Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Polls 2024 - #3

[McMetal]

Mikhail Gulyayev remains at #2 on the board, leaving the top 2 intact from last year.

Added Will Zellers to the board (because I break ties).

1) Calum Ritchie
2) Mikhail Gulyayev

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[Pokecheque]

Boy is there ever gonna be a dropoff after this one

 

[tigervixxxen]

I’m going Nabokov here. He headlined a draft class for a reason, he’s probably going to get a real opportunity sooner than later. I know Behrens likely wins this poll but I have yet to see any evidence the org considers him a top prospect, they were going to let him go back for the senior year too. He’s much closer to the Foudy/Olausson tier for me.

Speaking of, add Olausson.

 

[VikingAv]

Boy is there ever gonna be a dropoff after this one

Eh, I think the dropoff is after the next one. But that'll be huuuuge.

 

[willy702]

I think the knock on the Avs for good reason is lack of depth in the prospects. Guys 7 and below may never play more than 5-10 NHL games in their career. Part of that is lack of talent but its also philosophical. A guy like Foudy would get nothing but NHL time in Columbus whenever he's healthy so that makes you question is that the fault of the prospect or the organization if he's not a sure NHL-er at this point?

And the loss for the organization in saying we don't need a guy like that isn't that they can't fill the role, its that they lose the opportunity to develop him at the highest level and maybe become a fringe top-6 player because they always fill 4th line with cheap veterans and waiver wire pickups. If an organization is of the mindset you build a team around a handful of star players and just fill the slots behind them, prospects mean zip and probably should be traded. And with the Avs that seems to be the strategy so they are in fact doing this right.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think the knock on the Avs for good reason is lack of depth in the prospects. Guys 7 and below may never play more than 5-10 NHL games in their career. Part of that is lack of talent but its also philosophical. A guy like Foudy would get nothing but NHL time in Columbus whenever he's healthy so that makes you question is that the fault of the prospect or the organization if he's not a sure NHL-er at this point?

And the loss for the organization in saying we don't need a guy like that isn't that they can't fill the role, its that they lose the opportunity to develop him at the highest level and maybe become a fringe top-6 player because they always fill 4th line with cheap veterans and waiver wire pickups. If an organization is of the mindset you build a team around a handful of star players and just fill the slots behind them, prospects mean zip and probably should be traded. And with the Avs that seems to be the strategy so they are in fact doing this right.

I agree with this up until you have Wagner, Olofsson and Kiviranta on your team as a result.

Everyone approaches the polls and evaluation differently and that’s great, it’s the reason for having them and these discussions. But for me yeah the way the Avs operate has to be taken into account. It’s not just about talent and floor/ceiling. There has to be actual interest and commitment shown to elevate a guy past a certain point. A contract is one and then there’s real action that indicates some sort of urgency would be another. Pedigree also helps when there’s absence of either because pedigree leads to the first two indicators while it’s still relevant.

 

[Chiarelli]

If a kid isn't lighting the AHL on fire they're a replacement level NHLer at best.
Nothing to lose sleep over.

 

[dahrougem2]

I have a weird sense of confidence in Behrens making the NHL. Perhaps he'll let me down soon enough but going with him here.

 

[henchman21]

If a kid isn't lighting the AHL on fire they're a replacement level NHLer at best.
Nothing to lose sleep over.

Yup... you get occasional guys who don't fit the mold, but generally, if a player can't cut it in the AHL.... there is no way they can make it in the NHL (excluding face punchers like LOB and Rempe). Hell, look at LOC... undrafted, college free agent with little fanfare. He went to the Eagles and earned a big role with the farm club. He got a cup of coffee for it. His second year he proved it wasn't a fluke and earned a NHL job. Now he's a good bottom 6 player. Probably still close to the replacement level as a whole, but a bargain for his contract.

Off topic from here, but the Avs have done a pretty good job of developing these fringe players. LOC, Graves, and MacDonald have helped the Avs to varies extents...but Greer, Dries, Toninato, Sherwood, etc have all carved out NHL roles for periods right after being in the Avs' system. The Avs just don't draft a lot of those types. The AHL isn't really a league where top 6 and offensive defensemen stay long. It is a fairly normal for a year, maybe into a second or in a bit more rare cases complete a second. If they hit the third or fourth year, it is usually off the rails. The guys that stay 3-4 years are the depth pieces. The third liner, 4th line PK guy, complimentary defensemen, etc. If the former top guys don't adapt their game to being role players at that point, they tend to head to Europe or have to be skilled enough to be a top AHL scorer.

 

[Deadsy]

Nabokov, add Olausson.

 

[McMetal]

Behrens again, Curran again.

I definitely agree that prospects that don't stand out at the AHL level are not going to suddenly figure it out at the NHL level. If you look at depth guys who had long careers, they were almost always top players at lower levels. Even Mark Rycroft was nearly a PPG over 3 seasons in the NCAA, and he barely scratched out 200 NHL games as a facepuncher. If you can't get by on raw talent at the scrambly AHL level, there's zero hope for you becoming an impact player.

As for Olausson in particular, as far as I'm concerned he is the Crown Prince of Bustlandia. Absolutely no potential left for him, he's been below expectations every year since he was drafted. I would rate every single 2024 draftee above him, because in two seasons tops he'll be back in Sweden.

 

[willy702]

If a kid isn't lighting the AHL on fire they're a replacement level NHLer at best.
Nothing to lose sleep over.

At a certain age yes. I think some high-level skills are better developed at the NHL level to see if they are truly high-level. For example skating ability and ability to play certain roles on special teams are hard to translate without doing them at an NHL level, or at least practicing them at an NHL level. Stuff in the AHL is too vanilla or weighed down by too much turnover and deficient skills to say its the only way to gauge NHL potential. I still firmly believe some prospects are not served well by their only looks at the NHL level being 6 minutes a game of 4th line duties. Not to say maybe the org has decided that's the ceiling for the player but for many players if that's all you think of them then it really serves no purpose to ever elevate them and they should just be traded or relegated to being AHL filler.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Behrens again, Curran again.

I definitely agree that prospects that don't stand out at the AHL level are not going to suddenly figure it out at the NHL level. If you look at depth guys who had long careers, they were almost always top players at lower levels. Even Mark Rycroft was nearly a PPG over 3 seasons in the NCAA, and he barely scratched out 200 NHL games as a facepuncher. If you can't get by on raw talent at the scrambly AHL level, there's zero hope for you becoming an impact player.

As for Olausson in particular, as far as I'm concerned he is the Crown Prince of Bustlandia. Absolutely no potential left for him, he's been below expectations every year since he was drafted. I would rate every single 2024 draftee above him, because in two seasons tops he'll be back in Sweden.

There’s probably a 50/50 chance anyone besides Nabokov gets a NHL contract from the draft class

 

[henchman21]

There’s probably a 50/50 chance anyone besides Nabokov gets a NHL contract from the draft class

The Avs have signed guys like Nick Henry and Alex Beaucage… they’ll sign at least 2 if not 3 or 4. Now whether they are worth contract is a completely different discussion.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Foudy... Add Pitner.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Behrens.
Add Curran or Pitner.

 

[Perratrooper]

Add Mandalose

 

[henchman21]

Add Mandalose

You joke... but.....

 

[henchman21]

Something that I don't think people realize about Behrens is that in college, he was about as good of shutdown defensemen as there was. He stepped in as a freshman and could match up consistently. By his junior year, I don't think there was a better defensemen on that side of the puck in all of college hockey. There is risk that his style has translation issues due to his size. People see he's ~5'10" ~185lbs and he gets labeled with the offensive, puck moving types... which he can move the puck, but his his calling card is defense. He's got fantastic gaps, reads the play well, excellent stick and is surprisingly pretty physical.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Something that I don't think people realize about Behrens is that in college, he was about as good of shutdown defensemen as there was. He stepped in as a freshman and could match up consistently. By his junior year, I don't think there was a better defensemen on that side of the puck in all of college hockey. There is risk that his style has translation issues due to his size. People see he's ~5'10" ~185lbs and he gets labeled with the offensive, puck moving types... which he can move the puck, but his his calling card is defense. He's got fantastic gaps, reads the play well, excellent stick and is surprisingly pretty physical.

Was gonna say didn’t he win the best defensive dman award this year? Also how is his skating compared to Girards?

 

[henchman21]

Was gonna say didn’t he win the best defensive dman award this year? Also how is his skating compared to Girards?

I think he won the award for NCHC there. It is a supremely underrated part of his game and I think that's his real calling card. If he gets to 30-35-40 points, that's great! But the real value in his play will be his defensive game. Which presents a risk given smaller guys are not typically your defensive stalwarts in the NHL. That translation is one that doesn't happen all that often. And it may not here, but I don't see anything beyond his size causing that. I see a lot of Goligoski in Behrens.

He's stronger on his edges, but overall pretty comparable. Both are mobile and elusive more than speedy and explosive. Just comparing to Goulash here... Goulash is explosive. He's a one step and gone guy who has a great top gear too. Whereas Behren's skating is more subtle. Simple, strong moves that create separation. It is efficient in that he doesn't utilize a ton of energy moving around and creating his space. When he's leaned on by bigger guys, he's got the power to hold his own or win the battle with his feet.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Can Behrens play the right side? Could he play with Girard after Manson's deal is done? Or do we need more size for the role of pairing with Sammy?

 

[henchman21]

Can Behrens play the right side? Could he play with Girard after Manson's deal is done? Or do we need more size for the role of pairing with Sammy?

He's played a lot of RD with DU. With either of the Buium brothers he played the right quite a bit. Though Zeev did have some runs on the right with Behrens on the left.

On pairing up with G... we'd need to see how the physicality translates longer term. If it does, maybe you get to that point, but if it doesn't... you could end up with a pairing that really struggles against heavy forechecks. I would say the possibility of that pairing working is rather slim.

IMO the best possible path here is that Behrens quickly makes Girard expendable. Then with Behrens' flexibility on side, you have flexibility on the handedness of the partner you grab to replace Manson. You're not really forced into a right shot. It would still be ideal, but not completely needed.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Honestly if we can get a Mike Weaver type out of Behrens, that'll be a huge get for a 2nd rounder in this org.

 

[McMetal]

Add Mandalose

Actually, Mandolese is technically eligible for this year under the rules, even though he turns 24 in five weeks. That's barely under the cutoff, but I'll allow it. I'm going to add him to the list of eligible players in the main thread.