How Do The Jackets Do In 2nd Half
- Thread starter EspenK
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Aaaarrgghh
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- Jul 17, 2022
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Around 10th in the conference would be my guess. Slightly below NHL .500.
EDIT: Based on xG, then expecting a boost from Jenner and others returning balanced out by a slight dip due to trades and a lack of endurance from a young roster.
EDIT: Based on xG, then expecting a boost from Jenner and others returning balanced out by a slight dip due to trades and a lack of endurance from a young roster.
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koteka
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We are currently at Bettman .500 — 40 points in 40 games. We are 13-5-3 at home and 4-12-3 away. So if we keep winning at home and losing on the road, and we have more road games remaining, that makes me think we finish just below Bettman .500. Throw in that we will trade a couple of guys (Provorov, Kuraly), young guys will score less at the end of the season (Voronkov had a huge drop off last season), and the fact that Jet and maybe others (Mateychuk) will be with Cleveland focused on the AHL playoff run. I am going to be slightly optimistic and am guessing 76 points. So a ten point improvement from last season.
EspenK
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- Sep 25, 2011
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I agree with your logic but my natural pessimism kicked the projection down to 74!
Although I wouldn't be surprised with less. See there is that pessimism again.
alphafox
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- Jun 14, 2011
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The team is really making this difficult. I see it going one of two ways:
1. Jenner and Chinakov return and we manage to find the next gear and take a wild card spot prior to the trade deadline. At that point I think we try to make a hockey trade to improve the back end using the MN 1st but we keep Proverov and make it into the playoffs as the 8 seed. If this plays out I think we land somewhere between 88-96 points.
2. We don't get the secondary scoring boost we need from Chinakov and Jenner returning and hit a skid where the top line isn't scoring and we get dd4-6 points out of contention for the wild card. At that point I think DW waives the white flag and hits the sell everything button and we see Proverov, JVR, Severson, etc. traded or at least attempted to be traded to maximize returns. I think we also leverage our cap space aggressively to take on contracts. At this point I expect to see a nosedive in the standings as we go from 12 to probably something like 6-8 as the team deflates, the defense gets worse and the kids start to flag toward the end of the year. Based om this I would have them at 70 points.
1. Jenner and Chinakov return and we manage to find the next gear and take a wild card spot prior to the trade deadline. At that point I think we try to make a hockey trade to improve the back end using the MN 1st but we keep Proverov and make it into the playoffs as the 8 seed. If this plays out I think we land somewhere between 88-96 points.
2. We don't get the secondary scoring boost we need from Chinakov and Jenner returning and hit a skid where the top line isn't scoring and we get dd4-6 points out of contention for the wild card. At that point I think DW waives the white flag and hits the sell everything button and we see Proverov, JVR, Severson, etc. traded or at least attempted to be traded to maximize returns. I think we also leverage our cap space aggressively to take on contracts. At this point I expect to see a nosedive in the standings as we go from 12 to probably something like 6-8 as the team deflates, the defense gets worse and the kids start to flag toward the end of the year. Based om this I would have them at 70 points.
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koteka
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I agree with your logic but my natural pessimism kicked the projection down to 74!
Although I wouldn't be surprised with less. See there is that pessimism again.
I was at 74 but decided to be slightly optimistic. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we regress a bunch in the second half and finish lower than 74.
Voronkov had 4 points in his last 24 games last season. He has got to do better than that this season, right?
I have looked at the team on paper the past three years and seen a 75-80 point team every time. They've consistently underperformed that for various reasons (health, coaching, extenuating factors). I still think this is a 75-80 point team, but they might get a boost as the two New York teams crater or if Jenner and Chinakhov can come back hot. They just look so much better this season that I worry less about them fading hugely down the stretch.
Doggy
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- Oct 11, 2011
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I am not a predictor but it should be recognized that...
- the CBJ have the two most stressful road trips out of the way: both the West Coast and Western Canada trips.
- other than a back to back in Vegas and Utah which is preceded by four days off, the CBJ have just two games outside the Eastern time zone (St Louis and Dallas).
- four back to backs in first half and three back to backs in second half.
While the home record might not be sustainable, the road record should improve.
On a side note, this is the first time I can remember Bettman .500 actually being close to the generally understood meaning of .500 (at least in the Eastern Conference). Right now the 8-9 spots are at .526 and .513 and the 10 spot is .500. Don't get me wrong, I hate the system but at the halfway point, this a funny season as far as the WC race is concerned. I think there are few train-wreck teams in the East helping to boost the mushy middle so .500 keeps you in the playoff race.
CBJWerenski8
Rest in Peace Johnny
- Jun 13, 2009
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Yeah, pretty much this. Unless our home record stays about the same and our road record improves pretty dramatically, I don’t see us staying afloat in this wild card race much longer.
I also have a lot of games in my STH plan in the back part of the year so I’m expecting our home record to dip too.
koteka
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I didn’t factor in that I will go to more games in the 2nd half of the season that the 1st half. Yes, that home record will probably dip.
Cyclones Rock
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- Jun 12, 2008
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I pegged the CBJ as a 70-75 points team. That was probably pessimistic. I'll revise to 75-80 points.
The team is rarely not competitive in games and if Fantilli can start producing up to what I think his ability is and Z continues on his tear then I'd think a Bettman .500 isn't out of the question.
I'll be at the Vegas and Utah road games coming up. Would hope for at list one W between the 2 games.
The team is rarely not competitive in games and if Fantilli can start producing up to what I think his ability is and Z continues on his tear then I'd think a Bettman .500 isn't out of the question.
I'll be at the Vegas and Utah road games coming up. Would hope for at list one W between the 2 games.
I'm gonna throw out a number, let's say 85 points.
I think they will play better in front of the net, even if Provorov is traded. We have a teamwide issue of being soft there and I expect Evason to crack down on it. That will help the save percentages.
The team might have some shooting percentage regression on the topline but their underlying possession stats are crazy good, and any drop off there can be more than counterbalanced by a little more health and production from the bottom 9. We could have a guns blazing situation in the second half.
I think they will play better in front of the net, even if Provorov is traded. We have a teamwide issue of being soft there and I expect Evason to crack down on it. That will help the save percentages.
The team might have some shooting percentage regression on the topline but their underlying possession stats are crazy good, and any drop off there can be more than counterbalanced by a little more health and production from the bottom 9. We could have a guns blazing situation in the second half.
Xoggz22
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I went over 80. My thinking is that they are still learning a system and the only player that gets moved that will impact is Provorov. The offense stays steady and we get improved PK wtih the return of Jenner (next Month I hear is likely) and possibly another boost to the top 9 with Chinny. We'll have to see how the road efforts move forward. I truly believe a lot of their struggle on the road is that they aren't matchup proof and that shows on the road. They are a matchup team and it helps at home, hurts on the road. Especially when they still have the finer points of the Evason system to learn and still lack cohesion in their own zone (5 players, not just D). I think this continues to improve overall and they can score with anyone.
CBJ goalie
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I don't see why they can't attain their current pace.
There's been some games in the first half where points were given away.
I'd like to think with their continued growth/learning curve - and adding Jenner, Chinakhov and Gudbrandson will only help.
One addition I'd love to see for the 2nd half push; Jack Campbell.
He'd be a great back up goalie, has experience and he can help spell Merzlikins for a few games here and there.
There's been some games in the first half where points were given away.
I'd like to think with their continued growth/learning curve - and adding Jenner, Chinakhov and Gudbrandson will only help.
One addition I'd love to see for the 2nd half push; Jack Campbell.
He'd be a great back up goalie, has experience and he can help spell Merzlikins for a few games here and there.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
I'd have suggested adding an 80-85 points category rather than a blanket "better than 80 points", but, whatever.
CBJWerenski8
Rest in Peace Johnny
- Jun 13, 2009
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He’s skating. I think he’s going to get in before the season ends, but he won’t play many games. Same with Gudbranson
Aaaarrgghh
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Gudbranson I heard might be done for the season. I think Portzline mentioned it recently.
