Hart Trophy - Prediction

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Homer vote for Suzuki.

Realistically Drai and Kuch deserve it.

I'm not sure you understand the purpose of these polls

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Hellebuyck will win it. Great season for him, and a down year for forwards in a high scoring environment.

 

[GreeningOil]

Leon was fantastic this year. Without him, the Oilers are trying to catch up to Buffalo

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I'd really like to see Kucherov win his second Hart. Dude has certainly earned it. Last year was really razer close between him and Mack

 

[majormajor]

Draisaitl carried the Oilers for most of the year, with McDavid taking an off year and the rest of the roster in shambles. Draisaitl's most common linemates were Podkolzin and either Skinner or Arvidsson. He led the league in goals by a wide margin and would have had many more assists if his most common linemates were Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel.

Kucherov was amazing, but with his usual supporting cast.

Hellebuyck has a very good case. Years ago it was often said that a goalie needed a .930 to have a chance to actually win the Hart. That's what Carey Price and Jose Theodore did. And obviously Hasek before him, who won it in his .930 and .932 seasons (interestingly Jagr won it when Hasek was .937 in 1999).

Here is Hellebuyck's season compared to theirs, relative to league average.

Goalie Save Percentage League Average SP rel LA

	Save Percentage	League Average	SP relative to Average
Hasek	.930	.905	+.025
Hasek	.932	.906	+.026
Theodore	.931	.908	+.023
Price	.933	.915	+.018
Hellebuyck	.925	.900	+.025

By this math Hellebuyck's season is Hasek Hart Trophy level, better statistically than Theodore or Price's Hart Trophy seasons.

 

[bossram]

I think the hockey media has been collectively anointing Hellebuyck this season, so it seems he will win.

I would personally give it to Draisaitl.

 

[TheLegend27]

Draisaitl will win. Who should win are any of Draisaitl, Kucherov or Connor.

 

[Regal]

Draisaitl carried the Oilers for most of the year, with McDavid taking an off year and the rest of the roster in shambles. Draisaitl's most common linemates were Podkolzin and either Skinner or Arvidsson. He led the league in goals by a wide margin and would have had many more assists if his most common linemates were Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel.

Kucherov was amazing, but with his usual supporting cast.

Hellebuyck has a very good case. Years ago it was often said that a goalie needed a .930 to have a chance to actually win the Hart. That's what Carey Price and Jose Theodore did. And obviously Hasek before him, who won it in his .930 and .932 seasons (interestingly Jagr won it when Hasek was .937 in 1999).

Here is Hellebuyck's season compared to theirs, relative to league average.

Goalie Save Percentage League Average SP rel LA

	Save Percentage	League Average	SP relative to Average
Hasek	.930	.905	+.025
Hasek	.932	.906	+.026
Theodore	.931	.908	+.023
Price	.933	.915	+.018
Hellebuyck	.925	.900	+.025

By this math Hellebuyck's season is Hasek Hart Trophy level, better statistically than Theodore or Price's Hart Trophy seasons.

I don’t know if that’s quite the way to look at it. While Hellebuyck obviously shouldn’t need to be as high as the others given it’s a higher scoring era, it’s also harder to maintain a high save percentage the higher you go, as your margin for error becomes lower.

Also, while it doesn’t make a huge difference, the difference in percentage points don’t actually reflect the difference in results. A league average goaltender is giving up 36% more goals than Hasek in ‘97 and 38% more goals than Hasek in ‘98, while league average is giving up 33% more than Hellebuyck. I could see the case for it above Theodore and Price, but those years also had a much weaker forward crop.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t know if that’s quite the way to look at it. While Hellebuyck obviously shouldn’t need to be as high as the others given it’s a higher scoring era, it’s also harder to maintain a high save percentage the higher you go, as your margin for error becomes lower.

Also, while it doesn’t make a huge difference, the difference in percentage points don’t actually reflect the difference in results. A league average goaltender is giving up 36% more goals than Hasek in ‘97 and 38% more goals than Hasek in ‘98, while league average is giving up 33% more than Hellebuyck. I could see the case for it above Theodore and Price, but those years also had a much weaker forward crop.

The percentage difference (as opposed to the percentage points difference) is a good thing to show. I'll add that, thanks.

Edit: I'll have to add it next time I do this type of analysis, there's no quick way to amend that chart with HF tools.

 

[OilWagon]

Hmm going to predict Kuch, hard to deny a guy getting Art Ross two years in a row.

Crazy how much this race mimics the 2022 Hart race with Matthews, Mcdavid and Shesterkin. Top goal scorer with elite possession metrics who missed 10 games vs Art Ross winner vs best goalie.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Draisaitl carried the Oilers for most of the year, with McDavid taking an off year and the rest of the roster in shambles. Draisaitl's most common linemates were Podkolzin and either Skinner or Arvidsson. He led the league in goals by a wide margin and would have had many more assists if his most common linemates were Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel.

Kucherov was amazing, but with his usual supporting cast.

Hellebuyck has a very good case. Years ago it was often said that a goalie needed a .930 to have a chance to actually win the Hart. That's what Carey Price and Jose Theodore did. And obviously Hasek before him, who won it in his .930 and .932 seasons (interestingly Jagr won it when Hasek was .937 in 1999).

Here is Hellebuyck's season compared to theirs, relative to league average.

Goalie Save Percentage League Average SP rel LA

	Save Percentage	League Average	SP relative to Average
Hasek	.930	.905	+.025
Hasek	.932	.906	+.026
Theodore	.931	.908	+.023
Price	.933	.915	+.018
Hellebuyck	.925	.900	+.025

By this math Hellebuyck's season is Hasek Hart Trophy level, better statistically than Theodore or Price's Hart Trophy seasons.

Really speaks to the legend that Hasek is when Hellebuyck is far and away the best goalie this year, and his save percentage is the same as Dominik Hasek's 41 year old season.

 

[HFpapi]

People talk about how rare it is for a goalie to win the Hart but two goalies have won it since the last defenseman to win it 25 years ago.

With no one forward among Kuch/Mack/Drai really standing out, why not Makar?

I think it can be argued he's more crucial to the Avs success than Mackinnon even. 30 goals, 92 points as a dman and good in his own zone. Is this season not at least equal to Prongers?

If Makar isn't good enough to win it this year with no forward really standing out then basically we should acknowledge that a defenseman will never win again unless they win a scoring title like Bobby Orr.

Dmen should be considered more.

 

[Regal]

I thought in 2018 Kucherov should have won the hart. He finished 6th.
I thought in both 2020 and 2021 he should have won the Smythe. He didn't, either year.
I thought last year he should have won the hart. He didn't, he finished 2nd.

Voters keep finding reasons to note vote for him. I think he should win, and I hope he will:

MacKinnon - he slowed down a bit towards the end and got overtaken for points in less games. Also - many Colorado followers are saying that his own teammate was more valuable (Makar) - can't be league MVP if you're not your own team's MVP. Also - the bar to win a hart in consecutive seasons should be higher - voter fatigue alone should bump him out of first.

Draisaitl - if he had played all 82 games I think he might have won. But - he didn't. Kucherov had 6 more games and 15 mopre points. I think that's important enough a gap to bump Draisaitl down from #1.

Hellebuyck. He started the season on fire - and I think there is a LOT of value in starting the season as strong as he did, and in unexpectedly launching Winnipeg to top of standings all year like he did. His biggest problem is that he slowed down a lot. If bring someone in to look at goalie stats at the end of the year without having followed the season, is he even a slam dunk winner above Vasileskvy for a Vezina? He had ~930+ sv% for a while, but finished at 925. I still think he wins the Vezina, but I just don't think he'll win the hart.

Kucherov. I think he should have won last year, but I acknowledge it was a 50/50 race with hi and MacK, as both were deserving. I could see voters wanting to make it up to him. 3 Art Rosses - all against peak/prime McDavid, is quite impressive. I hope he wins.

His advanced numbers are still considerably ahead of the others:

Moneypuck GSAx:

Hellebuyck 39.6
Vasilevskiy 29.2
Thompson 26.0

Evolving Hockey GSAx:

Hellebuyck 49.48
Stolarz 31.20
Montembeault 30.79

Natural Stat Trick GSAx:

Hellebuyck 42.96
Stolarz 29.09
Kuemper 27.70


Also, isn’t the hot start followed by a bit of coasting down the stretch since his team was so good your reasoning for Kucherov in 17-18?

 

[bobholly39]

His advanced numbers are still considerably ahead of the others:

Moneypuck GSAx:

Hellebuyck 39.6
Vasilevskiy 29.2
Thompson 26.0

Evolving Hockey GSAx:

Hellebuyck 49.48
Stolarz 31.20
Montembeault 30.79

Natural Stat Trick GSAx:

Hellebuyck 42.96
Stolarz 29.09
Kuemper 27.70


Also, isn’t the hot start followed by a bit of coasting down the stretch since his team was so good your reasoning for Kucherov in 17-18?

Yes - that's valuable, I literally said that at the start of the paragraph.

But Kucherov did NOT win the Hart in 2018. This thread is about who will win. I think Hellebuyck slowing down in the second half will hurt his hart chances.

 

[Deno]

Dr. Drai will be too busy partying all summer after the Oilers win the Cup when the winners are announced to care one way or another.

LOL!
I'd concentrate on beating LA first.

 

[slapKing]

His advanced numbers are still considerably ahead of the others:

Moneypuck GSAx:

Hellebuyck 39.6
Vasilevskiy 29.2
Thompson 26.0

Evolving Hockey GSAx:

Hellebuyck 49.48
Stolarz 31.20
Montembeault 30.79

Natural Stat Trick GSAx:

Hellebuyck 42.96
Stolarz 29.09
Kuemper 27.70


Also, isn’t the hot start followed by a bit of coasting down the stretch since his team was so good your reasoning for Kucherov in 17-18?

It's interesting how all GSAx stats are different. You would think it's the same across all sites.

 

[bert]

I’m surprised this many people still think Draisaitl. He’s way behind in the scoring race and missed a decent amount of time now. What’s the argument?

Also plays on the same team as Mcdavid. I honestly dont think he should be a finalist. I think Mackinnon had a better season too. Kucherov is my choice but Hellybuyck is gonna win it. Which I also have no problem with.

 

[Three On Zero]

Kucherov
Hellebuyck
MacKinnon
Draisaitl

 

[Regal]

It's interesting how all GSAx stats are different. You would think it's the same across all sites.

They all use different methods to determine shot quality and there’s a few other things like flurry chances that differ (essentially if a goalie is creating chances by giving up rebounds, is he actually better than another goalie holding the puck after the first chance?). I think we’ll never get a fully accurate way of determining quality but I figure if different sources are all coming to the same conclusion, it’s likely the case

 

[Juxta Position]

MacKinnon will win it because the writers have a huge hard-on for him right now, but Draisaitl deserves it.

 

[Toby91ca]

People talk about how rare it is for a goalie to win the Hart but two goalies have won it since the last defenseman to win it 25 years ago.

With no one forward among Kuch/Mack/Drai really standing out, why not Makar?

Just because you have a few guys really close in terms of forwards and hard to pick, doesn't mean you should just ignore those 3 then and go to someone else. Personally, I've watched a lot of Avs games this year and Makar is great, best defenseman in the game in my opinion, but Mack is/was their best player this year....subjective opinion of course......but this is one reason Makar wouldn't be my pick.

But the goalie thing. Helle will and should get votes, but I don't think he should come close to winning....but he might. Personally, why goalies are super, super important, they can only impact one part of the game and that's keeping the puck of their net.....other players can contribute both sides.....but totally get that plenty of forwards have won the award and haven't been good at all at defense. The bigger point with goalies is that it seems like you really need to dominate the competition first and then look at other factors. I get all the advanced stats and I ignore those simply because they are made up with way too many variables that people look at differently. I'll admit I may be a dinosaur there, but I simply hate those stats....similar to "adjusted points"....I stick to what actually happened. Helle had great stats this year and should win the Vezina, but he only finished 2nd in Sv%, so didn't dominate in my mind. If you look at the recent goalie winners (Price led Sv% (.931 vs. .929), Theo led Sv% (.931 vs .925), Hasek led big both years he won.

But beyond those stats, look at the other variables. For each of those goalies, their teams took big jumps in the standings while having bad offense, but also, 1997 - only 2 players with 100+ points, 1998, 1 guy with 100pts, 2002 - only 2 guys with 90 points, #3 had 85pts and 2015 - no one had 90pts, only 5 had 80+. This year, Winnipeg was a decent team last year and took a huge jump to 1st overall, but they went from the 21st best offense last year to the 3rd best offense this year (you didn't see any of the prior Hart winning goalies with offense anywhere near that....and then we also have 6 guys with 100+ points this year. Not saying he can't win, but he would be an outlier vs. those recent examples.

 

[Toby91ca]

MacKinnon will win it because the writers have a huge hard-on for him right now, but Draisaitl deserves it.

Had Draisaitl been able to play the full year, likely a very good chance he wins it, but I think missing the 11 games is going to hurt his chances. He'll get lots of support, but I don't think he'll win. The McDavid factor will likely hurt as well. I get that McDavid wasn't his best for a lot of the year, but still finished with 100pts in 67 games vs. Draisaitl's 106pts in 71 games (same PPG). I wouldn't put too much weight on that, but the 11 missed games seems to be the dagger.