AlfiesHair
Registered User
- Jul 7, 2020
- 18
- 49
I think Luongo's time is closer than some may think. He has a great balance of peak and consistency that I'm not sure any of his contemporaries had.
First lets talk peak, there are two seasons in my eye to pick from.
Peak #1 - 2003-04 w/Florida Panthers (Swimming Upstream)
Played 72 games and managed to keep a .931 SV% (3rd after Roloson [48GP/.933SV%] and Kiprusoff [38GP/.933SV%]) While there are some issues with GSAA it is definitely of note that he had a league leading 48.42 GSAA (according to HR) which was nearly double second place (Dwayne Roloson with 28.82).
He did all this with a heavy workload while on a non-playoff, pretty crappy Panthers team. This team somehow went through three different bench bosses this season so he never got consistent defensive help from coaching. His defense sucked and allowed the most shots on goal in the whole league. In games where he had lower than a .935 SV%, the Panthers went 2-28-5-2. He needed to steal every win they had and even then, his efforts sometimes weren't enough. His backup Steve Shields had a .879 SV% in 16GP this season, .052% points below Lu. The Panthers finished 24th overall, probably only that high due to Lu's work this year.
Despite not making the playoffs he still finished third in Vezina votes (behind a fairly average season statistically from Brodeur and a 38 game season from Kiprusoff). I think its safe to say if Lu got any help in front of him and made the playoffs he probably would have easily won the Vezina with those numbers and had a considerable Hart case too (he finished 6th, 3rd in goalies behind Brodeur and Kipper).
I would argue this was his greatest statistical regular season but it happened to be on possibly the worst team he ever played for in his NHL career. From a GSAA perspective, this is one of the greatest regular seasons by a goalie ever when looking at distance between 1st and 2nd place. How many other goalies have had these kind of all time seasons on a non-playoff team? How much more credit would Lu get if they made playoffs?
Peak #2 - 2006-07 v/Vancouver Canucks (Consistent Dominance)
His first season in Vancouver. Puts up a .921 SV% (good for second for goalies who played more than half their team's games, only after Brodeur's .922) in 76 games. Second to Brodeur's 35.76 GSAA with 34.53, far far ahead of third place - these two were by themselves this year.
Finishes closely behind Brodeur in Vezina voting, a little further behind him in All Star voting, but finishes over him in Hart voting by a slim margin which is good enough for 2nd in the league, clearly voters thought he was the most valuable player on his team by far. I would say he has a case again this year for being better than Brodeur after you consider the defensive systems the Devils still had in place, but it's close.
Then he gets his first shot at postseason hockey. Does he buckle under the pressure? Hell no. He puts up a .950 SV% against a very evenly paired Dallas team in a seven game goalie duel with Marty Turco (who put up a .952, what a clinic from these two). Vancouver falls to Anaheim in round two in five games but Lu still stands tall with a .930 SV%, although his SV% kind of carried by two phenomenal games. In front of him Vancouver only puts up 8 goals in five games while he lets in 13. You could say he was out goalied by Giguere who put up a .948 SV% but this series was definitely closer than it may seem, three of the five games ended in OT and again, Canucks forwards couldn't score.
Overall probably his second best regular season and his best playoffs from a statistical standpoint. His only regular season rival in Brodeur also gets bounced in the second round with worse overall stats. Luongo is the best goalie in the world this season hands down.
Thoughts: I think Luongo has an argument to steal two of Brodeur's Vezinas. His 2004 season is certainly statistically superior and I also think his 2007 season is sliiiiightly better than Brodeurs - Hart Trophy voters seem to agree with me too.
If he has one or two Vezina Trophies to his name, how do we look at him differently?
CONSISTENCY
Maybe this was Luongo's greatest strength. Excluding his 20 yr old rookie season and his 39 year old final season, he only fell below average in SV% once in that 17 year span (2013 - his .907 was below the league avg of .912) - and most of the time he was WAAAY over.
I know SV% stats aren't perfect, but they're the best we got pre-GSAx.
Of notable retired goalies who hit their primes after 2000 and may come up for discussion, here is how this consistency compares.
Percentage of Full Seasons With Above Average SV%
1. Rask - 100% (12/12)
2. Luongo - 84% (16/19)
3. Lundqvist - 80% (12/15)
4. Thomas - 75% (6/8)
5. Holtby - 70% (7/10)
6. Fleury - 65% (13/20)
7. Nabokov - 64% (9/14)
8. Brodeur post 2000 - 64% (9/14)
9. Quick - 59% (10/17)
10. Price - 57% (8/14)
11. Kiprusoff - 55% (6/11)
12. Rinne - 54% (7/13)
This isn't the perfect stat to analyze, but I just wanted to make the point that this kind of consistency is very hard to get in this era - even from the world's best. Apart from Rask looking incredibly impressive, you have to take away that Luongo looks amazing compared to his peers.
But lets see the quality of these seasons, with this same group, lets do top 10 SV% and GSAA appearances.
Top 10 SV% Appearances (HR)
1. Luongo - 10
2. Lundqvist - 7
3. Kiprusoff - 5
3. Price - 5
3. Rinne - 5
6. Thomas - 4
6. Rask - 4
6. Fleury - 4
6. Nabokov - 4
10. Holtby - 3
11. Brodeur post 2000 - 2
12. Quick - 1
Luongo clears everyone significantly despite being arguably the biggest workhorse on the list. For players post 1967, he's tied for third with Billy Smith in this metric falling behind only Roy (15) and Hasek (11).
Top 10 GSAA Appearances (HR)
1. Luongo - 11
2. Lundqvist - 9
3. Thomas - 5
3. Rask - 5
3. Price - 5
3. Kiprusoff - 5
7. Brodeur post 2000 - 4
7. Rinne - 4
7. Nabokov - 4
10. Holtby - 3
10. Fleury - 3
12. Quick - 2
Luongo and Lundqvist both stand far above the rest, but Luongo clears again. His 11 appearances are tied with Hasek while behind only Roy (16) and Esposito (12).
Thoughts: Statistically, Luongo is all time by these metrics. Yes, Vancouver was great defensively but don't forget that Lu played on the 2000s Panthers for half his prime - that's gotta count for something.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I know there are questions with Luongo's playoffs (which deserves its own post) but I personally don't think his playoffs are bad - just not extraordinary.
His regular season peak is only clearly beaten by Price and Parent and he is probably in the same realm as Benedict, Vasilevskiy, and maaaaybe Worters.
In terms of regular season consistency at a high level, I think he clears everyone. Parent, Price, Vasilevskiy, Worters, and Broda all had their off seasons. Bower, Smith, Benedict, and Thompson were all consistent but not at as high a level as Lu (Holecek I'd have to do more research).
Very strong peak, very strong consistency, very strong longevity, good playoffs, good award voting. I think Bobby Lu fits in right at the top of the available goalies here. In my head, he's easily top three. He's maybe the only goalie available to me without a big hole in his resume.
First lets talk peak, there are two seasons in my eye to pick from.
Peak #1 - 2003-04 w/Florida Panthers (Swimming Upstream)
Played 72 games and managed to keep a .931 SV% (3rd after Roloson [48GP/.933SV%] and Kiprusoff [38GP/.933SV%]) While there are some issues with GSAA it is definitely of note that he had a league leading 48.42 GSAA (according to HR) which was nearly double second place (Dwayne Roloson with 28.82).
He did all this with a heavy workload while on a non-playoff, pretty crappy Panthers team. This team somehow went through three different bench bosses this season so he never got consistent defensive help from coaching. His defense sucked and allowed the most shots on goal in the whole league. In games where he had lower than a .935 SV%, the Panthers went 2-28-5-2. He needed to steal every win they had and even then, his efforts sometimes weren't enough. His backup Steve Shields had a .879 SV% in 16GP this season, .052% points below Lu. The Panthers finished 24th overall, probably only that high due to Lu's work this year.
Despite not making the playoffs he still finished third in Vezina votes (behind a fairly average season statistically from Brodeur and a 38 game season from Kiprusoff). I think its safe to say if Lu got any help in front of him and made the playoffs he probably would have easily won the Vezina with those numbers and had a considerable Hart case too (he finished 6th, 3rd in goalies behind Brodeur and Kipper).
I would argue this was his greatest statistical regular season but it happened to be on possibly the worst team he ever played for in his NHL career. From a GSAA perspective, this is one of the greatest regular seasons by a goalie ever when looking at distance between 1st and 2nd place. How many other goalies have had these kind of all time seasons on a non-playoff team? How much more credit would Lu get if they made playoffs?
Peak #2 - 2006-07 v/Vancouver Canucks (Consistent Dominance)
His first season in Vancouver. Puts up a .921 SV% (good for second for goalies who played more than half their team's games, only after Brodeur's .922) in 76 games. Second to Brodeur's 35.76 GSAA with 34.53, far far ahead of third place - these two were by themselves this year.
Finishes closely behind Brodeur in Vezina voting, a little further behind him in All Star voting, but finishes over him in Hart voting by a slim margin which is good enough for 2nd in the league, clearly voters thought he was the most valuable player on his team by far. I would say he has a case again this year for being better than Brodeur after you consider the defensive systems the Devils still had in place, but it's close.
Then he gets his first shot at postseason hockey. Does he buckle under the pressure? Hell no. He puts up a .950 SV% against a very evenly paired Dallas team in a seven game goalie duel with Marty Turco (who put up a .952, what a clinic from these two). Vancouver falls to Anaheim in round two in five games but Lu still stands tall with a .930 SV%, although his SV% kind of carried by two phenomenal games. In front of him Vancouver only puts up 8 goals in five games while he lets in 13. You could say he was out goalied by Giguere who put up a .948 SV% but this series was definitely closer than it may seem, three of the five games ended in OT and again, Canucks forwards couldn't score.
Overall probably his second best regular season and his best playoffs from a statistical standpoint. His only regular season rival in Brodeur also gets bounced in the second round with worse overall stats. Luongo is the best goalie in the world this season hands down.
Thoughts: I think Luongo has an argument to steal two of Brodeur's Vezinas. His 2004 season is certainly statistically superior and I also think his 2007 season is sliiiiightly better than Brodeurs - Hart Trophy voters seem to agree with me too.
If he has one or two Vezina Trophies to his name, how do we look at him differently?
CONSISTENCY
Maybe this was Luongo's greatest strength. Excluding his 20 yr old rookie season and his 39 year old final season, he only fell below average in SV% once in that 17 year span (2013 - his .907 was below the league avg of .912) - and most of the time he was WAAAY over.
I know SV% stats aren't perfect, but they're the best we got pre-GSAx.
Of notable retired goalies who hit their primes after 2000 and may come up for discussion, here is how this consistency compares.
Percentage of Full Seasons With Above Average SV%
1. Rask - 100% (12/12)
2. Luongo - 84% (16/19)
3. Lundqvist - 80% (12/15)
4. Thomas - 75% (6/8)
5. Holtby - 70% (7/10)
6. Fleury - 65% (13/20)
7. Nabokov - 64% (9/14)
8. Brodeur post 2000 - 64% (9/14)
9. Quick - 59% (10/17)
10. Price - 57% (8/14)
11. Kiprusoff - 55% (6/11)
12. Rinne - 54% (7/13)
This isn't the perfect stat to analyze, but I just wanted to make the point that this kind of consistency is very hard to get in this era - even from the world's best. Apart from Rask looking incredibly impressive, you have to take away that Luongo looks amazing compared to his peers.
But lets see the quality of these seasons, with this same group, lets do top 10 SV% and GSAA appearances.
Top 10 SV% Appearances (HR)
1. Luongo - 10
2. Lundqvist - 7
3. Kiprusoff - 5
3. Price - 5
3. Rinne - 5
6. Thomas - 4
6. Rask - 4
6. Fleury - 4
6. Nabokov - 4
10. Holtby - 3
11. Brodeur post 2000 - 2
12. Quick - 1
Luongo clears everyone significantly despite being arguably the biggest workhorse on the list. For players post 1967, he's tied for third with Billy Smith in this metric falling behind only Roy (15) and Hasek (11).
Top 10 GSAA Appearances (HR)
1. Luongo - 11
2. Lundqvist - 9
3. Thomas - 5
3. Rask - 5
3. Price - 5
3. Kiprusoff - 5
7. Brodeur post 2000 - 4
7. Rinne - 4
7. Nabokov - 4
10. Holtby - 3
10. Fleury - 3
12. Quick - 2
Luongo and Lundqvist both stand far above the rest, but Luongo clears again. His 11 appearances are tied with Hasek while behind only Roy (16) and Esposito (12).
Thoughts: Statistically, Luongo is all time by these metrics. Yes, Vancouver was great defensively but don't forget that Lu played on the 2000s Panthers for half his prime - that's gotta count for something.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I know there are questions with Luongo's playoffs (which deserves its own post) but I personally don't think his playoffs are bad - just not extraordinary.
His regular season peak is only clearly beaten by Price and Parent and he is probably in the same realm as Benedict, Vasilevskiy, and maaaaybe Worters.
In terms of regular season consistency at a high level, I think he clears everyone. Parent, Price, Vasilevskiy, Worters, and Broda all had their off seasons. Bower, Smith, Benedict, and Thompson were all consistent but not at as high a level as Lu (Holecek I'd have to do more research).
Very strong peak, very strong consistency, very strong longevity, good playoffs, good award voting. I think Bobby Lu fits in right at the top of the available goalies here. In my head, he's easily top three. He's maybe the only goalie available to me without a big hole in his resume.
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