How did Brayden Point fall to the 3rd round in the 2014 draft?

[North Cole]

Yzerman paid off the GMs

Like he always does.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I watched him live quite a bit that year. He started that season smaller then when he hit the combine. He was probably 5'7 150 pounds. He was a dynamite player and lethal on the PP. A lot of scouts dismissed him because of size. Tampa dimissed him until the 3rd round so it wasn't some masterstroke either.

 

[boredmale]

I always wondered how Point fell to the 3rd round, I figured somebody would have taken a shot mid to late 2nd

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

GM's thought they'd get jebaited with his name and look like fools in the end when he turns into a no-hands bottom 6 grinder.

 

[SotasicA]

If only everyone could be drafted in the first round.

 

[Newsworthy]

Point fell because scouts are people too.

 

[Nithoniniel]

There's a plethora of supremely skilled, small players that couldn't make it in the NHL. Point is the exception, not the rule.

Actually, from the numbers I've seen, the supremely skilled but small player is among your safest bets to reach the league. Only really beaten by the supremely skilled player with average or better size. There seem to be quite a few misconceptions about what kind of abilities translate to the NHL.

Another one would be the idea of the safe pick with a lower ceiling. Picks that gets these labels have resulted in remarkably few NHL players.

As for Point, I do remember some raised questions about whether he had good enough skating for a small guy. That seem like an odd take now though.

 

[Pavels Dog]

****ing Yzerman doesn’t miss

DeAngelo, Masin and Macleod aren't exactly big 'hits'.

As is always the case with late round steals, if the team knew how good he was gonna be they would have taken him sooner... kudos to Tampa for pulling the trigger, Yzerman's willingness to take smaller guys or russians have paid off in certain cases. On the other hand taking Drouin instead of Jones probably cost them a cup or two. You win some you lose some.

 

[Spilot23]

The real question should be : How did Datsyuk and Zetterberg fall to the 6th and 7th round ?

I think there is always one player that get really underated because of size or whatever. Then the GM that takes the risk and looks like a genius after that homerun pick ! Yzerman is the genius in this one I guess along with his scouts. Can't deny how good they draft lately this team is so deep. As an Avs fans I think our last homerun picks were ROR and Barrie I hope we pull out an Yzerman soon

 

[glovesave_35]

Actually, from the numbers I've seen, the supremely skilled but small player is among your safest bets to reach the league. Only really beaten by the supremely skilled player with average or better size. There seem to be quite a few misconceptions about what kind of abilities translate to the NHL.

I think it's fair to ask the question, though. I don't know about Point's case specifically, but if skill and points were such an easy and reliable indicator there wouldn't be so many players with crazy junior scoring stats who never pan out or even come close to succeeding in the NHL.

In the end, drafting and developing (the latter also incredibly important and nearly always overlooked) are an inexact science. Sometimes really skilled guys fizzle out because they stop trying to improve some aspect of their game. Sometimes guys bloom a little late and you see guys without monster junior seasons turn a corner and become solid NHL players.

 

[boredmale]

Actually, from the numbers I've seen, the supremely skilled but small player is among your safest bets to reach the league. Only really beaten by the supremely skilled player with average or better size. There seem to be quite a few misconceptions about what kind of abilities translate to the NHL.

May I present you Taylor Cammarata, Islanders 3rd round pick in 2013

Taylor Cammarata hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com

 

[varano]

The numbers were there. He had 91 points in his WHL draft year which led the team, next highest scorers on the team were 55, 55 and 51 by a bunch of over-agers.

Of the 12 mocks/rankings listed here, only 3 had him as a top 30 pick.
2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings

Don't recall any serious injury or off-ice issues so what was it? Did scouts just miss with the belief that he likely couldn't translate in the NHL?

He's small...

 

[justafan22]

I think a lot of people directly correlate height with being size, which makes sense because it is definitely part of the picture.

But not all 5'10" are equal. There is a big difference between someone 5 10 broad shoulder 190 lbs and someone who is 5 10 lanky 140 lbs. Point was the 2nd one which is why size was a concern.

Hockeydb says that he's 165. One of the strongest guys I know if only 5'9 1/2 and 175 pounds, as long as you're over 160 pounds you can play fine in the NHL. Marner's 5'11 and had a great season at around 170 or so.

 

[absolute garbage]

For the most part, NHL scouts and GMs are not good at doing their job.

The crazy part is that Point was consensus ranked in the first round. Like 25th or so. He was one of the biggest if not the biggest first round dropper that year.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I think it's fair to ask the question, though. I don't know about Point's case specifically, but if skill and points were such an easy and reliable indicator there wouldn't be so many players with crazy junior scoring stats who never pan out or even come close to succeeding in the NHL.

In the end, drafting and developing (the latter also incredibly important and nearly always overlooked) are an inexact science. Sometimes really skilled guys fizzle out because they stop trying to improve some aspect of their game. Sometimes guys bloom a little late and you see guys without monster junior seasons turn a corner and become solid NHL players.

Oh I agree. And I'd like to point out that I didn't mean to claim that the small and skilled-archetype was really reliable. There's a high error rate no matter what when you simplify things like that. I was merely pointing out that they are more towards the reliable side than the unreliable in that span, contrary to popular belief.

Your point about development is good. I just think that it's easier for a really skilled guy to add to his game enough to be useful at the NHL level than it is for other players to improve their skill level enough to not be a liability with the puck.

May I present you Taylor Cammarata, Islanders 3rd round pick in 2013

Taylor Cammarata hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com

I never said that they are fail-proof. Besides, the lower you go in ages and competition, the less it says about their actual skill level. I'm not sure Cammarata is the best example.

The real question should be : How did Datsyuk and Zetterberg fall to the 6th and 7th round ?

Different times. NHL still didn't scout Russia or even Sweden that well back then. Most teams probably saw Datsyuk once, and he was absolutely minuscule at that age if I remember correct.

 

[boredmale]

I never said that they are fail-proof. Besides, the lower you go in ages and competition, the less it says about their actual skill level. I'm not sure Cammarata is the best example.

Cammarata scored at a very high level for a 18 year old in the USHL. To put it in perspective Gaudreau had 70 points in 60 games(compared to 90 in 60)

 

[TampaJay]

Actually, from the numbers I've seen, the supremely skilled but small player is among your safest bets to reach the league. Only really beaten by the supremely skilled player with average or better size. There seem to be quite a few misconceptions about what kind of abilities translate to the NHL.

Another one would be the idea of the safe pick with a lower ceiling. Picks that gets these labels have resulted in remarkably few NHL players.

As for Point, I do remember some raised questions about whether he had good enough skating for a small guy. That seem like an odd take now though.

 

[TampaJay]

You are correct that there were some knocks on his skating and it is hard to believe watching him now. In interviews Point gave a lot of credit to skating coach Barb Underhill, but obviously he was the one who put in the work. I go to the summer prospect camps and you could see the improvement in skating from year to year. Still, size had to be the biggest reason for the drop. BTW Yzerman traded a pick to move up one spot to get him so they obviously had their eye on him, but still they waited until the 3rd so SY is getting a bit too much credit.

 

[rent free]

He small dude

 

[Territory]

There are other small skilled players that put up good junior numbers that never make it to the NHL.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

There are other small skilled players that put up good junior numbers that never make it to the NHL.

As 19-20+ year olds, sure. Point was 17 and just obliterating the WHL.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

He small dude

But he still absolutely destroyed the competition at 17 and being 'small' in a team and league full of 19-20 year olds.

NHL players are obviously bigger and faster than CHL players, but that might've been a hint his size wouldn't be an issue. Not a scout though and didn't watch him in juniors.

 

[DFC]

I watched him live quite a bit that year. He started that season smaller then when he hit the combine. He was probably 5'7 150 pounds. He was a dynamite player and lethal on the PP. A lot of scouts dismissed him because of size. Tampa dimissed him until the 3rd round so it wasn't some masterstroke either.

TB did trade up exactly one spot to grab him though, which, when it happens in the 3rd round, tells you they really wanted the player.

I remember being on the TB board at the time. I have only the most basic knowledge of prospects coming up (basically what I see on TSN), but a lot of our more knowledgeable posters were calling for Yzerman to draft Point and predicting it would be a homerun pick.

He's really turned into a phenomenal player. This is his first playoff run and he's already been tasked with shutting down Taylor Hall and Patrice Bergeron.

 

[rent free]

But he still absolutely destroyed the competition at 17 and being 'small' in a team and league full of 19-20 year olds.

NHL players are obviously bigger and faster than CHL players, but that might've been a hint his size wouldn't be an issue. Not a scout though and didn't watch him in juniors.

Size was important then. General managers had the 'you're too small to make the NHL' mentality. Now its different.

 

[DFC]

Size was important then. General managers had the 'you're too small to make the NHL' mentality. Now its different.

I feel like TB has drawn the blueprint for this. They've had so much success drafting small, skilled players--along with skilled players other teams overlooked for a variety of reasons (Russian, for instance)--and they're now reaping the rewards, and other teams seem to be following suit.

I think TB will probably have a tougher time finding gems in the draft from here on out, because the key to their drafting success, a lot of times, seemed to be ignoring perceived negatives. It blew up in their face a couple of times too (DeAngelo, mainly, but probably Drouin too, with attitude concerns).