How conceivable was it that someone could break Gretzky's goal record?

LightningStorm

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Dec 19, 2008
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As Ovechkin is on the cusp of surpassing Gretzky's record 894 career goals (his goal tonight put him at 891), how conceivable was it at the time of Gretzky's retirement that someone could break it? Someone breaking his assist and points records is as inconceivable now as it was then, as him having more career assists than any player has points speaks for itself for how he's in another universe with those 2 categories. The only interesting what if scenario to me involving his assists and points is does Lemieux's point total surpass Gretzky's assist totals if Mario was healthy.

His career goals record never stood out to the same degree as the other two, though it's more due to how impressive those other two records are. The key difference is there are reasonable what if scenarios of another player scoring more. This included Bobby Hull playing his whole career in the NHL, and Lemieux with better health. These two, prior to Ovechkin, are who I think had the best shot at surpassing 894 (Gretzky's combined NHL and WHA goal lead over Bobby Hull is a much closer 938 vs 913 as oppose to his 894 vs 610 NHL edge). I think a healthy Bossy joins the likes of Howe, Jagr, and Brett Hull of being within respectable distance. He's not the same outlier in his goals record as he is in his assists and points records.

Because his goals record was much less of an outlier, how conceivable did you think it was that someone could break it after he retired with 894 goals?
 
I don't think I ever gave it much thought, but it was obviously the most attainable of Gretzky's career totals, given that there are several players within a reasonably close distance.

And Lemieux would easily have 1000+ with decent health.

Several guys have over 700, some players like Hull, Bossy, Jagr would've scored significantly more under different circumstances.

But it's amazing what Ovechkin has done in a much lower scoring environment that what Gretzky faced.

Ovechkin is a great goal scorer and he fully deserves the record.
 
Whenever you compared it to his other notable records it always seemed the easiest to fall by far and it was the one you sorta figured others could have broken with better health, starting earlier, staying around longer, role, era, and so on
 
I think it was very conceivable, for basically the reasons you outline.

I was never that excited about Gretzky having the career goals' record when he reached 802 anyway, as it happened in an unhappy time in his career. And I don't think he "deserved" it any more than Richard, Howe, or Hull.
 
if scoring would have stayed low it could still have been really hard to reach.

Since 94-1995 (~30 years now) no one scored 650 outside Ovechkin, he really did something out norm (40% more goals than everyone else the last 30 years pretty much and counting) and for a while people would have answered no way he would.

But it was one of the most in reach for sure, Jagr did 766 with KHL breaks, lock-out, lot of his prime in a low-scoring environment etc.. Easy to imagine him scoring a bit over 850 if things goes differently, with 4 more seasons played in the NHL when he was youngers and keeping is motivation up all along for example could have been more than enough for that and 850 is not far away.
 
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Players other than Ovechkin who had a realistic shot at topping 894 goals:

1. Lemieux. With health, he 100% tops it. Probably surpasses 1000+ goals. I think if both Gretzky & Lemieux had healthy careers, they'd have comparable point totals (still lean Gretzky ahead), but Lemieux would have more goals, and Gretzky way more assist. So - this one is obvious.

2. Bobby Hull. I think there's a "chance", but I actually don't see it. He might have passed Howe at 801 though. Scoring was low in his prime. He had 610 goals in the NHL after his age 33 season (when he left for WHA). In comparison - Ovechkin had 658 at that age. So for Hull to surpass Ovechkin, he'd have to age better than Ovechkin past age 33, enough to make up ~50+ goals, which to me seems like a big stretch.

3. Bossy. I think he's a bit of an unknown. He doesn't contend with the likes of Lemieux, Gretzky or the Hull's for peak goal-scoring to me, but I feel he had the consistency Ovechkin has. It's possible he would have aged well too. In my opinion - if he ages well with health, he'd top 900+, but fall short of 1000 (unlike Lemieux, who'd do 1000+).

4. Brett Hull. With him, it's more about him only starting in the NHL at age 22. If he had started at 18 - and done ~decent, that's 5 more seasons. 894 goals - 741 (Hull's career total) is 153 - divided by 5 seasons, that's an average of 31 goals.

5. Selanne. Exact same calculations as Brett Hull. Started at age 22, and hit 76 in his rookie season. If he plays since age 18 in those high-scoring season, he might be able to another 210 goals total. Either way, certainly would surpass 801.

6. Auston Matthews. Age for age - Matthews is ahead of Ovechkin by ~30 goals. Very good chance he can pass 801, and 894 is still attainable (though obviously a very long way to go).

Players who had a realistic shot at topping Gretzky's assist record:

1. ______________________

Players who had a realistic shot at topping Gretzky's point record:

1. Lemieux. And it's not even "realistic", as he would need a perfect storm career health-wise, and even with that I think it'd be a long shot. He'd definitely come #2 all-time, and somewhat close to Gretzky, but actually topping Gretzky I think would be a stretch.


So - it's pretty obvious the goal record is the most attainable of the 3. And Auston Matthews is already on pace to surpass it again (which we agree is very unlikely, since ageing as well as Ovechkin in the 30s is unheard of).
 
Players other than Ovechkin who had a realistic shot at topping 894 goals:

1. Lemieux. With health, he 100% tops it. Probably surpasses 1000+ goals. I think if both Gretzky & Lemieux had healthy careers, they'd have comparable point totals (still lean Gretzky ahead), but Lemieux would have more goals, and Gretzky way more assist. So - this one is obvious.
Lemieux definitely would have had a chance at 900 or more, if health permitted. The only disadvantage for Lemieux is that he gets in only about six prime seasons in a high-scoring period before the League starts to slow down (however, the Pens were still scoring a lot for a couple years after most team weren't, so maybe this isn't such a big deal). Then, Lemieux was around 30-31 when scoring starts to drop. So, his timing was good, but not as good with perfect health, as, say, Mike Bossy's could have been. However, I do think that with all things being equal, Lemieux is the best goal-scorer in NHL history, so assuming good health and a lot of consistent motivation (which is even harder) he could certainly be #1 in total goals, even well after Ovi.

(I disagree, however, that Lemieux and Gretzky could have comparable point totals. This would only be possible if Mario played three or four more seasons than Wayne. I think Mario had too big of a gap off the early parts of each player's careers. In his first 5 seasons, Wayne racked up 914 points, while in Mario's first 5 he hit 715. He was already 200 points behind by age 23.)
2. Bobby Hull. I think there's a "chance", but I actually don't see it. He might have passed Howe at 801 though. Scoring was low in his prime. He had 610 goals in the NHL after his age 33 season (when he left for WHA). In comparison - Ovechkin had 658 at that age. So for Hull to surpass Ovechkin, he'd have to age better than Ovechkin past age 33, enough to make up ~50+ goals, which to me seems like a big stretch.
Scoring was low in his prime, yes, but when he was still very much in his latter prime (1968 onward) scoring started going way up. There were a lot of bad teams to beat up on from 1972-73 to say, 1980-81, or whenever Hull might have otherwise retired. So, I do think he likely matched or broke Howe's (then) record if he had played through in the NHL. Around 800, anyway.
3. Bossy. I think he's a bit of an unknown. He doesn't contend with the likes of Lemieux, Gretzky or the Hull's for peak goal-scoring to me, but I feel he had the consistency Ovechkin has. It's possible he would have aged well too. In my opinion - if he ages well with health, he'd top 900+, but fall short of 1000 (unlike Lemieux, who'd do 1000+).
I can see the argument both ways for Bossy. His short career was "all-killer no-filler", but his career was also perfectly centered in the highest-scoring / weakest-defense era. Scoring dropped quite a bit in 1986-87 (Bossy was still great, but not quite up to peak anymore), then rebounded for two seasons, and then started dropping pretty regularly from 1989-90 onward. There's also the fact that the Islanders went into the crapper from around 1988 onward, and never fully came out. Would Bossy, a decorated veteran of five Cup runs, have had the motivation to keep striving for 40-goals every year up to 1995 or whatever if his team was awful? If the answer is 'yes', then sure, he had a shot.
4. Brett Hull. With him, it's more about him only starting in the NHL at age 22. If he had started at 18 - and done ~decent, that's 5 more seasons. 894 goals - 741 (Hull's career total) is 153 - divided by 5 seasons, that's an average of 31 goals.
The impressive thing about Hull is that even though he fell far off from his three peak years (which the vocal anti-Wayne crowd always chirp him about, but curiously never apply the same to Hull) as a goal-scorer, he was still really productive right up to almost the very end. In other words, like Ovechkin (if not quite as extremely good), he found ways to adapt his game in order to remain a big scorer. With so much of his latter prime and 'senior' years in the DPE though, I'm not sure how many total goals he could have scored. (As you say, if he'd started at 18-19, then maybe he would have done it.)
5. Selanne. Exact same calculations as Brett Hull. Started at age 22, and hit 76 in his rookie season. If he plays since age 18 in those high-scoring season, he might be able to another 210 goals total. Either way, certainly would surpass 801.
I find this one less likely. Not impossible, but less likely. 1989-90, 1990-91, and 1991-92 weren't hugely high-scoring seasons anyway, and if Selanne was not yet at his physical prime, I don't see him scoring more than 30-40 goals around here. (Also, in Selanne's and Jagr's cases, are we still assuming the 2004 Lock Out? As we saw, that year off had a big resurgent effect on Selanne's career.)
6. Auston Matthews. Age for age - Matthews is ahead of Ovechkin by ~30 goals. Very good chance he can pass 801, and 894 is still attainable (though obviously a very long way to go).
He's already halfway to 400, which is amazing... but Gretzky at his age had about 600. As ever, it'll all depend on how Matthews ages. I think we all know the odds of him being another freak-of-nature like Ovechkin are slim... Matthews is having slightly an off-year this year (still 40-goal pace), but if he can come back strong with another 55-60 season next year, he's looking good so far.

(While we're doing this, we should note that Gretzky experienced injury and work-stoppage, also. These largely weren't in his prime, but we would still be adding on another 50+ goals to his total, which puts him at 944... which means Ovi isn't matching him until late next season at the earliest. Then, Howe's prime was not only low scoring but with shorter seasons. Add on 100GP to his prime years and then keep him in the NHL until 1979 or something... and how many more goals? A lot. We mentioned Hull and the WHA. And Rocket Richard had 50-game seasons when he was very young, and, like Howe, 70-game seasons for the rest of his career.)

To rack up 750+ (or whatever) NHL goals, the player needs these things (besides elite-talent, obviously):
1. Perfect-storm timing / situation (higher scoring and not leaving the NHL, say)
2. Health / Endurance
3. Ability to adapt goal scoring across different eras
4. Motivation to keep at his highest / peak level even in down years or when team sucks, etc.

Richard and Howe didn't have (1). Hull didn't have (1) either because he 'defected'. Gretzky didn't have (3) or maybe (4) (or both) in terms of scoring goals. Lemieux didn't have (2) and I'm not certain about (4).

But Ovi checks all boxes.
 
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It may have been the least impressive of Gretzky's stat records, but it definitely seemed nearly impossible to break at the time of Gretzky's retirement (clutch and grab, all-time scoring lows, top scorers receiving so much beating it seemed impossible anyone would go on strong and long enough), and it seemed hardly possible ten years ago when the league scoring was treading in a mud as Ovechkin's ability was shrinking and we thought numbers would follow the path of mediocrity.

No-one knew things would open up so much that top players would be scoring in the 140s or even 50s and Ovi's limited ability would be good enough for fifty goals for so many years despite getting old. I did not. I became a believer around 2018/19.

So I believe the record is pretty huge.
 
Jagr breaks it if he doesn't go to Russia at 35. Even with his time away from the NHL he finished with 766

IMO the career goals record was more towards the middle of "unbreakable" for Gretzky's records. Definitely not as god like as his points record and single season goals/points records
 
Jagr breaks it if he doesn't go to Russia at 35. Even with his time away from the NHL he finished with 766

IMO the career goals record was more towards the middle of "unbreakable" for Gretzky's records. Definitely not as god like as his points record and single season goals/points records

Part of the reason Jagr left is he felt washed up. Hard to say how well he would have played had he stayed and even harder to imagine he would have played ten more years. What we do know is his shot got worse after his shoulder injury in 2006 and his goal totals were out of the 50s and likely even the 40s realm for good.
 
The first time I saw Ovechkin play he was a young kid competing for Dynamo Moscow.

I could tell right away that he was going to be a huge star, one of the greatest forwards ever. People thought I was joking. I wasn't.
 
The first time I saw Ovechkin play he was a young kid competing for Dynamo Moscow.

I could tell right away that he was going to be a huge star, one of the greatest forwards ever. People thought I was joking. I wasn't.

The question was whether you believed that he (*) would break Gretzky's goal record. There have been many greatest forwards ever, and none (to date) have broken this record.

(*) Or someone else.
 
The question was whether you believed that he (*) would break Gretzky's goal record. There have been many greatest forwards ever, and none (to date) have broken this record.

(*) Or someone else.

I didn't think about that back in 2004. One can't predict if a player will survive 20 years without being injured a lot.

BUT if someone told me then that Ovechkin will become the man who broke Gretzky's record, I wouldn't be shocked.

PS. By one of the greatest I meant something like the top 5 forwards of modern era.
 
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Every record will eventually be broken. That's just the reality of sports. Howe's records fell. Ruth's records fell. KAJ's records fell. So too will Ovechkin's goal records. So too will Gretzky's point records.


If you look at the landscape upon Gretzky's retirement, the goals record is the smallest of the three.


TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.121.261.49
Assists1.781.872.20
Points1.541.801.95

Compare that to Howe on his 1971 retirement


TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.421.872.17
Assists1.411.762.02
Points1.481.812.03

We see a comparable dominance to Gretzky (moreso for goals). And now Howe isn't top 2 in any category.

Just look at Gretzky now

TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.001.211.29
Assists1.571.701.86
Points1.491.591.74


It was always the most vulnerable of the three records. 700 goals used to be unheard of. Now, we have had 8 players do it (plus Matthews).
 
Every record will eventually be broken. That's just the reality of sports. Howe's records fell. Ruth's records fell. KAJ's records fell. So too will Ovechkin's goal records. So too will Gretzky's point records.


If you look at the landscape upon Gretzky's retirement, the goals record is the smallest of the three.


TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.121.261.49
Assists1.781.872.20
Points1.541.801.95

Compare that to Howe on his 1971 retirement


TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.421.872.17
Assists1.411.762.02
Points1.481.812.03

We see a comparable dominance to Gretzky (moreso for goals). And now Howe isn't top 2 in any category.

Just look at Gretzky now

TypeVs2Vs5Vs10
Goals1.001.211.29
Assists1.571.701.86
Points1.491.591.74


It was always the most vulnerable of the three records. 700 goals used to be unheard of. Now, we have had 8 players do it (plus Matthews).
The goals record was certainly 'vulnerable', for sure. But do you really think the other two (assists, points) have changed much?

Since Gretzky first established a new assist-record in 1987-88, probably 75% (?) of all the NHL games in history have been played, and nobody is remotely close to him. Same with points, basically.
 
I think the fact that he's continuing to score at such a high clip despite his age is a bigger deal than breaking the record. He's top five in goals at age 39 in a season where he suffered a fractured leg. That's ridiculous.

When Ovechkin hit 800 goals, I think it became apparent he would break the record. But to do it scoring at such a high clip so late in his career is very impressive and better than getting there with ~25 goal seasons.
 
The goals record was certainly 'vulnerable', for sure. But do you really think the other two (assists, points) have changed much?

Since Gretzky first established a new assist-record in 1987-88, probably 75% (?) of all the NHL games in history have been played, and nobody is remotely close to him. Same with points, basically.
No one has got close, but the pack has certainly tightened quite a bit.

1000 assists used to be extremely rare. Gretzky was the second to do it. Now 14 guys have done. And 3 potentially 4 more active players will.

McDavid will likely overtake 2nd all time in points and 2nd all time in assists. It's not Gretzky. But it's something.

Gretzky will still have the points and assists record in 25 years. But McDavid might not be second anymore.
 
What does this even mean? (assuming it's not just your usual I-dislike-Gretzky shtick)
I don't have a "usual" "dislike" of Gretzky shtick. I consistently have him on my #1 all time players list. You have me mistaken for someone else I believe.

It means a number of things...one, he wasn't the best goal scorer ever. Two, there's other guys that could have/would have captured the record under even remotely normal circumstances. Which can easily fall under "woulda, coulda, shoulda" and that would be fair...but between rival leagues, cancer, etc. It's one that certainly should have been more fervently challenged at this point.
 
I don't have a "usual" "dislike" of Gretzky shtick. I consistently have him on my #1 all time players list. You have me mistaken for someone else I believe.

It means a number of things...one, he wasn't the best goal scorer ever. Two, there's other guys that could have/would have captured the record under even remotely normal circumstances. Which can easily fall under "woulda, coulda, shoulda" and that would be fair...but between rival leagues, cancer, etc. It's one that certainly should have been more fervently challenged at this point.
Perhaps you could have phrased it better than "It should never have been Gretzky's". I think, with records, the guy who did it the most times should, in fact, have the record.
 

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