Proposal: Hagens Schaefer Misa NYI SJS CHI

[Pinkfloyd]

One of the reasons why I'm so excited as a long time Islander fan about this years draft is the fact that they have the chance to acquire a player in Schaefer who can become the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. Having an elite defenseman as the cornerstone of your team cannot be emphasized enough and that's why I disagree with the poster who commented that it is better to take a #1C over a #1D if we were speaking of franchise players.

It was actually Islanders who proved that an elite defenseman IS the cornerstone of a Stanley Cup Champion team. Denis Potvin was the first defenseman in the history of the game to be taken first overall in the NHL and after 4 straight Cups most teams recognized and followed Bill Torrey's philosophy of building a team from the defense out.

Many franchise centers have come and gone and never won the Cup. Think of the Sundin's, Alfredssons, Tavares, Matthews the great Maple Leaf and Senator teams in the past. They never won the Cup because they never had a true elite defenseman on their teams. Sens might argue Karlsson but he was drafted 15th, so maybe wasn't really considered elite come draft time.

In fact if you want to look at stats, there has never been an instance where a defender who was chosen high in the draft and later proved himself worthy of that position has not won the Cup. I would say the two predictors that pretty much guarantee a Stanley Cup are a high draft position ( top 6) and winning a Norris Trophy. There has not been a single instance in NHL history where a top 6 drafted defenseman who won the Norris Trophy did not win the Cup as well. Winning the Norris alone apparently is not a guarantee of winning the Cup but you had to be identified as elite from the get go. So basically it goes, if you are recognized at the start of your career as elite by being drafted at the top of the draft and later confirm your elite status by winning the Norris Trophy you are 100% guaranteed to win the Stanley Cup some time in your career.

Since Denis Potvin here are all the Norris Trophy winners and top 6 drafted defensemen from 2024 back to 1973. This is not the only way to win a Cup but it is statistically confirmed that a top 6 draft pick with Norris Trophy is correlated with a 100% chance of winning the Cup. Now again, correlation does not imply causation, but these are great predictors nonetheless.

Cale Makar drafted 4th 1 Stanley Cup
Victor Hedman drafted 2nd 2 Stanley Cups
Drew Doughty drafted 2nd 2 Stanley Cups
Scott Niedermayer drafted 3rd 4 Stanley Cups
Chris Pronger drafted 2nd 1 Stanley Cup
Paul Coffey drafted 6th 4 Cups
Denis Potvin drafted 1st 4 Cups

So if Schaefer proves himself worthy of the 1OA by winning a Norris and he's still with the Islanders. He's pretty much guaranteeing the Islanders a Cup because it apparently has never failed before.

My condolences Shark fans...

You're overlooking quite a few things to come to this conclusion. You know how many top six defensive selections were made in that time frame? It's 80-90 times and you're pointing to 7 guys that hit the benchmark you're putting out there. The odds of Schaefer being an add to that is pretty low

 

[Rehabguy]

You're overlooking quite a few things to come to this conclusion. You know how many top six defensive selections were made in that time frame? It's 80-90 times and you're pointing to 7 guys that hit the benchmark you're putting out there. The odds of Schaefer being an add to that is pretty low

Well he’s going to have to prove himself but I’m going with the expert consensus with this one. I look at the 15 defenseman chosen #1 since 1966 and comparing skill sets I like his odds. I like them a lot.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well he’s going to have to prove himself but I’m going with the expert consensus with this one. I look at the 15 defenseman chosen #1 since 1966 and comparing skill sets I like his odds.

There was plenty of expert consensus in past drafts that still yielded a result that wasn't a Norris and Cup win for that guy like Erik Johnson. Owen Power was pretty much expert consensus too and he's not trending anywhere near that direction. There is a huge risk still associated with choosing a defenseman at this level that tends to fail more than succeed.

 

[Rehabguy]

There was plenty of expert consensus in past drafts that still yielded a result that wasn't a Norris and Cup win for that guy like Erik Johnson. Owen Power was pretty much expert consensus too and he's not trending anywhere near that direction. There is a huge risk still associated with choosing a defenseman at this level that tends to fail more than succeed.

The Isles have nothing to lose at all by going with the consensus #1 pick though he be a defenseman and one that anyone with a pair of eyes can see has elite attributes. If the Avs and Bolts followed your way of thinking they would not have won their recent Stanley Cups. You do realize that 3 of the last 5 Stanley Cups were won as a direct result by teams that chose an elite defenseman at #2 and #4. The Isles are just following their cue- not that they need to. The last time they drafted a D-man at #1 they won 4 cups in a row. Where's the huge risk here exactly?

The only "huge" risk in all of this is IF they don't choose the #1 defenseman available this year they most likely won't win the cup in the foreseeable future. Every scout has chosen Schaefer as the better player over Misa and the eye test easily confirms this. The experts say it's not even close. It's unanimous. Why would they even consider drafting him? The only reason why any team would choose Misa over Schaefer is simply because they have no other choice. There's Schaefer and then there's the rest.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The Isles have nothing to lose at all by going with the consensus #1 pick though he be a defenseman and one that anyone with a pair of eyes can see has elite attributes. If the Avs and Bolts followed your way of thinking they would not have won their recent Stanley Cups. You do realize that 3 of the last 5 Stanley Cups were won as a direct result by teams that chose an elite defenseman at #2 and #4. The Isles are just following their cue- not that they need to. The last time they drafted a D-man at #1 they won 4 cups in a row.

The only "huge" risk in all of this is IF they don't choose the #1 defenseman available this year they most likely won't win the cup in the foreseeable future. Every scout has chosen Schaefer as the better player over Misa and the eye test easily confirms this. Why would they even consider drafting him? The only reason why any team would choose Misa over Schaefer is simply because they have no other choice.

You can pretend like Schaefer can't bust if you want and you can pretend like the history of drafting defensemen high isn't what it actually is. I mean, you're the one that wanted to make it a guarantee to win Stanley Cups based on that pick being the best in the league at their position and winning the Cup. But lots of teams tried that route and lots of times they failed...a lot more than it worked out. That risk is still there for someone like Schaefer. Everyone in this draft has significant bust potential. Ignore it if you choose. There's nothing to be gained by doing so.

 

[Rehabguy]

You can pretend like Schaefer can't bust if you want and you can pretend like the history of drafting defensemen high isn't what it actually is. I mean, you're the one that wanted to make it a guarantee to win Stanley Cups based on that pick being the best in the league at their position and winning the Cup. But lots of teams tried that route and lots of times they failed...a lot more than it worked out. That risk is still there for someone like Schaefer. Everyone in this draft has significant bust potential. Ignore it if you choose. There's nothing to be gained by doing so.

Uh excuse me, but I made it clear he would have to prove himself. And once again using your own logic against you all things being equal and everyone (as you say) in this draft has a significant bust potential why would you choose the lesser player (a forward) to further worsen your chances? As I said in other posts, there's no certainty in any of this all you can do is mitigate the risk and pick the best player available and this there is consensus of who that player is. If it does pan out however and Schaefer turns out to be as good as us Isles fans hope he will be that is a very good predictor for a future Cup win. That's all I'm saying.

 

[matt trick]

I’d prefer Schaefer, but I’m really excited about drafting Misa. Hopefully we can find our Keith, Faber, Weber in the second round at some point in the next five years. In the meantime, keep stacking talent. We’re going to be bottom 5 next year too. Maybe we win the Dupont lotto.

Happy for the Isles in that in sounds like they’ll take the long road. If they wanted to refresh I thought Misa could have been the right pick (Romanov+Dobson+Pulock+Pelech is a good start to a defense). If the Isles are going to sell off Pageau and Nelson, I think taking Schaefer and letting him slowly cook while drafting high for a year or two more makes sense. Schaefer, Eiserman, Nelson, and Ritchie is a good start if they begin a bit of a rebuild.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Uh excuse me, but I made it clear he would have to prove himself. And once again using your own logic against you all things being equal and everyone (as you say) in this draft has a significant bust potential why would you choose the lesser player (a forward) to further worsen your chances? As I said in other posts, there's no certainty in any of this all you can do is mitigate the risk and pick the best player available and this there is consensus of who that player is. If it does pan out however and Schaefer turns out to be as good as us Isles fans hope he will be that is a very good predictor for a future Cup win. That's all I'm saying.

For your guaranteed Cup win, proving themselves involved winning a Norris. There's a lot of variance between proving oneself as a #1 pick and best at your position. For you, proving themselves is doing way more heavy lifting than is warranted for the point. Secondly, all things aren't equal so the premise is already fundamentally flawed but there's typically less risk associated with a forward compared to a defenseman and earlier dividends typically paid. There are plenty of players that pan out as a #1 pick that don't win Cups. You chose to ignore them based on an unreasonably high bar.

 

[Rehabguy]

For your guaranteed Cup win, proving themselves involved winning a Norris. There's a lot of variance between proving oneself as a #1 pick and best at your position. For you, proving themselves is doing way more heavy lifting than is warranted for the point. Secondly, all things aren't equal so the premise is already fundamentally flawed but there's typically less risk associated with a forward compared to a defenseman and earlier dividends typically paid. There are plenty of players that pan out as a #1 pick that don't win Cups. You chose to ignore them based on an unreasonably high bar.

See the bolded? That's what you are missing. This is not a typical draft. It's not very deep but it is not typical that you would find a defenseman at 17 years of with the skill set you see in Schaefer. That's why in THIS case you ignore the old adage, "Oh it's always safer to pick a forward over a defenseman" because it is rare to see this level of skill already developed in a defenseman who is only 17 years old. Although it is true there are plenty of players who pan out as a #1 pick that don't win Cups, it is very rare (only 15 in the history of the game) to draft a defenseman at #1 and those players who are identified early on as being an elite skilled defenseman and prove themselves throughout their career as a true #1 defenseman just so happened to have won the Cup some time in their career. It's just a fact, no judgement there.

 

[Rehabguy]

I’d prefer Schaefer, but I’m really excited about drafting Misa. Hopefully we can find our Keith, Faber, Weber in the second round at some point in the next five years. In the meantime, keep stacking talent. We’re going to be bottom 5 next year too. Maybe we win the Dupont lotto.

Happy for the Isles in that in sounds like they’ll take the long road. If they wanted to refresh I thought Misa could have been the right pick (Romanov+Dobson+Pulock+Pelech is a good start to a defense). If the Isles are going to sell off Pageau and Nelson, I think taking Schaefer and letting him slowly cook while drafting high for a year or two more makes sense. Schaefer, Eiserman, Nelson, and Ritchie is a good start if they begin a bit of a rebuild.

The Isles have a good future for a rebuild. Lot's of crazy things happened last year that makes it a real possibility to have rebuilt a true playoff contender in the next 3-4 years. They should be keeping Sorokin, Barzal, Horvat, Romanov, Dobson, and Holstrom. But last year Eiserman unexpectedly dropped to #20 and the Isles nabbed him and if anyone has seen this kid shoot the puck they would know he's got a special talent. (Of all the players we have in our prospect pool he's the one I'm most excited about.) Then they won the Tsyplakov sweepstakes. Shortly after that they brought in a haul for Brock Nelson with Callum Ritchie and an additional 1st round pick in 2026. To top it all off they win the 2025 with the opportunity to draft a potential franchise defenseman. That's just crazy what happened last year because we didn't have a prospect pool to speak of.

One of the advantages of all the ridiculous injuries the Isles had last year is that they have a lot high value veterans on the team who can bring other picks, younger players, or prospects to complete the retool/rebuild much sooner than later. This was not a tanking team. They should have made the playoffs but key players were injured throughout the year and at one point we lost our entire L side defense and had AHL players take their place. Barzal barely played last season because of freak injuries. I expect the Isles to eventually move on from Pelech, Lee, Cizikas, Pageau, Duclair, Engvall, and Palmieri. These guys can bring in quite the haul.

I like the way the core is shaping up. Barzal, Horvat, Sorokin, Romanov, Dobson, Holstrom, Tsyplakov, Callum Ritchie, Eiserman, Danny Nelson, and Schaefer. They have lots of first round picks coming in the next 3 years and they have assets to trade for role players to support this talent. I think they are going to be in really good shape.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

See the bolded? That's what you are missing. This is not a typical draft. It's not very deep but it is not typical that you would find a defenseman at 17 years of with the skill set you see in Schaefer. That's why in THIS case you ignore the old adage, "Oh it's always safer to pick a forward over a defenseman" because it is rare to see this level of skill already developed in a defenseman who is only 17 years old. Although it is true there are plenty of players who pan out as a #1 pick that don't win Cups, it is very rare (only 15 in the history of the game) to draft a defenseman at #1 and those players who are identified early on as being and elite skilled defenseman and prove themselves throughout their career as a true #1 defenseman just so happened to have won the Cup some time in their career. It's just a fact, no judgement there.

That's not being missed. That's just you looking for any reason to be right. This won't be the first weak draft and it won't be the last and the trends still hold true even in those instances. 2006 is a pretty good example of that as well. It still doesn't change anything regardless of your feelings.

 

[Rehabguy]

That's not being missed. That's just you looking for any reason to be right. This won't be the first weak draft and it won't be the last and the trends still hold true even in those instances. 2006 is a pretty good example of that as well. It still doesn't change anything regardless of your feelings.

There's no right or wrong in any of this is just all opinions. Your insistence that the Isles are taking a big risk by choosing Schaefer, though he be a consensus best player available is simply unfounded and in a ways wishful thinking.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

There's no right or wrong in any of this is just all opinions. Your insistence that the Isles are taking a big risk by choosing Schaefer, though he be a consensus best player available is simply unfounded and in a ways wishful thinking.

There's no avoiding the risk regardless of who you pick. You're the one insisting that there's nothing to lose and are guaranteed a Cup with the pick. lol

 

[Rehabguy]

There's no avoiding the risk regardless of who you pick. You're the one insisting that there's nothing to lose and are guaranteed a Cup with the pick. lol

Oh really.... Is that what I said?

Don't worry we'll take the "huge risk" off your hands.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not interested in moving from first just to clear cap in a season that probably isn’t going anywhere anyway.

So you're going to keep 1st and draft Hagens anyway?

You do this you get Hagens + 30 + 34 + Allan

Or do you really want Schaefer that badly?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh really.... Is that what I said?

Don't worry we'll take the "huge risk" off your hands.

I'm sure the Islanders will. You don't need to pretend like you're doing any of the risk taking.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I know that the Hawks don't really want to have 5 years of Mayfield, but the point of it all is that you're either getting 8 or 9 years of Misa (or more if he stays into his UFA years) or 8 or 9 years of Desnoyers / Martone / Hagens / Frondell. If your GM and scouts truly think that Misa is just a whole level above those other guys, then you're going to be giving up something that you don't want to give up. Islanders have no reason to just give you Misa as a gift. Is being forced to take Mayfield a dealbreaker to get an amazing player? That's the question.

Regarding Connor Murphy... I'm very confident that if the Blackhawks did make this trade and added in Mayfield, the plan for the right side of the D core would be to play Murphy, whichever kid has a better camp out of Levshunov and Rinzel, and Mayfield as your three guys. Later, at the trade deadline (more likely) or offseason (less likely), Murphy is no longer a Blackhawk, and the right D becomes Levshunov + Rinzel + Mayfield. Then it stays that way for at least 3 seasons, maybe longer.

Regarding Blackhawks right handed D situation overall... I don't think the Hawks have any RHD prospects of note right now outside of Levshunov and Rinzel. Even if you draft one this year, that kid won't need waivers until 2030 (or 2029 if it's a late birthday). Between now and 2029 or 2030, Levshunov Rinzel Mayfield doesn't block anybody. So I don't think "clog up the blueline" is accurate, unless you're planning to move left handed kids over the right side. And hey, if something changes down the road and there's somehow a clog going on, there's always an option to buyout Mayfield in 2028 or 2029 if you can't find a way to trade him. It's overall a relatively manageable situation, albeit not an ideal one. If Misa is scoring 80+ points per year for you, I doubt you'll be regretting the trade.

Also, just to touch on the current crop of left handed D kids coming up for Chicago... this trade has Allen being moved out, which leaves Vlasic (obviously), Del Mastro, Korchinski and Kaiser all on the team by next summer. It's only 4 people, so nobody needs to go on waivers and nobody needs to be traded. If you think all 4 of them are too good to ever be the 7th guy sitting in the press box, then you trade one out. I've seen a lot of Chicago fans open-minded to moving Korchinski out, if they can get something valuable and young out of the trade. Either way, Chicago is going to have this same problem with or without adding Mayfield. In fact, the Mayfield trade removes Allen from the equation, which solves half of the problem right there. 4 left D to sort out instead of 5.

It's very likely both Rinzel and Levshunov play most or all of the season with the Hawks this coming season. Levshunov has already played a year in the AHL and 18 games with the Hawks and Rinzel played very well in his 9 games after his college season ended. Murphy would be the 3rd RHD.

There is also 6'8" RHD Louis Crevier who played 32 games for the Hawks last season and is certainly a serviceable 3rd line guy. Nolan Allan and Wyatt Kaiser have also spent time playing on the right side.

I just don't think tying up 5 years of salary cap for a guy that has no future with the rebuilt team and has no value for the interim is a good plan. There must be a better plan that doesn't involve acquiring Mayfield.

 

[seabass45]

So you're going to keep 1st and draft Hagens anyway?

You do this you get Hagens + 30 + 34 + Allan

Or do you really want Schaefer that badly?

OP edited the trade proposal, it was originally just dumping bad contracts to move down.

And it's probably going to be Schaefer.

 

[boredmale]

That atleast gets the Isles out of 2 of the Lou contracts. I understand the reasoning but not sure if either SJS or CHI wants that term.

I think Mayfield might actually get some interest on the trade market(as in give us him for free or something minor to take his contract). A lot of teams are desperate for RHD, even bottom pairing guys who add a lil muscle

Engvall is the worst of the bunch when it comes to contracts simply because of term, despite the fact his caphit it lower than Duclair and I would argue he was more useful this year then Duclair but some team might be will to take on Duclair's 3 year deal in hopes he can be a 50+ point player

Now if I had to assign draft pick value for the negative value they have

Duclair, probably a late 2nd/early 3rd
Engvall late 1st
Not sure where to put Mayfield because I think if the Islanders put him on waivers somebody may bite.

 

[boredmale]

NYI out =
1st overall
42nd overall
MAYFIELD
DUCLAIR
ENGVALL

NYI in =
(#3) Hagens
2025 DAL 1st (29/30/31/32)
34th overall
Nolan Allan
DELLANDREA
BRODIE

Islanders get the guy they want, but they also manage to dump Engvall and move on from the 5 year long commitment to Mayfield. Brodie is terrible but it's only a 1 year contract. Allan is a decent add-on. Dellandrea is a low commitment reclaimation project worth trying out.

Personally I try for the 2026 late first and Brodie to me is a non starter. The whole point of clearing capspace is to give us room to make a splash in the UFA market or a trade.

All that being said take Brodie out, if the Islanders could have another move lined up that requires some or all of that extra 10M in capspace I strongly consider it, grant you I am higher on Hagens than most Islander fans on this board. For starters I see him ending up at least at a Nick Suzuki level and I do see some value for marketing and PR purposes. Also while Schaefer is an intriguing selection, I think he hasn't played enough games to expose his warts yet.

 

[Rehabguy]

I'm sure the Islanders will. You don't need to pretend like you're doing any of the risk taking.

Well just to let you know every team that has won the Cup in the past 6 years all chose a D-man within the top 4 draft slots.

Pieterangelo 2019 drafted 4th
Hedman 2020 drafted 2nd
Hedman 2021 drafted 2nd
Makar 2022 drafted 4th
Pieterangelo 2023 drafted 4th
Ekblad 2024 drafted 1st and right now he’s aiming for his 2nd Cup

I’m sure they regret the huge risk they took.

 

[Rehabguy]

Personally I try for the 2026 late first and Brodie to me is a non starter. The whole point of clearing capspace is to give us room to make a splash in the UFA market or a trade.

All that being said take Brodie out, if the Islanders could have another move lined up that requires some or all of that extra 10M in capspace I strongly consider it, grant you I am higher on Hagens than most Islander fans on this board. For starters I see him ending up at least at a Nick Suzuki level and I do see some value for marketing and PR purposes. Also while Schaefer is an intriguing selection, I think he hasn't played enough games to expose his warts yet.

Why should we assume there are enough warts not to choose him when there’s no evidence of significant problems. It’s possible but I wouldn’t think like that.

It’s a bigger risk to go against the consensus #1 pick and choose Hagens. It’s possible he’s the better player but based on expert opinions he’s not. Experts could be wrong though.

 

[boredmale]

Why should we assume there are enough warts not to choose him when there’s no evidence of significant problems. It’s possible but I wouldn’t think like that.

It’s a bigger risk to go against the consensus #1 pick and choose Hagens. It’s possible he’s the better player but based on expert opinions he’s not. Experts could be wrong though.

All things being equal we take Schaefer, but the right package of picks, prospect or cap dumps could change my mind mainly because of that point. Assuming we don't go out and sign Mitch Marner(which is a pretty good assumption) I think another top 6 center with offensive skill is a big need for this team given that Horvat and Barzal seem to be a good duo that works.

Probably more a case that I envision Eiserman and Hagens (hopefully) tearing it up like they did in junior which is way to tempting. That being said who knows Eiserman might work good with Barzal as well, so maybe best to get off that idea of we need Hagens.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

I just don't think tying up 5 years of salary cap for a guy that has no future with the rebuilt team and has no value for the interim is a good plan. There must be a better plan that doesn't involve acquiring Mayfield.

Hmm. Yeah I forgot Crevier, but outside of his size, he doesn't seem special. Could trade him for a pick.

There may be a better plan that doesn't involve Mayfield, but depending on how Darche sees it, that could potentially mean that the plan also doesn't involve Misa. Which, hey. Maybe that's 100% okay. It really just depends on how Chicago GM and scouts see Misa Frondell Desnoyers Martone Hagens. Maybe they don't even want to trade up at all. Maybe they don't think Misa is worth all the hastle. That's fine too.

 

[Rehabguy]

All things being equal we take Schaefer, but the right package of picks, prospect or cap dumps could change my mind mainly because of that point. Assuming we don't go out and sign Mitch Marner(which is a pretty good assumption) I think another top 6 center with offensive skill is a big need for this team given that Horvat and Barzal seem to be a good duo that works.

Probably more a case that I envision Eiserman and Hagens (hopefully) tearing it up like they did in junior which is way to tempting. That being said who knows Eiserman might work good with Barzal as well, so maybe best to get off that idea of we need Hagens.

I could see Schaefer tearing up the league feeding Horvat and Eiserman as well. That’s the beauty about Schaefer he’s very gifted offensively as a defender.