Halfway mark statistical analysis of top 20 point producers

[42]

name(A),
current oiSH%(B),
career oiSH%(C),
current/career oiSH%(D),
games played(E),
total points(F),
PP+SH points(G),
EV points(H),
EV points based on career oiSH%(I),
predicted PP+SH points(J),
predicted EV points per game(K),
predicted total points after 82 games(L)

View attachment 169457

Note that the table above is sorted by predicted total points in reverse order (column L).

We have taken the top 20 point producers as of December 25, 2018.

We start with the premise that oiSH% is a good predictor of EV point production over a period of time long enough to not be skewed by short-term fluctuations caused by hot streaks or slumps. For the purposes of this thread, we take the full 2018/19 season as such a period. We have used career oiSH% instead of another number, such as last 3 years, or last year's oiSH% simply to make this as unbiased an analysis as possible. Are we going to use every top 20 player's oiSH% from last year? Some have really stepped up their game lately. But once we choose to do so, we introduce a personal bias into the analysis since there is no objective way to decide which player's last season's stats are more indicative of predicting this year's performance and which player's career stats are better suited for the task. Hence, we have chosen to use every player's career oiSH%. It is worth noting that the career oiSH% does include this year's oiSH%, that is, it is completely up to the latest game played.

Undoubtedly, some, maybe many, of the top 20 players will have career oiSH% this year. By using every player's career oiSH%, though, we have put all the players in an even keel.

Regarding non-EV production (PP + SH points), I have not used oiSH%, since the available data for it only counts EV production, but have rather made the simple assumption, for lack of better data or a non-biased approach that came to mind, that players will continue producing for the rest of the season at their current rate.

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[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

Thanks for the great work. Very interesting stuff and I think by the time the end of the season rolls around, your table is going to look like a pretty solid predictor of how things will have shaped up.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It's a leaguewide high scoring season after goalie pad changes and increased hooking calls, it stands to reason that the average top end offensive player oiSH% across the board will be higher than previous years no?

 

[42]

It's a leaguewide high scoring season after goalie pad changes and increased hooking calls, it stands to reason that the average top end offensive player oiSH% across the board will be higher than previous years no?

Yes, I thought of that as well. In that case, multiple every player's final predicted points by a factor of 1.x, where x is of your choosing. The relative numbers are still valid, though.

 

[Kevs Security]

My man Johnny T with projected 68 points after 82 games, while he's 37gp and 42p as of now. Talking about a fast decline if I'm ever going to see one. And to think that this fella makes eleven big one's a year!

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yes, I thought of that as well. In that case, multiple every player's final predicted points by a factor of 1.x, where x is of your choosing.

It wouldn't be a flat increase though as your calculations are for ES only, the furthest deviations from average oiSH% would be impacted by a lesser reduction from current pace than the other guys. If someone like Huberdeau isn't taking advantage of the new meta, he's unlikely to suddenly figure it out in the last half of the season.

The Leafs offensive gameplan has been overloaded crease plays for 2 seasons now, they're taking advantage of the pad reduction more than a team that's running a point shot funnel.

 

[42]

My man Johnny T with projected 68 points after 82 games, while he's 37gp and 42p as of now. Talking about a fast decline if I'm ever going to see one. And to think that this fella makes eleven big one's a year!

My man Johnny T with projected 68 points after 82 games, while he's 37gp and 42p as of now. Talking about a fast decline if I'm ever going to see one. And to think that this fella makes eleven big one's a year!

Tavares' "decline" is the result of very low non-EV production (only 8 points) and very high (14.3) oiS%. I think he'll end up getting more than 17 PP+SH points this season so that'll bump up his totals to >70, more likely around 75 points.

 

[42]

It wouldn't be a flat increase though as your calculations are for ES only, the furthest deviations from average oiSH% would be impacted by a lesser reduction from current pace than the other guys. If someone like Huberdeau isn't taking advantage of the new meta, he's unlikely to suddenly figure it out in the last half of the season.

The Leafs offensive gameplan has been overloaded crease plays for 2 seasons now, they're taking advantage of the pad reduction more than a team that's running a point shot funnel.

Well, scoring is higher this season but is it because of PP or EV scoring? I remember reading something about it but can't remember the details now. At any rate, what numbers should I use as an adjustment for this higher scoring times?

 

[BlueBaron]

Tavares' "decline" is the result of very low non-EV production (only 8 points) and very high (14.3) oiS%. I think he'll end up getting more than 17 PP+SH points this season so that'll bump up his totals to >70, more likely around 75 points.

So you are predicting 28-33 points in his next 45 games?

Care to make an avatar wager on that?

 

[42]

So you are predicting 28-33 points in his next 45 games?

Care to make an avatar wager on that?

I did not set out to slight Tavares in the least. It's what the numbers say and I have no personal stake in this at all. The low predicted total number was a surprise to me and as I said, I expect him to do better mainly because he'll score more than just 17 PPP over the course of the season.

 

[The Apologist]

So you are predicting 28-33 points in his next 45 games?

Care to make an avatar wager on that?

Tavares will get 28
Rielly 24
Marner 37

Seems like some pretty big drops in productions. Sounds like the Leafs offence may completely tank in the second half?

 

[42]

Tavares will get 28
Rielly 24
Marner 37

Seems like some pretty big drops in productions. Sounds like the Leafs offence may completely tank in the second half?

Seems that way, if you put any stock in oiSH%. Or their offence may come from other players.

 

[BlueBaron]

I did not set out to slight Tavares in the least. It's what the numbers say and I have no personal stake in this at all. The low predicted total number was a surprise to me and as I said, I expect him to do better mainly because he'll score more than just 17 PPP over the course of the season.

Well your predictions will make a lot of people happy

 

[The Apologist]

Seems that way, if you put any stock in oiSH%. Or their offence may come from other players.

Well, I personally don't but I guess we'll see.

 

[Avelanche]

Tavares will get 28
Rielly 24
Marner 37

Seems like some pretty big drops in productions. Sounds like the Leafs offence may completely tank in the second half?

generally speaking players average 10% but the NHL looks like it is changing and it's a relatively new stat. back in the late 2000s when guys were scoring 100+ consistently oish above 10% was normal, which a lot of that got washed out by the 2010s. for example crosby's oish% is almost 13%, which is above his career average but 10 years ago thta was normal for him.

 

[CH]

I think John Tavares shows a failing in your model. You use his career on ice shooting percentage which largely was established as a New York Islander to forecast his points as a Toronto Maple Leaf. That is probably why he seems like an outlier and people immediately look at his prediction in your model and argue that it doesn't seem reasonable.

 

[The Apologist]

I think John Tavares shows a failing in your model. You use his career on ice shooting percentage which largely was established as a New York Islander to forecast his points as a Toronto Maple Leaf. That is probably why he seems like an outlier and people immediately look at his prediction in your model and argue that it doesn't seem reasonable.

I think there are a few other examples as well. Before last season, based on this oish% model, what would you have predicted for MacKinnon and Rantanen?
Maybe Im just not quite understanding how oiSH% is calculated? At least not properly?

 

[A1LeafNation]

To compensate for the high scoring...I think we need to scale points to last years in order to determine contract values.

#Marner
#Matthews

 

[42]

To compensate for the high scoring...I think we need to scale points to last years in order to determine contract values.

#Marner
#Matthews

Well, I didn't include Matthews since he's not in top 20 in points. Marner is predicted to get 94 points, hardly a number to base high hopes on for a discount

 

[traparatus]

Thanks for putting this together. Quality work.

I have no avatar bet to propose to you. I also have no avatar.

 

[T REX]

Lots of butthurt going on in here.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Well, scoring is higher this season but is it because of PP or EV scoring? I remember reading something about it but can't remember the details now. At any rate, what numbers should I use as an adjustment for this higher scoring times?

Depending on how into it you want to get, I would take whatever cutoff you consider the top offensive players in the league and average out their oiSH this season and either regress to it or compare it to the same figure for last seasons top scorers and multiply everyone's career oiSH by the difference.

I'd also be curious as to how average shot distance factors in to oiSH regression.

 

[NiL8r87]

There’s definitely a flaw based on Tavares’s calculations. He’s never scored so well at this point in the season so to assume he’d end the year 2-3 points away from his career low is crazy. He’s also averaging the highest shot output of his career.

 

[42]

There’s definitely a flaw based on Tavares’s calculations. He’s never scored so well at this point in the season so to assume he’d end the year 2-3 points away from his career low is crazy. He’s also averaging the highest shot output of his career.

The "flaw", as we have discussed, is that the predictive model assumes PP production rate to continue at its current rate and EV production to regress to career average. Tavares has only 7 PPP so far and EV production that is much higher than his career average. Yes, the model is not perfect and some predictions, like that for Tavares, will be obvious in their questionable output.

 

[Mickey Marner]

PSA

When it comes to hockey statistics, two decimal places will always suffice.