Hellebuyck for Vezina

[Mortimer Snerd]

When do they vote on this? It is supposed to be regular season, which is over. But if there is more play before they vote that play will influence voters, good or bad.

 

[rubikscube]

Laine is a goal scorer. He shoots first. When he doesn't have a good shot, he is also a very good playmaker. But he is more likely to shoot. Scoring goals is the object of the game, not making pretty plays. Playmakers help the goal scorers score but a goal scorer is the most valuable player in the game. And it isn't like Laine doesn't get any assists. He has 35 this year, to 28 goals.

Winning is the object of the game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Winning is the object of the game.

Right. By scoring more goals than the other team.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Laine is a goal scorer. He shoots first. When he doesn't have a good shot, he is also a very good playmaker. But he is more likely to shoot. Scoring goals is the object of the game, not making pretty plays. Playmakers help the goal scorers score but a goal scorer is the most valuable player in the game. And it isn't like Laine doesn't get any assists. He has 35 this year, to 28 goals.

Yet when ppl make similar arguments in Connor (goal scorer) Vs Ehlers playmaker you take Ehlers. Because it’s not that simple that goal scorers are the most valuable. Marner also pks. Isn’t zone entries simply another form of playmaking?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yet when ppl make similar arguments in Connor (goal scorer) Vs Ehlers playmaker you take Ehlers. Because it’s not that simple that goal scorers are the most valuable. Marner also pks. Isn’t zone entries simply another form of playmaking?

Ehlers v Connor is a different debate.

But you are right, it is not that simple. But in comparing Marner to Laine I don't think Marner has an advantage in the 200' game. I don't put a lot of weight on Marner PK'ing. I don't even know if he is a good PK'er or not. I think Laine has a greater influence on winning games, or at least that he will have going forward.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers v Connor is a different debate.

But you are right, it is not that simple. But in comparing Marner to Laine I don't think Marner has an advantage in the 200' game. I don't put a lot of weight on Marner PK'ing. I don't even know if he is a good PK'er or not. I think Laine has a greater influence on winning games, or at least that he will have going forward.

Which takes us back to your original point going forward which is all we can do is wait. If this is Laine he is not a 10 mil guy if he hits another level he will be but there is no guarantee either way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Which takes us back to your original point going forward which is all we can do is wait. If this is Laine he is not a 10 mil guy if he hits another level he will be but there is no guarantee either way.

Just what I've been saying.

I'm pretty sure he will improve further. I'm not so sure by how much. Maybe he will get to an 8.5 level. Nothing wrong with that. But if he can threaten the 50 goal mark, continue the physical game he has started and still play well in all 3 zones, he will get to 10+.

Edit: Just realized we were in the Vezina thread. Go Helle, Go!

 

[Adam da bomb]

Just what I've been saying.

I'm pretty sure he will improve further. I'm not so sure by how much. Maybe he will get to an 8.5 level. Nothing wrong with that. But if he can threaten the 50 goal mark, continue the physical game he has started and still play well in all 3 zones, he will get to 10+.

Edit: Just realized we were in the Vezina thread. Go Helle, Go!

But what really is there to say about Helly, he’s a godsend on a great deal and deserves the Venzina no controversy there.

 

[JetsNut]

It has nothing to do with Maurice. Laine is spoonfed top PP time, and has very capable linemates. 50 goal scorers drive their lines, something Laine cannot do.
His lack of ability to pot 50 is on him and him alone.
A point per game physical winger with improving (albeit still poor) defense is still awesome though.

Really? Ok how long had Laine been on the first line last season and season before? He lit it up offensively his first two season and that wasn’t a coincidence. Maurice didn’t handle the situation properly and has tried to make him into something he’s not.

 

[rubikscube]

Really? Ok how long had Laine been on the first line last season and season before? He lit it up offensively his first two season and that wasn’t a coincidence. Maurice didn’t handle the situation properly and has tried to make him into something he’s not.

Lolol
did Ovi have anyone of Ehlers or Little's quality on his TEAM in 2005 when he potted 50?
Of course not. Alex Semin maybe? Lmao

Finnish fans have to learn to pull it together. The lack of objectivity makes discussion impossible.

Can Laine become elite? YES! and hopefully he does. Is it going to happen? Unlikely at this point, but not impossible by any means.

Is it Maurice's fault? Get freaking real.

He's objectively the Jets 4th or 5th best player. Scheif, Helle are miles ahead of him. Tied with Wheeler (not true but being generous to Laine), and lagging behind Connor now.

 

[NotCommitted]

The last I checked, Hellebuyck was leading the league in advanced goalie stats, but Rask was 2nd. What Hellebuyck did behind a lacking defense is nothing short of spectacular and surely Vezina worty. Still, I don't think Rask winning it would be such a huge injustice. The way Vezina has been awarded in the past, it's hard to argue against the main stats and team success, especially since the other guy is also near the top in advanced metrics.

I'm sure most people would love for the Vezina to become more about goalie alone, it would be kinda cool if a goalie in a bottom-half team could still seriously compete for it and receive serious recognition for his efforts. Yet at the same time it's a team game and I think traditionally you need to be a very good goalie in a good to very good team to have any chance.

The way the season ended is interesting and I suppose could affect voters one way or other. I don't see Hellebuyck winning it as it stands, for him to win it with the Jets I think he would've needed the narrative of a heroic playoff push near the end of the season, epicly dragging his team to the post season. Sadly Hellebuyck didn't have a chance to do that. I think that would've been the kind of thing to push him ahead of Rask, especially if Rask didn't perform similar heroics, which in his case would've meant legendary good %SV, GAA etc.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The last I checked, Hellebuyck was leading the league in advanced goalie stats, but Rask was 2nd. What Hellebuyck did behind a lacking defense is nothing short of spectacular and surely Vezina worty. Still, I don't think Rask winning it would be such a huge injustice. The way Vezina has been awarded in the past, it's hard to argue against the main stats and team success, especially since the other guy is also near the top in advanced metrics.

I'm sure most people would love for the Vezina to become more about goalie alone, it would be kinda cool if a goalie in a bottom-half team could still seriously compete for it and receive serious recognition for his efforts. Yet at the same time it's a team game and I think traditionally you need to be a very good goalie in a good to very good team to have any chance.

The way the season ended is interesting and I suppose could affect voters one way or other. I don't see Hellebuyck winning it as it stands, for him to win it with the Jets I think he would've needed the narrative of a heroic playoff push near the end of the season, epicly dragging his team to the post season. Sadly Hellebuyck didn't have a chance to do that. I think that would've been the kind of thing to push him ahead of Rask, especially if Rask didn't perform similar heroics, which in his case would've meant legendary good %SV, GAA etc.

Makes you wonder how many players never get the credit they deserve because they played for a bad team. If Helly doesn’t win he’s not considered one of the great goalies but what he did this season just falls short of legendary.

 

[NotCommitted]

Makes you wonder how many players never get the credit they deserve because they played for a bad team. If Helly doesn’t win he’s not considered one of the great goalies but what he did this season just falls short of legendary.

In a sense it's understandable, it's a team sport so ultimately the guys around you matter more than what you do individually. But if you take that to extreme, what's the point of even tracking any individual stats... The players who never get the credit are probably the ones who never get into a good team. Once they do, they get the credit for previous years as well It's funny how that works. If you play awesome for 19 seasons in a bad team and then win the cup in your 20th, you become a legend who finally got what you deserved, but if you had retired after your 19th season you'd be one of those good players who just wasn't good enough or just didn't have what it takes to be a winner.

 

[Adam da bomb]

In a sense it's understandable, it's a team sport so ultimately the guys around you matter more than what you do individually. But if you take that to extreme, what's the point of even tracking any individual stats... The players who never get the credit are probably the ones who never get into a good team. Once they do, they get the credit for previous years as well It's funny how that works. If you play awesome for 19 seasons in a bad team and then win the cup in your 20th, you become a legend who finally got what you deserved, but if you had retired after your 19th season you'd be one of those good players who just wasn't good enough or just didn't have what it takes to be a winner.

Also they negotiate their salaries as individuals. If little was our top centre there is no way Laine gets paid more than 10 mil or probably even wants to stick around. If the team is horrid it’s hard for anyone to demand top dollar. Murray is paid more because he has cups something Helly May never have.

 

[Romang67]

I stumbled across this:

Model Description: Expected Goals Fabric

If you scroll down to the bottom you can find yet another graphic showing just how outstanding Hellebuyck was this season. Filter by minimum shots faced to see him become increasingly lonely at the top.

 

[JetsNut]

Lolol
did Ovi have anyone of Ehlers or Little's quality on his TEAM in 2005 when he potted 50?
Of course not. Alex Semin maybe? Lmao

Finnish fans have to learn to pull it together. The lack of objectivity makes discussion impossible.

Can Laine become elite? YES! and hopefully he does. Is it going to happen? Unlikely at this point, but not impossible by any means.

Is it Maurice's fault? Get freaking real.

He's objectively the Jets 4th or 5th best player. Scheif, Helle are miles ahead of him. Tied with Wheeler (not true but being generous to Laine), and lagging behind Connor now.

First of all I’m not Finnish. Just a fan that dislikes the way Maurice has handled many things during his tenure. One of them just happens to be the mishandling of a gifted and pure goal scorer.

 

[ps241]

I stumbled across this:

Model Description: Expected Goals Fabric

If you scroll down to the bottom you can find yet another graphic showing just how outstanding Hellebuyck was this season. Filter by minimum shots faced to see him become increasingly lonely at the top.

That is nuts!

 

[NorCalhockey]

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. GM’s vote for this award and I am not sure if they give a shit. There is zero chance Rask should win since he played on the top team and split starts for the most part. Compare that to Helle who was the workhorse and played on a team that leaked pretty much the most high danger chances in the NHL. This should be a no brainer but Rask is the name brand on a great team so who knows.

Rask deserves a nomination, but it should be Hellebuyck's to win. You basically stated some of the facts as to why I don't believe Rask shouldn't win it.

But without Hellebuyck we might've been bound for the basement, but who knows who our goalie would be if not him. Likely Comrie or Hutchinson, or worse a goalie that's desperate for an NHL job.

Two things:
1) in the past, when voting for the Vezina, do the voters look at the supporting cast around the goalie? If yes, Helle should win this year.
2) can the dreaded "East Coast bias" AND "small market" mentality work against Helle?

 

[NorCalhockey]

The last I checked, Hellebuyck was leading the league in advanced goalie stats, but Rask was 2nd. What Hellebuyck did behind a lacking defense is nothing short of spectacular and surely Vezina worty. Still, I don't think Rask winning it would be such a huge injustice. The way Vezina has been awarded in the past, it's hard to argue against the main stats and team success, especially since the other guy is also near the top in advanced metrics.

I'm sure most people would love for the Vezina to become more about goalie alone, it would be kinda cool if a goalie in a bottom-half team could still seriously compete for it and receive serious recognition for his efforts. Yet at the same time it's a team game and I think traditionally you need to be a very good goalie in a good to very good team to have any chance.

The way the season ended is interesting and I suppose could affect voters one way or other. I don't see Hellebuyck winning it as it stands, for him to win it with the Jets I think he would've needed the narrative of a heroic playoff push near the end of the season, epicly dragging his team to the post season. Sadly Hellebuyck didn't have a chance to do that. I think that would've been the kind of thing to push him ahead of Rask, especially if Rask didn't perform similar heroics, which in his case would've meant legendary good %SV, GAA etc.

Yes, hockey is a Team sport, but I hope the Vezina voters realize the individual brilliance from Helle this year. Similar to when J-S Giguere won the Conn Smythe even though his team lost the SC Finals. Jiggy was just so damn good throughout that year's playoffs that he won the MVP trophy despite being on the losing team. How often does something like that happen?!

 

[White Out 902]

Figured you guys would get a kick out of me numbering my away Jets Jersey #37 lol

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Ballots are out for voting. Hellybuyck getting love on twitter as leading candidate for the Vezina. Rask getting some buzz too

 

[ps241]

In the Athletic Arthur Staple has an excellent article where he interviews Steve Valiquette who is a former Goalie, Studio analyst for MSG network for Rangers Games, but his main project is Clear Sight Hockey, the data company formed in 2015.

Steve is a very bright guy and I have heard some of his interviews and love his work. He is one of the forefathers of expected goals model. For those who don't know the expected goals model is "built using historical averages for every chance in the NHL during a season". So they have 350,000 NHL chances in their data base categorized by shot type. Then they manually track all shots to get context for the event (that feels like an insane amount of work).

A few interesting take homes they have discovered:

The usual suspect is a shot that comes off a pass the goes through the center line high to low is the toughest for goalies to stop in the NHL (Duh)

The next two most dangerous chances come from broken plays. Mid % broken plays are those that are shots from the point in the air that hit something and are deflected without a screen. A high % broken play is a slot level pass that doesn't get to its intended target but hits a skate or stick and winds up on an attackers stick by chance.

He then goes on to talk about trends of successful teams which is interesting.

One cool part is that a chance that is getting lower status is clear sighted shots from the danger area (one where goalies have more than one half second of clear site). For most tracking companies or teams these have always been classified as high danger chances but not for Steve's company anymore because they have looked at 5000 chances a year on clear-sighted shots that come from the slot and the scoring rates aren't high enough to qualify. He says that is a tough concept to sell to a team (that shot only goes in 7.1% of the time) and he says he gets push back on it!!

Lots of other red meat talking about how guys like Matthews are great at shooting through defenders and that is very dangerous for goalies.

Expected goal differential is very powerful and the guys in the minus all tend to miss the playoffs. "There wasn't a good team that had poor goaltending this year". I like this one "But there are some good teams that had great gaoatending and now the perception is they have a great team, their coach is great". He said its not always the case.

Now to what you are waiting for. Steve was looking at expected goals for goalies this year and using a filter of 950 chances against he landed on 22 goalies who qualify. "Connor Hellebuyck, best goalie in the game, should be your Vezina trophy winner"! full stop.

Jacob Markstrom grades high. Rask and Crawford are still elite in their 30's. Blackwood in New Jersey is a legit goalie at 23. etc etc

Anyways I thought it was an outstanding article

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In the Athletic Arthur Staple has an excellent article where he interviews Steve Valiquette who is a former Goalie, Studio analyst for MSG network for Rangers Games, but his main project is Clear Sight Hockey, the data company formed in 2015.

Steve is a very bright guy and I have heard some of his interviews and love his work. He is one of the forefathers of expected goals model. For those who don't know the expected goals model is "built using historical averages for every chance in the NHL during a season". So they have 350,000 NHL chances in their data base categorized by shot type. Then they manually track all shots to get context for the event (that feels like an insane amount of work).

A few interesting take homes they have discovered:

The usual suspect is a shot that comes off a pass the goes through the center line high to low is the toughest for goalies to stop in the NHL (Duh)

The next two most dangerous chances come from broken plays. Mid % broken plays are those that are shots from the point in the air that hit something and are deflected without a screen. A high % broken play is a slot level pass that doesn't get to its intended target but hits a skate or stick and winds up on an attackers stick by chance.

He then goes on to talk about trends of successful teams which is interesting.

One cool part is that a chance that is getting lower status is clear sighted shots from the danger area (one where goalies have more than one half second of clear site). For most tracking companies or teams these have always been classified as high danger chances but not for Steve's company anymore because they have looked at 5000 chances a year on clear-sighted shots that come from the slot and the scoring rates aren't high enough to qualify. He says that is a tough concept to sell to a team (that shot only goes in 7.1% of the time) and he says he gets push back on it!!

Lots of other red meat talking about how guys like Matthews are great at shooting through defenders and that is very dangerous for goalies.

Expected goal differential is very powerful and the guys in the minus all tend to miss the playoffs. "There wasn't a good team that had poor goaltending this year". I like this one "But there are some good teams that had great gaoatending and now the perception is they have a great team, their coach is great". He said its not always the case.

Now to what you are waiting for. Steve was looking at expected goals for goalies this year and using a filter of 950 chances against he landed on 22 goalies who qualify. "Connor Hellebuyck, best goalie in the game, should be your Vezina trophy winner"! full stop.

Jacob Markstrom grades high. Rask and Crawford are still elite in their 30's. Blackwood in New Jersey is a legit goalie at 23. etc etc

Anyways I thought it was an outstanding article

I like the part about the shots from the High Danger Areas that are not high danger shots because the goalie is able to see them and, presumably react to make the save. The concept of high danger areas is far too simplistic. The high danger shots are the ones the goalie never sees or doesn't see until too late. That obviously still makes some areas higher danger. Shots that come from in close don't give a goalie enough time to react, even if he sees them, for example.

 

[ps241]

I like the part about the shots from the High Danger Areas that are not high danger shots because the goalie is able to see them and, presumably react to make the save. The concept of high danger areas is far too simplistic. The high danger shots are the ones the goalie never sees or doesn't see until too late. That obviously still makes some areas higher danger. Shots that come from in close don't give a goalie enough time to react, even if he sees them, for example.

Yea these are so many nuances to this. If you take a guy like Austin Matthews he has one of the best releases in the league and he also led the league in high danger shots from the slot with 41 and one would assume he would have made hey. Here is the rub out of his 41 clear sighted shots out of the slot he only got 4 goals. Valiquette watched all 41 shots just to be sure why. Valiquette also watched all the goals he does score from and it ends up he scores shooting through a defenders triangle. He has the great drag and release that comes off quickly and surprises goalies. So that ends up being a much higher danger chance than his clear-sighted slot shots.

So cool that Valiquette and his team go through all the shots in their data base for context.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Yea these are so many nuances to this. If you take a guy like Austin Matthews he has one of the best releases in the league and he also led the league in high danger shots from the slot with 41 and one would assume he would have made hey. Here is the rub out of his 41 clear sighted shots out of the slot he only got 4 goals. Valiquette watched all 41 shots just to be sure why. Valiquette also watched all the goals he does score from and it ends up he scores shooting through a defenders triangle. He has the great drag and release that comes off quickly and surprises goalies. So that ends up being a much higher danger chance than his clear-sighted slot shots.

So cool that Valiquette and his team go through all the shots in their data base for context.

Matthews has the best wrister in the league at this point imo.

His ability to get his shot off in traffic is just unbelievable. Changing his angles, quick release. It's something that I notice he is just miles better at than Laine. Laine struggles to get shots off unless he has a lot of space.

I agree with what Valiquette is saying though, goalies are so good at stopping what they see. Unless there is a screen or significant puck movement before the shot they are likely to make the save.