How can Depres be viewed as our 7th best D man?

[plaidchuck]

And his trade value would still be pretty high IMO. We might be able to avoid severely overpaying in "futures" for a top-notch player, by including Orpik in a deal. Not sure if Anaheim would be interested or not. EDM for sure would be interested, but then you want to get a real player out of there (at worst, Hemsky), not Paajarvi, etc. Does Orpik + 1st yield one of their top players? I doubt it but stranger things have happened, and Whitney is as good as gone there so the need exists for them to get more physical on D / get someone with real playoff experience.

I don't know. Part of me doesn't like the idea. I want to believe he still has a good playoff run left in him but he's been really bad at times this year, and without an injury excuse or being tired to back it up.

Agreed but it's not like it's just one bad half season, he's been on the decline since the cup win with bad playoffs.

 

[IcedCapp]

Eaton has been playing very well, but it is a damn shame Despres has been a scratch. He's played his way into a top 4 role in my opinion. He has an amazing outlet pass and is physical in the corners.

Does he have the best vision/pass on the blue line?

 

[IcedCapp]

Eaton has looked slow to me in general but whatever works... if he ends up being our 7D in the playoffs I guess we could do worse. If he's in our Top 6 it's a bad sign IMO. He's not the player he was in 2009 and the coaches shouldn't assume that he is / rely on him in that regard.

my biggest issue with Eaton occurred last night:

puck comes to him at the point, the middle of the ice is wide open, Eaton cuts in really well, but just doesn't have the offensive ability to get a shot off. I believe Despres would have.

Does it matter? Well, it depends. Eaton is a good defensive guy. But I don't think Despres is a bad defensive guy. I want Despres offensive skill, creativity, and YES: PHYSICALITY in there, every night.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

It's only a matter of time before Despres becomes one of the defensive leaders on this team. Pens are winning right now so i'm willing to be patient. I don't think it's a coincidence that the pens are 15-4 when Despres plays, and 4-4 when he doesn't.

 

[wgknestrick]

And his trade value would still be pretty high IMO. We might be able to avoid severely overpaying in "futures" for a top-notch player, by including Orpik in a deal. Not sure if Anaheim would be interested or not. EDM for sure would be interested, but then you want to get a real player out of there (at worst, Hemsky), not Paajarvi, etc. Does Orpik + 1st yield one of their top players? I doubt it but stranger things have happened, and Whitney is as good as gone there so the need exists for them to get more physical on D / get someone with real playoff experience.

I don't know. Part of me doesn't like the idea. I want to believe he still has a good playoff run left in him but he's been really bad at times this year, and without an injury excuse or being tired to back it up.

If you are smart and the Pens, you move Orpik now! There are no real setbacks immediately and he should not be in the long-term plans with our current prospects.

Pens have 2 players able to effectively replace him ALREADY ON THE ROSTER. Why not move an injury prone, aging Dman that is quickly growing incapable of providing his bread and butter (physicality) on a daily basis. Now look at his salary.

It's basically selling a Jaguar right before the warranty expires.

 

[SteelFish87*]

Despres is a beast, he should not be scratched

he does make a mistake or two almost every game but overall he has been very impressive

 

[wgknestrick]

It's only a matter of time before Despres becomes one of the defensive leaders on this team. Pens are winning right now so i'm willing to be patient. I don't think it's a coincidence that the pens are 15-4 when Despres plays, and 4-4 when he doesn't.

Excellent point. It also reinforces the GVT/game numbers I have on the players. When Pens scratch Depres in favor of Eaton, they are reducing their expected goal differential by an estimated .26 goals / game.

That adds up quickly in number of wins, which your (with you / without you) record starts to show. Do you have the Pens goals/game data for that? It would be nice to actually see the experienced difference in goal differential with/without him.

Just a list of the games he has been scratched in would be helpful.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Despres should be playing at least 2 of every 3 games, probably 3 out of every 4 or maybe more than that. Get him as much experience as possible during the season. Bortuzzo will still be able to get in some games even if Despres plays 90% of them given injuries and swapping out with Engelland at times.

The funny thing is I fully expect Despres to be an every game player come playoff time when it's best to have a less nebulous lineup so I don't know why they're not getting him as prepared as possible now.

 

[jmelm]

I wonder if him being scratched yesterday had to do with adding Engelland for physicality against the Bruins or if it was because he fell in his own zone that led to the only Islander goal Sunday night.

Yes, this is the only reason. And the fact of the matter is: we have 7 or 8 guys who deserve to play every night (because Eaton has been surprisingly good), but we can only dress 6. So there's going to be a bit of a merry-go-round on defense for the balance of the season. People just need to deal with it and not try to read too much into it, period.

Also, Niskanen is being somewhat criminally underrated around here in general. He has been surprisingly good, and extremely consistent, even when being paired against other teams' best forwards, and even when he's been moved to the right side of late. He played the last shift in the game the other night when we were protecting the lead, and was very reliable and steady. And how about that enormous hit on Marchand last night! He's not a #1 or an all-star, but he is deserving of some props right now.

He's not our 7th-best Dman, but he is the most inexperienced Dman on the roster. It's pretty clear that the coaches are being careful not to throw too much at him at once.

This^. It's pretty simple, and very reasonable. And Despres is getting better and better, so I'm not seeing any downside or seeing it adversely affect his game. I actually think they're doing a great job with Simon. If anyone is getting the short end of the stick it's Bortuzzo.

 

[wgknestrick]

Yes, this is the only reason. And the fact of the matter is: we have 7 or 8 guys who deserve to play every night (because Eaton has been surprisingly good), but we can only dress 6. So there's going to be a bit of a merry-go-round on defense for the balance of the season. People just need to deal with it and not try to read too much into it, period.

Also, Niskanen is being somewhat criminally underrated around here in general. He has been surprisingly good, and extremely consistent, even when being paired against other teams' best forwards, and even when he's been moved to the right side of late. He played the last shift in the game the other night when we were protecting the lead, and was very reliable and steady. And how about that enormous hit on Marchand last night! He's not a #1 or an all-star, but he is deserving of some props right now.
.

I am skeptical about your statement on Niskanen. He has the highest GAA/60min of any D man and the lowest GF/60min. Worst in both offense and defense this year compared to Dmen. I don't expect him to be great in either, but certainly not last in both. That doesn't give much to support your claim. He is only good in Corsi, but seems to allow high % shots against. IE Goligoski as a comparable, but without all the offense. As I said in my above post, there just isn't much separating him from the pack of the bottom 4 guys behind the "big 3".

Regardless of what he does or how he looks, the Pens aren't outscoring the opposition while he's on the ice. Isn't that all that matters? I will always be skeptical of awarding a spot to the defender with the worst +- (especially on a good team). We will see if his positive corsi turns his +- around over time. It's possible.

I also think there are only 6 who deserve to play any night.....the 6 best on this team.

 

[jmelm]

I am skeptical about your statement on Niskanen. He has the highest GAA/60min of any D man and the lowest GF/60min. Worst in both offense and defense this year compared to Dmen. I don't expect him to be great in either, but certainly not last in both. That doesn't give much to support your claim. He is only good in Corsi, but seems to allow high % shots against. IE Goligoski as a comparable, but without all the offense.

Regardless of what he does or how he looks, the Pens aren't outscoring the opposition while he's on the ice. Isn't that all that matters? I will always be skeptical of awarding a spot to the defender with the worst +- (especially on a good team).

I also think there are only 6 who deserve to play any night.....the 6 best on this team.

Whatever, man. I don't mean any disrespect, but I don't really care about those stats. I care about what I see when I watch this player play, and how he performs in key situations he is put in (was great against Toronto the other night against Kessel for example, was great the other night when he was out there in the last minute, was very steady last night and stepped up with a great hit on one of the leagues more physical/agitating players in Marchand).


Also, you have to look at where guys are at in their careers. Martin is in his primeof his career and should be able to sustain his play for a while longer. Brooks is still pretty solid, but looks to be on the downside. Letang is just WAY ahead of the curve for someone of his age, which is just scary-good. And Niskanen: well, I don't ever believe Nisky is going to be a top-pairing Dman. But he has gotten better and better over the last couple years since he's been here, and he's young enough that we know his best years are ahead of him.


I see Nisky as a guy who will play out this year, and probably start next year with us and maybe even get re-signed. I do see him being traded eventually and don't see him as part of our elite "core" moving forward, but he IS going to improve. The guy is 25. Some people don't really appreciate the usual trajectory of development for Dmen, but thankfully GMs and scouts do. If I'm a scout and I'm watching Nisky play, I am pleasantly surprised with what I see and with his consistency. And on a lesser team where he would get more PP time (and he always seems to get his shots on net), he would put up bigger numbers. He's a great trade asset, whenever we choose to move him. Pretty good for a throw-in/reclammation project.

 

[Nietzsche Zone Play]

wgknestrick - if you still have your Pens D up on behindthenet, go ahead and sort the TOI/60 column and you'll see why (a) Bortuzzo couldn't be expected to just take over for Orpik right now and (b) Despres isn't really a top 4 defender yet. these guys are being put in a position to succeed, and the team is doing it over a longer period of time to help ease them in. as someone else said, you want Despres to have to work for every game/shift and not have things handed to him.

I think he'll be in the lineup consistently come playoff time, which is all I care about - especially when the team is winning now. it seems clear to me as well that they are trying all possible combos prior to the deadline to see what they need to go out and get. so far, Eaton looks good and may show Shero that they need a guy like him (only better). since he was essentially free, I don't mind it.

Despres, like Bennett, will be full time next year (if they aren't already) and playing big roles, and I think due to how they're being handled they will both succeed.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

I hope people aren't going by those stats this rigidly most of the time. Most of them don't tell nearly the whole story.

 

[Shady Machine]

Sounds like whining and crying to me. See Exibit A: Beau Bennett. He seems to have found a way to stay in the line-up. Maybe Tangradi and Strait just weren't good enough to crack the line-up here.

I still believe that all of this shuffling who plays on D is for the purposes of further evaluation for a trade. We have Despres who can play now. Dumoulin will be ready next year, and maybe even Morrow and Harrington. I still believe at least 1 guy gets moved, and I think RS wants to further evaluate the 8 guys on the roster now to see who he can and can't move.

I generally agree. However, one could argue that Bennett is in the lineup because we literally have no one else to put in that spot other than other young players (Jeffrey, had Boychuk and Tangradi). With Despres, Strait, and Bort, we had veteran guys to put in their place. Overall though, I think DB will give prospects who prove themselves the opportunity to play. He just prefers veterans (as do most other NHL coaches).

 

[Nietzsche Zone Play]

basically my opinion comes down to thinking that "if player x looks really good - especially playing in his first 50 NHL games - then the coach is doing a very good job." I don't see how the opposite can be true. I mean, I can, but I'm not one of those fans who pretends to have a better knowledge/feel for his team than the guy getting paid to do the job.

 

[Shady Machine]

I hope people aren't going by those stats this rigidly most of the time. Most of them don't tell nearly the whole story.

A few seem to be.

 

[wej20]

Eaton's been good but like mentioned he's slow and I would stick mainly with Niskanen - Letang, Orpik - Martin and Despres - Engelland/Bortuzzo/Eaton maybe Niskanen will be traded at the deadline and they we'll end up with Despres - Letang, Orpik - Martin and Eaton/Bortuzzo - Engelland.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I still believe that all of this shuffling who plays on D is for the purposes of further evaluation for a trade. We have Despres who can play now. Dumoulin will be ready next year, and maybe even Morrow and Harrington. I still believe at least 1 guy gets moved, and I think RS wants to further evaluate the 8 guys on the roster now to see who he can and can't move.

If that's the case, then shouldn't it be Bortuzzo and Despres rotating in and out of the line up to showcase both of those guys, not Eaton? In order for the Pens to get the most value for them, other clubs are going to have to see how Bortuzzo and Despres play. They can't do that if both guys are in the press box in favor of Eaton.

 

[Nietzsche Zone Play]

If that's the case, then shouldn't it be Bortuzzo and Despres rotating in and out of the line up to showcase both of those guys, not Eaton? In order for the Pens to get the most value for them, other clubs are going to have to see how Bortuzzo and Despres play. They can't do that if both guys are in the press box in favor of Eaton.

not if they intend to hold onto Bortuzzo and Despres... (which is my guess)

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

not if they intend to hold onto Bortuzzo and Despres... (which is my guess)

So who are they showcasing? Mark Eaton?

 

[wgknestrick]

Whatever, man. I don't mean any disrespect, but I don't really care about those stats. I care about what I see when I watch this player play, and how he performs in key situations he is put in (was great against Toronto the other night against Kessel for example, was great the other night when he was out there in the last minute, was very steady last night and stepped up with a great hit on one of the leagues more physical/agitating players in Marchand).


Also, you have to look at where guys are at in their careers. Martin is in his primeof his career and should be able to sustain his play for a while longer. Brooks is still pretty solid, but looks to be on the downside. Letang is just WAY ahead of the curve for someone of his age, which is just scary-good. And Niskanen: well, I don't ever believe Nisky is going to be a top-pairing Dman. But he has gotten better and better over the last couple years since he's been here, and he's young enough that we know his best years are ahead of him.


I see Nisky as a guy who will play out this year, and probably start next year with us and maybe even get re-signed. I do see him being traded eventually and don't see him as part of our elite "core" moving forward, but he IS going to improve. The guy is 25. Some people don't really appreciate the usual trajectory of development for Dmen, but thankfully GMs and scouts do. If I'm a scout and I'm watching Nisky play, I am pleasantly surprised with what I see and with his consistency. And on a lesser team where he would get more PP time (and he always seems to get his shots on net), he would put up bigger numbers. He's a great trade asset, whenever we choose to move him. Pretty good for a throw-in/reclammation project.

None taken. Think of it like this.

We've all seen the booths at amusement parks/fairs where you can pay someone to "guess" your weight (or age) and win a prize if they guess wrong. They look at you and offer up their best guess as to how much you weigh, right? (Think of these guys as scouts). They can get close, but can't definitively tell you exactly how much someone weighs. How accurate would they be if you brought 2 similarly sized people to them and had them guess who weighed more? Do you think they would ever do much better than 50% (pure guess)?

So, after they guess, you step on a scale and it tells everyone (in a definitive number) what you actually weigh. It measures something. It is the equivalent to a stat. You win or lose based on what the scale measures.

Would you ever risk your money if I ran a similar game but had you step on the scale before I told you how much you weighed? If you were smart, you wouldn't. I have no "chance" to be wrong. This is why using stats, mainly advanced stats, are vastly more advantageous in making decisions. They always split the difference in close calls.

Stats help you measure something, not guess (educated or not) at it.

It is very easy to compare numbers and tell which is better. How do you compare adjectives and opinions from different scouts of different events? I just think it is much more time consuming and more error prone to make decisions based on "consensus" opinion without data.

Also note that Nisky's hit did absolutely nothing to help the Pens win that game. It was great to watch and see him hit a deserving player, but did the Pens win because of that? Did that event directly contribute to a goal prevented / scored? I think it is a great highlight of how the eyes can mislead you into remembering things that aren't really important. Hits and fights are the best examples of memorable events that really have no bearing to the outcome of the game.

 

[Shady Machine]

None taken. Think of it like this.

We've all seen the booths at amusement parks/fairs where you can pay someone to "guess" your weight (or age) and win a prize if they guess wrong. They look at you and offer up their best guess as to how much you weigh, right? (Think of these guys as scouts). They can get close, but can't definitively tell you exactly how much someone weighs. How accurate would they be if you brought 2 similarly sized people to them and had them guess who weighed more? Do you think they would ever do much better than 50% (pure guess)?

So, after they guess, you step on a scale and it tells everyone (in a definitive number) what you actually weigh. It measures something. It is the equivalent to a stat. You win or lose based on what the scale measures.

Would you ever risk your money if I ran a similar game but had you step on the scale before I told you how much you weighed? If you were smart, you wouldn't. I have no "chance" to be wrong.

Stats help you measure something, not guess at it.

It is very easy to compare numbers and tell which is better. How do you compare adjectives and opinions from different scouts of different events? I just think it is much more time consuming and more error prone to make decisions based on "consensus" opinion without data.

This is such a horrible analogy to hockey stats (but I'm glad you mentioned it because it shows how your view on stats is misguided). Weight is a fact and there are no other outside variables that influence that number other than how much you weigh. Evaluating who is heavier can be 100% proven, without a shadow of a doubt, by your weight. Using advanced stats to determine who is better at hockey is a TOTALLY different animal. There are so many other variables that are at play here that even if you try to adjust for these other things, you still cannot prove who is better. There are 11 other players on the ice that play the game and influence your stats. There are different teams, systems, line combos, etc. Find me a stat that determines how Pascal Dupuis would perform (and guarantee it) playing on the Flames and how Iginla would do on the Pens. You are making educated guesses based on the stats you have and nothing else.

I want to reiterate that I think advanced hockey stats are useful. However, when you look at the stats and say "this guy is better than that guy simply because these statistics tell me that" then you are misusing them.

 

[wgknestrick]

So who are they showcasing? Mark Eaton?

Why would they be "showcasing" a player who was freely available to any team as an unsigned UFA during this season?

If a team was interested in Eaton, wouldn't they just sign him freely like the Pens did? Do the Pens think they are "fixing up a junker" to flip to another team by just giving him minutes?

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Because Byslma doesn't coach based on advanced statistics, that's why.

He doesn't coach based on performance either.

 

[MrBurghundy]

He doesn't coach based on performance either.

Hiyoooooo!