How conceivable was it that someone could break Gretzky's goal record?

[Hasbro]

 

[WarriorofTime]

Between Ovechkin (likely similar conversation with Crosby in two years), LeBron, Tom Brady, Ronaldo (same as with Ovie/Crosby, likely similar convo about Messi in two years) it does seem like the circumstances in the present day do allow for the GOAT level talents to stay at an extremely high level deep into old age as long as they don't get too affected by injuries. Any pure longevity stuff in sports is certainly in more danger than may have used to be conceived. So things like most times doing X could all certainly fall.

Gretzky point/assists is so tough though specifically because it takes the combination of an amazing talent that is a standard deviation ahead as well as leaguewide circumstances that are so favorable for such a player to really run up massive totals.

 

[rmartin65]

Between Ovechkin (likely similar conversation with Crosby in two years), LeBron, Tom Brady, Ronaldo (same as with Ovie/Crosby, likely similar convo about Messi in two years) it does seem like the circumstances in the present day do allow for the GOAT level talents to stay at an extremely high level deep into old age as long as they don't get too affected by injuries. Any pure longevity stuff in sports is certainly in more danger than may have used to be conceived. So things like most times doing X could all certainly fall.

I think there is probably also a bias towards modern greats- player X is the greatest I've seen, so he's the greatest ever because stuff always gets better with time, something like that.

 

[MadLuke]

In the current environment it would take a generational talent to likely play from 18 to at least 40. So 22 seasons.

Probably must be a playing until 45 like Jagr (nearly 46 his last game I think), Chelios was a bit over 48, necessary to sniff it.

Jagr scored 268 points his 40-45 seasons, there was a lock out year in that, it was some of the lowest scoring season for almost all the relevant years, less say that a Gretzky level record breaker score 325 points his 40-45 years old season.

18 to 39 years old is 22 seasons to score (2858 - 325) 2533 points an average of 115 pts a year.

Maybe we can look if would be possible to build such career from player that exist...

McDavid 18-28 will score about 1080 pts (could have been 80 more without rookie injury, covid and in general a bit more luck injuries in general) that's 1160pts.

Adams Oates scored 941 points between 29 and 39 we are at 2101, scoring got quite low from 98 to 2002, lock-out year, could have scored 80 mores, 2181. Oates had is 93 and 94 seasons in there, was a late bloomer.

Still 452 points short of the mark....

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Between Ovechkin (likely similar conversation with Crosby in two years), LeBron, Tom Brady, Ronaldo (same as with Ovie/Crosby, likely similar convo about Messi in two years) it does seem like the circumstances in the present day do allow for the GOAT level talents to stay at an extremely high level deep into old age as long as they don't get too affected by injuries. Any pure longevity stuff in sports is certainly in more danger than may have used to be conceived. So things like most times doing X could all certainly fall.

Gretzky point/assists is so tough though specifically because it takes the combination of an amazing talent that is a standard deviation ahead as well as leaguewide circumstances that are so favorable for such a player to really run up massive totals.

I believe you're right. Given enough time, medical and longevity advances will allow somebody to play at a high enough level for long enough to surpass the career totals records. It won't necessarily take a Gretzky-level player to eventually do it.

I've always maintained that 163 assists in a season is the most unbreakable of all the records. This is an outlier on top of an outlier.

If Gretzky had never existed, Mario Lemieux holds the record at 114. This itself is a mark that has never really been threatened by anyone else, Orr, McDavid, and Kucherov just managing to hit 100. We'd probably agree that this record would be almost unbreakable, but within reach enough that a once-in-a-century playmaker could come along and break it.

In our real timeline, that player did show up, Gretzky. He surpassed 114 several times, with seasons over 120 and even a season of 135, which would absolutely be seen as an incredible outlier compared to 114. 135 would be considered effectively unbreakable if that was the record Gretzky left us with.

And that record still somehow got absolutely smashed by the 1985-86 version of Gretzky. A bigger gap up from 135 to 163 than there is down to 114. Even that "once-in-a-century" level playmaker was unable to come close to that total under very similar conditions in the surrounding years.

In the years where Gretzky exceeded 120 assists, the distribution is reasonably similar from year to year. More against bad teams, fewer against strong teams, fairly similar numbers of games with 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 assists. The difference in 1986 is that you see a 6 and two 7-assist games, ostensibly in place of 0-assist games (several less than surrounding years). Gretzky only had a few such games in his whole career; three of them being clustered in this one season (that doesn't appear to have any special circumstances attached to it) is itself a statistical outlier.

I think it's fairly well acknowledged that Gretzky put a greater focus on playmaking over goal scoring starting with this season, but his assist totals never again exceeded 122 after 1986 (he did pace for 136 in his 64-game 1988 season, but still a very far cry from 163).

There's no other statistical category I can think of where the #1 result so utterly blows away the #2 result. And the #2 (and 3, and 4, etc) results belong to that same player, who would undoubtedly be considered the greatest ever in that category on their strength alone.

For however long the NHL continues to operate in a comparable manner to today (schedule length doesn't exceed 84 or 86 games, scoring levels never exceed those seen in the 80s, star players play half the game at most, usually well less), 163 assists will be the record. It will outlast the NHL, or at least our conception of it.

 

[The Panther]

I think most of us agree that the 894 goals-record was at least conceivable to break. Getting a bit off-topic, but in terms of more difficult (and more obscure) Gretzky official and unofficial records, which of the following do you think is the hardest to break?:

a) 163 assists in one season
b) 49 points scored in one calendar month
c) 147 even-strength points in one season
d) 164 non-PP points in one season
e) 181 primary points (i.e., no secondary assists) in one season
f) 104 points on the road in one season (done twice by Wayne)
g) 255 total points one season (RS + playoffs)
h) Art Ross trophy "won" by playing only 42 games of the season
i) +54 on the road only, one season
j) Fastest to reach 400 goals = 436 games played

There are other crazy ones, of course, but I think these are some of the very toughest to break. Of these, I think (a) and (h) are pretty much "fuh-get about it!".

 

[LightningStorm]

I think most of us agree that the 894 goals-record was at least conceivable to break. Getting a bit off-topic, but in terms of more difficult (and more obscure) Gretzky official and unofficial records, which of the following do you think is the hardest to break?:

a) 163 assists in one season
b) 49 points scored in one calendar month
c) 147 even-strength points in one season
d) 164 non-PP points in one season
e) 181 primary points (i.e., no secondary assists) in one season
f) 104 points on the road in one season (done twice by Wayne)
g) 255 total points one season (RS + playoffs)
h) Art Ross trophy "won" by playing only 42 games of the season
i) +54 on the road only, one season
j) Fastest to reach 400 goals = 436 games played

There are other crazy ones, of course, but I think these are some of the very toughest to break. Of these, I think (a) and (h) are pretty much "fuh-get about it!".

For what you said about A & H, I'd add G to that too.

 

[Stephen]

I think the points record remains the high bar. Just for a player to hit 2000 points they would have to consistently hit 100 points for 28 years.

Connor McDavid has 1072 points in 700 plus games. He’s just over the 1/3 mark.

So yeah, didn’t see goals coming down but points is going to be impossible-ish.

 

[Blue and Green]

I think the points record remains the high bar. Just for a player to hit 2000 points they would have to consistently hit 100 points for 28 years.

Connor McDavid has 1072 points in 700 plus games. He’s just over the 1/3 mark.

So yeah, didn’t see goals coming down but points is going to be impossible-ish.

Points and assists both. Gretzky had more than twice as many assists as goals and it took a terrific goal scorer who has also been very durable until age 39 to break his goals record.

 

[Stephen]

Points and assists both. Gretzky had more than twice as many assists as goals and it took a terrific goal scorer who has also been very durable until age 39 to break his goals record.

Assists us less glamorous so I just lump it as a secondary milestone to raw points but yeah it would be hard… basically you would need McDavid to continue at his pace for another 20 years.

 

[Blue and Green]

Assists us less glamorous so I just lump it as a secondary milestone to raw points but yeah it would be hard… basically you would need McDavid to continue at his pace for another 20 years.

Yep, it would require a repeat not only of Gretzky's brilliance as a playmaker but also of the very high-scoring era in which he played the majority of his career. Ovechkin breaking his goals record is a pretty amazing feat; the assists and points are, as you said, effectively impossible under present circumstances.