Have players like McDavid and Matthews priced themselves out of a cup?

[Stony Curtis]

A big component of a player taking less money is the player trusting that the GM will spend the savings wisely, and put the player and team in a position to win.

 

[mr figgles]

McDavid‘s cap hit % was lower than Crosby‘s when he signed his first extension. Add to that he‘s been playing with Draisaitl who has been underpaid the whole time. The blame is squarely on management.

 

[DrDangles]

The percentages work out to be roughly the same. Pittsburgh won back to back cups with Sid and Geno taking up roughly 25% of the cap, which is what McDrai takes up.

The difference is Sid and Geno were just better hockey players.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Eichel at 10.000 won a cup. Swap him for McDavid and take 2.500 away from that roster, and it's entirely possible they still win.

There's too many variables to blame a single player for anything like this.

That said, I don't think any team that is as 'top heavy' as Toronto or Edmonton has won a cup in the cap era. I do think that is an issue.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Eichel at 10.000 won a cup. Swap him for McDavid and take 2.500 away from that roster, and it's entirely possible they still win.

There's too many variables to blame a single player for anything like this.

That said, I don't think any team that is as 'top heavy' as Toronto or Edmonton has won a cup in the cap era. I do think that is an issue.

I just wanna double exactly what he said.

 

[Cancuks]

The problem is not a McDavid or Matthews making 12-13 million a year. It's having Campbell making $5 million in the AHL, Nurse $9 million, Tavares $11 million, Brodie and Klingberg making over $9 million combined, etc. Why teams keep overpaying average players for what they did in the past is beyond me. This summer we'll have the same problem as a team spends $10 million+ on an aging Stamkos, $9 million + on Guenztel or Reinhart who will never play up to expectations, and some team will be dumb enough to give a declining Pesce $7 million or more for 6 or 7 years.

 

[Leksand]

To me the answer depends on whether there are compensating contracts that are a bit below market value.

For Matthews I would argue the answer is no with the other big 4 taking no discounts.

For the Oilers, the answer was possibly yes with Draisaitl’s contract as he progressed. Alas, the string of boys club GMs just had to take all that money and then some to pay Nurse.

Perhaps, a relevant q here is if MacKinnon has priced himself out of another SC. Maybe not with Makar’s contract (and Landeskog retiring, if he does, otherwise a boat anchor).

 

[JKG33]

McDavid not yet, and he actually produces in the playoffs.

But Matthews? Absolutely. When cheaper guys are outproducing you, you won't win jack shit

 

[BLONG7]

I don’t think McDavid and Matthews or their cap hits are the problem with either team.

Somewhat true....................but the high cap hits, don't allow a GM to do what he needs to do at times...

Navigating a salary cap with a superstar player on the roster is a real challenge......
remember a few years back, when they said, Price was the 1st ever 10.5M cap player to get to the Cup Finals..........crazy fact.
Bobo did it last year, with a 10M cap hit.

It just simply means, that having a star with a huge cap hit, the window of opportunity for the team to win will usually be a short one.

The Leafs, really struggle in the playoffs, and the Oilers not far behind.....
Teams need star players, but superstar players agents will handcuff the GM.

 

[Score8]

Cputer says yessss.

 

[eojsmada]

Going to say yes, because the teams that have won Cups all had players who fell into a few categories: A) Their stars were not compensated as generously until they won a Cup (Chicago, Colorado, LA Kings, Washington) OR B) There were players who took less so that the team could be more competitive (Vegas, Detroit, Tampa, Pittsburgh) OR C) You have a team with young enough players that they offset some of the salaries (Anaheim in recent memory).

As BLONG7 noted, above me, there are very few teams who reach the Cup Final with players who already have 10+M AAV contracts. That's why most teams reward their players with those kinds of contracts AFTER they have won a Cup.

Is it impossible, of course not. But the difficulty of making it there with a deep enough roster is significantly hampered. But sadly GM's like to bid against themselves and get pressured into rewarding a player for counting stats versus team success. While I understand the revenue standpoint of having a particular player on your roster, and their effect on ensuring a sold out building and their impact on the bottom line, that kind of thinking lasts only as long as your Cup window does.

 

[johan f]

Good take. With salary cap you either manage to find team chemistry along with excpensive players or you build a Vegas or Kraken.

 

[BruinsFan37]

1 player? Sure
2 players? Sure as long as you don't overspend on other bad Contracts (Edmonton)
3 players? Danger Will Robertson. You'd better have near perfect management of your other assets or you're in trouble (Toronto)
4 players? Haha no

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Both teams are against the cap and struggle each off season to make the necessary additions needed because they cant afford them.

Again How?

While it's true that you can't just assume the salary cap will go up every year, the flat cap for the past few years has been unprecedented. Neither team would have the same cap issues (they might have different cap issues, but not the same ones) had there been no COVID shutdown.

 

[57special]

Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kopi, Crosby, Malkin, all got paid AFTER they won a Cup. Bergeron and marchand never really did. So, ya.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

The max player percentages kind of work in that direction.

 

[LokiDog]

Short answer is no. Long answer is… It’s a simplification. Overall poor management, potential internal/cultural issues regarding a long time with contending, unbalanced roster construction, etc. all plays a role in this. At the same time, im positive Sid at 8.7M throughout his career left money on the table for the goal of keeping the team together/winning. I believe Zetterberg and Lidstrom did the same.

In terms of current situations … sure the cap seems bound to go up, everyone wants to max out their potential, AND hockey is already the lowest paying sport… but, yeah, the precedent in Toronto sucks now. Everyone wants 8 figures, everyone wants to be paid and the team isn’t sound in the areas it needs to be. Nylander is awesome but is he AS awesome if he’s the main attraction? Matthews or McDavid. Pettersson, Hughes, Makar, whoever. Sure they’re making top dollar and then you produce similarly and believe you deserve similar, but what if you didn’t have Matthews, Marner, Tavares? Are you genuinely a $10M player? Maybe. Maybe not.

The NHL isn’t ever going to be the top earning league and thus, my attitude is that the players know that going in. McDavid could be better than Micheal Jordan, he won’t ever earn more. With that in mind, why go for (for example) $10M x8 instead of $8M x8? You’re never gonna earn big US athlete money playing in the NHL. Ever. Might as well just win f***ing Cups, still make millions, set yourself up with a legacy and a future. Like I know money talks and everyone wants as much of it as possible. But if you could have a 15 year career worth 60M and win 3 cups or 15 years worth 80M and win zero? I don’t know. $20M is a MASSIVE difference. But also, most people won’t ever know what it feels like to earn 1M.

Once we’re talking about 10, 20, 30, 75, 100, 200, etc. you’ve entirely lost me. As a 36 year old father I can’t even wrap my brain around wanting to leave your “family” and “the city that’s done so much for us” so you can earn 80M over 7 years rather than 70M over 7 years. I literally can’t. My wife and I would take $200k right now to stay where we are are over $300k to move across the country.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

McDavid got his buddies Nurse and Brown over-priced contracts, so he added fuel to his own fire...

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

What was the cap percentage for Ovi and Crosby at the time? Maybe an extra 2-3 million allows a GM to work some magic but I don't think that'd change things for Toronto and Edmonton. Edmonton in particular has wasted nearly 6 million by overpaying Nurse and paying Campbell period.

Crosby took up roughly 17% give or take when he signed for 8.7M in 2008. Matthews currently takes up only 14% (new deal hasn't kicked it yet) while McDavid takes up 15%

In other words, Pittsburgh had an even tougher time fitting Crosby and Malkin under the much steeper cap of the early 2010s yet managed to string together three Stanley Cup wins. Cap has nothing to do with Toronto or Edmonton failing to go the distance. It's simply a combination of poor management, underperforming players and/or just not getting lucky.

Much as it's fun to meme on both, winning 16 games does take a certain amount of luck. A few odd bounces here or there and Toronto easily wins one of their game sevens against Boston.

One thing Pittsburgh and Chicago had during their runs was stellar goaltender. Which has eluded both Edmonton and Toronto for years.

 

[mriswith]

McDavid would literally be a bargain on a max contract.

 

[Siludin]

It's not the % cap at the time of signing that is the issue, it's the fact that it has been relatively flat for 50% of their careers, and specifically during both players' primes. Their parent clubs will not have had the flexibility to add adjust and retool in successive years like Chicago/Washington/Pittsburgh did. Those teams went through 3 windows of contention each, whereas McDavid's Edmonton and Matthews' Toronto will likely only have two contention windows separated by longer non-contention eras where the team is bubbling/not a playoff team.

 

[wetcoast]

No because the cap will go up

Pretty much this and one would also have to explain exactly what players both teams lost because of their salaries right?

 

[J bo Jeans]

Signed to nearly the exact same percentage of the cap as Malkin and Crosby did. Any one saying yes is misinformed

 

[KevinRedkey]

McDavid would literally be a bargain on a max contract.

16.300 is the max. Based off last year, that would mean he'd have gotten paid $106,536 per point.

While you can argue he's worth that - it's certainly not a "bargain". Not to mention 153 points is unrealistic to expect every year. If he were to dip to 123 (his previous career high), that number would baloon to $132,520/point which is nearly the same as Kopitar, Hayes, Copp, and Matthews last year. No one considered their salaries to be bargains for what they offered last year.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Signed to nearly the exact same percentage of the cap as Malkin and Crosby did. Any one saying yes is misinformed

This.

The Pens won the cup in 2009, 2016, and 2017.
In 2009, Crosby and Malkin combined for 17.08% of the cap (Malkin was on his ELC).
In 2016, it was 25.49% (no more ELC)
In 2017, it was 24.93%

McDrai combine for 25.15% of the cap.
Assuming a ~4% increase, next year they will be at ~24.19%
The following year at ~23.27%

The whole "cap has been stagnant' thing is just an excuse. Contracts like Ceci, Nurse, and Campbell are the problem. Most Cup winners don't habe that type of mismanagement.