Habs vs Wings

[Pavels Dog]

Looks like Raymond isn't trending for 90+ points anymore like a poste arrogantly claimed earlier in this thread. "Trending significantly better than Suzuki". No, I don't think so.

Is it arrogant to say what scoring pace a player is on?
To be fair, he has legitimately not looked himself since 4 nations. Given that he had over a full year of playing PPG+ hockey and looking fantastic I think it's fair to say the last month and a half might be him playing through injury or simply having a slump which happens to everyone.

look at linemates. Raymond's never had a significant ppg lead over his line mates.

Not sure that's true. Since the start of last year he has 117 points in 119 games. That's 17 points more than Larkin and the other winger hasn't stayed consistent enough to truly compare but none of Debrincat/Perron/Rasmussen/Kasper/Söderblom/Tarasenko have scored at that level.

Good on Raymond for being a part of a historic PP (that is gonna be impossible to repeat)

Incredibly poor argument . Are Hutson and Laine just getting the benefit of Montreal's PP being improved this year? They have no part in it?

Being a strong PP player has been part of Raymond's DNA since before he was drafted. It's a major strength of his game. He is, imo, the best PP guy on Detroit. Kane is up there too, but Raymond is more consistently driving the bus on that unit. The argument that he can't produce at ES was proven wrong last season, and the argument that their PP would not repeat it's good performance was proven wrong this season.

Also if you wanna talk about trends, Slafkovsky is trending better than Raymond at the same age. (would love to see you wiggle your way around this lol)

50 points in 82 games vs. 57 points in 82 games
47 points in 71 games vs. 45 points in 74 games

I'd say that's pretty close. Slafkovsky is trending well. He's a different type of player than Raymond. Not sure we have to bring down one to say we like the other better.

 

[Fatass]

Git to go with the Habs. They have Hutson. The Wings don’t have that level of D man. Imo that’s the big difference between the clubs.

 

[HabsMD97]

Incredibly poor argument . Are Hutson and Laine just getting the benefit of Montreal's PP being improved this year? They have no part in it?

Being a strong PP player has been part of Raymond's DNA since before he was drafted. It's a major strength of his game. He is, imo, the best PP guy on Detroit. Kane is up there too, but Raymond is more consistently driving the bus on that unit. The argument that he can't produce at ES was proven wrong last season, and the argument that their PP would not repeat it's good performance was proven wrong this season.

That's literally not what the argument I'm making is. The argument is that Detroit's pp this year is gonna be almost impossible to repeat because it's on pace (or was) to be the best of all time, you literally can't repeat that. The oilers had a historic PP a couple of years ago and they couldn't repeat it the following year and thats with McDavid and Draisaitl who Detroit obviously doesn't have anything close to. It went from 32% to 26%. No matter how good the players are we haven't seen such consistency on the PP be repeatable. In fact you're already starting to see DET PP regress. Thus, as good as Raymond is on the PP (he's definitely a driver there) he won't be able to produce like that every year which is why it's important to look at 5v5 points because that is much more repeatable.

Concerning Raymond's 5v5 production last year, that was the only year he produced above 1.74 pts/60. Coincidentally, last year's Red Wings had the 2nd highest 5v5 shooting% in the NHL behind the Canucks. And guess what, both Detroit and Vancouver's shooting% this year cratered. Raymond being good 5v5 1 out of 4 years is not very convincing, especially since it just so happened the year Detroit was the 2nd luckiest team shooting wise 5v5. DET scored the 8th most goals at 5v5 in the NHL last year and quick look at their roster proved it made no sense. It was driven by shooting% luck which has predictably regressed this year. Until Raymond can repeat his 5v5 production from that year, it's hard to chalk it up to anything other than him simply riding the wave of a high team wide sh%.

 

[HabsMD97]

50 points in 82 games vs. 57 points in 82 games
47 points in 71 games vs. 45 points in 74 games

I'd say that's pretty close. Slafkovsky is trending well. He's a different type of player than Raymond. Not sure we have to bring down one to say we like the other better.

The poster I quoted was saying that Raymond is better than Suzuki because he's putting up more points at the same age so I brought up Slafkovsky. If you look at raw point totals its close, but if you look at 5v5 data ages 19-20 it's not:

Slafkovsky Raymond
TOI : 2146.35 2143.75
GP : 153 156
G: 37 40
A : 60 62
PTS : 97 102
Pts/gp : 0.63 0.65

5v5 G : 26 26
5v5 A : 42 28
5v5 PTS : 68 54
5v5 g/60 : 0.73 0.73
5v5 pts/60 : 1.9 1.51
1st Assist : 20 13
1st Assist/60 : 0.56 0.36



Slaf is much more productive 5v5. They score exactly the same rate of goals but in terms of primary assists, it's slafkovsky by a wide margin. If you look at Slaf's stats from the moment he got put on the 1st onwards, (he was playing on the 3rd line at the start of last year) his productions goes up to 2.02 pts/60 at 5v5, which is considerably higher than Raymond's.

In terms of PP, Slaf plays the net front so he doesn't get many puck touches on the PP and isn't in a position to pick up a lot points. Last year when he was playing the right flank he had 15 points, this year because they added on of the best PP goal scorers in the league, he's been moved to the net front and only has 9 points. He's still adjusting to playing that position, I'm sure he'll eventually get there though.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Concerning Raymond's 5v5 production last year, that was the only year he produced above 1.74 pts/60. Coincidentally, last year's Red Wings had the 2nd highest 5v5 shooting% in the NHL behind the Canucks. And guess what, both Detroit and Vancouver's shooting% this year cratered. Raymond being good 5v5 1 out of 4 years is not very convincing, especially since it just so happened the year Detroit was the 2nd luckiest team shooting wise 5v5.

"1 out of 4 years" is a weak argument when talking about players this age, especially considering Raymond's breakout the last 2 years. 1 out of 3 years Slafkovsky was an absolutely brutal player, we don't hold that against him anymore.
Likely, the truth about Raymond's production split between ES/PP lies somewhere in between last year and this. If he was so "lucky" last year, and Detroit's PP is so "unsustainable" this year, what do you view Raymond as going forward? A 50 point player? I'm sure even you agree that's unrealistic. ES production will come as the team improves at ES. Under Lalonde they frequently got 10-15 shots on goal per game, that's not a Raymond thing, that's a team thing.

In terms of PP, Slaf plays the net front so he doesn't get many puck touches on the PP and isn't in a position to pick up a lot points.

I.e. Raymond is a better PP player. Simon Edvinsson has more ES points than Luke Hughes. Marco Kasper has more ES points than Will Smith. There are obvious reasons neither of those Detroit players get put in position to "pick up a lot of points" on the powerplay, just like Slafkovsky.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Pavel has said it all, but yeah I’ll also add Slaf is looking great - he could definitely end up better than Raymond, I’m not denying that. Funny that MTL fans assume we’re just going to be as hard core homers as them.

 

[bud12]

Pavel has said it all, but yeah I’ll also add Slaf is looking great - he could definitely end up better than Raymond, I’m not denying that. Funny that MTL fans assume we’re just going to be as hard core homers as them.

As a habs fan, the chance of Slaf being better than Raymond pts wise are slim. Not the same kind of player. But he's definitely the type of players the habs missed and should be a big piece of the puzzle going foward if he can develop properly

 

[HabsMD97]

"1 out of 4 years" is a weak argument when talking about players this age, especially considering Raymond's breakout the last 2 years. 1 out of 3 years Slafkovsky was an absolutely brutal player, we don't hold that against him anymore.
Likely, the truth about Raymond's production split between ES/PP lies somewhere in between last year and this. If he was so "lucky" last year, and Detroit's PP is so "unsustainable" this year, what do you view Raymond as going forward? A 50 point player? I'm sure even you agree that's unrealistic. ES production will come as the team improves at ES. Under Lalonde they frequently got 10-15 shots on goal per game, that's not a Raymond thing, that's a team thing.


I.e. Raymond is a better PP player. Simon Edvinsson has more ES points than Luke Hughes. Marco Kasper has more ES points than Will Smith. There are obvious reasons neither of those Detroit players get put in position to "pick up a lot of points" on the powerplay, just like Slafkovsky.

I agree Raymond is a better PP player at this point of their career, I was merely explaining why Slaf's PP production is down this year compared to last year and why there's a good chance his PP production will pick up later on in his career. When it comes to analyzing young players you cannot do a proper analysis without understanding their context.

I like Raymond, he's a fun player to watch. I think he continues being a 75-80 point player in his prime. His Even Strength production will likely pick up and PP production will go down. In order for him to become a 90 point player (not impossible) he's going to have to maintain this year's PP production while also getting his 5v5 production from last year back.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Still trending way better than Suzuki at the same age lol

Suzie is trending up linearly though. Its rarely the case. Raymond might have capped for all we know.

The only thing that is a certainty is that right now, Suzuki > Raymond.

 

[Dotter]

Still think he's a bum?

Did something happen? Norris already handed out? Must have missed it.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Suzie is trending up linearly though. Its rarely the case. Raymond might have capped for all we know.

The only thing that is a certainty is that right now, Suzuki > Raymond.

If by right now you mean the last 2 months, yeah.

If by right now you mean this season, eh, arguable.

And sure. Suzuki might have just had his career season and be a 50 pt player from now on. You can make any nonsensical prediction you want. Raymond is 22yo and has improved every year, there’s zero reason to think he won’t keep getting better.

 

[Big Trout]

Did something happen? Norris already handed out? Must have missed it.

You said he was a ''flash in the pan'' and his ncaa numbers were irrelevant, now he need a norris for you to admit you were wrong?

Meanwhile he's about to win the calder and likely finish as the second highest scoring rookie D of all time, I'm sure you'll come to your senses in the next couple seasons.

 

[NikolaTesla]

If by right now you mean this season, eh, arguable.

Really not arguable. If you reversed their stats you would even use your favorite hyperbole and say that Raymond is "significantly" better than Suzuki.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Really not arguable. If you reversed their stats you would even use your favorite hyperbole and say that Raymond is "significantly" better than Suzuki.

Huh? 79 vs 73 points is inarguable?

My point was always about at the same stage. I’m not mentally deranged, I know Raymond isn’t significantly better than Suzuki today. But I believe he absolutely will be.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Look I Don't know if the habs make it in or not, It's very VERY close between them and the Rangers.

But regardless of if they make it in or not they are MILES ahead of Detroit.

I Don't know if I would take Detroit in a single area if we did a head to head comparison.

I don't think Montreal has the guy in net but even there I'd take Montreal.

I don't think It's even close

 

[bud12]

Huh? 79 vs 73 points is inarguable?

My point was always about at the same stage. I’m not mentally deranged, I know Raymond isn’t significantly better than Suzuki today. But I believe he absolutely will be.

So you think Raymond will be significantly be better than a Selke caliber player?

 

[NikolaTesla]

Huh? 79 vs 73 points is inarguable?

My point was always about at the same stage. I’m not mentally deranged, I know Raymond isn’t significantly better than Suzuki today. But I believe he absolutely will be.

Funny because i asked the same question 2 weeks ago (Who is better now? Suzuki or Raymond) and you answered "Easily Raymond" and they had the exact same point total.

So to you, when they have the same points, Raymond is easily better but I can't say that when a 2-way center that has 6 more points than a PP winger is unarguably better I am in the wrong? Double standard?

 

[RedHawkDown]

Funny because i asked the same question 2 weeks ago (Who is better now? Suzuki or Raymond) and you answered "Easily Raymond" and they had the exact same point total.

So to you, when they have the same points, Raymond is easily better but I can't say that when a 2-way center that has 6 more points than a PP winger is unarguably better I am in the wrong? Double standard?

I already explained that my point was at the same time in their careers. I’m not a dipshit. Of course Suzuki is not worse than Raymond as a player today, and was not at any point in the season. That’s obvious.

That’s my fault for not answering the question clearly. I’ll own that.

 

[RedHawkDown]

So you think Raymond will be significantly be better than a Selke caliber player?

Yes.

Panarin is better than Hischier.

It’s my opinion. I believe Raymond still has much more to show based on what I’ve seen of him since junior. You’re free to disagree. No need to act like it’s lunacy to expect the 23yo 4th OA who is currently PPG to continue to get better and better as he hits his prime.

 

[bud12]

Yes.

Panarin is better than Hischier.

It’s my opinion. I believe Raymond still has much more to show based on what I’ve seen of him since junior. You’re free to disagree. No need to act like it’s lunacy to expect the 23yo 4th OA who is currently PPG to continue to get better and better as he hits his prime.

Yeah, its your opinion but the odds arent in your favor. There is a huge gap between a ppg player and a 100pts+ player.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah, its your opinion but the odds arent in your favor. There is a huge gap between a ppg player and a 100pts+ player.

Yes you can say this about every single young player in the NHL and you’ll be right more often than not. The odds are also not likely that Demidov becomes a PPG player, because there is a huge gap between a passable NHL top 6 F and an elite PPG forward. But I still think it’ll happen, and I’m sure you do too.

Raymond has better numbers to this point of his career than Kucherov did.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Yes.

Panarin is better than Hischier.

It’s my opinion. I believe Raymond still has much more to show based on what I’ve seen of him since junior. You’re free to disagree. No need to act like it’s lunacy to expect the 23yo 4th OA who is currently PPG to continue to get better and better as he hits his prime.

But you can't act surprised when someone doesn't agree with your homer take right?

 

[NikolaTesla]

Raymond has better numbers to this point of his career than Kucherov did.

Kindda the point im making. "Trend" doesnt mean much. There is 1% chance that Raymond even comes close to being as good as Kucherov, yet he is "trending" better than the russian.

 

[bud12]

Yes you can say this about every single young player in the NHL and you’ll be right more often than not. The odds are also not likely that Demidov becomes a PPG player, because there is a huge gap between a passable NHL top 6 F and an elite PPG forward. But I still think it’ll happen, and I’m sure you do too.

Raymond has better numbers to this point of his career than Kucherov did.

This is a pointless argument. Slafkovsky have similar number than Mackinnon after 3years so what? Kucherov is near generational and Im ready to bet that Raymond never come close to what Kuch have done during is career

 

[RedHawkDown]

But you can't act surprised when someone doesn't agree with your homer take right?

Where did I act surprised? I simply have disagreed with Habs fans throughout this thread. I would wager your take is just as homer as mine. It's not unreasonable to believe it though.