That’s certainly possible but getting an extra late 1st in both of the next two drafts and potentially four 2nd round picks can be used as trade ammo for making your lineup a bit stronger for trying to make the playoffs. I don’t think that should be immediately dismissed by the Isles as a potential deal for one spot when you’re still getting the best forward that tends to contribute earlier in this draft or the hometown boy if that somehow wins out which would be absurd but worth noting.
Proposal: Hagens Schaefer Misa NYI SJS CHI
- Thread starter lanceuppercut75
- Start date
Patty Ice
Mighty Luca
Schaefer is not in a tier by himself and certainly not by far. I prefer him to Misa as far as the makeup of their rebuild so far but if Grier is smart, he stands pat. Misa will be just as helpful towards the future.
Any ask beyond the Dallas 1st is not worth it.
I disagree, Schaefer is nearly the unanimous #1 prospect in the draft. You don’t move down from that for anything less than an overpay. Late first round picks simply don’t fill that. If the isles were in a position where they were missing a forward, but were stacked at D than I would consider it. The isles need everything, you take the BPA every time. Almost every championship team has an elite level defenseman and an elite center, I think Schaefer has the potential to be that elite defenseman, I don’t think Misa does (just my personal opinion).
I don't think I've seen one halfway reputable mock draft with Misa as the #1, but feel free to prove me wrong.
Surely some scouts would have Misa as the #1 if things were as close as you present them.
Fatass
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In your opinion, of course. Remember the islanders won four Cups with Potvin anchoring their D. Schaefer has that kind of ceiling. The other top guys in this draft are nice, but not the same tier.
BillR10
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consensus #1 and tier 1 are 2 different things. Bedard and Celebrini were consensusly on tier 1 alone because no one was on their level of talent. Schaefer is the consensus #1 pick but almost all of these people when you look at their tier lists have both players in tier 1. This shows they aren't confident that he's that much better like the last 2 drafts.
Also should mention from MGs comments after the lottery about hed consider a trade presented to him that makes sense, sounds like he'd be more inclined to consider moving down in the draft.
Juxtaposer
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EliteProspects did a mock taking Misa 1st overall a few days. I think they’re more than “halfway” reputable.
miscs75
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Isles are drafting Gavin McKenna. He was just granted exceptional status for the draft.
/thread
/thread
Patty Ice
Mighty Luca
I don't want it to seem like I'm degrading Schaefer but comparing him to Potvin is lofty expectations where everything has to go right in his development. He has the skills to be a top guy but I'm not sure if he can be THE guy.
Gregor Samsa
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Fatass
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Dennis Potvin wasn’t “the guy” until drafted and playing in the National League too. But the islanders have a chance to draft a guy with that profile and ceiling. Imagine islanders fans reaction if the club trades that chance away!
Schaefer has a Potivin ceiling. It’s beyond stupid to pass on that player, especially for guys who, at best, profile as only good. This isn’t a draft with Crosby and Hedman. This is a draft with just Hedman.
Patty Ice
Mighty Luca
I'm not saying that the Isles shouldn't take Schaefer 1st overall. If the Sharks were picking 1st, he'd be my first pick too. However, I don't think the gap between him and Misa is that big. It depends on what your GM values most. I wouldn't fault a GM for valuing a center like Misa or even Hagens for 1OA. My main concern for Schaefer is we didn't get a full season of him with the mono and then collarbone and I have questions on how offensively productive he can be heading into the NHL. That is why I think the Potvin comps are lofty (but understandable from your POV).
Time will tell and Schaefer will dictate the narrative.
I don’t see how getting 2, 30, 33, 56, Edmonton’s 1st in a better draft, and two 2nds in a better draft for one spot is not an overpayment. The few instances that the first pick has been moved during draft season in better drafts, it didn’t cost anywhere near that much. While there is a clear distinction between Misa and Schaefer, they’ve been on the same tier for a while now separate from everyone else. I just don’t think there’s a deal to really be made to move off from 1 because of the optics.
Pure Slaughter Value
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It's not like he leapt from 20 to 1. He was pretty much anywhere between 5-8 in a lot of scouts/bloggers/hfboarders lists last year before any seasons started.
Love Schaefer but a lot of hyperbole based on where scouts rank him.
The thing that would make Schaefer worthy true 1D projection is the hockey IQ and ability to control the flow of the game, not just skating which is easy to see. We saw him dominate but was it just his ability to skate faster than others vs how he broke down and control the game in tight spaces when skating matter less. The latter is tough to evaluate. I think it was there in the Hlinka but it's really small sample especially over the past 2 years and we'd ideally have more data to evaluate his progression when teams game plan for him. Some scouts do see the risk but just think it's worth the risk rather being a slam dunk imo.
You need IQ to really max on skating or else you have the Morgan Reilly and Shea Theodor tier instead of a true 1D like Doughty. Should also discuss the weakness, his production overall wasn't huge. We want to believe and there's basis, but we just didn't see how he would react to long season up and down to see how he adjust to teams playing against him. There's a world his ability to control game and IQ hits a ceiling or take much longer than we thought due to missing critical dev years. He may just end up as top pair minutes eating LD which can be had without spending 1OA or true 1D. Also, he's not very physical, and he gets beat by being tentative by backing up on D despite exceptional skating. Neutral zone and gap control could be improved. He's not projected as shut down D but still good to discuss his weakness not just his public draft stock... A guy like Jackson Smith for example has just as good skating perhaps and more physical but big issue is IQ but in this case it's too soon to rule him out from putting it together just as it's too soon to say Schaefer is Doughty imo. If you just take a 10 game snap shot for Smith at the end of season when he was on a heater, you might have said he looked like Doughty also. Or even Boumediene if you only look at his peak in World instead of NCAA...
Overall though, agree the scouts see more than us to say it's worth the risk but I am not sure it's a slam dunk. We know scouts can be wrong too especially when there is small sample to evaluate for progression.
The thing that would make Schaefer worthy true 1D projection is the hockey IQ and ability to control the flow of the game, not just skating which is easy to see. We saw him dominate but was it just his ability to skate faster than others vs how he broke down and control the game in tight spaces when skating matter less. The latter is tough to evaluate. I think it was there in the Hlinka but it's really small sample especially over the past 2 years and we'd ideally have more data to evaluate his progression when teams game plan for him. Some scouts do see the risk but just think it's worth the risk rather being a slam dunk imo.
You need IQ to really max on skating or else you have the Morgan Reilly and Shea Theodor tier instead of a true 1D like Doughty. Should also discuss the weakness, his production overall wasn't huge. We want to believe and there's basis, but we just didn't see how he would react to long season up and down to see how he adjust to teams playing against him. There's a world his ability to control game and IQ hits a ceiling or take much longer than we thought due to missing critical dev years. He may just end up as top pair minutes eating LD which can be had without spending 1OA or true 1D. Also, he's not very physical, and he gets beat by being tentative by backing up on D despite exceptional skating. Neutral zone and gap control could be improved. He's not projected as shut down D but still good to discuss his weakness not just his public draft stock... A guy like Jackson Smith for example has just as good skating perhaps and more physical but big issue is IQ but in this case it's too soon to rule him out from putting it together just as it's too soon to say Schaefer is Doughty imo. If you just take a 10 game snap shot for Smith at the end of season when he was on a heater, you might have said he looked like Doughty also. Or even Boumediene if you only look at his peak in World instead of NCAA...
Overall though, agree the scouts see more than us to say it's worth the risk but I am not sure it's a slam dunk. We know scouts can be wrong too especially when there is small sample to evaluate for progression.
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I can't speak from personal experience of being there and hearing the hype since Potvin was picked like a month before I was born but from my understanding he was highly touted, putting it in modern context he would have been somewhere between a Jack Hughes and Austin Matthews in terms of hype. The big rumor I heard was Montreal offered the Islanders 4 players to draft first
Schaefer doesn't seem to be that high in terms of hype
Gregor Samsa
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But to hear him compared with Dennis Potvin after a 17 game season is a bit much. Maybe if he had a huge season last year I get it.
As an Islanders fan this is what scares me. Schaefer might end up a very good defenseman but his hype is based on 17 games where scouts didn't get to that point where they would start picking at flaws in his game. I would end up sort of disappointed if Schaefer ends up a solid first pairing(but not #1 defenseman) and we basically pass up on a guy who can be a top 6 center which would be a bigger need, especially when you consider it might be easier finding that first pairing guy over a top 6 center via other methods(ie you are more likely to draft higher end defenseman the later the draft goes)
miscs75
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I wonder what 4 players these were. Based on “discussions” with Habs fans on here, it’s more likely the 4 were filler pieces for the middle-bottom of the lineup. Darche isn’t dropping down that far in the draft for guys who might become 3rd liners.
Given Montreal's MO during that period in the 70s probably guys in their late 20s/early 30s who where passed their prime. I am always curious if they even offered Larry Robinson who they drafted 2 years earlier. From my memory of 80s hockey, most players seemed to hit a wall when they turned 30 with some exceptions(Marcel Dionne comes to mind). it wasn't till the 90s where you see players take a more serious look into off season training to improve your game(Mike Gartner and Gary Roberts seem like 2 of the guys who started this trend)
I think it's ok to be bullish, didn't mean to be negative lol.
The way he moved the puck the PP to the danger area and get his shot through is really encouraging. The way he activates which is all the time looks great because his acceleration is so good it basically creates little risk at OHL level and he'll learn to time it in the NHL but we just don't know how long and how well yet given lack of data. Super promising and a top pairing and PP D is still a great outcome it may just take longer than we think given lack of games and IQ ceiling is hard to measure even for scouts...
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miscs75
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So basically nothing has changed since then. Here’s some roster filler for what we really want.
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Excellent write up. Clear eyed. I feel like he's a worthy 1OA, but that there are risks, and people are probably a smidge breathless due to a lack of reasons to be negative (including us Sharks fans). Isles have the Potvin history to make them drool, and Sharks are absolutely thirsty for a true #1D prospect. I feel like the scout quotes coming out now are more realistically expecting a #2D with #1D upside... Which squares with your write up.
Rehabguy
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This is the kind reasonable reply that I was looking for. This is not a slam dunk. None of the players in any draft are unless they are clearly identified as generational talents such as McDavid. But all things being equal- that being that neither Misa nor Schaefer are slam dunks for their projected potentials, it is still a far less riskier move to take the best player between the two especially if one of the two has the potential to be an elite defenseman.
Having watched Potvin a lot in my mid teen years I could confidently say Schaefer is no Potvin. Potvin was arguably the greatest 2 way defenseman to have ever played the game. Imposing on both sides of the ice he could crush you with his offensive abilities- his shots, his outlet passes, his stickhandling and he could crush you defensively with his merciless mid ice hip checks, poise on the ice, position and high defensive IQ. Schaefer does not play this style of game. He's a totally different breed of player. More offensively minded in the mold of the today's offensive defenseman. Fast skating, puck handling, always joining the rush kind of player. But the impact he can have on the Islander's game can potentially be as equal as Potvin if it all pans out. He can be the glue that holds the team together in just a different kind of way.
It is true that there is a lesser sample of games to accurately analyze Schaefer as a player, but it is pretty amazing that in such as small sample size he had produced so many highlight reels last year in only a handful of games. I think it is safe to say if he was able to play in more games we simply would have seen just more of the same. It could just be that he is coming into his own now having grown a little older and some of the family tragedies may have affected his play the years prior. I think what impressed most scouts and what impresses me is that he's doing things on the ice that you simply can't teach. The powerful skating, the head's up playmaking, the stickhandling, and the hands. Some of today's defender's on the Isles have played on the team for almost a decade and none of them show the elite skills this 17 year old has already shown. You don't need more than 18 games to see that. The talent is obvious immediately and I think that is what excites most scouts. What one scout said just by the virtue he was able to demonstrate his talent in such as short period demonstrated to him that he can decide to control the game at any time if he so chooses to do so "by simple will alone" and that to him that reflects elite talent- the ability to turn it on at any time.
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I can see what you are saying, but, you should always grab the best player. It seems like one amazing superstar a McDavid is better to build around then 2 Evander Kanes or a Kane and a Pelech.
Especially since most of the offers I see being offered is a last 1st.
A player drafted late in the first round will usually turn into a 3rd liner or bust. So, a 3rd liner + for getting the less talented player doesn't seem worth it to me.
If you can get a player like Dickenson like you have been suggesting then yeah it could be worth it.
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