keep 2/4, mayyybe 3/4.

But personally I would prioritize Tkachuk and Batherson in that list, and assume that Yak/Kleven will be ready for bigger roles by then, plus find another dman somehow.

Wow, you're right, I totally misread Puckpedia!!!

Please ignore everything I said. Ever.

I agree in that case, extending Brady is the big mission then, if we want to keep the core together for a while.

 

[aragorn]

I don't think it's that bad when it comes to replacing our aging vets:
- we have Greig & Pinto to replace Giroux & Perron in the top six
- we will need some extra money to pay Batherson

Top six:
Tkachuk - Stutzle - Cozens
Greig - Pinto - Batherson

3rd line:
Zetterlund - Halliday - Amadio ... OR ...
Montgomery - Halliday - Zetterlund/Amadio

4th line:
Reinhardt - Jenik - MacEwan ... maybe

The Defence & Goaltending:
Sanderson - Yakemchuk
Chabot - Zub - ... Guennette maybe could replace Zub at some point
Kleven - Matinpalo/Gilbert

Ullmark - Merilainen - Merilainen replaces Forsberg

 

[MiscBrah]

Honestly, what are the successful rebuilds?

Edmonton was rebuilding forever before they got McDavid, but even after getting him they only had one playoff series win in his first 6 seasons. Obviously, they are a good team now, but it took a long time.

Buffalo rebuild never worked out. I guess they are still rebuilding.

Montreal had one good run based on Price (and during COVID), and other than that, have done nothing.

The Leafs were rebuilding for a long time and now keep getting bounced in the first round (1 playoff series win in 19 seasons). I guess they aren't rebuilding, but did the rebuild work out?

Feels like anytime a team tries to do a "rebuild" it never really works out. Then everyone forgets what the plan was, and at some point later they get good players and turn it around and then people say the rebuild was successful.

I think we need to re-classify rebuild as "wait until my team gets good players again and those players win in the playoffs".

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I feel like we probably need another first line forward, although IF-and this is a big IF, Cozens and Batherson can become 70ish point players from here on out, we definitely got something cooking.

 

[Big Muddy]

Honestly, what are the successful rebuilds?

Edmonton was rebuilding forever before they got McDavid, but even after getting him they only had one playoff series win in his first 6 seasons. Obviously, they are a good team now, but it took a long time.

Buffalo rebuild never worked out. I guess they are still rebuilding.

Montreal had one good run based on Price (and during COVID), and other than that, have done nothing.

The Leafs were rebuilding for a long time and now keep getting bounced in the first round (1 playoff series win in 19 seasons). I guess they aren't rebuilding, but did the rebuild work out?

Feels like anytime a team tries to do a "rebuild" it never really works out. Then everyone forgets what the plan was, and at some point later they get good players and turn it around and then people say the rebuild was successful.

I think we need to re-classify rebuild as "wait until my team gets good players again and those players win in the playoffs".

Re: bolded.

That’s a very good question. I was trying to think of an answer to the question, so decided to look it up.

The answer I got (blame Apple Intelligence LOL) is Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAK & New Jersey Devils. I did a little more research, but It would take even more time to figure this out for all 4 of these teams.

For Pittsburgh, they were pretty crappy from 1998-99 through & including 2005-06 (one year was a lockout though), before winning their 1st Cup in 2008-09.

For Chicago, they were pretty crappy from 1997/98 to 2007/08. The Hawks were in the Conference final in 2008/09 & won the Cup in 2009/10.

So, I got the process started, but would be kind of curious about the other 2 teams mentioned here if someone wanted to take that task on (I’m too lazy).

So, I guess I got the process started at least.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Superstar C: Stutzle
Top 5/10 D all-around D: Sanderson
Number 1 G/Excellent Tandem: Ullmark/Meri

That is the necessary foundation for any team.

After that, it is what Bowman(?) said is necessary to win. Have 3 excellent forwards and 3 excellent defenders.

Additional excellent forwards: Tkachuk + ________( tbd if Batherson/Cozens)

Additional excellent defenders: Chabot + Jensen

Strong support/role playoff performers: Pinto/Greig/Amadio/Giroux/Perron

Strong support/defensive depth: Zub/____?

From what we can see above, the biggest question marks are as follows:

1. Who is that additional great forward who will contribute for us in a big way, can we find internal or must we seek external.

2. Is Jensen good enough to be a big impact with Zub or is there a significant drop between Sanderson/Chabot and them?

3. How will Ullmark perform. He has been very poor in playoffs till date.

Nontheless, we are in excellent position moving forward. Really excellent. We just need to ensure we are filling up the cupboard because someone like Yakemchuk or a notable forward prospect could be that necessary big contributor in the second wave of our core's push to contention like we have seen many times over with likes of Dallas (Wyatt), Toronto (Knies), TB (Point), Florida (Lundell), Carolina (Jarvis).

I think I only like CBJ and what they building. They don't have the defensive great depth after Werenski nor great goaltending, though. They shore those and they will be a powerhouse.

 

[PlayOn]

Re: bolded.

That’s a very good question. I was trying to think of an answer to the question, so decided to look it up.

The answer I got (blame Apple Intelligence LOL) is Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAK & New Jersey Devils. I did a little more research, but It would take even more time to figure this out for all 4 of these teams.

For Pittsburgh, they were pretty crappy from 1998-99 through & including 2005-06 (one year was a lockout though), before winning their 1st Cup in 2008-09.

For Chicago, they were pretty crappy from 1997/98 to 2007/08. The Hawks were in the Conference final in 2008/09 & won the Cup in 2009/10.

So, I got the process started, but would be kind of curious about the other 2 teams mentioned here if someone wanted to take that task on (I’m too lazy).

So, I guess I got the process started at least.

Successful rebuilds are largely viewed as successful only with the benefit of hindsight.

I don’t know what people were saying about Chicago in the early 2000s, but I can’t imagine anyone was looking at a team that picked 10th, 9th, 21st, 14th, 3rd, 7th, 3rd, 1st, 11th in consecutive years and thought “man, they are two years away from starting a dynasty”. That was 9 years of being mostly awful.

If someone did a poll last year and asked was the Sens rebuild successful, it would have been a resounding no. Today we are analyzing our contention window.

 

[Guy Larose]

Honestly, what are the successful rebuilds?

Edmonton was rebuilding forever before they got McDavid, but even after getting him they only had one playoff series win in his first 6 seasons. Obviously, they are a good team now, but it took a long time.

Buffalo rebuild never worked out. I guess they are still rebuilding.

Montreal had one good run based on Price (and during COVID), and other than that, have done nothing.

The Leafs were rebuilding for a long time and now keep getting bounced in the first round (1 playoff series win in 19 seasons). I guess they aren't rebuilding, but did the rebuild work out?

Feels like anytime a team tries to do a "rebuild" it never really works out. Then everyone forgets what the plan was, and at some point later they get good players and turn it around and then people say the rebuild was successful.

I think we need to re-classify rebuild as "wait until my team gets good players again and those players win in the playoffs".

Hum, that Montreal run was before the rebuild and now have one of the best prospect pools in the league according to many experts. Most of the picked players still haven't joined the team (Demidov, Hage, Fowler, Reinbacher, etc etc).

 

[BondraTime]

Squandered some very, very big pieces, and shot ourselves in the foot a load of times

 

[PlayOn]

Hum, that Montreal run was before the rebuild and now have one of the best prospect pools in the league according to many experts. Most of the picked players still haven't joined the team (Demidov, Hage, Fowler, Reinbacher, etc etc).

I think people put too much weight in prospect pool rankings.

Here’s a random one from 2018

Pronman: 2018-19 NHL farm system rankings

With young talent the key to every NHL franchise, check out how each team's pool of prospects ranks and who are the stars of tomorrow.

www.nytimes.com

This was the top 10:

1. Buffalo Sabres
2. Vancouver Canucks
3. St. Louis Blues
4. Carolina Hurricanes
5. New York Islanders
6. Montreal Canadiens
7. Detroit Red Wings
8. Vegas Golden Knights
9. Florida Panthers
10. Los Angeles Kings

Does this have any actual correlation to what teams ended up being successful? If you have a subscription to the Athletic, some of the lists are funny. I know Vegas and Florida won cups, but it had nothing to do with these prospects. Some had a lot of good prospects but still mismanaged their teams.

I’ve looked at a few now and I’ve yet to see a prospect pool ranking list that correlated to organizational success.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Honestly, what are the successful rebuilds?

Edmonton was rebuilding forever before they got McDavid, but even after getting him they only had one playoff series win in his first 6 seasons. Obviously, they are a good team now, but it took a long time.

Buffalo rebuild never worked out. I guess they are still rebuilding.

Montreal had one good run based on Price (and during COVID), and other than that, have done nothing.

The Leafs were rebuilding for a long time and now keep getting bounced in the first round (1 playoff series win in 19 seasons). I guess they aren't rebuilding, but did the rebuild work out?

Feels like anytime a team tries to do a "rebuild" it never really works out. Then everyone forgets what the plan was, and at some point later they get good players and turn it around and then people say the rebuild was successful.

I think we need to re-classify rebuild as "wait until my team gets good players again and those players win in the playoffs".

You might say that any team who wins the cup has had a successful rebuild.

At one point in the past the team sucked and then a combination of luck. smart drafting and good coaching turns things around.

Colorado had a historically bad team 5 years before they won the cup, they drafted some ridiculously talented players and turned things around, that's one example.

The real sign of a successful rebuild would be sustained success over a long time.

Boston was great for the last decade and a half. They won the cup in 2011 and made 2 more Stanley Cup finals before blowing it up this year.

Chicago was a dynasty winning in 2010, 213 and 2015.

LA won in 2012 and 2014.

Tampa has been good all throughout Jon Cooper's regin winning 2 cups and making 3 finals in three years.

The penguins were consistent since Crosby winning in 2009, 2015 and 2016.

A decade of cup contention might be the best way to judge which rebuilds really work out.

Obviously Toronto is the blueprint for how not to rebuild.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

For Ottawa to take the next step and keep the playoff window open, we need to get lucky in the draft and find a star in the later rounds. Example: Alfie and Stone in the 6th rounds altered our franchise dramatically. Even in the first round, getting a star player in the latter half like Erik Karlsson or Chabot. Obviously it's true for every organization: success hinges on finding star players.

Unfortunately, I do not see any potential later round stars from our last few drafts. Hopefully Merilainen, taken in the 3rd round, will evolve into a number one.

 

[SlapJack]

It's not just the rebuild process, what happens along the way is also critical. People look at the leafs and declare it's over for them because they squandered the prime years of their big pieces, but with a few changes and fortunate circumstances going their way, it's still possible.

Tampa started their rebuild in 2008. By 2012 they drafted Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, and Vasy. 8 years before winning the cup.

Colorado bounced in and out of the playoffs between 2009 and 2017. Hard to declare any time as a full rebuild, but they drafted Duchene, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar while making the playoffs every other year. But it was a decade of building before winning it all

Florida got Huberdeau, Barkov, and Ekblad between 2011 and 2014. They weren't even a consideration for a cup contender until after the pandemic, and only the last 3 years have been the team they are now.

All these groups took different paths to get there and none of them were overnight. Colorado was super fortunate drafting in the positions they were in those years. Tampa made some great later round pickups like Point and Cirelli, also very savvy trades. Florida also surged ahead with trades and signings that typically don't work.

So Toronto got screwed over by the pandemic. Dubas was relying on the cap to go up as it should have, then it went flat for critical years limiting their ability to improve their lineup. They've never had goaltending and their D could sure use a true #1 which I don't think they've had since... Borje Salming?? If they landed those type of players somehow through trade, signing, or draft pick, things would have turned out very differently.

We've got a good core, with good pieces in the right places. Still a lot of years to comprehend with these guys. But what we have now is not quite good enough to win it all and they'll need some good fortune.

 

[Xspyrit]

Squandered some very, very big pieces, and shot ourselves in the foot a load of times

At some point, costly mistakes pile up and it's hard to recover from it

For us to have a chance to do anything significant, we'll need Staios to continue to pull Ullmark/Cozens deals... and acquire some good depth like Jensen, Amadio, Cousins... (but without paying a Chychrun of course)

And another crucial thing : need to draft extremely well again