How aggressive should the Leafs be at the deadline? New Poll Option Added

[ToneDog]

As long as they get a 2C with term I don’t care what it costs because it’ll be a long term investment. Our window is now.

I don't want to give up Cowan. It would probably be Minten+ going the other way.

 

[kevsh]

On one hand, as has been noted this year is as "easy" as it's ever been. On the other, the Leafs are well established chokers so "easy" just means more painful if they fail again.

If you take that angle out of it and just evaluate the team like any other then they're a 3C/depth scoring away from being a real threat.

- Stolarz when healthy is fantastic with Woll able to step in if needed.
- The blueline is legit. Not "best in the league" but good enough for a deep run.
- They have the stars (again, minus their history of not stepping up)
- The only real weakness: The bottom 6 (can't score) & a competent PP

So being realistic, if I'm Treliving I make my move on a 3C with term and leave it at that. If they do something impressive this post-season then you've got the pitch for Marner & JT to re-sign (Hey, we all know that's the MLSE plan so I'm just running with it).

Then in the off-season plan like next season we're going in as Cup favourites. But I simply have to see them do something (win 2+ rounds to be precise) before anything close to "all in". And I don't believe this is a one-year window as almost everyone outside Mitch/JT are signed or are RFAs; This group will be around for another year at least.

 

[Evilhomer]

On one hand, as has been noted this year is as "easy" as it's ever been. On the other, the Leafs are well established chokers so "easy" just means more painful if they fail again.

If you take that angle out of it and just evaluate the team like any other then they're a 3C/depth scoring away from being a real threat.

- Stolarz when healthy is fantastic with Woll able to step in if needed.
- The blueline is legit. Not "best in the league" but good enough for a deep run.
- They have the stars (again, minus their history of not stepping up)
- The only real weakness: The bottom 6 (can't score) & a competent PP

So being realistic, if I'm Treliving I make my move on a 3C with term and leave it at that. If they do something impressive this post-season then you've got the pitch for Marner & JT to re-sign (Hey, we all know that's the MLSE plan so I'm just running with it).

Then in the off-season plan like next season we're going in as Cup favourites. But I simply have to see them do something (win 2+ rounds to be precise) before anything close to "all in". And I don't believe this is a one-year window as almost everyone outside Mitch/JT are signed or are RFAs; This group will be around for another year at least.

I think if the Leafs win the second round, they will win the Cup. The team they play in the second round (presumably Florida or Tampa) will likely be a more difficult opponent than they will face in the conference or Cup finals.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Too dangerous. Fans would revolt if Matthews Marner Nylander JT resulted in 1 series win. It would be a catastrophe

Fans haven't revolted after one series win in six years with those four. Why a catastrophe this time?

 

[TheGreenTBer]

You know what?

I have been vocal in the past about how much I hate loading up at the deadline. It was clearly a waste of assets when Dubas was in charge as evident in the postseason, and we have a skin-deep roster and prospect pool with no success to show for it as a result. I hate rentals, most of the time; it's often (but not always) a sign of "we didn't prepare well enough in the offseason to fill the holes in our team" or something. Since winning the Cup also involves quite a bit of luck, it's usually a fool's errand to sell your soul for a year, and cap teams always need cheap, ELC talent (best acquired through the draft, obviously) to plug holes that are created when players they can no longer afford leave in free agency.

This year, they are getting better goaltending and generally playing a style more conducive to the postseason. They need to address the 3rd line center issue and find a good shot from the point on the PP so that teams are forced to give guys like #34 more space (this is so badly needed because while guys like Rielly can move the puck you can play off him since he's no real threat to shoot.) Pending Auston's health, this team has a shot of doing something if, and only if, the core finally understands and accepts what it takes to win and delivers like they hypothetically could. I personally am not holding my breath because I don't think these guys truly get it, but reading nothing but negativity all the time is exhausting so I'm attempting to be constructive here.

If, after loading up, the Leafs *still* lose in the 1st round of the playoffs then there's no need to fret in the first place because...that's it, that's the end. There's nothing further that could be done with the team's existing structure and really the whole entire thing would need to be nuked from orbit, starting with a removal of Shanahan and letting Marner and Tavares either sign elsewhere or have their rights traded if possible to recoup a tiny something. If we load up at the deadline and they still bow out early, they'll truly *never, ever* get it and it's time to turn the page, assuming that point hasn't already occurred. Mitch and JT are on expiring contracts, either you win this year or you blow up the core, there is no in-between, you've given the big 4 more than enough chances at that point and you have to move on as urgently and aggressively as possible. If they lose in the 1st round yet again after loading up then you unequivocally need more than a retool, you need a full rebuild. Period.

This year is your best shot. Kill or be killed.

 

[ITM]

I think if the Leafs win the second round, they will win the Cup. The team they play in the second round (presumably Florida or Tampa) will likely be a more difficult opponent than they will face in the conference or Cup finals.

I wouldn't take that to the bank; I think its more common than not that championship teams learn to win in painful graduation. I think success this year means a Conference Final and the likelihood that we lose there. Then after the dust settles, July 1st 2025 is the end of our core's beginning and on towards an appearance in the Final for two to three years at best. And then its the end.

For me I don't know what would be more painful, continuing to lose and not reaching a meaningful final, or losing by one goal in Game 7 for the Cup as the Oilers (and their fans) recently experienced.

Little bit of TML PTSD, I confess.

 

[thewave]

Fans haven't revolted after one series win in six years with those four. Why a catastrophe this time?

Because two of the four may be lost for nothing.

 

[Beneven Stanciano]

team is a paper tiger, I would move a piece of the 4 or Rielly only. Nothing will change until then. Trade Mitch Marner for Tom Wilson.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Because two of the four may be lost for nothing.

I think it's highly unlikely that JT leaves, and if Mitch leaves the 'nothing' will be the $12-15M we don't pay him.

But yes, if Mitch leaves there are some posters who would consider it a catastrophe.

 

[nuck]

Because two of the four may be lost for nothing.

They couldn't let Willie go for what they considered a sub par return so I can't see them letting Mitch go for zero. It seems too obvious to keep the stars you have and worry about the money later which they have been dealing with since adding JT.

But $22M in cap space and you still have Willie and AM isn't exactly starting from scratch either. Brock Boeser had as many points in the playoffs last year as the big 4 combined. Duchene produces as well post season as the Leafs era Tavares and he is earning $3M this year. Or they could trade for Kadri without retention and not get beaten up on the price. Plenty of options when you have money to spend and aren't hopelessly attached to a few players.. I don't expect it but if they have another early post season who knows what Shanny's replacement might do?

 

[mydnyte]

most of the C's being named are well past their prime, and Minten is already a better player than the likes of Gourde etc. The Leafs really need a good skating puck moving RHD, that is the main need.
If they can get a young and 'good' RH C then you can consider moving Cowen or other assets, but for 30+ year old rentals, no way, I wouldnt even move a 1st for Nelson for example.

 

[arso40]

most of the C's being named are well past their prime, and Minten is already a better player than the likes of Gourde etc. The Leafs really need a good skating puck moving RHD, that is the main need.
If they can get a young and 'good' RH C then you can consider moving Cowen or other assets, but for 30+ year old rentals, no way, I wouldnt even move a 1st for Nelson for example.

Exactly we need a top 4 rhd as priority

 

[REALTALK81]

Exactly we need a top 4 rhd as priority

Top 4 D is probably the most expensive piece to get. Not sure if any are on the market (Pulock?) Might be easier to get another solid LD to play with Tanev and put McCabe on the right side like last year when he played with Benoit.

 

[Menzinger]

Nobody whose realistically available at this year's tdl is going to be worth trading Cowen for, or even Minten. No other team trades their top prospects for rentals, and neither will the Leafs.

Don't get too attached to any draft picks over the next couple seasons though

 

[Racer88]

Look at it this way. Give Marner his 13 million. This season Marner made 10 million and JT got 11 million for a total of 21 million. Minus Marners 13 million from the 21 and you still get 8 million. Sign JT for 6 million and you still have 2 million to play with. And you still have Marner and JT. Or, let JT walk. There are plenty of young centres out there that can be had for 6 to 7 million.

That looks great from a simple numbers equation however unless they can do something in the playoffs this year we will still be stuck the same failing core.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

There is no f***ing chance in hell that Ottawa is going to trade Tkachuk to Toronto. Like not even a little bit.

Marner for Tkachuk might do it. Especially of both might want to leave for greener pastures. You know how Tkachuk's can be.. lmao

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Marner for Tkachuk might do it. Especially of both might want to leave for greener pastures. You know how Tkachuk's can be.. lmao

For one, Mitch has a NMC and the chances of him waiving it for Ottawa are very likely nil. Secondly, Ottawa is not going to trade their captain to their most hated rival, it's just not going to happen. That's just the start of the reasons why this isn't realistic.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

If possible I would want to follow the Vegas script, get a younger guy you can extend who fills out the 2nd tier well like the Barbashev trade they made, or go for a big splash for a guy with term on a team who's fortunes have changed like the Hertl trade.

I'm not interested in an aged vet on an expiring deal like many of the names thrown around.
If you are going to trade one of the few decent prospects we have and a pick it better be following one of the vegas type deals not Foligno, O'Reilly approach.

Beyond that, if you can clear out some guys with no future here for better expiring depth like a Holmberg/Steeves/Dewar type for Oskar Sundqvist type of deal I am all for that as well.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

For one, Mitch has a NMC and the chances of him waiving it for Ottawa are very likely nil. Secondly, Ottawa is not going to trade their captain to their most hated rival, it's just not going to happen. That's just the start of the reasons why this isn't realistic.

Thanks tips. I understand the contract limitations. Settle down.

Reread. My first post acknowledged that it was a pipe dream, ending it with "a fella can dream, tho". Since that, you've gone on a tirade about it being unrealistic. Ain't nobody talking about realistic. We're on a message board hopelessly wishing for assets we don't have.

Anyway - our teams' leadership needs a SPINE, is the actual point being made. Until they develop one (unlikely) or acquire one (also unlikely), this team is destined to repeat.

 

[Evilhomer]

It sounds like Noah Dobson may have fallen out of favour with the Islanders, especially considering what his salary demands will likely be. He would fill a need here, and I suspect the acquisition cost would not be nearly as much as people think because of the salary issue. That said, that same salary issue would be a challenge for the Leafs next season, as Dobson is likely looking at $7+ per season.