Proposal: Hagens Schaefer Misa NYI SJS CHI

[BillR10]

"Dahlin isn't right handed so I'd rather have Svechnikov at 2 than trade up."

That's not an exact comparison, but surely you understand the point I'm trying to make.

Completely not comparable since Svechnikov is a winger. Wingers are a lot easier to find throughout the draft. Now if he was a legit 1C with the season Misa just had and your team is stocked with LHD, why would you not take the 1C. Especially when neither has really separated himself as a guaranteed 1 over the other.

As for this year, this isn't a "I'd rather have Misa at 2". This is if the sharks had pick 1 I'd be happy if they took Misa over Schaefer with pick 1 with thr depth they have at LHD moving forward. If Misa goes 1 and the sharks end up with Schaefer, cool I'm okay with the sharks getting one of the 2 top talents in the draft but Id rather them get Misa. There's no need to package additional 1sts to move up 1 spot for something that isn't a glaring need. The Sharks only glaring need right now is RHD. That's it. They have a really bright future everywhere else. Ultimately they can't lose either way so why give up assets for something that's not going to help with the only glaring need.

 

[saintunspecified]

I mean, your suggestion is more off base than the original. Nazar to move up two spots? Gtfo lol

First of all - no doubt about this. Nazar is worth a TON.

And like others have mentioned, if they even entertain moving down teams will know they plan on taking Hagens. So there’s basically no leverage.

I agree with you that NYI will probably take Schaefer. But this just is not reasonable. If you're a GM, it's your job to listen to offers. And if you're a GM that wants Schaefer, it's your job to make offers. The proposition that talking or listening locks anyone into making a decision without regard to cost and value isn't supported by either logic or evidence.

Even if one were tempted to make an unwarranted assumption about what NYI's plans based on what they listen to, there's just as much reason (maybe more) to believe that NYI may attempt to trade into the 3rd-5th pick in a deal that would not involve the 1st overall (e.g. possibly involving Dobson). So obviously there's opportunities for various discussions about value without it becoming evident that NYI intend to trade down.

As for the 1C vs 1D argument that's going on:

- It's really franchise D vs franchise C we're talking about - not only a top line C/D but a top 10-15 center or D.

- The current choice for 1st overall between Schaefer and Misa is more like the choice between Doughty and Stamkos specifically than anything more general. I admit there are disanalogies (Misa isn't as highly regarded as Stamkos was, Schaefer didn't have a full pre-draft season like Doughty did). I would have picked Doughty in 2008.

 

[Rehabguy]

Fox, McAvoy and Josi I would say are safely in conversation of elite talent taken well out of the top 5 of their drafts and thats just naming 3 when theres more. It's a lot harder to pull a Braden Point at center outside of the top 5. It's simply because Centers are drafted like QBs in football. They tend to go higher up in the draft because everyone wants a top center and knows they don't drop in drafts like a dman or winger so teams will trade up and take some earlier than expected.

We've given you examples of the past drafts. You can go through and look yourself if you'd like but what we are saying is true. Centers go early in drafts always where other positions tend to fall more often. Yes it's not "easy" to pull a 1d later in the draft but it's more plausible to get one than it is to get a 1C is the point.

I'm not denying that top centers are often taken early in the draft, but I'm arguing that in the rare occasion when a defender is identified (ranked by scouts) as a potential true #1 D they are almost always taken at that position. Dahlin, Makar, and Hedman were all ranked among the top 5 picks overall and went in those respective positions at the draft. Same with the greats like Potvin, Orr, and Bourque.

Adam Fox was ranked 50th and slated to go the third round, McAvoy was ranked 27th and actually moved up in the draft, Josi was ranked in the later rounds as well but ranked 6th amongst European Skaters. These players did not manifest themselves as true #1D because their development time was longer and because of that they are often chosen in later rounds or later in the draft. This has been my point all along.

Schaefer would never fall out of the top 5 and should go 1OA because that's always the sensible thing to do given the rarity of true #1D. He has been identified as an elite talent so you do what every team has done thus far and you take him at the top of the draft.

 

[SjMilhouse]

I'd give 2nd, Dallas 1st, and Edmonton 1st in 26 (or our 2nd round pick in '25) to move from 2 to 1 so sure

 

[Rehabguy]

It isn’t when it is put in its proper context and not misrepresented as you seem to have a habit of doing right now. That is in comparison to a 1C. The reason why it happens is because it’s clearer with forwards earlier on than it is with most defensemen. I agree that clearly elite talents on defense get taken early as well but that happens considerably less frequently for many reasons. The biggest being that it takes longer to grow into that role than it does for a center to do their role.

That’s not misinterpreting cause and effect.

The main reason being that it's extremely rare to find an elite talent at D. That's it. End of story.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Isles should take Schaefer as there is no Celebrini type in this draft. Misa could be a good/great first line center, but he's not like Celebrini, Matthews (threw up in my mouth a little), McDavid, Eichel, etc. He's more like a Tavares/Marleau which are extremely good/great players but they aren't franchise players.

Schaefer looks he could be the next Niedermayer.

I say this as Sharks fan, who initally and casually rooted for the Isles before there was a team in San Jose (Cow Palace).

Schaefer would be amazing for the Sharks, but I think the Isles will do the correct move and draft Schaefer. Schaefer proably isn't ready for two years, but he'll be a great cornstone franchise piece.

The Isles just need to figure out how they will move forward (whether that is a retool/rebuild). IMO, they should lock down Dobson and look to upgrade 1C if possible.

 

[Rehabguy]

Isles should take Schaefer as there is no Celebrini type in this draft. Misa could be a good/great first line center, but he's not like Celebrini, Matthews (threw up in my mouth a little), McDavid, Eichel, etc. He's more like a Tavares/Marleau which are extremely good/great players but they aren't franchise players.

Schaefer looks he could be the next Niedermayer.

I say this as Sharks fan, who initally and casually rooted for the Isles before there was a team in San Jose (Cow Palace).

Schaefer would be amazing for the Sharks, but I think the Isles will do the correct move and draft Schaefer. Schaefer proably isn't ready for two years, but he'll be a great cornstone franchise piece.

The Isles just need to figure out how they will move forward (whether that is a retool/rebuild). IMO, they should lock down Dobson and look to upgrade 1C if possible.

It is extremely hard to win the Cup without a true #1C and true #1D. Just as Denis Potvin was the cornerstone of the Islanders in the 80's we can only hope that Schaefer can fill his shoes. Teams have tried to win the Cup with all out offense but most ended up looking like today's Leafs.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Dickinson, Muk, Cagnoni, Wallenius are all LHD that will be NHL worthy with Dickinson looking to be that top pair LHD after the season he just finished. If Schaefer was an RHD which is the sharks weakness in the system then I'd say pony up what it would take but he's not. Therefore I'd rather have Misa in this draft.

Difference between being NHL worthy and good

 

[impaaaaaact]

Wingers, sure, but it is nearly impossible to get a franchise center outside of the top-5 of the NHL draft and those players do not get moved. Thornton and Eichel are the only ones in the last 20 years, and Eichel had circumstances.

Meanwhile, like 50% of legitimate #1 NHL defensemen come from outside the top-10 of the draft, and most from outside the top-5. You aren’t wrong that it’s harder and takes longer to develop them, but the point is that you don’t need a top-5 pick to get a #1D and you very much do to get a true franchise center.

Edmonton traded for Ekholm and Walman and got Bouchard at like 8th overall. Carolina got Slavin outside the first round. Harley, Karlsson, and Morrissey were mid-1st round picks. Florida got Forsling off waivers and traded for Jones. Hughes was taken 6th and is better than the defenseman drafted 1st overall in his draft year (Dahlin). Fox wasn’t a 1st round pick. Jackson LaCombe came out of nowhere, Brock Faber was a second round pick, Roman Josi too, Mackenzie Weeger was like a seventh rounder. Obviously your Doughtys, Hedmans, Dahlins, Heiskanens, and Makars were top-5 picks, but the point is that a lot of true #1D are acquired outside the premium draft spots.

Meanwhile, star centers are not. Here’s every single NHL center I could think of who is, has been, or may become true #1Cs, and I went very liberal on the definition of “true #1C” to prove the point (bolded are guys I think are undeniable):

Top-5:
McDavid
Matthews
Mackinnon
Draisaitl
Crosby
Malkin
Toews
Backstrom
Hughes
Hischier
Pettersson
Bedard
Carlsson
Fantilli
Celebrini
Beniers
McTavish
Stutzle
D. Strome
Eichel
Tavares
Duchene
Cooley
Smith
Byfield

Top-10:
Scheifele
Kadri
Zibanejad
Horvat
Lindholm
Monahan
Couture

Rest of 1st round:
Kopitar
Suzuki
Thomas
Barzal
Larkin
Miller
Johnston
Thompson
Hertl

2nd or later:
Aho
Hintz
Point
Bergeron

Basically, it’s nearly impossible to get franchise centers outside of the top-5 of the NHL draft. So there is an opportunity cost associated with drafting a defenseman in the top-5 if there is a potential star centerman available. And in short, that is the only reason the Isles may (and should seriously) consider Misa over Schaefer.

Did you happen to compile the same list for 1Ds?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The main reason being that it's extremely rare to find an elite talent at D. That's it. End of story.

No it’s just rare to find it at their age. You’re way oversimplifying the issue.

 

[Rehabguy]

No it’s just rare to find it at their age. You’re way oversimplifying the issue.

You never heard of Occam's Razor or the law of parsimony.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You never heard of Occam's Razor or the law of parsimony.

I have heard of it. I don’t think you citing that holds any merit here.

 

[Rehabguy]

I have heard of it. I don’t think you citing that holds any merit here.

Well I think I already rested my case.

This was the argument by the poster:

"Basically, it’s nearly impossible to get franchise centers outside of the top-5 of the NHL draft. So there is an opportunity cost associated with drafting a defenseman in the top-5 if there is a potential star centerman available. And in short, that is the only reason the Isles may (and should seriously) consider Misa over Schaefer."

Sorry but this is just a bunch of recent historical cherry picking and statistical mumbo jumbo. And you are talking to an Islander fan whose team chose a defenseman named Denis Potvin at 1OA who was the cornerstone to one of if not the greatest dynasties in North American sports history captaining 19 consecutive playoff victories and 4 straight championship wins a feat not accomplished by any other North American sports team. On the forward side he had one greatest star centermens to play the game Hall of Famer Bryan Trottier who was drafted at 22nd of the first round.

Off the top of my head I can think of another great Dynasty team the Detroit Red Wings who had Pavel Datsyuk one of the greatest centers to play the game who was chosen in the 6th round 171st overall and Henrik Zetterberg chosen 210th overall in the 7th round. You don't get anywhere closer than top 1C than these 2 multi-Cup winning centers.

The argument is very flawed. That said, I can't think of any player who was touted as a potential franchise #1 elite skilled defenseman ever being drafted anywhere but at the top of his draft class because they are essentially a unicorn. It is very rare for a defenseman to be ranked at the top of his draft class and if you find one there you take him.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well I think I already rested my case.

This was the argument by the poster:

"Basically, it’s nearly impossible to get franchise centers outside of the top-5 of the NHL draft. So there is an opportunity cost associated with drafting a defenseman in the top-5 if there is a potential star centerman available. And in short, that is the only reason the Isles may (and should seriously) consider Misa over Schaefer."

Sorry but this is just a bunch of recent historical cherry picking and statistical mumbo jumbo. And you are talking to an Islander fan whose team chose a defenseman named Denis Potvin at 1OA who was the cornerstone to one of if not the greatest dynasties in North American sports history captaining 19 consecutive playoff victories and 4 straight championship wins a feat not accomplished by any other North American sports team. On the forward side he had one greatest star centermens to play the game Hall of Famer Bryan Trottier who was drafted at 22nd of the first round.

Off the top of my head I can think of another great Dynasty team the Detroit Red Wings who had Pavel Datsyuk one of the greatest centers to play the game who was chosen in the 6th round 171st overall and Henrik Zetterberg chosen 210th overall in the 7th round. You don't get anywhere closer than top 1C than these 2 multi-Cup winning centers.

The argument is very flawed. That said, I can't think of any player who was touted as a potential franchise #1 elite skilled defenseman ever being drafted anywhere but at the top of his draft class because they are essentially a unicorn. It is very rare for a defenseman to be ranked at the top of his draft class and if you find one there you take him.

Your rested case argument is their argument is wrong based on relevant information but by what happened to your team 40+ years ago. That’s not the convincing logically airtight response you think it is. The argument may be flawed to a degree but compared to yours, it’s much more grounded in the reality of the current game as it is played and managed.

 

[Rehabguy]

Your rested case argument is their argument is wrong based on relevant information but by what happened to your team 40+ years ago. That’s not the convincing logically airtight response you think it is. The argument may be flawed to a degree but compared to yours, it’s much more grounded in the reality of the current game as it is played and managed.

Oh please…

You think the Avs want to do a redo with Makar at #4? Or the Bolts with Hedman at #2? Is that recent enough for you?

 

[Sharksfan66]

I'd give 2nd, Dallas 1st, and Edmonton 1st in 26 (or our 2nd round pick in '25) to move from 2 to 1 so sure

Would you move Musty, Chernyshov, and Misa for Schaefer? Because that feels like the kind of thing you're suggesting here.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh please…

You think the Avs want to do a redo with Makar at #4? Or the Bolts with Hedman at #2? Is that recent enough for you?

They’re recent enough but you want to argue cherry picking and not by who are 1’s at these positions and where they were drafted.

 

[BillR10]

Difference between being NHL worthy and good

And which one of them do you think will be bad lol. I only mentioned ones considered top prospects in the NHLs top farm system. I left out people like Havelid or Thrun.

 

[BillR10]

I'm not denying that top centers are often taken early in the draft, but I'm arguing that in the rare occasion when a defender is identified (ranked by scouts) as a potential true #1 D they are almost always taken at that position. Dahlin, Makar, and Hedman were all ranked among the top 5 picks overall and went in those respective positions at the draft. Same with the greats like Potvin, Orr, and Bourque.

Adam Fox was ranked 50th and slated to go the third round, McAvoy was ranked 27th and actually moved up in the draft, Josi was ranked in the later rounds as well but ranked 6th amongst European Skaters. These players did not manifest themselves as true #1D because their development time was longer and because of that they are often chosen in later rounds or later in the draft. This has been my point all along.

Schaefer would never fall out of the top 5 and should go 1OA because that's always the sensible thing to do given the rarity of true #1D. He has been identified as an elite talent so you do what every team has done thus far and you take him at the top of the draft.

If that's the case the Isles should just take the next Bobby Orr and run. We'll be more than happy with SJ getting Misa who has been identified as a top line center.

 

[Cas]

Dickinson, Muk, Cagnoni, Wallenius are all LHD that will be NHL worthy with Dickinson looking to be that top pair LHD after the season he just finished. If Schaefer was an RHD which is the sharks weakness in the system then I'd say pony up what it would take but he's not. Therefore I'd rather have Misa in this draft.

Thats a list of four lottery tickets.

 

[Patty Ice]

Thats a list of four lottery tickets.

By that logic, so would Schaefer. So would any prospect that hasn't earned his full stripes in the NHL.

 

[WSS11]

Would you move Musty, Chernyshov, and Misa for Schaefer? Because that feels like the kind of thing you're suggesting here.

I personally wouldnt move Chernyshov but I’m extremely high on him. I’d just take the Saginaw duo if that’s the ask. I’d move Musty and the Dallas 1st along with the 2OA if that’s what it took. Otherwise, I’m happy drafting Misa and rolling Celebrini-Misa down the middle for the next 10+ years

 

[Cas]

By that logic, so would Schaefer. So would any prospect that hasn't earned his full stripes in the NHL.

Of course, obviously. We have no reason whatsoever to be considering our current talent pool as a determinant for who we should be drafting.

 

[Patty Ice]

Of course, obviously. We have no reason whatsoever to be considering our current talent pool as a determinant for who we should be drafting.

Fair point. Having that group would not deter me from drafting Schaefer over Misa. Just like it wouldn't deter me from drafting Misa because we have Celebrini, Smith, and Bystedt.

Although I could say I have a slight preference towards Schaefer because that center group has more substance to it.

 

[Patty Ice]

I'm happy with either so in a sense I could say that I'm happy we aren't in the Sophie's choice position. Grier doesn't have to overthink it...unless he takes Martone