Prospect Info: HFCBJ 2022 Summer Prospect Rankings: #5

[stevo61]

Except is usually does.

The 3rd word in your sentence is the key. Its obviously why the draft exists, you try to project the best future based on the data you have. Sometimes players get missed or simply develop later. Blankenburg clearly appears to be a player who developed later and its just a matter of trying to figure out what his actual upside is

 

[majormajor]

Except is usually does.

I think that misses the point. It's not that draft picks aren't great and give you the best odds of getting talent among 18 year olds, but at some point you have to re-evaluate talent and forget about draft position. Using draft rankings to evaluate older prospects is especially silly.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Just as you count what players did in the AHL or KHL, then you should also count what Blankenburg did at Michigan. He was a top pair D and team captain on the most talented college team ever. There would have been a ton of buzz about teams trying to sign him, he would have been a big prize, but most folks just assumed that he couldn't play in the NHL at that size. What the 7 games did is put a dent in that theory.

How old is Foudy compared to Blankenburg ? AHL is much tougher competition than ncaa hockey. My point was , after the playoff series against Pittsburgh , many here had Carlsson as one of our top prospects . Blankenburg has had much more time to develop, couple years makes a big difference .

 

[Hello Johnny]

Ceulemans add Foudy

 

[tunnelvision]

Add Voronkov

 

[Doggy]

Yes.. which was my point .. Blankenburg played played 7 meaningless games at end of season, and many are high on him.. You can’t remember how high everyone was with Carlsson, after stepping in 5 games and looking good in the playoffs and being praised by Torts ? That was point I was making . We all have different opinions , I just don’t remotely think he’s one of our top 8 prospects right now… For example Tarasov was pretty dominant in a handful of starts, Foudy is 22, been injured and Covid season, but near a point per game in AHL past 2 seasons . I need to see more of Blankenburg , other than 7 meaningless games out of the playoff race, late in the season , from an undrafted player , especially with him being 24 already .

Gabriel Carlsson Quietly Impressing Blue Jackets - The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

One of the strengths of the Columbus Blue Jackets is their depth on the blue line. Learn how rookie Gabriel Carlsson is making a good impression.

thehockeywriters.com

Personally I don't recall ever being impressed at all with Carlsson. Zero, zilch, nada. I remember wondering why the heck Torts was messing with the defensive pairings at the end of the season and that Carlsson did nothing to deserve playoff games.

You linked to an article where Torts basically said he's big, takes up a lot of space and doesn't worry much when he makes mistakes. It was not a glowing endorsement. Reading it now, what I hear is: big kid, makes plenty of mistakes, doesn't let it bother him. And forget what Murray said, do you really expect a teammate to say anything bad about a young kid on his team? I wouldn't.

Lastly, we as a fanbase ranked Carlsson 7th in our prospect polls (after his late season debut) on a not very deep pipeline. Sure Z, Douchebag and Bjorky were no brainers at the top but Korpi, Milano, Andy, Forsberg, Abramov, Bittner, etc. I'd say the fanbase here was not overly high on him.

And for humbling fun...our 15-20 included Gavrikov, Elvis and Peeke.

Blanks is different. At the end of the season I thought 'hey now, I wanna see more'. He flashed, gotta see if he can maintain it.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Add Voronkov

 

[LoneFunyan]

Add Voronkov.

 

[Cowumbus]

The 3rd word in your sentence is the key. Its obviously why the draft exists, you try to project the best future based on the data you have. Sometimes players get missed or simply develop later. Blankenburg clearly appears to be a player who developed later and its just a matter of trying to figure out what his actual upside is

Yes.

But his upside isn’t as high as the guys we drafted in the first round.

 

[GoJackets1]

Add Foudy

 

[Cowumbus]

I think that misses the point. It's not that draft picks aren't great and give you the best odds of getting talent among 18 year olds, but at some point you have to re-evaluate talent and forget about draft position. Using draft rankings to evaluate older prospects is especially silly.

Yes. But comparing the current talent of guys who are 24 vs 19 year olds isn’t fair. We have a 19 year old that is already better in the NCAA than Blankenburg was…

I feel like you’re trying to reduce my argument to “X player was drafted higher, so he’s better!” And that’s just not what I’m saying at all.

 

[makethesave]

Yes.. which was my point .. Blankenburg played played 7 meaningless games at end of season, and many are high on him.. You can’t remember how high everyone was with Carlsson, after stepping in 5 games and looking good in the playoffs and being praised by Torts ? That was point I was making . We all have different opinions , I just don’t remotely think he’s one of our top 8 prospects right now… For example Tarasov was pretty dominant in a handful of starts, Foudy is 22, been injured and Covid season, but near a point per game in AHL past 2 seasons . I need to see more of Blankenburg , other than 7 meaningless games out of the playoff race, late in the season , from an undrafted player , especially with him being 24 already .

Gabriel Carlsson Quietly Impressing Blue Jackets - The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

One of the strengths of the Columbus Blue Jackets is their depth on the blue line. Learn how rookie Gabriel Carlsson is making a good impression.

thehockeywriters.com

I think (and "think" is the key word) that Blankenburg has a future in the league. I was impressed by what I saw in his brief stint of 7 games. But that short trial gave way to many fans pegging him as a possible first or second pairing this coming season. He seems good, don't get me wrong, and has a fantastic story behind him which helped create added interest. But its an 82 game season and with his style of play the hope is he maintains his health. Unfortunately, his size (not his heart) may be his Achilles Heal. Bigger players don't win badges of honor by taking down a much smaller player...but if that smaller player continues to use the small size to his advantage, the opposition won't tolerate it. The key to him will be how well he and his body holds up over an 82 game season. The AHL is a tough league and it could be a great spot for him to really acclimate to the heavier game and get tons of minutes. College hockey is not nearly as physical as the AHL and of course the NHL.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Personally I don't recall ever being impressed at all with Carlsson. Zero, zilch, nada. I remember wondering why the heck Torts was messing with the defensive pairings at the end of the season and that Carlsson did nothing to deserve playoff games.

You linked to an article where Torts basically said he's big, takes up a lot of space and doesn't worry much when he makes mistakes. It was not a glowing endorsement. Reading it now, what I hear is: big kid, makes plenty of mistakes, doesn't let it bother him. And forget what Murray said, do you really expect a teammate to say anything bad about a young kid on his team? I wouldn't.

Lastly, we as a fanbase ranked Carlsson 7th in our prospect polls (after his late season debut) on a not very deep pipeline. Sure Z, Douchebag and Bjorky were no brainers at the top but Korpi, Milano, Andy, Forsberg, Abramov, Bittner, etc. I'd say the fanbase here was not overly high on him.

And for humbling fun...our 15-20 included Gavrikov, Elvis and Peeke.

Blanks is different. At the end of the season I thought 'hey now, I wanna see more'. He flashed, gotta see if he can maintain it.

Blanks had 69 points in 133 ncaa games , and was nothing more than average until his senior yr , where he was a 24 yr old … all I’m saying is it’s silly to have discussions of him being one of our top 10 prospects . Especially when you consider his size and age . He’s definitely worth taking a flyer on if your Jarmo

 

[CBJx614]

Yes. But comparing the current talent of guys who are 24 vs 19 year olds isn’t fair. We have a 19 year old that is already better in the NCAA than Blankenburg was…

I feel like you’re trying to reduce my argument to “X player was drafted higher, so he’s better!” And that’s just not what I’m saying at all.

But as another poster here loves to point out

Progress isn't always linear. Said first rounder might not progress much more, while Blankenberg might progress into a 1D. Or Blankenberg might not progress any further and Ceulemans could very well pass him up this season.


Either way. Our future on the back end looks extremely bright either way

 

[majormajor]

Blanks had 69 points in 133 ncaa games , and was nothing more than average until his senior yr , where he was a 24 yr old … all I’m saying is it’s silly to have discussions of him being one of our top 10 prospects . Especially when you consider his size and age . He’s definitely worth taking a flyer on if your Jarmo

Yeah he's a late bloomer. I'm not sure what the relevance of that is. I'm more interested in what a player's current level is, and if anything, a sharply positive trajectory outweighs what a player was doing three years ago.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Blanks had 69 points in 133 ncaa games , and was nothing more than average until his senior yr , where he was a 24 yr old … all I’m saying is it’s silly to have discussions of him being one of our top 10 prospects . Especially when you consider his size and age . He’s definitely worth taking a flyer on if your Jarmo

He was offered a contract by Colorado after his junior year. It wasn’t a one year wonder

 

[majormajor]

I think (and "think" is the key word) that Blankenburg has a future in the league. I was impressed by what I saw in his brief stint of 7 games. But that short trial gave way to many fans pegging him as a possible first or second pairing this coming season. He seems good, don't get me wrong, and has a fantastic story behind him which helped create added interest. But its an 82 game season and with his style of play the hope is he maintains his health. Unfortunately, his size (not his heart) may be his Achilles Heal. Bigger players don't win badges of honor by taking down a much smaller player...but if that smaller player continues to use the small size to his advantage, the opposition won't tolerate it. The key to him will be how well he and his body holds up over an 82 game season. The AHL is a tough league and it could be a great spot for him to really acclimate to the heavier game and get tons of minutes. College hockey is not nearly as physical as the AHL and of course the NHL.

Blankenburg couldn't possibly acclimate any better than he already has. To paraphrase Lars, you could have used Blanks' tape as a manual for "how to play D in the NHL". He's closer to coaching our AHL D than needing lessons at that level.

 

[makethesave]

Blankenburg couldn't possibly acclimate any better than he already has. To paraphrase Lars, you could have used Blanks' tape as a manual for "how to play D in the NHL". He's closer to coaching our AHL D than needing lessons at that level.

Good point. But the comment from Lars was based, again, on just 7 games. Hey, the kid looked very comfortable and I really like his game/style. All I'm saying is an 82 game season is a huge ass physical grind and there are not that many players that can hack that (I think we only had two). My hope for him is that he can handle it. Based on just 7 games...maybe he can...and if so, good for him and the team. He does bring an infectious amount of energy and is really helping create a huge internal battle for a roster spot. All positives.

 

[Doggy]

Blanks had 69 points in 133 ncaa games , and was nothing more than average until his senior yr , where he was a 24 yr old … all I’m saying is it’s silly to have discussions of him being one of our top 10 prospects . Especially when you consider his size and age . He’s definitely worth taking a flyer on if your Jarmo

My initial response to you had very little to do with Blanks (thrown in late at the end of my post) and far more to do with your poorly supported argument that the team, coaches and fans had such a high impression of Carlsson after his unremarkable seven game debut.

That said, I think this discussion is falling back into the debate of: are you ranking prospects on what their ceiling is or whether you think a player can reasonably achieve said ceiling. Maybe Dolzhenkov has a high ceiling but at this point in his career I'm not making any bets he's gonna reach them. Blanks' ceiling may be lower but I have more confidence he can get there.

 

[KJ Dangler]

But as another poster here loves to point out

Progress isn't always linear. Said first rounder might not progress much more, while Blankenberg might progress into a 1D. Or Blankenberg might not progress any further and Ceulemans could very well pass him up this season.


Either way. Our future on the back end looks extremely bright either way

Blankenburg wasn’t even first or 2nd team All Big 10 . Cmon people get a grip . This is silly

 

[KJ Dangler]

He was offered a contract by Colorado after his junior year. It wasn’t a one year wonder

Awesome .. possibly he becomes full time NHL player . One of our top 10 prospects , not even close . The kid was honorable mention in the big 10 as a highlight , of a 4 yr kid .

 

[KJ Dangler]

My initial response to you had very little to do with Blanks (thrown in late at the end of my post) and far more to do with your poorly supported argument that the team, coaches and fans had such a high impression of Carlsson after his unremarkable seven game debut.

That said, I think this discussion is falling back into the debate of: are you ranking prospects on what their ceiling is or whether you think a player can reasonably achieve said ceiling. Maybe Dolzhenkov has a high ceiling but at this point in his career I'm not making any bets he's gonna reach them. Blanks' ceiling may be lower but I have more confidence he can get there.

Good question .. my definition of grading prospects is their ceiling and potential of reaching that . For example I have Kj, Jiricek, Mateychuk,Marchenko and Cuelemans as my top 5 . With Jiricek, Mateychuk, and Cuelemans all having potential to be a top pairing , possibly #1 D.

 

[LJ7]

Awesome .. possibly he becomes full time NHL player . One of our top 10 prospects , not even close . The kid was honorable mention in the big 10 as a highlight , of a 4 yr kid .

He's definitely different than the rest of our pool and most prospects. It is hard to judge a late bloomer like him against guys taking the usual route but I don't see the problem with being ranked 6-10.

 

[Doggy]

All this lively debate at #5, can't wait for #6

 

[tunnelvision]

Taking notes for the month of November...

"Revisit thread HFCBJ 2022 Summer Prospect Rankings #5"