Hart Trophy Tournament (Post 2000's) Round 1: 2008 Ovechkin vs 2022 Matthews

[blundluntman]

MATCHUP #7: Alexander Ovechkin (2008) vs Auston Matthews (2022)

Alexander Ovechkin (2007-08)
82 GP 65 G 47 A 112 Points | 1st In Scoring, 1st in Goals

Auston Matthews (2021-22):
73 GP 60 G 46 A 106 Points | 6th in Scoring, 1st goals, Top 10 Selke Voting

Round 1 Matchups:
Sakic 01 vs Crosby 14 Thread
Theodore 02 vs Price 15 Thread
Forsberg 03 vs Kane 16 Thread
St. Louis 04 vs Kucherov 19 Thread
Thornton 06 vs Hall 18 Thread
Crosby 07 vs McDavid 17 Thread
Ovechkin 08 vs Matthews 22
Ovechkin 09 vs Malkin 12
Sedin 10 vs Draisaitl 20
Perry 11 vs McDavid 21
Ovechkin 13 vs McDavid 23

Click to read more...

 

[DitchMarner]

I think that when you factor in importance to team (which is relevant since we are comparing Hart seasons), Ovechkin wins. His season feels more like a carry-job.

Matthews was better in his own end, but I'm not sure he was actually any better at impacting five on five or ES goal differential positively for his team.

It's pretty obvious Ovechkin's season is better since he scored more goals and points in a lower-scoring season and won the Art Ross as well as the Rocket. However, when you consider that Matthews missed nine games and received less PP time, the question of who the better player was becomes a closer call.

 

[blundluntman]

I think that when you factor in importance to team (which is relevant since we are comparing Hart seasons), Ovechkin wins. His season feels more like a carry-job.

Matthews was better in his own end, but I'm not sure he was actually any better at impacting five on five or ES goal differential positively for his team.

It's pretty obvious Ovechkin's season is better since he scored more goals and points in a lower-scoring season and won the Art Ross as well as the Rocket. However, when you consider that Matthews missed nine games and received less PP time, the question of who the better player was becomes a closer call.

Yeah this is one that looks to be overwhelmingly in Ovi's favor at the surface, but factoring in gp and two way play bridges the gap a bit. Ovi was better offensively for sure, but Matthews' play on the other end of the ice bridges the gap a bit. PPG wise he was pretty close to winning the Ross that year if he hadn't missed those 9 games while being a great 2 way player. It's still decisively Ovi for me but Matthews was no slouch.

 

[The Macho King]

Ovi by a mile. This is that brief peak of freak Ovi. Dude was an absolute freight train who created his own offense.

 

[Regal]

We can talk about how Matthews’ defensive and possession game led to great underlying numbers and that his PPG and lack of PP time meant the production wasn’t far apart, etc, but it’s all on-paper assessments. In reality is anyone taking Matthews at his best over Ovechkin at his best in a must win game?

 

[Midnight Judges]

I don't know why Matthews has some sort of a label as a two way player, especially in 2022. He didn't kill penalties in 2022 (4 seconds per game) and he was deployed overwhelmingly for offense just like Ovechkin - Matthews's offensive zone starts were basically identical to Ovechkin's (69.9% for Matthews vs 69.8% for Ovechkin).

Matthews was on the ice for significantly more ES goals against (81 ES GA for Matthews vs 66 for Ovechkin) despite Ovechkin playing significantly more ES minutes (1406 to 1274).

The Leafs were giving up more goals per minute with Matthews on the ice, so where is the impact of this alleged defense? Is somebody going to argue that Mike Green plus a bunch of scrubs were somehow an advantage for Ovie in terms of preventing goals against?

 

[The Macho King]

I don't know why Matthews has some sort of a label as a two way player, especially in 2022. He didn't kill penalties in 2022 (4 seconds per game) and he was deployed overwhelmingly for offense just like Ovechkin - Matthews's offensive zone starts were basically identical to Ovechkin's (69.9% for Matthews vs 69.8% for Ovechkin).

Matthews was on the ice for significantly more ES goals against (81 ES GA for Matthews vs 66 for Ovechkin) despite Ovechkin playing significantly more ES minutes (1406 to 1274).

If the Leafs were giving up more goals per minute with Matthews on the ice, where is the impact of this alleged defense? Is somebody going to argue that Mike Green (lol) plus a bunch of scrubs were somehow an advantage for Ovie in terms of preventing goals against?

TBF no one is really making that argument here. This is unanimous so far.

 

[Regal]

I don't know why Matthews has some sort of a label as a two way player, especially in 2022. He didn't kill penalties in 2022 (4 seconds per game) and he was deployed overwhelmingly for offense just like Ovechkin - Matthews's offensive zone starts were basically identical to Ovechkin's (69.9% for Matthews vs 69.8% for Ovechkin).

Matthews was on the ice for significantly more ES goals against (81 ES GA for Matthews vs 66 for Ovechkin) despite Ovechkin playing significantly more ES minutes (1406 to 1274).

The Leafs were giving up more goals per minute with Matthews on the ice, so where is the impact of this alleged defense? Is somebody going to argue that Mike Green plus a bunch of scrubs were somehow an advantage for Ovie in terms of preventing goals against?

Goalies play into goals against and you don’t have to play a PK role to have a defensive impact. In terms of expected goals against and regression analytics he had a strong defensive year.

 

[filinski77]

I think that when you factor in importance to team (which is relevant since we are comparing Hart seasons), Ovechkin wins. His season feels more like a carry-job.

Matthews was better in his own end, but I'm not sure he was actually any better at impacting five on five or ES goal differential positively for his team.

It's pretty obvious Ovechkin's season is better since he scored more goals and points in a lower-scoring season and won the Art Ross as well as the Rocket. However, when you consider that Matthews missed nine games and received less PP time, the question of who the better player was becomes a closer call.

To be fair, on a per game basis, Ovechkin was almost twice as dominant relative to his peers than Matthews was (18% lead over #10 vs. 11%), while maintaining a stronger lead over peers in goals/gp as well.

	Points/gp			Points/gp
Ovi (1st)	1.366​		Matthews (3rd)	1.452​
#10	1.155​	18%​	#10	1.313​	11%​
	Goals/gp			Points/gp
Ovi (1st)	0.793​		Matthews (1st)	0.822​
#10	0.494​	61%​	#10	0.556​	48%​

As far as PP goes, same old story where their roles are so different, since Ovechkin plays further back as a winger on the PP, he shoots from further, and needs to skate less. Really hard to compare PPTOI without also adjusting roles completely.

For ES production though: Even strength scoring has (clearly) been a lot easier in recent years (obvious as goals are up yet PPTOI across the board is down), but compare ES/60 to peers, and Ovechkin was more dominant in both than Matthews was (and I hate ES/60 stats in the first place anyways).

	ES G/60			ES G/60
Ovi (2nd)	1.835​		Matthews (1st)	2.072​
#10	1.358​	35%​	#10	1.582​	31%​
	ES P/60			ES P/60
Ovi (2nd)	3.201​		Matthews (5th)	3.627​
#10	2.911​	10%​	#10	3.483​	4%​

 

[Buck Naked]

Goalies play into goals against and you don’t have to play a PK role to have a defensive impact. In terms of expected goals against and regression analytics he had a strong defensive year.

They absolutely do, but in this case Toronto in 22 actually had better goaltending than Caps in 08.

 

[Regal]

They absolutely do, but in this case Toronto in 22 actually had better goaltending than Caps in 08.

Overall they did, but when Matthews was on the ice, he had a ridiculously poor ES SV% that year. Goaltending is already partly variance, but even moreso in the small sample size behind one player in a single season. And considering it stands out in his career it seems likely that it wasn’t something Matthews was doing that was affecting the numbers

 

[Buck Naked]

Overall they did, but when Matthews was on the ice, he had a ridiculously poor ES SV% that year. Goaltending is already partly variance, but even moreso in the small sample size behind one player in a single season. And considering it stands out in his career it seems likely that it wasn’t something Matthews was doing that was affecting the numbers

A goalie usually don't get worse because the first line gets on the ice. Usually some correlation there if it dips as much as you're saying. We're talking about 1000+ minutes of sample here. It's not that small.

 

[Regal]

A goalie usually don't get worse because the first line gets on the ice. Usually some correlation there if it dips as much as you're saying. We're talking about 1000+ minutes of sample here. It's not that small.

Goalie variance is huge season to season not sure why it’d be odd in part of a season. We’re talking about potential huge fluctuations year to year. In 17-18 for example he had a .925 SV% behind him at ES and in 21-22 it was .868.

 

[CanadienShark]

Ovechkin for sure.

 

[Buck Naked]

Goalie variance is huge season to season not sure why it’d be odd in part of a season. We’re talking about potential huge fluctuations year to year. In 17-18 for example he had a .925 SV% behind him at ES and in 21-22 it was .868.

Season to season, game to game, yes. What I'm saying is that the variance within the scoop of a game, shift to shift, generally isn't that great. So if the first line has a low OISV% but the third line doesn't, I don't think it's only variance because of variance. Look at Bergeron during the same season, for example. While he's on the ice the average OISV% goes up because he's excellent at making it easy for the goalie to make saves, with Matthews the OISV% goes down from the average. But I absolutely agree that Toronto's been having unreliable goalies and that there are also other factors at play here. But it's definitely worth noting. Matthews seems more like a player who creates offense to get out of defensive situations rather than being excellent at defending his own zone.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Easily Ovechkin. Leafs actually had a better record without Matthews in the lineup.

Gaudreau was robbed in 2022. 90 ES points (most in 25 years) +64 (highest since 80s Gretzky).

 

[JackSlater]

Easily Ovechkin, no comparison really. Better in terms of level of play and also more valuable to his team.

I don't know why Matthews has some sort of a label as a two way player, especially in 2022. He didn't kill penalties in 2022 (4 seconds per game) and he was deployed overwhelmingly for offense just like Ovechkin - Matthews's offensive zone starts were basically identical to Ovechkin's (69.9% for Matthews vs 69.8% for Ovechkin).

Matthews was on the ice for significantly more ES goals against (81 ES GA for Matthews vs 66 for Ovechkin) despite Ovechkin playing significantly more ES minutes (1406 to 1274).

The Leafs were giving up more goals per minute with Matthews on the ice, so where is the impact of this alleged defense? Is somebody going to argue that Mike Green plus a bunch of scrubs were somehow an advantage for Ovie in terms of preventing goals against?

It's weird. A lot of people want it to be true and Matthews does well in some shot metrics that will eventually be lost to time but so what? Ovechkin dominated when he was on the ice that year and as you say the other team didn't score that much. Shots don't win games but goals do.

Easily Ovechkin. Leafs actually had a better record without Matthews in the lineup.

Gaudreau was robbed in 2022. 90 ES points (most in 25 years) +64 (highest since 80s Gretzky).

I think I may have had Gaudreau second that year, I don't remember, but definitely ahead of Matthews. That was a bad Hart pick at the time that is only going to look worse as the years go by.

 

[Johnny Tomala]

Ovechkin.

 

[Regal]

Season to season, game to game, yes. What I'm saying is that the variance within the scoop of a game, shift to shift, generally isn't that great. So if the first line has a low OISV% but the third line doesn't, I don't think it's only variance because of variance. Look at Bergeron during the same season, for example. While he's on the ice the average OISV% goes up because he's excellent at making it easy for the goalie to make saves, with Matthews the OISV% goes down from the average. But I absolutely agree that Toronto's been having unreliable goalies and that there are also other factors at play here. But it's definitely worth noting. Matthews seems more like a player who creates offense to get out of defensive situations rather than being excellent at defending his own zone.

I think that’s something to consider for sure, as players might be doing things that lead to a lower OISV%, but I think that’s still subject to variance to some degree as well. If we look at Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals, Matthews was on the ice for 20 more goals against than expected at 5v5. Over the rest of his career combined, he’s given up 18.81 fewer goals than expected. And over the rest of his career combined, he has a .920 OISV% 5v5 while Toronto as a whole has a .921 OISV%. So over the rest of his career, he hasn’t shown to be someone whose OISV% is dramatically different from his team’s or someone who gives up a bunch more goals against than expected, which to me suggests this season was an aberration.

I suppose the question though would be whether we should only focus on results if it’s based on the better season. And I do agree that Matthews is more of a guy who makes good defensive plays in order to create possession that leads to offense rather than someone who really prevents a lot defensively.