How conceivable was it that someone could break Gretzky's goal record?

[MadLuke]

If we take into account how scoring change over the years Esposito 69 to 80 could be the biggest lead, followed by Esposito 68 to 79 than 2007-2018 over Crosby. (1943 and 1944 scoring was really high...)

 

[The Panther]

If we take into account how scoring change over the years Esposito 69 to 80 could be the biggest lead, followed by Esposito 68 to 79 than 2007-2018 over Crosby. (1943 and 1944 scoring was really high...)

1944 and 1945 scoring was really high, but almost all of Howe's and most of Richard's best years were really low scoring. Esposito's goal numbers are a bit Gretzky-ish in that they're superhuman in his six or seven best, and then in the latter-70s he's just good. But I think the stats actually flatter Esposito as, if anything, scoring got "easier" in the late-70s (whereas in Gretzky's case it got harder as he passed his prime).

One interesting thing from this 12-season thing is that Bobby Hull doesn't come out smelling as great as I would have thought. I expected he'd be up with Rocket, Wayne, and Ovechkin -- probably above Esposito -- but he wasn't ahead of any of them.

I might rank the most impressive 12-year periods as:
-- Richard (1a)
-- Ovechkin (1b)
-- Gretzky

 

[MadLuke]

1944 and 1945 scoring was really high, but almost all of Howe's and most of Richard's best years were really low scoring.

exactly, that why that adjusted for the opponents they faced Ds it is the most affected, his 45 and before goals affected without touching Howe totals.

"adjusted" for defense of individual team they faced, there is mostly repeat taking everyone that did it (they best run)

196869	197980	Phil Esposito	687	Garry Unger	443	55
200607	201718	Alex Ovechkin	733	Sidney Crosby	495	48
197980	199091	Wayne Gretzky	687	Mike Gartner	486	41
194243	195354	Maurice Richard	465	Gordie Howe	329	41
195960	197071	Bobby Hull	643	Frank Mahovlich	465	38
195051	196162	Gordie Howe	580	Bernie Geoffrion	431	35
198990	200001	Brett Hull	662	Jaromir Jagr	542	22
197374	198485	Marcel Dionne	573	Guy Lafleur	477	20
199900	201011	Jarome Iginla	575	Marian Hossa	492	17
199495	200506	Jaromir Jagr	607	Peter Bondra	524	16
198485	199596	Mario Lemieux	579	Brett Hull	514	13
197576	198687	Mike Bossy	562	Marcel Dionne	555	1

Obviously the quality of the second place scorer (and how many games they played during that time, Gartner played the same amount of games as Gretzky, making him strong competition in that regard).

Biggest lead in gpg among the most goals and second most goals push Espo 69 and Espo 68 than Gretzky 80-91, Hull 60-71, Ovechkin 13-24 over Tavares has the top 5 I think.

But Howe was an elite gpg second place to face here, same for those who had Lemieux has second place or when Howe had Richard has second place.

 

[Crosby2010]

I think the career goals record is maybe among his top 5 best records, possibly.

I've got career points and career assists ahead of it. Maybe single season points and single season assists ahead of it as something unlikely to be broken as well. Playoff points (career) as well since McDavid wasn't all that far off the single season record just last year. So yeah, the career goals record is not his best record by any means, and it is harder to top than his single season goal record, but it is still hard to see someone doing it simply because the math says you need 18 years of 50 goals to do it.

I didn't think someone would do it in our lifetime until around 2020 when Ovechkin just wasn't slowing down like you'd expect a mid 30s guy to do goal scoring wise. And even then it looked like it would be hard to beat. I think when Ovechkin retires and ends up with the career numbers of goals is when we might sit back and realize how hard THAT record will be to beat. People say Auston Matthews, but no. He's been hurt too much already in his career and just because he is at the same pace per game that Ovechkin has been it is very hard for me to see him racking up 50 goals at 35 years of age regularly. For example he might be lucky to get 35 this year. Traditionally you need to get the lion's share of your goals in your 20s. And who else is there? Bedard? Celebrini? No, it isn't happening.

So personally I see Ovechkin's record as being harder to see it get matched than Gretzky's 894.

 

[bobholly39]

It should have never been Gretzky's to begin with...

Yes, it should have, and it would have been his no matter what.

Gretzky may not have held onto it long (ie, healthy Lemieux passes him, etc) - but for me he always beats it. There's no one that came before him that could have put forth a higher number he wouldn't have surpassed.

Gretzky peaked in one of the highest scoring eras ever. Howe peaked in one of the lowest. Gretzky beat Howe's goal record by 10%. It's conceivable that in more normalized conditions Gretzky doesn't beat Howe.

Gretzky beat Howe's assists by 80%. Even in a flipped scoring environment Gretzky still gets the assist record.

Changing scoring environments is a broader hypothetical than just no injuries to one player, which to me is an easier thing to speculate on, since it only impacts one player, rather than whole league.

But - I still believe Gretzky would have beaten Howe's record, even if era was higher and instead of 801 Howe had ~900 or even ~950.

There's a reason Gretzky is the greatest player ever, and why he destroyed every record imaginable - he wanted those records. If Howe didn't have 801 - but rather 925 goals - to me I'd say with 99% certainty, Gretzky would have retired with 926 minimum. Either he scores a bit more goals (and as a result, a few less assists) during his prime/peak years, or scores some more goals in his later seasons, or maybe hangs around an extra year or two. But he would have topped it because he wanted it.

Gretzky's goal-scoring declined in his second half - so he probably couldn't have kept up with Lemieux for raw total career goals if Lemieux had a perfect career and scored 1000+ (but Gretzky would own the record prior to that since Lemieux is younger). I think he'd have kept up with absolutely anyone else that came before him (Ovechkin doesn't count either, he's after).

The thing we're not considering in these hypothetical where we adjust stats is that Gretzky isn't a "constant" at 894. That's just where he stopped - if he had a higher number than 801 to shoot for, he'd have found a way.

 

[bobholly39]

I think the career goals record is maybe among his top 5 best records, possibly.

I've got career points and career assists ahead of it. Maybe single season points and single season assists ahead of it as something unlikely to be broken as well. Playoff points (career) as well since McDavid wasn't all that far off the single season record just last year. So yeah, the career goals record is not his best record by any means, and it is harder to top than his single season goal record, but it is still hard to see someone doing it simply because the math says you need 18 years of 50 goals to do it.

I didn't think someone would do it in our lifetime until around 2020 when Ovechkin just wasn't slowing down like you'd expect a mid 30s guy to do goal scoring wise. And even then it looked like it would be hard to beat. I think when Ovechkin retires and ends up with the career numbers of goals is when we might sit back and realize how hard THAT record will be to beat. People say Auston Matthews, but no. He's been hurt too much already in his career and just because he is at the same pace per game that Ovechkin has been it is very hard for me to see him racking up 50 goals at 35 years of age regularly. For example he might be lucky to get 35 this year. Traditionally you need to get the lion's share of your goals in your 20s. And who else is there? Bedard? Celebrini? No, it isn't happening.

So personally I see Ovechkin's record as being harder to see it get matched than Gretzky's 894.

In terms of most prestigious records - career goals is super high. Top 3 for sure if not higher - there's a reason everyone's making such a big deal for Ovi. Even though his career assist totals is way higher, it's a less prestigious record.

But in terms of Gretzkys most impressive and meaningful records, I'd probably go:

1. Career assists. Will never be touched unless a lot of drastic changes happen to hockey, and even then, it's unlikely

2. Career points.

3. Single season assists. Its easier for a one year fluke than for a career, which is why it's below the other 2 - but the actual total is insane and hard to fathom being broken

To me those top 3 are the unbeatable ones. Everything else is at least somewhat plausible, such as:

1. Single season points. 215 is insane. But McDavid just did 150+. Give a perfect storm season in a higher scoring year to a player of his caliber or better, and i could see this fall one day. Who knows - maybe league goes up to 90 games or more soon to help.

2. Career playoffs. This one will depend on a player having phenomenal team success his whole career, with consistent long playoff runs. If they ever add a 5th round, this can help too

3. Single season goals - 92. Its an incredibly high number, but i think it's doable. I honestly think peak Matthews came very close to over 1 goal per game in 22 and 24 but injuries hurt him slightly. 92 isn't that much farther. Perfect storm of a season for right player i could see it fall

Career goals is at most the 7th most impressive record for me. And that's of course ignoring all of the points per game record, or streaks, or fastest to 50 goals etc.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Gretzky's hardest record to beat is 16x leading the league in assists.

Orr is second at 5. McDavid third at 4.

 

[MadLuke]

...

Everything that use raw number are some rules change (or league playstyle away) to fall, 16x leading in assists, Hart wins are more resistant to a change (such as counting 3 assists per goals or turning the league in 4x4 hockey with 8 forward roster but 40 teams) with 4 on 3 power plays being the norm (with over 40% success rate).

To take some examples, Marleau do not break Howe game played records without the season length changing, no tie open the door for someone to break Brodeur wins record one day (Fleury do not past Roy or had least not yet without it), Gretzky would not have passed Howe goals records in 70 games seasons and low scoring.

 

[The Panther]

Gretzky's hardest record to beat is 16x leading the league in assists.

It's not a scoring record, per se, but 8 Hart trophies in a row (in player's first 8 seasons no less) is gonna be pretty impossible to beat...

 

[Slats432]

Every record will eventually be broken. That's just the reality of sports. Howe's records fell. Ruth's records fell. KAJ's records fell. So too will Ovechkin's goal records. So too will Gretzky's point records.

There are some records that due to changes in the game/schedule are pretty much impossible. Here are a couple that I think are next to impossible.

Glenn Hall 502 consecutive starts.
Tiger Williams 3966 career PIMs. (Current leader active is Tom Wilson with 1520)
Gordie Howe, oldest player to score an NHL goal (52 years old)
Bill Mosienko, fastest 3 goals ever. (3 goals in 21 seconds)
Henri Richard, most cups as a player. (11)

As time went on it was more and more likely Ovi was going to do it. I remember discussions 10 years ago about it and people trying to calculate what it would take. I though it was possible because his game and goal scoring don't rely on skating and skill, it is mostly shot and positioning.

 

[Fourier]

Of Gretzky's many records goal scoring was one I would have thought could be broken. Gretzky early in his career was somewhat more goal focused but for much of his career he was pass first, pass second and pass third in his approach, especially on the pp where he would typically not shoot unless there were just no other options. Gretzky is 18th all time for pp goals while he is first in pp assists by 98 over second place Ray Bourque. Similarly on odd man rushes where Gretzky was incredibly deadly. In a two on one with Kurri for example, Gretzky was going to pass. That is just the way it was. But he was able to delay that pass long enough to force the goalie to commit before flipping the puck to Kurri for a what was often a virtual tap in. In such a situation OV would be in more of the Kurri role, the finisher.

If anyone ever comes close to Gretzky's assist record I will be totally shocked.

 

[MadLuke]

Gretzky's assist record

Someone achieving to play 80 games a year in average (better not get any work stoppage), score 1.1 assists per games in average (McDavid is at 1.13 assist per game since 2021, so that kind of pace would need to be your career average with the rookie year and your old age).

You still need to play 22 seasons and a half.

 

[bobholly39]

There are some records that due to changes in the game/schedule are pretty much impossible. Here are a couple that I think are next to impossible.

Glenn Hall 502 consecutive starts.
Tiger Williams 3966 career PIMs. (Current leader active is Tom Wilson with 1520)
Gordie Howe, oldest player to score an NHL goal (52 years old)
Bill Mosienko, fastest 3 goals ever. (3 goals in 21 seconds)
Henri Richard, most cups as a player. (11)

As time went on it was more and more likely Ovi was going to do it. I remember discussions 10 years ago about it and people trying to calculate what it would take. I though it was possible because his game and goal scoring don't rely on skating and skill, it is mostly shot and positioning.

I think the 502 consecutive starts is by far #1. I can't see how it would ever fall. We'll never again put such a big workload on one goalie, with so much risk. Only way this could ever fall is if players are replaced with robots, and a robot starts 503 straight games.

The 3 goals 21 seconds is insane...but it's one of those flukes that could also fall next game. A bit like 10 points in one game. Single event records are hard to gauge that way, because they're so unpredictable.

A goal as a 52 year old? I could see that to be honest. Jagr is 53 and still playing professional isn't he? A team hiring him for playoffs - and him scoring a goal - doesn't seem impossible.

11 cups...yeah that feels hard. If someone ever did beat it, it wouldn't be a high profile player, but more a journeyman who lucks out with a perfect storm of team selection. ie a 3rd or 4th liner who might have played for Pitt in 16 & 17, for Tampa in 20 & 21, etc...and perfect storm your way to 11x. Super improbable, but not outright impossible I suppose.

Penalty minutes...it's easier to imagine with rule changes. NHL could decide a "game penalty" is worth 60 minutes for examples. Without rule changes it's hard to fathom though.

 

[MadLuke]

think the 502 consecutive starts is by far #1.

it is not just start, he played 100% of all the games.... it is 552 with the playoff games.

When you look at the team stats, in the goaltender lines there is only one name:

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Not even a pie break for almost 8 consecutives seasons.

Starts could be gamed by having the goaltender replaced after the first shift (like we see in the nfl streak...)

It is 552 consecutive complete games (502 in the regular season). It could only happen with some funky magic for us level medicine of steam cell full body repair between games appearing in the future.

 

[Crosby2010]

Gretzky's hardest record to beat is 16x leading the league in assists.

Orr is second at 5. McDavid third at 4.

I think that's actually more impressive than Ovechkin leading the NHL in goals 9 times. Is basically double that. 16 years in the NHL is impressive. 16 years of leading a major category is out of this world. And let's not forget he did it 13 times in a row.

I also think we can put to bed anyone getting 10 Art Ross trophies. McDavid has 5, Howe and Mario 6. I don't know if McDavid bounces back next year and gets 6, but I am thinking he never reaches 7.

It's not a scoring record, per se, but 8 Hart trophies in a row (in player's first 8 seasons no less) is gonna be pretty impossible to beat...

Oh yeah. Not to mention he gets a 9th. Considering no one in any other major North American team sport has done this is telling. But yeah, 8 in a row is unconscious. Howe had 6 in total. While we're at it, McDavid has "only" three. If we assume Draisaitl gets it this year that's two for him. Eddie Shore had 4. No one else in NHL history had more than three. So yeah, who the heck gets 9?

 

[WarriorofTime]

The 1,963 career assists feels pretty unbreakable. Only 13 other players have more than 0.5X. Scoring would really need to go back up and a talent like Gretzky plus longevity to come around.

 

[zappa4ever]

in the 90's and through just a few years ago it was pretty inconceivable

in the 90's the Gartners and Hulls and Yzers and Messrs were all falling short by 150+ goals and they were the best at the time

While def the most "reachable" between G, A, and Pts it was still something that was a moonshot; there was never really any talk of anyone getting close until Jagr

Just last season with OV's rough start 894 was completely in doubt until the post-Dubai trip and he went on a tear to close out RS

 

[MadLuke]

He did tie it using one less game, which is quite nice.

If he play next season, should enter the Top in points and top 20 in games as well..

 

[WarriorofTime]

He did tie it using one less game, which is quite nice.

If he play next season, should enter the Top in points and top 20 in games as well..

Yes, should retire top 10 in points (23 behind Sakic at the time of this post) but probably won't stay too long with McDavid still putting up big totals. 3rd from a player that was primarily a Wing should hold for longer.

 

[Daximus]

Gretzky's hardest record to beat is 16x leading the league in assists.

Orr is second at 5. McDavid third at 4.

I think that one is honestly more beatable than the points records both regular season and playoffs. Like it will be tough but if some kind of assist magician comes along and happens to get on a team with some shooters and they just click and stay together for 16+ years. But the all time points records are nearly unbeatable without a major change in the way the game is played.

No one has even come close to 2000 yet really in regular season play and would need another 868 after that and playoffs no one that wasn't on the Oilers dynasty has even come anywhere near 250 let alone 382 required to tie it. Those two records likely stand the test of time at this point.

 

[MadLuke]

No one has even come close to 2000 yet really in regular season play

Jagr 1921 is not particularly far from 2000... And did show without a doubt that it was possible to do considering his career arc.

 

[Daximus]

Jagr 1921 is not particularly far from 2000... And did show without a doubt that it was possible to do considering his career arc.

He might have hit 2000 in another few seasons but by the end his body was catching up to him in the NHL. Had he never left for KHL it's pretty likely he would have hit it but the point still stands that no one is really all that close. Who knows what happens to his career if he stays in the NHL.

McDavid has the best chance now to pass the 2000 point threshold. And even if he does he would still need another half a career worth of production to pass Gretz after that.

No one is going to touch that points record likely ever without a major change.

 

[GlitchMarner]

He might have hit 2000 in another few seasons but by the end his body was catching up to him in the NHL. Had he never left for KHL it's pretty likely he would have hit it but the point still stands that no one is really all that close. Who knows what happens to his career if he stays in the NHL.

McDavid has the best chance now to pass the 2000 point threshold. And even if he does he would still need another half a career worth of production to pass Gretz after that.

No one is going to touch that points record likely ever without a major change.

I don't see anyone breaking Gretzky's point record for the RS or playoffs, either.

Jagr would have cleared 2000 if not for the 1995 and 2004 Lockouts. But he still wouldn't have come close to 2800+ points.

 

[MadLuke]

would still need another half a career worth of production to pass Gretz after that.

One other way to look how far it is... if Crosby play 5 seasons after this one (until his 42 years old) and play at an really good / incredible 65 points per season pace (achieving more than 75 games per year to do so), he will barely reach that 2000 pts mark.

The 850 missing points, that almost like doing all of 2007 to 2017 prime (925pts) all over again over that hypothetical best case scenario play until he is about to turn 43 and still producing...

Jagr, no lock-outs, no KHL and Lemieux stay and the penguins keep a team together until the lock-out, healthy all along, can see him reaching 2300 (while retiring earlier).

That still 560 points off the mark.

McDavid, he is still 22 seasons of 82 games at 1 ppg pace away to break the mark, he is Joe Thornton whole career +250 more points away.

 

[Daximus]

I don't see anyone breaking Gretzky's point record for the RS or playoffs, either.

Jagr would have cleared 2000 if not for the 1995 and 2004 Lockouts. But he still wouldn't have come close to 2800+ points.

In the current environment it would take a generational talent to likely play from 18 to at least 40. So 22 seasons. Likely somehow land on a team with some talent surrounding them right out of the gate at 18 and be given 1st line, #1PP time right out of the gate as well. And they would still need to average at least 130 points every season for their entire 22 year career. So pretty much a unicorn of a player put into a perfect situation. Imagine the durability of Ovi, with the all around talent of at least McDavid and the consistency of a player never seen before and also be surrounded by a solid core for pretty much their entire career.

The only way it really happens is if the NHL finds a way to get scoring to 80's levels and that player is able to get into at least the 160+ range consistently for a very good chunk of their career and have longevity to carry it out until their late 30's at the very least. I don't see any other road to breaking that record because the unicorn player listed above would need to be an absolute freak of nature near god level being.