Hart trophy (99.1% complete historical data)

jigglysquishy

Registered User
Jun 20, 2011
8,472
9,380
Regina, Saskatchewan
While the Top 100 may be light on 1977-1987 birth years, spots 101-110 aren't. Both Iginla and Lundqvist are in there, so immediately outside the top 100. Karlsson and Doughty were in the 101-110 as well so 4 modern players immediately outside the top 100.

Karlsson has absolutely played himself into a top 100 spot since the top 100 list.

Bergeron was in the 140s in the top 200 and added two strong Selkes since then. Maybe not enough to hit top 100, but enough to get into the top 125.

1977-1986 birth years were all deeply impacted by the loss of the 2004-05 lockout. It's a full season lost in ages 18-27.

How does Iginla look with a full season in 2004-05? Another top 5 point finish? Top 3 goal finish?

Luongo was 122 and was certainly a Vezina favourite that season.

Datsyuk broke out in 2005-06. Does he do it a year earlier? How does he look with an extra year of prime play on a Cup favourite?

We missed out on a Cup, Smythe, Ross, Harr, Norris, Vezina. At least one guy was going to make significant adds to his career. A half dozen guys would have made some add.

It's the only missed season we've ever had and it acutely impacts guys who were prime aged.

Maybe Kovalchuk or Spezza or Hossa or Thornton or St. Louis or Jagr win a dominant Art Ross? Lidstrom or Pronger or Niedermayer or Chara win a Norris? Hasek or Brodeur or Luongo or Kiprusoff win a Vezina? How do all the Ottawa guys fare if they win a Cup? How do Datsyuk and Zetterberg fare if they win a Cup?
 
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Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,491
15,795
No I wouldn't, because I challenged that specific falsehood in real time. And while it is obviously false, many of your fellow history forum members were good with those types of lies, and even liked the posts in which they were stated - even after the incorrect statements were highlighted. And yes, some folks acknowledged the very basic accessible facts I was providing, so it's not all bad.
Okay. Based on your recollection, HOH regulars called Ovechkin a "shoot only" player, due to their (our) collective bias against Ovechkin. Then you heroically jumped in to set the record straight.

I looked up the first reference to Ovechkin being a "shoot only" player. Guess what? It came from you. It was in this post:

"Shoot only" player...with 500 assists.....over 1/2 APG....and four 50 assist seasons. lol

The search functionality on this website is pretty bad, but this link should take anyone to the search results. (If the link doesn't work, try the search manually, and you'll see). There are a few older references, but they're all the same - an old newspaper quote about Nels Stewart.

Maybe your response is you were trying to summarize HOH's position. But you did that by using a term that, previously, had never been used - not even once - in reference to Ovechkin. And by putting it in quotation marks, you implied it was a direct quote.

So, you posted the bait. Let's see how HOH reacted. In the very next post, Mike Farkas agreed with your characterization of Ovechkin. But then there was some lively discussion from other HOH regulars (in that thread and others), including multiple outright rejections of the "shoot only" label:
  • Theokritos said: "I agree with you the label "shoot only" is an exaggeration that is shortchanging Ovechkin" (link)
  • wetcoast said: "If someone called Ovechkin a shoot only player then that would be incorrect" (link)
  • Dennis Bonvie said ""Shoot only" sounds a lot worse than "shoot first". Clearly a psychological ploy working on the more susceptible (younger) posters' minds." (link)
  • Ted said "I disagreed with the notion that Ovechkin is a shoot only player as he's 105th all time in assists with 572. he should be in the top 80 all time for assists when he's done."
  • sr edler (correctly) said "I never claimed Ovi was a "shoot only" player, that was probably someone else (if that claim was made)." (link)
  • fantomas said "Is it really a problem that Ovechkin is a shoot only player?" (link) (this is ironic since fantomas is a big fan of Ovechkin, and he was one of the posters who seemed most open to the idea that Ovechkin might be a "shoot only player"(link)
There are numerous other posts talking about Ovechkin, many of which condemned the notion that he took too many shots (these posts don't have the direct quote "shoot only", but discuss his general approach):
  • bobholly said "Also - the idea of more shots being bad is ridiculous. If you can get more shots off than the other guy - more power to you" (link)
  • K Fleur said "Yeah the “takes too many shots” thing is kinda dumb. I’m more partial to more balanced offensive players but if you have Ovechkin you tell him to take as many shots as he f***ing wants too." (link)
  • filinski77 said "I think it is worth considering that he [Crosby] has had better finishers and goal scorers to feed the puck too. Watching as many caps games as I do, it's frustrating watching Ovi make really great passing plays just to have the shooter not be able to bury it." (link)
  • Vilica said "The whole implication of your argument is that Ovechkin is somehow "gaming" the system by putting up so many shots, but the fact that he's still distinctly above league average in shooting percentage despite putting up 50% more shots per game than other elite players really negates that line of thought to me." (link)
  • Dr. John Carlson said "I guess it just comes down to whether or not you believe generating a lot more shots is a positive or a negative. I strongly believe it's a positive, because unlike basketball it's very difficult to rack up tons of shots, therefore I rate Ovechkin highly." (link)
  • I said "I don't think Ovechkin taking so many more shots is a bad thing. It's not like a strikeout in baseball (when that unquestionably puts you closer to ending the inning, and the game). If Ovechkin can generate so many shots, good for him - I don't see that as something that hurts his team." (link)
  • The Macho King said "I generally think directing shots toward the net is a good thing, so it's not something I knock Ovi for much. He shoots from fairly far out normally, but those are still dangerous shots coming from him." (link)
  • bobholly said "The best outcome possible in the offensive zone is to score goals. Ovechkin scores the most. Thats a good thing and makes him the best at goal scoring. Its that simple. Does he need more shots to score more goals? Sure looks like it. Glad he's smart enough to realize it and act in kind." (link)
It's safe to say that the characterization of Ovechkin as a "shoot only" player was widely rejected on HOH.

Here's the funny part. To this day, you run around on the main board, complaining about HOH's bias, because of the "shoot only" comment - despite the fact that you were the one that introduced the term! (In the following quotes, "them" is clearly in reference to HOH regulars and/or Top 100 project participants, which is obvious from the context):
  • "And a whole gaggle of them claimed Ovechkin is a "shoot-only" player despite him being top 10 in assists over his career, top 4 in hits, and #1 in goals by an enormous margin" (link)
  • ""Shoot only" is the falsehood here, and that is a direct quote that several history forum regulars and project participants stood behind." (link)
  • "Several of them claimed Ovechkin is a "shoot-only" player despite him being top 4 in hits and top 10 in assists during his career." (link)
  • "Several others maintained that Ovechkin is a "shoot only" player despite his 550 assists" (link)
  • "Multiple project participants stood behind the "shoot only" argument unfortunately. Seeing as how the two main proponents (farkas and exporter) root for a rival team, maybe this argument isn't entirely unbiased. The other proponents of "shoot only" are Canada pride types. If you want a better project, these guys should be encouraged do a better job of setting aside their biases. Or maybe that's a hopeless endeavor." (link)
  • "they wrote for pages and pages about how Ovechkin was a "shoot only" player (despite his 550 assists) and several of the other participants were agreeing with that lie" (link)
  • "Or any of the other homers who claim Ovie is a "shoot-only" player despite leading his generation in points, being top 10 in assists, and top 4 in hits." (link)
And just in case you try to pivot and say that HOH is biased because some of us have described Ovechkin as a shoot-first player, you agreed that's a fair assessment here: "Ovechkin is absolutely a shoot first player. It cannot be argued." (link)

It's hilarious. I'm surprised that none of us caught on until now. You introduced the term that you find so objectionable. "Shoot only" was dismissed by the majority of HOH regulars who discussed it. Yet you still run around the main boards, telling anybody who will listen, that HOH is biased - because of the very term that you made up, and we rejected!
 
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Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,491
15,795
What an incredibly busy year it's been. Normally I update this thread when the results are announced, in late June. It's now late September, and I still don't have time to do a full update.

However, in case anyone finds this interesting, here are the top 25 career leaders (based on the "new" method described in post #37):

1​
Wayne Gretzky4.99
2​
Gordie Howe3.40
3​
Mario Lemieux2.43
4​
Bobby Orr1.98
5​
Sidney Crosby1.93
6​
Connor McDavid1.76
7​
Bobby Hull1.63
8​
Jaromir Jagr1.61
9​
Jean Beliveau1.61
10​
Alexander Ovechkin1.59
11​
Phil Esposito1.54
12​
Bobby Clarke1.53
13​
Dominik Hasek1.22
14​
Mark Messier1.15
15​
Stan Mikita1.15
16​
Guy Lafleur1.14
17​
Maurice Richard1.14
18​
Nathan MacKinnon1.12
19​
Bryan Trottier0.99
20​
Andy Bathgate0.94
21​
Evgeni Malkin0.82
22​
Milt Schmidt0.82
23​
Martin Brodeur0.77
24​
Ted Kennedy0.75
25​
Red Kelly0.74

Some quick comments:
  • The Hart voters have always been biased in favour of forwards. 21 of the 25 names on this list are forwards (including 19 of the top 20). That's so far out of alignment with reality that I'd recommend using this data for forward vs forward comparison only.
  • The data goes back to 1947, so it excludes part of Richard's career. Based on my ballpark estimate, if we were to include all of Richard's career, he'd rank below Clarke, but above Hasek.
  • McDavid is already in 6th place. Yes, I know he's only 27. He's one good season from passing Crosby.
  • Look at how incredibly close it is from 7th to 10th place - less than 3% separates four players. Less than 7% separates 7th through 12th.
  • Keep in mind that a player can earn a significant number of votes with a dominant season. Malkin and Schmidt look great under this metric, but this doesn't show how "thin" their resumes are, after their top two or three seasons.
  • Obviously, the Hart trophy doesn't take playoff performances into account. I think there's still value in this information, but we'd have to subjectively factor in postseason play. For example, I think most of would agree that Beliveau probably should be ranked higher than Hull (because his stronger playoff resume more than makes up for the narrow gap that we have here).
  • The biggest surprise? MacKinnon looks really good here - far better than I would have expected. He "only" has one Hart trophy, but he's been runner up twice, and has also finished 3rd, 5th and 6th. He just turned 28.
 
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