Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[daver]

+/- is not an accurate stat to describe a player but -62 in 1.5 seasons is impressive

Ovie was -17 in his first two seasons, Sid was +9. Both were on pretty bad teams first couple of seasons

The Pens made the playoffs in their 2nd season.

A bit too early to pile on his 2-way game on what seems to be a very weak Blackhawk team. Not sure he was ever advertised as bringing much to the table other than offense which is fine.

Probably the biggest disappointment is the goalscoring at this point. Would not be surprised to see him start getting those in a bunch.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

At the 38 game mark, he's right where he was at this time last year:

Last season's first 38 games:

This season thru 38 games:

Identical point totals, but the ES/PP splits are way different, with twice as many PP points vs this time last season. Luckily, the PP has been much better this year with the addition of Teravainen and Bertuzzi. Last year, if he wasn't directly setting up the goal, they pretty much weren't scoring. He only had 4 goals and 3 secondary assists on the PP for all of last year. This year, he's already matched the 4 goals from last season, with 7 secondary assists, half the season left!

Unfortunately, the new additions haven't made the same sort of impact at ES, and Bedard's overall offensive game has been noticeably less effective at times. He had 92 ES shots at this point last year vs only 67 this year. So his drop in SOG year over year is almost completely from ES shots.

His shooting speed metrics have dropped considerably as well. He was in the 89th percentile in total shots between 80-90 mph last year, and that's with missing 14 games. He probably would have been 95th+ percentile had he played the whole season. This year, he's down to the 80th percentile, you can see the difference in his splits vs last year:

Add in the fact that his faceoff numbers have also inexplicably dropped nearly 10 points, and it makes me wonder if he incurred some sort of upper body injury, likely around late October. Here are the relevant splits:

I brought up this possibility a few months ago when he visibly struggling. You could argue it was just a cratering of his confidence under Richardson, but I am not sure that explains the drop off in shooting volume, velocity, and faceoff. I know they started trying him more at wing during November, I wonder if that was to limit his faceoff duties?

The good news is that outside of that poor stretch, his play this year hasn't really been any worse than last year. I think he's going to have a really strong finish to the season.

 

[Jacob]

He's at 31% on faceoffs? That's gotta be the worst faceoff numbers for any regular centerman since those kind of stats have been recorded.

 

[Goose]

He's at 31% on faceoffs? That's gotta be the worst faceoff numbers for any regular centerman since those kind of stats have been recorded.

Yeah he’s awful. His total number of faceoffs is pretty low though, he must be getting used much less than average on the draw for his position to boot.

That’s ridiculously bad though, like Shaq free throw % bad.

 

[shello]

To be fair on Bedard, he literally plays with no one. Even Crosby had some help when he first got to Pittsburgh. Hawks went too far down the hole getting Bedard they’ve created a losing culture

 

[Bombshell11]

Yeah he’s awful. His total number of faceoffs is pretty low though, he must be getting used much less than average on the draw for his position to boot.

That’s ridiculously bad though, like Shaq free throw % bad.

Its worst when he loses them because he's really bad defensively so by losing the draw the hawks are essentially defending 5 vs 3, often he's just defending with his eyes floating around waiting for a puck to get free.

To be fair on Bedard, he literally plays with no one. Even Crosby had some help when he first got to Pittsburgh. Hawks went too far down the hole getting Bedard they’ve created a losing culture

They did it because bedard was supposed to be a Franchise player, he got so hyped that everyone forgot about hockey.

 

[ClydeLee]

They did it because bedard was supposed to be a Franchise player, he got so hyped that everyone forgot about hockey.

Is this what people think? The timing was far more about where they were after Bowman tried to stay afloat for years, retool on the fly, say they were going to rebuild and change his mind 1 year later to try to save his job, etc. Then the only hopeful outlook when the new GM Davidson took over, was tear down for a long term rebuild. The GM said it was from the start a 3, 5, or however long it takes plan.

The blackhawks did not just tank to get Bedard and think Bedard would make them good again. If you think that, you're way outta the net. You can disagree of it being a good plan, but it was the path.

 

[RickyLafleur]

This guy is supposed to be the next Crosby, McDavid but cant do anything with the slugs on his team while Celebrini is PPG and killing it on an arguably just as bad team.

 

[Bombshell11]

Is this what people think? The timing was far more about where they were after Bowman tried to stay afloat for years, retool on the fly, say they were going to rebuild and change his mind 1 year later to try to save his job, etc. Then the only hopeful outlook when the new GM Davidson took over, was tear down for a long term rebuild. The GM said it was from the start a 3, 5, or however long it takes plan.

The blackhawks did not just tank to get Bedard and think Bedard would make them good again. If you think that, you're way outta the net. You can disagree of it being a good plan, but it was the path.

"TSN analyst Craig Button, a former Calgary Flames general manager, said: “When you get a player like Connor Bedard — no different than Mario Lemieux , no different than Sidney Crosby, no different than Connor McDavid — you might not be close to winning the Stanley Cup, but you know that you can be a Stanley Cup contender with that player in your lineup. That’s what the Blackhawks now have.”"

-Chicago Tribune

 

[ClydeLee]

"TSN analyst Craig Button, a former Calgary Flames general manager, said: “When you get a player like Connor Bedard — no different than Mario Lemieux , no different than Sidney Crosby, no different than Connor McDavid — you might not be close to winning the Stanley Cup, but you know that you can be a Stanley Cup contender with that player in your lineup. That’s what the Blackhawks now have.”"

-Chicago Tribune

Okay one source.

heres from Corey Pronman at the Atheletic, talking about his and other NHL evaluators views.

"the NHL voters I asked mostly felt there was a gap between McDavid and Bedard at the same age. It’s tough to define what exactly “generational” means, so I reframed the question to ask whether Bedard is at the same level as a prospect as McDavid was at the same age. While there’s been the odd voice I talk to in the NHL who feels it’s close between the two players at the same age, most feel there’s a clear distinction and would not call Bedard a McDavid-level prospect. Bedard is just as prolific, if not a slightly more prolific scorer than McDavid was as a junior. The distinction would be the athletic traits. McDavid was a much bigger player, and while Bedard skates well, McDavid is the best skater in the world and was a far better skater at the same age. For those reasons, most of the NHL voters did not view Bedard as a true generational prospect"

Earlier in this thread or some other Bedard thread, a poll from here, between 2/3 or 3/4th of people had Bedard as not Mcdavid/Crosby level.

The 1/3 view may be louder and more annoying if you disagree with them. But we should be comprehending adults able to distinguish between vocal minorities and actual backed up views. And scouts aren't always right, but why should we treat the minority view as consensus? Because it's an easier marketing sell? It's not thinking for yourself. If it was your view based on watching a prospect, that's fine. It's your view.

Anywhoo, that Button quote is kinda qauint. Lemieux made the playoffs 1 time in his first 6 seasons. Bedards Blackhawks are more like those Pens than McDavids Oilers with 3 former 1sts and a 3rd the year before. Or Crosbys 1st and 2nd drafted before him. The Blackhawks tore off the doors of an aging team that rushed most high prospects they had before. Years of being this awful was inevitable.

 

[Bombshell11]

Okay one source.

heres from Corey Pronman at the Atheletic, talking about his and other NHL evaluators views.

"the NHL voters I asked mostly felt there was a gap between McDavid and Bedard at the same age. It’s tough to define what exactly “generational” means, so I reframed the question to ask whether Bedard is at the same level as a prospect as McDavid was at the same age. While there’s been the odd voice I talk to in the NHL who feels it’s close between the two players at the same age, most feel there’s a clear distinction and would not call Bedard a McDavid-level prospect. Bedard is just as prolific, if not a slightly more prolific scorer than McDavid was as a junior. The distinction would be the athletic traits. McDavid was a much bigger player, and while Bedard skates well, McDavid is the best skater in the world and was a far better skater at the same age. For those reasons, most of the NHL voters did not view Bedard as a true generational prospect"

Earlier in this thread or some other Bedard thread, a poll from here, between 2/3 or 3/4th of people had Bedard as not Mcdavid/Crosby level.

The 1/3 view may be louder and more annoying if you disagree with them. But we should be comprehending adults able to distinguish between vocal minorities and actual backed up views. And scouts aren't always right, but why should we treat the minority view as consensus? Because it's an easier marketing sell? It's not thinking for yourself. If it was your view based on watching a prospect, that's fine. It's your view.

Anywhoo, that Button quote is kinda qauint. Lemieux made the playoffs 1 time in his first 6 seasons. Bedards Blackhawks are more like those Pens than McDavids Oilers with 3 former 1sts and a 3rd the year before. Or Crosbys 1st and 2nd drafted before him. The Blackhawks tore off the doors of an aging team that rushed most high prospects they had before. Years of being this awful was inevitable.

Craig Button, Button, a former NHL executive and scout, is TSN's director of scouting. He serves as an analyst on TSN's That's Hockey as well as the network's regional NHL broadcasts. He's also known for his “Craig's List” ranking of NHL Draft prospects each year.



Guys pointing the finger at everyone else but Bedard

NHL should market Connor Bedard properly

It's rare that a talent like Blackhawks rookie Connor Bedard enters the NHL and it's important the league makes the most of the buzz around the prospect. Watch the full Zone Time on our YouTube channel or listen on the podcast feed.

ca.sports.yahoo.com

Yahoo people are saying he's not being marketed enough basicly


There's a disconnect between the mainstream narrative and the product on the ice. And this is why we're having an issue. The corporate world is trying to dictate who is the chosen one rather than letting the free market decide.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Your having a issue bud every since he got drafted.

 

[authentic]

News alert, AM was more physically mature when he was drafted than Bedard.

This thread is about Bedard.


The hype was warranted and he is excelling compared to his draft class in a crappy situation, Rome wasn't built in a day.

That’s a big part of why he’s better for sure. I didn’t introduce Matthews to the conversation though I was just responding to another post.

 

[Voight]

This guy is supposed to be the next Crosby, McDavid but cant do anything with the slugs on his team while Celebrini is PPG and killing it on an arguably just as bad team.

San Jose has more talent now and last year compared to the Hawks.

 

[barkovcanfinnish]

He’s had total dogshit for linemates. At least McDavid had Draisaitl to work with early on. Matthews had Marner and Nylander to work with early on. Who the f*** does Bedard have to play with right now? Ilya Mikheyev and Joey Anderson? Barf enducing.

The closest player to Bedard’s abilities on the Hawks is probably Teuvo Teravainen, who is a decent second-liner on most teams. Still not good enough to keep up with Bedard every night.

He’s an amazing player and it sucks to see him lose his confidence with linemates who are 4th line quality most nights. If they can’t get Hagens or Martone in the upcoming draft then they gotta get someone actually good in free agency, at least to help Bedard reach his potential.

To be honest, they should probably still do that even if they get one of those guys in the draft. Their team is god awful and I don’t have a ton of confidence in most of their prospects to pan out.

 

[RickyLafleur]

San Jose has more talent now and last year compared to the Hawks.

Bedard is in his D2 year vs Celeibrini D1. Both teams are complete trash if you look at the lineups, oof that defense.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Quite a difference in the situations when people are comparing the Hawks to the Oilers or Penguins.

The Blackhawks got Bedard early in their rebuild process so of course he'll be on some bad teams for the first few years. Korchinski was the only top 10 pick drafted before him during this rebuild. Levshunov drafted 2nd overall the year after Bedard. The next draft will add another high pick (likely top 4) but that still only gives them three top 10 picks so far with a third to come before next season.

McDavid joined the Oilers much later in comparison.
The Oilers had already drafted 1st over all 3x in the 5 drafts before he got there.
They also drafted 3rd and 7th and added 4th overall the year after. That's seven top 10 picks.

The Penguins drafted 5th (Whitney,) 1st (Fleury,) 2nd (Malkin,) 1st (Crosby,) and 2nd (Stall) during a 5 year span. Five top 10 picks in a row.

Be patient. This isn't going to be a quick rebuild. I expect at least another year or two of high picks.

 

[shello]

Its worst when he loses them because he's really bad defensively so by losing the draw the hawks are essentially defending 5 vs 3, often he's just defending with his eyes floating around waiting for a puck to get free.



They did it because bedard was supposed to be a Franchise player, he got so hyped that everyone forgot about hockey.

And that's where the Hawks poor management comes in and apparently Craig Button's too based off your below quote of him. Talent can only get you so far in hockey. Pens prevented this well with Sid, who was hyped tenfold. But they built a team that had a vast safety net of players who've won before like Recchi, Lemieux, LeClair, etc so when Crosby came in he wasn't just left alone surrounded by people who've never won

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

No Goalie stat is relevant if you're looking at it this way. Sv% is more relevant to the goalie than GAA. A goalie can't dictate how many shots he's going to face per game but he has an impact on how many go in. To say sv% is shit is equally dumb as saying +/- is shit. Every player on the ice has an impact on the efficiency of team when they're on the ice.

Just like Donato's points this year, no one is thinking that he's that player, we all know its due to the Hawks situation that he's getting to play more important minutes. To his merit he's been capitalizing on his opportunity so we can't also entirely discredit his work.

You can't just nit pick one stat and establish a solid conclusion of a player. You have to use comparables.

People who try to minimize a stat are just as clueless as the people who judge a player solely on his offensive production.

Never said it shit. Said it was as relevant as +/-.

 

[Dolemite]

Bedard is in his D2 year vs Celeibrini D1. Both teams are complete trash if you look at the lineups, oof that defense.

I was going to use the word pylons but trash works too.

Craig Button, Button, a former NHL executive and scout, is TSN's director of scouting. He serves as an analyst on TSN's That's Hockey as well as the network's regional NHL broadcasts. He's also known for his “Craig's List” ranking of NHL Draft prospects each year.



Guys pointing the finger at everyone else but Bedard

NHL should market Connor Bedard properly

It's rare that a talent like Blackhawks rookie Connor Bedard enters the NHL and it's important the league makes the most of the buzz around the prospect. Watch the full Zone Time on our YouTube channel or listen on the podcast feed.

ca.sports.yahoo.com

Yahoo people are saying he's not being marketed enough basicly


There's a disconnect between the mainstream narrative and the product on the ice. And this is why we're having an issue. The corporate world is trying to dictate who is the chosen one rather than letting the free market decide.

It’s hard to market someone who is on a team of pylons.

 

[Mattb124]

San Jose has more talent now and last year compared to the Hawks.

Last season the Sharks had the second lowest point % in the cap era (2005 —> present) and the worst wasn’t this or last year’s Blackhawks. The Hawk’s point % last season was 10%+ better than the Sharks and their goal differential was -111 versus -150. It seems like the only indication that the Sharks had more talent last year is you saying it.

 

[Boxscore]

Bedard is coming out of the gate more like Patrick Kane and less like Crosby or McDavid. I think next season is going to be huge for him... curious to see if he remains in the 80-85 point range or starts trending towards the 95-100 range. I think kids like Michkov and Celebrini will begin flirting with 95-100 as soon as next year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard is coming out of the gate more like Patrick Kane and less like Crosby or McDavid. I think next season is going to be huge for him... curious to see if he remains in the 80-85 point range or starts trending towards the 95-100 range. I think kids like Michkov and Celebrini will begin flirting with 95-100 as soon as next year.

He's not in the 80-85 point range quite yet, though I'm hopeful he can get there by the end of the year.

To this point, he's paced in the 70-75 point range, on pace for 71 points this year and 74 last year. Pretty much identical to Kane's start, though scoring is higher today. He'll need to finish at a 92 point pace in his last 43 games to hit 82 points.

But I agree that next year will be a bigger jump for him. Kane hit 30 goals 88 points in his 3rd year, which put him 9th in scoring back then. 9th in scoring last year was 103 points. I don't think Bedard will quite reach that level, but 90 points seems doable.

 

[93LEAFS]

News alert, AM was more physically mature when he was drafted than Bedard.

I mean, sure, but Matthews entered the league at like 6'3 215, and is one of the bigger elite centers in the league. It's not like Bedard even with maturity will ever have that athletic advantage. Those are physical traits someone simply isn't going to magically gain with age. He's built much closer to Marner while being more stocky, and it's not like Marner has gotten significantly bigger. Over time he just learned how to avoid the limitations of his frame at the NHL level.

 

[nbwingsfan]

"TSN analyst Craig Button, a former Calgary Flames general manager, said: “When you get a player like Connor Bedard — no different than Mario Lemieux , no different than Sidney Crosby, no different than Connor McDavid — you might not be close to winning the Stanley Cup, but you know that you can be a Stanley Cup contender with that player in your lineup. That’s what the Blackhawks now have.”"

-Chicago Tribune

Yes I’m sure that Craig Button clearly meant that they would be contenders by the 2025 season