Has Colorado’s core underachieved?.

[Cool Hand Puke]

With who they've had in net with this core (up until a couple months ago), theyre lucky to even have 1 cup.

Career backup and one eyed Kuemper won us a cup… think about that for a minute

 

[Cool Hand Puke]

I'm not an Avs fan. Dallas has a better coach. That's it. There's a reason why Duchene, Benn, Pavelski, and Seguin all came back from the dead with the Stars.

People are acting like the team that came into the playoffs on the road was someone underachieving by not winning

 

[ScottyMascotty]

Binomial distribution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Lets analyse this from probability theory perspective. If we consider each playoff run as an independent experiment, measure of succesful experiment is winning the Cup in given year, and the probability of success is the same in every experiment, then we can use formulas of binomial distribution.
Imagine we have 8 playoff runs with probability of winning each year of 0.1/10% (typical for one of the top contenders). Then the probability of not winning the Cup at all in these 8 playoff runs is around 43%. The probability of winning just once is close to 38%. The probability of winning the Cup twice is almost 15%, and the probability of winning three times is marginally bigger than 3%. The probability of winning 4+ times is even less. So in the end you have just 19% probability of winning the Cup more than once in 8 playoff runs with these chances.

Predictive models usually give the biggest Cup favorite around 15% chances in a given year, but in the salary cap era it's hard to imagine one team with the same core being that dominant for so many years.

 

[Sky04]

Not really. There’s 32 teams. Hard to win multiple Cups

How about getting out of the 2nd round more than once though.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Prolly have another 5-6 year window, this thread is early. If the don’t win another cup definitely yes.

 

[The Burdened]

Should have won more.
Like the 90s Atlanta Braves yeah you won 1 title, but you should have won more

Even some West Conference titles would be something. They were too good to only have 1 playoff run.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

Colorado has been able to draft two franchise cornerstones, one being one of the best offensive players of the 21st century and the other being a generational defensemen. They also have solid impact players in Toews, Girard, Landeskog, a superstar in Rantanen(until this year), Nichushkin, and now Necas. You can’t call a cup a disappointment but you’d have hoped for more with this group of players.

Results since 2018:
2018: First round exit in 6(Preds)
2019: Second round in 7(Sharks)
2020: Second round(Dallas)
2021: Second round(Vegas)
2022: Cup
2023: First round to Seattle in 7
2024: First round to Dallas in 6
2025: Second round to Dallas in 7

Is one cup enough, or should they have achieved more? They should’ve beaten at least some of the teams that knocked them out, such as Seattle in 2023. One playoff run past the second round with Makar and MacKinnon seems underwhelming.

2nd round in 2025?

 

[RevengeOfTheDrai]

2nd round in 2025?

Good catch, I switched up 2024 and 2025.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

1998, 1999, 2000 and 2002 should've been cup winning years IMO.

No.

They weren’t beating those 98 and 2002 Detroit teams.

1999 and 2000 Dallas were monsters.

1995 to 2003 the 4 best teams were NJD, COL, DAL and DTW. They stole cups from each other which is why there were dynasties in the traditional sense.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

MacKinnon era passed 2nd round once, lost 5 gm7
answer Yes

 

[MoneyManny]

If a core wins a cup it's not underachieving ever. 32 teams now, multiple cups are hard to win.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Colorado has been able to draft two franchise cornerstones, one being one of the best offensive players of the 21st century and the other being a generational defensemen. They also have solid impact players in Toews, Girard, Landeskog, a superstar in Rantanen(until this year), Nichushkin, and now Necas. You can’t call a cup a disappointment but you’d have hoped for more with this group of players.

Results since 2018:
2018: First round exit in 6(Preds)
2019: Second round in 7(Sharks)
2020: Second round in 7(Dallas)
2021: Second round in 6(Vegas)
2022: Cup
2023: First round to Seattle in 7
2024: Second round to Dallas in 6
2025: First round to Dallas in 7

Is one cup enough, or should they have achieved more? They should’ve beaten at least some of the teams that knocked them out, such as Seattle in 2023. One playoff run past the second round with Makar and MacKinnon seems underwhelming.

I think we can make a good argument for revamping the playoff brackets based on the above. It’s pretty much killed variance.

 

[S E P H]

A ton of game 7 losses. Meaning the team is always there in the fight, but are doing something wrong to never get over the hump.

 

[Dynamite Time]

I wouldn’t say Avs underachieved this postseason; losing to Dallas is why this thread is up. Stars were without Heiskanen and Robertson but still deep (along with a guy named Rantanen who caught fire) although a little light on defense however Oettinger offset that.

Shitty to see two of the top three in the West have to meet round 1 but it is what it is with the format; needs to go back to 1 vs 8 etc.

They did have early postseason exits in previous years where they were expected to win but the postseason is a different game and great to see when a team not expected to win steps up and does.

As others have said though it shows you how difficult it is to have everything click and win the Cup, which they did. Could they have won a second one… sure; but you can’t say they should’ve won another one.

 

[ExarKun80]

100%.
I expected them to be the next Chicago who during their first cup in 2010 had one of the most stacked teams in the modern era just like the AVS had in 2022. Chicago lost some key players after 2010 but managed to reload around their elite core and win in 2013 & 2015. Trading Rantanen closed that window shut since they won't be alble to get past the Oilers or Dallas in the next years. Dallas had their 2 best players injured and still won. AVS without Mack and Makar would have been swept by Dallas. You just can't replace a player like Rantanen in his prime. They could not even replace Kadri and that's why they did nothing after 2022.

 

[Pavels Dog]

As good as Mackinnon and Makar are, I've never liked their depth, especially up front.
Like, I've almost never looked at an Avs lineup and been impressed by the 2nd or 3rd lines.
Very top heavy team, in the playoffs that's a difficult model to make work, as we've seen as well with Toronto, Edmonton etc.

 

[amigo]

Stubborn coach, struggles with special teams, injuries,addiction problems with Nuke and Girard, bad or mediocre goalies, overplaying star players and trying to build chemistry month before playoffs equals this result.

 

[Goose]

It’s so damned hard to win a cup in a 30+ team league, I don’t think anyone who wins one can really be underachieving.

 

[Miri]

Binomial distribution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Lets analyse this from probability theory perspective. If we consider each playoff run as an independent experiment, measure of succesful experiment is winning the Cup in given year, and the probability of success is the same in every experiment, then we can use formulas of binomial distribution.
Imagine we have 8 playoff runs with probability of winning each year of 0.1/10% (typical for one of the top contenders). Then the probability of not winning the Cup at all in these 8 playoff runs is around 43%. The probability of winning just once is close to 38%. The probability of winning the Cup twice is almost 15%, and the probability of winning three times is marginally bigger than 3%. The probability of winning 4+ times is even less. So in the end you have just 19% probability of winning the Cup more than once in 8 playoff runs with these chances.

Predictive models usually give the biggest Cup favorite around 15% chances in a given year, but in the salary cap era it's hard to imagine one team with the same core being that dominant for so many years.

View attachment 1031183

Thanks for posting this. Hopefully all those people, who think Avs are underachieving will see this and get a grip.

 

[nbwingsfan]

2018: first round exit in 6(Preds)
2019: Second round in 7(Sharks)
2020: Second round(Dallas)

These years shouldnt count towards any under-achievement label they were clearly building still as a bubble team in '18 & '19.

2020 was the start of high hopes but they had their 3rd string goalie play the remaining games of that dallas series I believe. Hard to win with the Michael Hutchinson as your starter.

2021 Vegas def stung, but no Kadri for that series due to a suspension in the first round
this was where you could make a case of cup expectations. they could have def beat vegas with Kadri and ultimately had a chance to take on Tampa for the cup.

Marchand and Bergeron and Boston by this logic has massively underachieved with their one cup in their career. If Mack and Makar go that same route ill agree but right now they are still in a position to take a crack at multiple cups. Sid didnt win again till almost 10 years after his first one.

Sure but Narchand and Bergeron at least made it to game 6 & 7 of the SCF as well while losing massive parts of their core along the way as well. And they still underachieved a bit. Avs haven’t been able to get past the 2nd round

 

[MBTendy]

I'm not an Avs fan. Dallas has a better coach. That's it. There's a reason why Duchene, Benn, Pavelski, and Seguin all came back from the dead with the Stars.

The Stars have a better goalie, better overall team depth and more top end scorers.

But sure Colorado is better hence why we own them every year in playoffs

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

If we combined all of the masses of fans from all different fanbases who say their team “should have won more” over a given time period, we would need five Cups given out a year to satisfy those expectations.

Every time I hear people say “should have won more” it comes off as fans just being removed from how difficult it is to consistently be THE BEST team out of 32 total teams in the best hockey league in the world over multiple years. There’s a single Championship once a year. Even the most recent “dynasties” of Chicago and Pittsburgh have maxed out at 3 each.

The Bruins have been to three Cups since 2011 and won one, and I hear constantly from fellow fans how they should have won more. Like how many should they have been to? 7? And they should have won 5? They were the “best” team all of those years?

In Colorado’s case, they still have their stars. The question is a little silly as it is, but I’m not even sure there’s any point in asking it given that their window is far from closed. When you’ve got a core like that, you can essentially go for it every year.

 

[RevengeOfTheDrai]

Every time I hear people say “should have won more” it comes off as fans just being removed from how difficult it is to consistently be THE BEST team out of 32 total teams in the best hockey league in the world over multiple years.

It’s difficult to be the best team year to year, but the Avs have a generational defenseman and a near generational center both in their primes and both great playoff performers. You don’t delt a better hand than that. My biggest gripe is that they haven’t come close to the Stanley cup with the exception of 2022, never made it past the second round otherwise. If they continue along this path they’ll be remembered like the Capitals in 2018, a run where all the stars aligned, when in reality those Avs rosters matched or exceeded the dynasties we’ve seen with Chicago and Pittsburg. They should be remembered like those teams. The only team I recall recently that “should’ve won more” are the Ovi era Capitals. I don’t remember another franchise in the cap era that had such great franchise cornerstones that consistently crashed out so early in the playoffs with the exception of one run.

Even if one Stanley cup isn’t underachieving, one WCF is a very poor return on investment for the Avs talent level.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

As good as Mackinnon and Makar are, I've never liked their depth, especially up front.
Like, I've almost never looked at an Avs lineup and been impressed by the 2nd or 3rd lines.
Very top heavy team, in the playoffs that's a difficult model to make work, as we've seen as well with Toronto, Edmonton etc.

They indeed had a lot of depth in 2022 and Rantanen was a big part of that cup win as well.

 

[ujju2]

Yah. Exactly my point. Those old cups don’t hold much weight today do they? Look at my oilers. 5 cup, last one in 90 six years before the avs first one. Doesn’t mean much to me and certainly not worth arguing over or using as some “gotcha” to prove a point online.

Winning the cup is everything for the players, it’s their accomplishment and no one can take that away from them ever. But as a fan it’s doesn’t mean anything. It’s doesn’t make you a better fan.

So your team wins a cup in 2022, it’s now 2052. Your team has had a run of bad luck. Getting knocked of the playoffs early for a years and then rebuilds and it doesn’t go smoothly. And it’s been a few years since you made the playoffs. Are you, as a fan still whipping and high diving that cup win in 2022 and using it as a point in arguments with other fans about why your team doesn’t suck?

I know for me in my 40s I’m not using the 90 cup win for the oilers for anything other than a historic fact. So you won it. Cool. Whats happening now?

This is a weak argument because by 2052 MacKinnon and Makar are gonna be a fond but distant memory regardless of how many cups they win. Say the Avs won the cup in 2022, 2023, and 2025. In 2052 is that really going to make a difference? No. That's why we continue to watch as fans - the current season will always matter. Any success or lack thereof by 2052 would be a function of the management, drafting, and overall level of the team in the year 2052 and the years immediately preceding, not a reflection of the success the team has in the 2020s.